Transcript Document

The Skills Gap
Lord Baker of Dorking C.H.
The economy is changing
250
Net growth in job numbers, 2010-20 (thousands)
200
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
-200
Science,
Science,
Skilled
engineering and engineering and agriculture L3
technology
technology
professionals
technicians
(Level 4)
Skilled metal,
electrical,
electronics L3
Skilled
construction L3
1000
An even bigger story: the baby
boomers are retiring
800
600
400
200
0
-200
Replacement
demand
(Thousands)
Huge numbers of people will be
needed by 2020
• Between 2012 and 2020, we need –
– 830,000 SET professionals (degree level)
– 450,000 SET technicians (levels 3 and 4)
• SET = science, engineering and technology
• Figures include growth + replacement demand (mainly to
replace baby boomers planning to retire)
But supply won’t meet demand
• Demand for science, engineering and
technology graduates: 104,000 per year
between 2012 and 2020
• Number of new graduates taking UK jobs in
SET occupations: 64,000 per year
• Shortfall: 40,000 graduates per year
Education is out of step
with the economy.
Schools, further education colleges, training
providers and universities are failing to deliver
the skills we need today, let alone tomorrow.
Higher education has grown
rapidly – but not in all subjects
% Increase in first degrees 2002-12
Humanities
Business/admin
Creative arts/design
Physical sciences
Engineering/technology
Computer science
0
20
40
60
80
100
Many graduates are under-employed
% in non-graduate jobs in December 2011, 30 months
after graduating
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Creative arts &
design
Law
Engineering &
technology
Subjects allied to
medecine
Apprenticeships have grown – but
the numbers are unbalanced
Number of 16-24s
starting
apprenticeships in
2011/12
% change since
2010/11
Business, admin and the law
80,320
14.5%
Retail and commercial enterprise
63,670
7.6%
Health, public services and care
49,910
10.5%
Engineering and manufacturing
38,100
6.8%
Britain’s plight
Only 4% of 15 year olds in the UK want
careers in engineering and computing ...
… placing the UK 35th out of 37 countries in
an OECD survey.
Other countries value vocational
education more highly …
% young people on vocational courses
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Hungary
UK
Denmark
Germany Netherlands
Austria
…and have lower youth unemployment
% of under 25s who are unemployed
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Hungary
UK
Denmark
Germany
Netherlands
Austria
The connection is obvious
100
80
60
40
20
0
% young people
on vocational
courses
% youth
unemployment
UK and Austria
UK
Austria
Participation in vocational
upper secondary education,
2010
32.1%
76.5%
Under 25s unemployment
rate, 2010
19.6%
8.8%
We are wrong to delay technical
education
• In Austria, technical education starts at 14.
• In England, most technical education starts at
16 – two years behind.
Too many young people start – rather
than finish – level 2 at 16
Number of QCF Level 2 qualifications achieved by
17 and 18 year olds, 2011-12
200,000
150,000
Age 17
100,000
Age 18
50,000
0
Level 2
QCF: Qualifications and Curriculum Framework
The time has come to
rethink 14-18 education
What is a UTC?
•
•
•
•
•
•
Independent state school
14-18 age range
All-ability intake
Sub-regional
Commitment of a local university
Employers involved from the start in shaping
and delivering the curriculum
Curriculum
14 - 16
60%
General &
bridging
40%
Technical
Post-16
40%
General &
bridging
60%
Technical
Key characteristics of UTCs
• Technical and academic education are integrated
• Practical work is as highly valued as academic work
• Longer days (8-30 to 5) and school years (36-40
weeks)
• Enrichment for all
• Curriculum projects devised by employers and
universities
• Progression routes include HE, FE, Apprenticeships
and employment
What’s more …
• Every student who left the JCB Academy last
summer had somewhere to go –
– Apprenticeships
– Further education
– University
– Work
Four types of 14-18 college:
– UTCs
– Liberal arts colleges
– Career colleges
– Performing arts and
sports colleges
Thank you