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Natural Hazards
• What are the greatest risks?
– Are these risks increasing?
• What are the costs associated with
environmental hazards?
– Are the relative costs the same around the
world?
– What controls these costs?
• How do we define risk?
So… What are common hazards
• Let’s list the hazards people think of when
of when they think of natural hazards
• Which of these are the most dangerous in
the U.S.?
• Which are the most expensive (in the U.S.)?
Data for U.S. ???
Hazard
Annual Number of
Deaths per Year
Tornadoes & Windstorms
218
Lightning
120
Flooding
86
Tropical Cyclones
55
Earthquakes
50+ ?
Mass Wasting
25
Volcano
<1
Coastal Erosion
0
Drought
0
Frost & Freezing
Data is a 150 year average from 19th and 20th centuries (Keller, 1999).
0?
Number of Hazard Events World Wide
Type of Hazard
Tornadoes (U.S. only)
Flood
Tropical Cyclone
Tsunami
Earthquake
Wind (other than tornado)
Drought
Landslide
Wild fire
Extreme temperature
Temperate winter storm
Volcano
Tornadoes (non-US)
Famine
Storm surge
No of Events
9476
2389
1337
986
899
793
782
448
269
259
240
168
84
77
18
For 20th century data from WHO (2002), U.S. tornado data are only for 1950-1995 for only F2-F5 size events
Numbers of Deaths Associated with
Natural Disasters Worldwide
Type of Hazard
Deaths
Injuries
Homeless Largest Event Death Toll
Floods
6,851,740
1,033,572
123,009,662
Earthquakes
1,816,119
1,147,676
8,953,296
Tropical cyclones
1,147,877
906,311
Volcanoes
96,770
Mass Wasting
China 1931
3,700,000
Tangshan, China 1976
242,000
34,272,470
Bangladesh 1970
300,000
11,154
197,790
Martinique 1902
30,000
60,501
8,071
3,759,329
Soviet Union 1949
12,000
Extra-tropical storms
36,681
117.925
12,606,891
Heat waves
14,732
1,364
0
Tsunamis
10,754
789
Not counted
Cold waves
6,807
1.307
17,340
Tornadoes
7,917
27,887
Wild Fires
2,503
1,658
Data for 20th century, based on WHO (2002) data.
N. Europe 1953
4,000
India 1998
2,541
Sanriku, Japan 1933
3,000
India 1982
400
575,511
Bangladesh 1989
800
140,776
Oklahoma, U.S. 1918
1,000
Worldwide Hazard Ranking by Cost
Type
Earthquake
Flood
Tropical storm
Wind Storm
Wild Fire
Drought
Cold wave
Heat wave
Total
Cost
$248,624,900,000
$206,639,800,000
$80,077,700,000
$43,890,000,000
$20,212,800,000
$16,800,000,000
$9,555,000,000
$5,450,000,000
$631,250,200,000
Cost of natural hazards, summarized by type for top 100 most costly events of 20 th century (WHO, 2002).
F5 Tornado that hit Greensburg
Kansas, May 4, 2007
-Doppler radar gave a 20-minute warning
-Tornado was 1.5 miles across at its base
-95% of the town was leveled
http://www.chaseday.com/tornadoes.htm
Lightening strikes 100 times/second worldwide, with the
greatest number of hits in central Africa. In the U.S. the
greatest number of lightening strikes occur in Florida.
The Empire State building is hit on average 100 times/year.
Sean & Michael McQuilken, 1975
Define some terms
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What are precursor events?
What is forecasting?
How do warnings work?
What is risk?
– What is acceptable risk?
• What is the purpose of insurance?