Transcript Title of the presentation - Environment and Sustainable

Bishkek, 7th of December 2009
Training Workshop:
Baseline Study of the Kyrgyz Power Sector
for Clean Development Mechanism
Presentation III:
Case Study for Carbon Finance of Hydropower
Johannes Laubach
Content
2
1
CDM Power Sector Baseline Azerbaijan
2
Mil Hydropower Station CDM Project
3
Gilanchay Cascade Hydropower CDM Project
Johannes Laubach
e-mail: [email protected]
1
3
CDM Power Sector Baseline Azerbaijan
Johannes Laubach
e-mail: [email protected]
Power Sector Azerbaijan (2006)
Name of station
Commissioning
Year
1. Azerbaijan TPS
1981 - 1990
2. Ali-Bayramly TPS 1962 - 1968
3. Severnaya TPS
1960
4. Severnaya TPS (CC) 2003
5. Sumgait CHP No. 1 1959 - 1962
6. Sumgait CHP No. 2 1966 - 1972
7. Sumgait CHP No. 3 (CC) 2004
8. Baku No. 1 (GT)
2000
9. Baku CHP No. 2 (CHP)
1954
10. Gandja
1962
11. Nakhichevan GT 1994
Total on thermal power stations
12. Shamkir HPS
1982 - 1983
13. Yenikend HPS
2000 - 2003
14. Mingechavir HPS 1953 - 1954
15. Yarvara HPS
1957
16. Araz HPS
1971
17. Tarta HPS
1975
18. Small sized HPS various
Total on hydropower stations (HPS)
Total on energy system4
Johannes Laubach
e-mail: [email protected]
Fuel
Gas/oil
Gas/oil
Gas/oil
Gas
Gas/oil
Gas/oil
Gas/oil
Gas/oil
Gas/oil
Gas/oil
Gas
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
Hydro
5,761
Design capacity
[MW]
2,400
1,050
150
400
200
220
32
106
24
75
64
4,721
380
150
401.6
16.5
22
50
19.4
1,040
Actual capacity
[MW]
1,900 1)
840
80
350
32
106
25
3,333
(81%)
340
120
300
11
20
791
(19%)
4,124
Ex-ante Simple Operating Margin
Simple OM: Weighted-average emission rate excluding low-operating
cost and must-run power plants:
2002:
0.76 t CO2/MWhe
2003:
0.73 t CO2/MWhe
2004:
0.70 t CO2/MWhe
2005:
0.70 t CO2/MWhe
Average 2003 - 2005: 0.72 t CO2/MWhe
=> Azerenerji gradually improves efficiency of thermal power generation
=> OM will rapidly decrease in close future
=> “ex-ante” OM clearly preferable to “ex-post” OM
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5
Johannes Laubach
e-mail: [email protected]
Ex-ante Build Margin
5 most recently commissioned power plants:
Commissioned 2003
2004
2005 Average Weight
[t CO2/MWhe]
AZERKHIMIYA CC CHP
2003
YENIKEND 1 - 4
2000/03
SHIMAL (SEVERNAYA) CC 1 2003
BAKU-1 GT-1, GT-2
2000
AZERBAIJAN DRES 1 - 8 1981-90
Weighted average
0
0.43
0.75
0.82
0.75
0.46
0
0.43
0.70
0.81
0.72
0.46
0
0.46
0.77
0.81
0.72
[%]
0.46
0
0.44
0.74
0.81
0.73
1 *)
3
16
5
76
=> Next power station to be commissioned (Sumgait CCPP, 517 MW, 2007?!)
will kick Azerbaijan DRES out of the Build Margin
=> Build Margin will decrease to 0.4 - 0.5 t CO2/MWhe very soon!!!
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6
Johannes Laubach
e-mail: [email protected]
Ex-ante Combined Margin
2003
2004
2005
Average
t CO2/MWhe
Operating Margin
Build Margin
Combined Margin
0.73
0.75
0.74
0.70
0.72
0.71
0.70
0.72
0.12
Weight
%
0.72
0.73
0.72
50
50
50
=> 0.72 t CO2/MWhe was applicable for validation in 2006!
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7
Johannes Laubach
e-mail: [email protected]
2
8
Mil Hydropower Station CDM Project
Johannes Laubach
e-mail: [email protected]
Technical Data
Dam & reservoir
Dam height:
26 m
Water reservoir:
55,000 m³ => “run-of-river”
Reservoir surface (estimated):
5,000 - 10,000 m² ???
Hydropower station
Design flow:
100.5 m³/s
Design water head
35 m
Design capacity:
3 x 9.4 = 28.2 MW
Average annual generation:
143 mln kWh/yr
Construction time:
3 years
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9
Johannes Laubach
e-mail: [email protected]
Emission Reductions
Baseline emissions 1st crediting period
143,000 MWh/yr x 0.72 t CO2/MWhe = 103,000 t CO2/yr
Project emissions
Power density:
28.2 MW : 10,000 m² = 2,800 W/m² > 10 W/m²
=> 143,000 MWh/yr x 0 t CO2/MWhe = 0 t CO2/yr
Emission reduction 1st crediting period (ex-ante)
103,000 t CO2/yr - 0 t CO2/yr = 103,000 t CO2/yr = 103,000 CERs/yr
Emission reduction 2nd/3rd crediting periods (estimated)
143,000 MWh/yr x ~0.4 t CO2/MWhe = ~57,000 CERs/yr
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10
Johannes Laubach
e-mail: [email protected]
Economics and Impact of Carbon Finance
Parameter
Unit
Value
Capital expenditures (CAPEX)
mln €
35
Years 1 to 3
33%/year
mln € / yr
1.2
years
40
CAPEX disbursement
Operational expenditures (OPEX)
Project lifetime (technology)
Varied parameter
Internal Rate of
Return (IRR)
Levelized electricity
generation cost
%
€/MWhe
Project activity without CDM
7.4%
37.2
Project activity with CDM @ 7 €/CER
8.8%
33.3
Project activity with CDM @ 10 €/CER
9.4%
31.6
Project activity with CDM @ 20 €/CER
11.3%
26.1
11
11
Johannes Laubach
e-mail: [email protected]
3
12
Gilanchay Cascade Hydropower CDM Project
Johannes Laubach
e-mail: [email protected]
Technical Data
Cascade of 18 “small” Hydropower plants
Design capacity:
43.4 - 52.2 MW
Average annual generation:
194 - 231 mln kWh/yr
Construction time:
6 years, but 1.5 years per plant
(commissioning ~ 2010 - 2015)
13
13
Johannes Laubach
e-mail: [email protected]
Emission Reductions
Baseline emissions 1st crediting period
~200,000 MWh/yr : 0.89 x 0.72 t CO2/MWhe = ~161,000 t CO2/yr
No project emissions
Emission reduction 1st crediting period (ex-ante)
~161,000 t CO2/yr = ~161,000 CERs/yr
Emission reduction 2nd/3rd crediting periods (estimated)
~200,000 MWh/yr : 0.89 x ~0.4 t CO2/MWhe = ~90,000 CERs/yr
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14
Johannes Laubach
e-mail: [email protected]
Economics and Impact of Carbon Finance
Parameter
Unit
Value
Capital expenditures (CAPEX)
mln €
101.1
CAPEX disbursement
years 1 - 5
20%/yr
Operational expenditures (OPEX)
mln € / yr
2.6
years
40
Project lifetime
Varied parameter
Project activity without CDM
Project activity with CDM @ 7 €/CER
Project activity with CDM @ 10 €/CER
Project activity with CDM @ 20 €/CER
Internal Rate of
Return (IRR)
Levelized
electricity
generation cost
%
3.5%
4.3%
4.6%
5.7%
€/MWhe
83.2
78.9
77.1
71.0
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15
Johannes Laubach
e-mail: [email protected]
Thank You!
Average OM method yields low baseline emissions and
consequently low credits !
16
Johannes Laubach
e-mail: [email protected]