Transcript The economy
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October 2012
ING International Survey on Homes and Mortgages - 2012
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Table of contents
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Overview of results
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Executive Summary
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Infographic: Mortgage market myth busters
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Theme 1: Are homes too expensive?
5 › Homes still seen as “expensive” Renters in Europe Many still expect house prices to rise next year › › ›
Theme 2: Paying for homes: The bank of mum and dad
9 › Friends and family a help when paying for property Family help becoming more common?
Returning to the nest Late 20s has been the common age to enter the property market › › ›
Theme 3: Is it better to rent or buy?
14 Who owns and who rents?
Buying still popular despite falls in house prices Countries with high housing costs ›
Theme 4: Future focus
18 How many think “house prices never fall” (and other interesting insights about homes) › Buoyant outlook on home sales
Contact details 9 Disclaimer
22 21 Do not put content in the Brand Signature area
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• • • • •
Overview of results of ING International Survey on Homes and Mortgages – 2012
15 countries are compared in this report.
Twelve European countries plus Australia, Canada and the USA were surveyed. This report includes information about ‘the European consumer’ based on the weighted average of the European countries. Approximately 1,000 respondents in each country were surveyed.
The survey was conducted by TNS NIPO between 30 August and 17 September.
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Executive Summary
The ING International Survey on Homes and Mortgages shows the following main conclusions: 1. Despite thinking homes are expensive (a view held by 71% in Europe), many respondents still expect property prices to go up where they live next year. This view is strongest in Austria, Turkey and Luxembourg. The exceptions are Spain, where the property market is under intense pressure, and the Netherlands, where proposed changes to tax rules may have dampened the outlook on housing.
2. Financial risks associated with buying homes are underestimated by many people. Presented with the statement “house prices never fall”, 46% of European consumers agreed. Even in countries where prices fell in recent times, there are surprisingly high levels of agreement with the statement – with Spain at 25%. In the USA, agreement was only 9% and in the United Kingdom, 17%.
3. Families and friends play a big role in helping buy property. For our European consumer (a weighted average), 40% of homeowners got financial help from loved ones when buying their home. This type of assistance is more common among younger homeowners but the 31% of respondents aged 55+ who say they got the help suggest the “bank of mum and dad” has been around for some time. Loved ones also help out in times of financial distress, with 10% of European consumers having returned to live with friends or family for financial reasons. 4. Buying a home is expected to get more difficult. Seventy-four per cent of European consumer survey respondents think it is more difficult to buy a property than 10 years ago and 76% worry that younger people won’t be able to buy a property. - Ian Bright, ING senior economist Do not put content in the Brand Signature area
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Infographic: Mortgage market myth busters
Do not put content in the Brand Signature area See the full infographic at www.ezonomics.com/iis – or contact us for a copy
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Theme 1: Are homes too expensive? Do not put content in the Brand Signature area
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Do not put content in the Brand Signature area Theme 1: Are homes too expensive?
Homes still seen as “expensive”; drop in USA market so big homes may be starting to seem affordable
The view that houses are expensive is held almost universally in Europe and in Australia. In Luxembourg, Spain, Austria and Belgium, more than 80% of respondents say houses are expensive. At the other end of the spectrum, the standout is the USA, where the housing market sustained heavy falls during the global financial crisis that started in 2007.
Do you think house prices are expensive where you live?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Lu xe m bo urg Ita ly Au stri a Be lg iu m Sp ai n Fra nc e Po la nd Tu rk ey UK G erm an y Ro m an ia Ne th Eu erl ro an pe ds an co ns um er Au stra lia Ca na da US A Expensive Inexpensive
What is your personal opinion regarding the current level of house prices where you live?
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Theme 1: Are homes too expensive?
Renters in Europe almost as likely to view houses as expensive and age makes little difference
Non-owners (73%), such as renters and those living with family, are slightly more likely than owners (70%) in Europe to think houses are expensive. This is perhaps surprising given wider commentary about the difficulties many face buying their first home, however there are big differences when results are broken down to the country level. Age makes little difference in whether people think homes are expensive, with under 25s almost as likely as older age groups to say they are.
Do you think house prices are expensive where you live?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Owners Non-owners Do not put content in the Brand Signature area
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Expensive Inexpensive
What is your personal opinion regarding the current level of house prices where you live?
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Do not put content in the Brand Signature area Theme 1: Are homes too expensive?
Many still expect house prices to rise in the next year; Spanish and Dutch buck the trend
Even though houses are seen as expensive in Europe, Austrians, Germans and Luxembourgers strongly hold the view that house prices will still rise in the next year. In Spain, the major falls in house prices since 2008 and continuing pain in the wider economy seem to be reflected in the attitude there that house prices will fall in the next year. The IIS results suggest a turnaround could be on the way for property in the USA – where there were significant price drops in the recent past but now has more respondents thinking prices will rise in the next year than think prices will fall.
Do you think house prices will rise or fall in the next year?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Au stri a Tu rk ey Lu xe m bo urg Be lg iu m G erm an y Fra nc e UK Ro m an ia Ita ly Po la nd Ne th erl an ds Eu ro Sp pe ai n an co ns um er Rise Fall
Do you think housing prices will rise or fall over the next 12 months where you live?
Au stra lia Ca na da US A ING International Survey on Homes and Mortgages - 2012
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Theme 2: Paying for property: The bank of mum and dad Do not put content in the Brand Signature area
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Theme 2: Paying for property: The bank of mum and dad
At least 30% in 11 countries got monetary help from friends or family when buying their home
Homebuyers often get monetary help from loved ones to get a deposit for their home – using what is colloquially referred to as “the bank of mum and dad”. In Turkey, Italy, Romania and Poland, the numbers are particularly high. Even in Austria, Belgium, Germany, Luxembourg, Spain, Canada and Australia, the figure topped 30%.
Did you receive financial help when buying your home?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ita ly Tu rk ey Ro m an ia Po la nd Au stri a G erm an Lu y xe m bo urg Be lg iu m Sp ai n UK Fra nc e Ne th erl an ds Eu ro pe an co ns um er Au stra lia Ca na da Yes, at the time of buying the property Yes, during the repayment of the mortgage loan
Have you ever received monetary help from friends or family to help you buy a house/property?
No US A Do not put content in the Brand Signature area
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Theme 2: Paying for property: The bank of mum and dad
Is help from family becoming more common?
Younger homeowners are more likely to have had financial help from loved ones when they were buying their property, our European consumer figures show. It may signal that this method of buying a home is becoming more popular. However, even 31% of owners aged 55 + got this type of assistance suggesting that it has been a way of getting on the property ladder for many years.
Did you receive financial help when buying your home?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Do not put content in the Brand Signature area
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18-24 years 25-34 years Yes, at the time of buying the property 35-44 years 45-54 years 55+ years Yes, during the repayment of the mortgage loan
Have you ever received monetary help from friends or family to help you buy a house/property?
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Theme 2: Paying for property: The bank of mum and dad
Returning to the nest
Moving in with friends and family is a common response when financial difficulties strike. More than 10% of respondents in Turkey (18%), Romania (15%), Australia (14%), the United States (13%), Italy (12%) and Spain (11%) have done this.
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20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Tu rk ey Ro m an ia
Percentage of respondents who returned to live with friends or family because of financial difficulties
Ita ly Sp ai n Lu xe m bo urg UK Po la nd Fra nc e Be lg iu m Au stri a G erm an y Ne th erl Eu ro an pe ds an co ns um er Yes, I have considered this and have returned Au stra lia Ca na da US A
Have you ever considered returning to live with friends or family because of financial difficulties?
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Theme 2: Paying for property: The bank of mum and dad
Late 20s has been the common age to enter the property market
Across Europe, there is little difference in the median age at which respondents bought their first property. The United Kingdom has the youngest median age at 25 years and Germany the oldest at 33. Most fall within 25-to-30 years.
Age at which first property was bought (median)
35 30 25 Do not put content in the Brand Signature area
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20 G erm an y Ita ly Tu rk ey Au stri a Fra nc e Po la nd Ro m an ia Be lg iu m Sp ai Lu n xe m bo urg Ne th erl an ds Eu ro pe UK an co ns um er
At what age did you buy your first house/property?
ING International Survey on Homes and Mortgages - 2012 Au stra lia Ca na da US A
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Theme 3: Is it better to rent or buy?
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Theme 3: Is it better to rent or buy?
Most survey respondents own their home: more than 50% are owners in 11 countries
Germany is the only country in which more of our poll respondents rented than owned. Austria also stands out for the relatively high (42%) proportion of renters. The “other” category in the chart includes people living with friends and family and those who refuse to answer.
Do you own or rent your home?
70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Po la nd Ita ly Lu xe m bo urg Sp ai n Ro m an ia UK Ne th erl an ds Own Be Rent lg iu m Fra nc e Au stri a Tu rk ey G Eu erm ro an pe y an co ns um er Other Au stra lia Ca na da US A Do not put content in the Brand Signature area
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Which of the following situations best describes your housing situation?
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Theme 3: Is it better to rent or buy?
Buying is still popular despite falls in house prices
Asked if they thought it was better to own a house than rent, respondents strongly preferred homeownership. This was particularly strong in Romania (87%), Poland (83%) and Belgium and Luxembourg (both 82%). Do not put content in the Brand Signature area
October 2012 From a financial point of view, do you think it is better to own a house than to rent?
100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Ro m an ia Po la nd Lu xe m bo urg Be lg iu m Au stri a Ita ly UK Tu rk ey Fra nc e G erm an y Sp ai n Ne th erl an ds Eu ro pe an co ns um er Agree Disagree Neither agree nor disagree
From a financial point of view, it is better to own a house than to rent.
Au stra lia Ca na da US A ING International Survey on Homes and Mortgages - 2012
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Theme 3: Is it better to rent or buy?
Housing costs are relatively high in Turkey, Spain, Italy and Romania
The proportion of take home pay spent on accommodation (mortgage or rent payments) offers some fascinating insights when compared with responses elsewhere in the survey. In Romania, where respondents are most likely to see homeownership as better than renting, the median mortgagees spend of take home pay on mortgage payments is 46%. Compared with attitudes to whether homes are too expensive (page 6), we see Luxembourgers strongly feel homes are too expensive but mortgagees there spend only 25% of their take home pay on the mortgage – perhaps reflecting earnings strength. Do not put content in the Brand Signature area
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How much of your monthly income after tax is used for paying mortgage/rent?
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Theme 4: Future Focus Do not put content in the Brand Signature area
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Theme 4: Future Focus
Majority think buying homes is more difficult now – and fear young people won’t be able to enter market 74%
of European consumers in the survey think it is more difficult to buy a property than 10 years ago
76%
worry that younger people won’t be able to buy a property
73%
rent think it is better from a financial point of view to buy than to
46%
agree with the statement “house prices never fall”
71%
agree that property is a good investment
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Theme 4: Future Focus
Going, going, gone: Buoyant outlook on home sales
The Turks are particularly upbeat about prospects for more houses being sold in the next year, with Spanish, Dutch and Italians least optimistic. Houses sold could include turnover of existing homes or the selling of new builds.
Will more or fewer houses be sold over next 12 months?
75% 70% 65% 60% 55% 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Tu rk ey Lu xe mb ou rg Fra nc e Au stri a Be lg ium Ge rm an y Ro m an ia Po lan d UK Ita ly Ne the rla nd s Eu ro Sp pe ain an co ns um er Au stra lia Ca na da More Same Fewer Column 8 US A Do not put content in the Brand Signature area
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What do you think will happen to the number of houses being sold over the next 12 months compared to the last 12 months?
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Contact list
Country Contact Name
Pia Kain Liesbeth Van De Craen Maire Ginhoux Patrick Herwarth von Bittenfeld Silvia Colombo Ananda Kautz Ian Bright Ewa Szerszen Patricia Leiva Asenjo Buket Okumus Martin Rutland Ian Bright (Economist) Ana Oglindoiu Ian Bright (Economist) Ian Bright (Economist) Ian Bright (Economist) Robbert Keller Do not put content in the Brand Signature area
October 2012 Contact Phone
+43 1 68000 50181 +32 25476490 +33 607566202 +49 692722266886 +39 0255226645 +352 44 99 9259 +44 2077676656 +48 228204117 +34 916349244 +90 212 335 1066 +44 1189381800 +44 2077676656 +4021 4028580 +44 2077676656 +44 2077676656 +44 2077676656 +31 20 5225 963 ING International Survey on Homes and Mortgages - 2012
Contact Email
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Disclaimer
The opinions expressed in this publication are based on information gathered by ING and on sources that ING deems reliable. This data has been processed with care in our analyses. Neither ING nor employees of the bank can be held liable for any inaccuracies in this publication. No rights can be derived from the information given. ING accepts no liability whatsoever for the content of the publication or for information offered on or via the sites. Authors rights and data protection rights apply to this publication. Nothing in this publication may be reproduced, distributed or published without explicit mention of ING as the source of this information.
The user of this information is obliged to abide by ING’s instructions relating to the use of this information. Dutch law applies.
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