Transcript Commercializing Highways A New Paradigm for 21st Century

Galvin Mobility Project
Reason Foundation
By Adrian Moore, Vice President
and
Robert W. Poole, Jr., Director of Transportation Studies
Reason Foundation
www.reason.org
Mobility Project: http://www.reason.org/mobility/index.shtml
Galvin Mobility Project
Bob Galvin, Former Chairman of Motorola, Inc.
Took over Motorola in 1959 and built it into a global communications
powerhouse before retiring in 1990.
A great believer in change, Bob thinks that congestion will kill our cities
unless we start doing things differently.
The Galvin Mobility Project is a major
initiative to develop and implement a
framework for removing congestion as
an obstacle to mobility in American
cities.
Project Advisory Board
Al Appleton, Regional Plan Assoc.
Rob Atkinson, ITIF
Peggy Catlin, Colorado DOT
Robert Cervero, UC Berkeley
Randall Crane, UCLA
Elizabeth Deakin, UC Berkeley
Max Donath, University of Minnesota
Robert Dunphy, Urban Land Institute
James Ely, IBTTA
David Fleming, Latham & Watkins, LLP
David Gillen, Univ. of British Columbia
Genevieve Giuliano, USC
Peter Gordon, USC
Gary Groat, Fluor
David Hartgen, UNC Charlotte
Patrick D. Jones, IBTTA
Tony Kane, AASHTO
Steve Lockwood, PB Consult
Wayne Lusvardi, Valuation Consultant
Jim March, FHWA
Joel Marcuson, Jacobs Engineering
Nancy McGuckin, Consultant
Michael D. Meyer, Georgia Tech
James Moore, USC
John Njord, Utah DOT
Ken Orski, Innovation Briefs
Mary Peters, Former FHWA Director
Alan Pisarski, Consultant
Steve Pontell, LaJolla Institute
Peter Rahn, Missouri DOT
Jon Ramirez, Cofiroute USA
Darrin Roth, American Trucking Assoc.
Gabriel Roth, Transport Economist
Tom Rubin, Consultant
Phillip Russell, TxDOT
Peter Samuel, Transportation Consultant
William Simon, Jr., William E. Simon & Sons, LLC
Ken Small, UC Irvine
Pravin Varaiya, UC Berkeley
Christopher Voyce, Macquarie
Chip White, Georgia Tech
Geoff Yarema, Nossaman
Project Products
1. A series of studies on vital issues regarding
mobility;
2. Detailed proposals for congestion reduction in
individual cities across the United States,
including Dallas, Atlanta, Phoenix, Denver,
McAllen (TX), and Cape Coral/Ft. Meyers (FL);
3. A comprehensive policy recommendation for
urban mobility (Fall 2006);
4. A book, The Road More Traveled, by Samuel
Staley and Ted Balaker, explaining how improved
mobility can revitalize America’s cities.
Congestion
Will get a
lot worse,
unless we
change
course.
A Week spent in Traffic
(1982)
LA
A Week spent in traffic
(2003)
Seattle
Minneapolis-St. Paul
Boston
San Francisco
Sacramento
San Jose
Chicago
New York
Baltimore
DC
Louisville Charlotte
Denver
LA Riverside
LA
San Diego Phoenix
Detroit
Atlanta
Dallas
Austin
Houston
Orlando
Tampa
Miami
How Bad Will It Be
by 2030?
Congested lane-miles up 50%
 11 metro areas will have worse congestion than
today’s Los Angeles (TTI=1.75)
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Atlanta
Baltimore
Chicago
Denver
Las Vegas
Miami
Minneapolis/St. Paul
San Francisco Bay Area
Seattle
Washington, DC
Congestion hurts all
kinds of businesses

Delivery—from pizza
to parcels
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Wasted gas
Paying people to sit in
traffic
Cement business

Sat deliveries. Pay
overtime
Congestion hurts all
kinds of businesses

Blue collar
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Plumber
Landscaper
Air conditioning
repairman
Congestion hurts all
kinds of businesses

White collar
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Real Estate Agent
Salesman
Staffing headaches
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High Tech
Accounting
Congestion Shrinks the Pie
Your Potential Partner
Your Job Choices
Your Customers
Mobility Boosts
Business
Think agglomeration economies!

Study of 22 French cities.
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When travel speeds increased
10 %

Labor market increased 15%

Productivity up 3%

Employers gained access to
better employees, more
customers.
(Remy Proud’homme)
Congestion and Life
Frustrated drivers do
stupid things
 Drive erratically
 Tailgate
 Force their way into
turns
 Secondary accidents
Congestion slows
emergency care

67,000 deaths from
“savable” cardiac
arrest.

6 min.

Not just ambulances,
not just heart attacks
Congestion isn’t
gravity.
Lots More Driving, Not
So Much More Road
100%
82%
80%
VMT
60%
Hw y Lane
Miles
40%
20%
0%
4%
Congestion is Directly Related to
Roadway Capacity vs. Demand.
Person Hours of
Delay/Peak Traveler
Freeway LaneMiles/ 1000 Daily
VMT
Los Angeles
San Francisco
Washington, DC
Seattle
Houston
136
92
84
82
75
43
49
55
57
65
Salt Lake City
Pittsburgh
Oklahoma City
Rochester
20
15
12
8
78
107
83
91
Metro area
More Capacity = Less
Congestion
TTI Data and other sources show that adding capacity
reduces congestion
Not sustainable unless capacity is well managed, also. . .
SOV remains and WILL remain, the overwhelming choice:
Only SOV and Telecommute have increased market share in
last decade.
Despite major investment in HOV and transit:
Carpool to work: 11.2% in 2000 vs. 13.4% in 1990
Transit to work: 4.73% in 2000 vs 5.27% in 1990
The 10 Most Anti-Highway
Metro Areas
Metro area
Boston
San Jose
Salt Lake City
Charlotte
New York
San Diego
Miami
San Francisco
Philadelphia
Washington, DC
LRTP$
$48.3B
8.5
23.0
7.6
327.8
32.2
19.3
118.0
57.4
93.3
Hwy$
$4.5B
1.1
3.2
1.2
78.7
8.1
6.0
42.0
21.9
36.9
%Hwy
9%
13%
14%
16%
24%
25%
31%
36%
38%
40%
The Next 10 Metro
Areas
Metro area
Los Angeles
Seattle
Baltimore
Chicago
Atlanta
Houston
Denver
San Antonio
Mpls/St Paul
Dallas/Ft Worth
LRTP$
$115.4B
101.6
25.5
61.0
53.0
77.3
87.8
10.5
8.8
45.1
Hwy$
$48.5B
49.4
13.2
33.5
29.6
46.7
53.9
6.5
5.6
30.6
%Hwy
42%
49%
52%
55%
56%
60%
61%
62%
64%
68%
Adding Capacity to Kill LOS F:
First Mobility Project Study
• Total cost over 25 years is a bit
over $21B/year, mostly in larger
urban areas.
• This averages 28% of what MPOs
already plan to spend on
transportation.
• Average cost per commuter trip is
30-60 cents in most cities.
• Time saved is worth several times
as much as cost/trip.
One Reason We Aren’t Building
Much: Major Funding Shortfall
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2002 FHWA Conditions and
Performance Report Found
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Annual capital spending: $68 billion
Investment needed to maintain performance:
$119 billion
Urban expressway lane--$5-10m/lane
mile
Elevated lanes--$15-30m/lane mile
Costs to build, operate, maintain--19-90
cents/mile, gas tax 2-3 cents/mile
How to Fit In More
Capacity
 Ever-wider
freeways
not the best approach.
 Find new ROW for
smaller addition of
specialized lanes (cars, trucks)
 Add capacity within existing ROW
(build upward)
 Add missing links by tunneling.
HOT Lanes
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Variable pricing
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Keeps traffic moving
65mph vs 20mph
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Electronic Toll
Collection
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Popular

Equitable
+ High Quality
Transit
 Variable
pricing can give bus riders the
unthinkable—reliable travel.
 Priced lanes are the “virtual” equivalent of
exclusive bus lanes, but most of the
vehicles are cars that pay tolls.
 Houston Katy project: 25% for transit and
super-HOVs
= VEB (Virtual
Exclusive Busway)
Something for everyone.
 Transit
users get better
service.
 Motorists get a free flowing escape route.
 Local
govts get new funding source.
Bottom Line
1. Building a case for policy makers to take
congestion far more seriously.
2. Good new research on capabilities, costs,
innovations, methods, constraints, and how to
overcome them.
3. Illustration with detailed proposals for congestion
reduction in individual cities, including Dallas,
Atlanta, Phoenix, Denver, McAllen (TX), and Cape
Coral/Ft. Meyers (FL).
4. Work on institutional changes and
implementation
Research Studies
Why Mobility Matters: A much more detailed look at the costs of congestion than
the TTI cost figures, and at the benefits of mobility (Ted Balaker).
Adding Capacity to Metro Areas: A calculation of the capacity needed to be added in
the 403 metro areas by 2030 to eliminate LOS F congestion, the costs of doing so,
and the benefits (David Hartgen, UNC Charlotte)
Likable Roads--Innovative Highway Design Concepts: Ideas and innovation in
highway and arterial designs to make new capacity more efficient and feasible in
urban settings and more acceptable to the communities they traverse (Peter Samuel)
The Demographics of Cities & Travel: A new analysis of changing urban
demographics and lifestyle and job trends are influencing travel behavior and the
implications for transportation planning (Joel Kotkin and William Frey)
Congestion Relief Toolbox: A plain-English guide to existing congestion relief tools
that are underutilized by most metro areas (Ted Balaker and Adam Summers)
Research Studies
Mass Transit's Role in Relieving Congestion: An examination of what
conditions and strategies make transit more or less able to help reduce
congestion (Tom Rubin)
Congestion Reduction and Policy Change in Texas: A report on what lessons
can be learned from the process Texas decision-makers recently went through
to win support for a comprehensive congestion mitigation strategy at the state
and metropolitan level (Wendell Cox and Alan Pisarski)
Land Use Impacts on Traffic Congestion: A plain-English guide to what we know
about the effects of commercial and residential land use on transportation mode
choice, particularly whether changes in land use, by increasing density or
mixing commercial and residential uses, can significantly influence decisions
about whether people drive or use another mode (UC Irvine's Marlon Boarnet
and UCLA's Randall Crane, co-authors of Travel by Design)
Systems and Operations Management to Manage Congestion: A framework for
a performance-based approach to transportation systems operations and
management.
Research Studies
And studies on:
•Measuring the Economic Costs of Congestion
•Measuring the Social Costs of Congestion
•PPP’s and Toll-based Financing of Projects
•Air Quality Impacts of Adding Urban Road Capacity
•A Better Understanding of Non-Work Travel
•A Framework for Urban Corridor Design and Context Sensitivity
•Innovations in Environmental Mitigation of New Capacity
•Where the Transportation Planning Process has Gone Astray and How
to Fix It
Questions?
Dr. Adrian Moore
([email protected])
Robert Poole
([email protected])
www.reason.org/mobility