Transcript The International System

The World System
Economic and
Military
Constraints
I. The World System
A.
B.
Composed of states
Characteristics
1. Number of units – More than 200
a.
b.
Increased Uncertainty
Increased War?
2. Distribution of Power -a.
b.
Major vs. Minor Powers – Few major,
many minor
Concentration of Power – Power projection
limited to US, handful of others
3. Political Organization
a.
Anarchy vs. Hierarchy --
b. Polarity and Leadership
GREAT POWERS
UNIPOLAR WORLD
MIDDLE POWERS
SMALL POWERS
GREAT POWERS
BIPOLAR WORLD
MIDDLE POWERS
SMALL POWERS
GREAT POWERS
MIDDLE POWERS
SMALL POWERS
MULTIPOLAR WORLD
c. Alliances and Polarization
3
3
5
3
9
2
5
5
WEAKLY POLARIZED
MULTIPOLAR
WORLD
5
3
9
2
5
5
STRONGLY POLARIZED
MULTIPOLAR
WORLD
III. How does the World System
affect States?
A. Power Transition Theory:
Assessing the Risk of Major War
1.
Assumptions
a. System Level: World is Hierarchic
DOMINANT POWER
MAJOR POWERS
MIDDLE POWERS
SMALL POWERS
Region Level: Multiple hierarchies
model
b. Dyad Level: Challenger vs.
Dominant Power
Preemptive war
by Dom
War by Challenger
to change SQ
Challenger
P
o
w
e
r
Dominant
Unstable
t
c. State Level: What creates
transitions?
i.
ii.
Existence of challenger: status quo
evaluations
Rise of challenger: development curve
2. Measuring Power
a.
b.
GNP  Ultimately reduces to
population!
Relative Political Capacity – Taxes
3. Evidence
a. Modern System
1920-2000
Modern System: Summary
b. The Long, Long Run: Population
and Power
4. Predictions
a. Population: India Rises, EU Falls
b. Economics: China Overtakes US
in 20 to 50 years
c. Effects of Population and
Productivity on Economic Strength
B. Hegemonic Stability Theory:
Assessing the Global Economy
1.
Assumptions: Primarily Economic
Theory
a. International Economic Cooperation
Prevents Depressions (Bonus: Also
prevents world wars)
c. Public Goods Elements
i. World Economy as “Public Good:”
Cannot exclude countries from existing
in a prosperous world
ii. Problem: World economic stability
costs money (currency stability, free
trade/lost jobs, military intervention,
international law, etc.) – but no one
wants to pay since their contributions
won’t make a difference!
iii. Free Riding: Enjoying benefits of
stable world economy without paying
costs
d. Hegemony Defined
When a single state…
i. CAN pay the costs of world economic
stability
ii. MUST pay those costs or stability
won’t be provided
iii. is WILLING to pay those costs because
the benefits to itself outweigh the
costs
e. State-level change: “Law of
Uneven Growth”
2. Historical Applicability

Theory doesn’t apply before 18th
century, according to HST
proponents
• Why?
a. Economic Growth is Recent
1,000%
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
–100
11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th 17th 18th 19th 20th 21st
Century
b. Increasing Importance of Trade
3. Evidence
Free Trade
a.
i.
Napoleonic Wars: Challenge to British
Hegemony (Continental System) – Consistent
ii. 1815-1840: Increased Protectionism: Corn
Laws, etc – Inconsistent
iii. 1840s-1850s: Rise of free trade in Britain -Consistent
iv. 1860s-1880s: Rise of free trade in Europe, i.e.
Cobden-Chevalier Treaty (1860) -- Consistent
v. Free Trade and US Hegemony:
US leads after WW II
AVERAGE
US TARIFF
YEAR
RATE
---------------1940
36%
1946
25%
1950
13%
1960
12%
1970
10%
1975
6%
1984
5%
AVERAGE
WORLD
TARIFF
---------40%
-25%
17%
13%
-5%
b. Economics and War: Mixed
Evidence
Europe's GNP growth rate, 1856-1913
12.0
10.0
8.0
Five-year moving average
6.0
4.0
2.0
-4.0
-6.0
-8.0
-10.0
1906
1896
1886
1876
1866
-2.0
1856
0.0
c. US Hegemonic Decline? The
End of the Cold War and Trade
III. A Clash of Civilizations?
“The fundamental source of conflict in this
new world will not be primarily ideological
or primarily economic. The great divisions
among humankind and the dominating
source of conflict will be cultural. Nation
states will remain the most powerful
actors in world affairs, but the principal
conflicts of global politics will occur
between nations and groups of different
civilizations. The clash of civilizations will
dominate global politics. The fault lines
between civilizations will be the battle
lines of the future.”
Samuel P. Huntington
A. Assumptions
1.
2.
Conflict over values  not power or resources!
Key value divide changes over time
a.
b.
c.
3.
4.
Colonialism and Nationalism: West vs. the Rest
20th Century Ideologies: Fascism vs. Democracy,
Communism vs. Capitalism
Post Cold War: Cultural Identities
Key actors = civilizations, not states
Culture Clash  Internal / External Conflict
a.
b.
Religion = Indivisible Stakes
Identity trumps other concerns
5. The Map of Civilizations
a. Religion determines some
World
civilizationalReligions
borders
Major religion
(CIA Fac tbook 2001)
Buddhis t
(11)
Hindu
(3)
Jew is h
(1)
Mus lim
(49)
Orthodox
(11)
Other
(9)
Protes tant (46)
Roman c atholic
(56)
b. “Identity” determines the rest



West – Latin America divide: ethnicity?
Sinic civilization: Originally called
“Confucian.” What is the basis for this
bloc?
African civilization: Essentially what was
left after drawing other civilizations
The Global Politics of
6. Alignments determine
Civilizations
civilizational
conflicts
Japan
Orthodox
(Russia)
Islam
African
West
Latin
American
Hindu
(India)
More Conflictual
Less Conflictual
Sinic
(China)
Figure 2.1
7. Universalism = Conflict
a.
b.
No “universal” political desires
Modernization ≠ Westernization
B. Implication: Internal Unity = Strength
1.
Don’t be
multicultural
a. Enemies will
try to
foment
intrasocietal
conflict
b. Beware
immigration
from other
civilizations

2. Test: Does Immigration Cause
Internal Violence?
a. Europe
Does High
%
foreignborn
cause
more
conflict?
b. Immigration by Region: Doesn’t
Match “Hot Spots”
c. Areas of inter-civilizational migration:
Which civilizations are “weakened?”
C. Implication: Pushing Democracy
and Capitalism = Civilizational Conflict
1. Democracy is Western value system:
Separation of church and state, rule of law, social
pluralism, representative bodies, individualism
2. Market capitalism is Western:
Competition, property rights
3. Test: Is Democracy “Western”?
a. World Values Survey – Questions about democracy,
human rights, politics, religion, etc.
Key Dimensions
Democratic Performance:
• Democracies are indecisive and have too much
squabbling
• Democracies aren’t good at maintaining order
Democratic Ideals:
• Democracy may have its problems but it is better than
any other form of government
• I approve of having a democratic political system
4.0
4.0
5.0
4.4
4.5
4.5
4.5
6.9
6.8
6.9
6.5
6.6
6.5
6.5
6.3
6.3
6.0
6.0
6.0
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3.0
3.0
7.0
7.0
5.0
5.1
5.2
5.1
4.9
5.0
5.0
Approval of democrat ic ideals
b. Results (Islam) –
i. Democratic Performance/Ideals: No Difference!
ii. Other surveys
reveal…

Important
differences do
exist within
Islamic civilization
c. Results (Asia)
i. “Asian Values” and Democracy
ii. “Asian Values” and Capitalism
iii. Summary: Support for Free
Market Democracy
D. Implication: “Fault Lines” = Conflict
(Fits Early 90s well, Not Before/After)
1. Counter-examples: Civilizational
Unity?

Many Wars Within Civilizations:
• Orthodox Christians (Georgia), Latin
Americans (Ecuador-Peru), Muslims
(Iran, Iraqi Kurds, Iran-Iraq, Syria,
Pakistan, Afghanistan, etc), Buddhists
(Burma), Hindus (Nepal, JVP in Sri
Lanka), Africans (Rwanda, DRC) etc.

Which difference matters most?
2. “Islam Has Bloody Borders”
3. Internal Military Disputes: Is Islam
Prone to Intra-Civilization Violence?
Table reveals:
• West = more internal
peace
• Sinic = less internal
peace
• Buddhist = less internal
peace
• Others, including Islam,
unrelated to rate of
intra-civilization
disputes
4. Demographics of Islam
•
What percentage of Arabs are
Muslim?
• About 90%
•
What percentage of Muslims are
Arab?
• About 20%
•
The largest Muslim country is…
• Indonesia
•
Where do Muslims live?
• Only 33% live in the Middle East
• 25% in South Asia, 20% in Africa
5. Which civilizations fight the most?
Islamic civilization has plenty of conflicts….
…but other civilizations have more “civilizational” conflicts!
6. Tests: Statistical evidence on
“Fault Lines”
a. Little evidence of cultural wars
1819-1989
b. Post-1989:
i. States of different civilizations LESS
likely to fight than states of same
civilizations

Controls for contiguity, power, democracy
ii. Ethnic diversity ≠ civil war

Controls for economic growth
iii. Islam has not precluded democracy
(rights)
c. Did end of Cold War increase
conflict?
i. No -- Large Decrease in conflicts
ii. No change in ratio of civilizational
to non-civilizational conflicts
iii. No change in ratio of civilizational
to non-civilizational state failures
d. Are inter-civilizational conflicts worse?
E. Implication: Power Shift
a.
b.
West will decline: Demographics and
Development (recall Power Transition
predictions)
Beware an Islamic-Sinic alliance
F. Do people in different civilizations
have important value differences?
Important: Value differences
mean democracy may produce
foreign policy differences!
1. West vs. Islam: Gender/Sexuality =
Division, Not Religious Leadership!
2. Gender:
West vs.
the Rest
3. Categorizing major values
a. Tradition vs. Secularism and
Survival vs. Self-Expression
b. Regional value differences exist
c. …But Country Trumps Religion!
d. Simplest explanation: Income!
IV. Treaties and Trade: Ties That
Bind?
A.
Alliances: Limited
Influence
•
Allies much more
likely to
intervene, but
probability still
low (1 in 4
chance)
War
occurs…
Allied
Not
Allied
Intervene,
YES
25% 2%
Intervene,
NO
75% 98%
B. Trade Blocs: Constraints or Tools?
US FTAs: Trade Policy or Security Policy?
Year
Country
1985
1989
1994
Israel
Canada
Mexico (NAFTA)
2001
2003
2003
2004
2005
2006?
2006?
Jordan
Chile
Singapore
Morocco
Australia
Bahrain
Central America (DR-CAFTA)
% US
% US
Exports Imports
1
23
+ 14
1
18
+ 12
trivial
<1
2
trivial
2
trivial
2
trivial
<1
1
trivial
1
trivial
1