What if the program shows no positive impact on youth?

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Transcript What if the program shows no positive impact on youth?

GOT DATA?

Step-by-Step Guide to Making Data Work for You

Center for Applied Research Solutions, Inc 771 Oak Avenue Parkway, Suite 3 Folsom, CA 95630 (916) 983-9506 TEL (916) 983-5738 FAX

GOT DATA?

Step-by-Step Guide to Making Data Work for You

Facilitators: Kerrilyn Scott Christina Borbely Produced and Conducted by the Center for Applied Research Solutions, Inc. for the California Department of Alcohol and Drug Programs SDFSC Workshop-by-Request May 16, 2005 Authored by Christina J. Borbely, Ph.D.

Safe and Drug Free Schools and Communities Technical Assistance Project

Objectives

     Preparing to Use Data – – – – Database options & structure Identifying data Coding & Entering Storing & Cleaning Methods for Summarizing Data – – Basics: frequency & % change Beyond Basics: mean scores; making comparisons Interpreting Data Effective Report Writing Utilizing & Disseminating Findings – Program improvement, Funders, Key Stakeholders

Ready, Set, Go!

Preparing to Use Data

 Database Options  Identifying Data  Coding Data  Entering, Storing, & Cleaning Data

Database Options

 Microsoft Excel  Microsoft Access  SPSS

Excel

 Spreadsheet format   Some computational functions Compatible with other MS software & statistical software  Comes with Microsoft Office package (or $299) http://office.microsoft.com/en us/FX010858001033.aspx

Access

      User friendly design Requires some preparation prior to data entry Generates custom reports Good for qualitative (i.e. open-ended items) & quantitative data Compatible with other Microsoft software & statistical software (i.e. converts easily to Excel!) Comes with Microsoft Office package (or $299) http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/FX010857911033.aspx

SPSS

 Spreadsheet format  Requires some tutorial (not always intuitive)  One-touch data analysis!

 Pricing ranges from $599 to $1499 www.spss.com

Watcha Got?

 Identifying data  Variable names

Identifying Data

Each piece of information you have for a participant or a program is data.

Data are…

# of completed surveys data # of times a youth attended a session # of youth who attended a meeting # of merchants contacted for outreach Age Grade

FYI: Types of Data

Discrete, categorical

Male/Female US Citizen/Non US Citizen Freshman, Sophmore, Junior, Senior 

Continuous

Age Salary Conflict Resolution Ability

Variable Names

Each piece of data is labeled with a unique (and hopefully meaningful) variable name

.

Data Section E, item 3 Age Unit 1 total score Variable Name E3 Age Un1tot

Variable Names: Do’s & Don’ts

Meaningful

For section E, item 6: E6 Variable124a DOB E6 

Short

Date of Birth Youth Survey Section E, Item #6 E6, E7, E9, F1, F2 

Systematic

1F, twoF, Fthree

Plan to reference data collection time points

First administration

: BL (for baseline) or T1 (for time 1) or PRE (for pre-test) BLE6, FUE6 E6, E6 

Be consistent with the chosen system

T1E6, T2E6 E6T1, T2E6

Coding Key: Do’s

Translate into numeric values

For response scale: YES! Yes No NO!

YES! = 3 Yes = 2 No = 1 NO! = 0 

Record coding key directly onto measure & save!

Coding System Examples

Race Black = 1 Hispanic = 2 White = 3 Asian = 4 Other = 5 Gender Male = 1 Female = 2

Coding Key: Don’ts

Do not create a separate variable to code each response to an item.

1. What grade are you in? A. 6 th Variable name = BL1 Codes A=1; B=2; C=3 B. 7 th C. 8 th

NOT

Variable name = BL1A; BL1B; BL1C Codes Yes=1; No=0

Advanced Coding

Collapsing Variables by Code

1. Do you live in a house? Y/N 2. Do you live in an apartment? Y/N 3. Do you live in a barn? Y/N

Variable Name: “Reside” Codes:

house = 1 apartment = 2 barn = 3

Reverse Coding

The values of the coding system may need to be reversed to reflect the true meaning of the response.

1. Do you runaway from home? Often Sometimes Rarely Never 2. Do your parents smile at you? Often Sometimes Rarely Never 3. Are you happy at home?

Often Sometimes Rarely Never Variable codes: Reverse code: 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 4

Entering Data in Your Database

Create 1 row of variable names: Across

Create 1 column of names/id #s: Down

 Enter post test & follow-ups by

extending the row

each participant for ID BLgrade BLa23 0025 6 2.5

T2grade T2a23 7 3.1

Save regularly

as you enter (don’t lose all that work!)

Storing Data

 Hardcopies  Electronic files

Under Lock n’ Key

Guard with your life

until a back up is made 

Keep all hardcopies

as backup  Maintain

back ups in different locations

Preserve confidentiality

 Separate identifying information from surveys  Use passwords; locked file cabinets; secured offices

Cleaning Data: Quick, Easy, & Worth It!

Save yourself the grief of inexplicable scores…

 Data should fall within an expected range (e.g. 1 to 5).

    Scan data for unusual numbers by: Visual review A “sort by” function A “find” function A “minimum/maximum” or “range” function

Squeaky Clean!

 Use a “

missing” marker

(e.g. 999) when a response is purposely missing (e.g. left blank, etc.) Pros:

easy to spot

unintentionally unentered data Cons:

extra step

to remove missing marker later 

Don’t forget to exclude “missing” data values

, so it doesn’t mess up your computations!

FYI: How to use “missing” markers

1.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Select number or symbol that will not naturally occur in the data Enter marker when data point is unavailable Clean data & look for “blanks”. Fill in un-entered or incomplete data.

After

data is clean, delete or exclude the missing marker Do data analysis

Recommendations

 Consider using “in house” resources for entering & cleaning data  Consider outsourcing database development to a graduate student or local evaluator

FYI: Outliers

 An outlier is a data point that

does not cluster

with other data points in the group.

Example

: ages range from 12.1 to 14.3 years; there are 3 outliers age 17.4; 19.2; and 19.7 years.

 It

may skew data

not representative of the sample.

so that it is  Consider

excluding outliers

Housekeeping Activity: Clean the Data

Guide: Step 1

 Set up a database  Code and enter data  Clean database Kids today!

Putting Data to Work Methods for Summarizing Data

 Basics  Taking It Up a Notch

Add It Up

 Count or Tally

Do you attend Club Live? Yes No

By hand llll

Yes

ll

No

l

Blank

By computer Yes=1; No=0; Blank=999

ID

jn789 rs587 ty390 ge188 bo989 va689 pc490 sz688

T21a

1 0 1 1 0 999 1 1

Frequencies: Ratio & Percent Distribution

Quantifies rate of occurrence for categories of information

Useful for….

What race are you?

     Black White Asian Hispanic Other Do you live with both biological parents?

Yes

NOT As Useful for….

No How much you like school? (circle one) YES! Yes No NO!

How old are you? _____

Calculating Frequency

 Sum the number of times a given response occurs  Report a number: a ratio or percentage Gender Male Female Total # of participants 49 51 100 % of participants 49% 51% 100%   Of the 100 participants, 49 were male.

This year, almost half (51%) of the participants were females.

Common uses

Demographics to characterize participants or community

Race; gender; grade; homeowner status 

Statistics to describe program

Number of program completers % of city council members contacted 

Impact statements on outcomes

% of youth reporting ATOD use Ratio of signage below adult eye-level

Reporting Frequencies

Frequency of participants reporting they are: Male Employed Getting mostly B’s in math Parents of a FNL youth Frequency with which: Decoy buys are successful Alcohol-sponsored events occur

Sample: Excerpt of Frequency in Text

“ Of clients with completed CBCL/YSR, well over half (56.9%) function in the lowest quartile of global competence. Specifically, clients demonstrate compromised ability related to engagement in age-appropriate activities, social interaction, and performance at school. Given that services are provided in the school context, it is not surprising that almost three-quarters of the clients (71.2%) function in the bottom quartile of school-related competence. Teachers and other school staff, individuals familiar with indicators of school competence, are the most common referral source of students. It is expected that competence in these domains will benefit from student participation in counseling services. Additional data is being collected to test for improvement over time.”

Change Score

 Comparison of scores to assess change

Proposed outcome

:

ID

80% of youth increased awareness of ATOD consequences

T1consq T2consq Change Increase

jn789 3.4

3.4

0 No rs587 ty390 ge188 bo989 va689 pc490 sz688 2.1

2.5

3.0

4.3

999 3.2

1.6

3.6

3.4

3.5

4.5

2.9

2.9

2.5

+1.5

+.9

+.5

+.2

999 -.3

+.9

Yes Yes Yes Yes N/A No Yes

5 of 7 youth increased scores = 71.4% of youth increased awareness of ATOD consequences

Taking It Up a Notch

  Mean scores And beyond…

Mean Scores

 The mean refers to a variables central tendency and is the sum of all a factors values divided by the number of values.

 “Mean” and “average” refer to the same concept.

Calculating Means

 Sum all the response values, then divide by the total number (of responses or items)  Provide a frame of reference (“out of how many”)

Averages

ID aj785 tk983 mr286 Age 20 22 19 61/3 = 20.3

ItemE7 4 3 5 12/3 = 4 RskFctrs 3 0 2 5/3 = 1.6

   The mean age of the participants is 20.3 years.

The average score on Item E7 is 4 out of 5.

Youth have an average of 1.6 risk factors out of a possible 4 risk factors.

Common Uses

 To make a generalized statement about a group.

 Demographics to characterize participants or community Age; Income level  Impact statements on outcomes Level of ATOD use among youth Sub-scale scores

Reporting Mean Scores

Report means of sub-scales

Average score for “Community Connection” scale

Report mean scores of an individual item

Item E4: How often did you smoke pot in the past 7 days?

Report mean score of occurrence

Average number of hours spent educating merchants

Sample: Excerpt of Mean Score in Text

“Of the districts completing Year 1 Superintendent Surveys, the majority indicated that counseling services were of a resource of high value. On a five-point scale with 5 being the highest value, the average value assigned to the Project X counseling services was 3.67. In addition, all districts indicated that parents, teachers, administrators, and school psychologists were largely receptive to and supportive of the resource. The majority of responding superintendents indicate that districts would benefit from expanding counseling services and improving the physical space allotted for service delivery. Clearly, Year 1 has culminated in substantiated need and the resolve to prioritize addressing the need.

Analysis Activity: Finding Findings

FYI: Calculating Subscale Means

  For each case, sum the values for all items in the subscale and divide by that number of items.

Then calculate the overall mean of each participant’s mean score.

Subscale: Attitudes Towards Violence Items included: A8, A9, B4, E7, F2, F3 (6 items)

ID A8 A9 B4 E7 F2 F3 Sum Mean N7H K2F 2 1 3 2 5 2 1 1 3 4 3 1 17 11 2.83

1.83

Overall mean: 4.66/2

Attitudes Toward Violence mean = 2.33 out of 5.

FYI: Other Measures of Central Tendency

 Mode The most frequently occurring value in a set of values The modal response for the smoking subscale was 2.0 out of 5.0. This indicates that while youth may have tried smoking, most do not smoke on a regular basis.

 Median It is the value that is the mid-point in a set of values where half the values are smaller & half are larger.

The median cost of a home in the area is $350,000, well above the average family income for participating parents.

Apples to Apples?

Comparing Frequencies & Means

Means to Means and Frequencies to Frequencies

 Over time Pre- to Post-Test Scores Incidence statistics the year before to the year after the program  Across groups Program participants to control/comparison group Merchants with low program participation to those with high program participation

Frequencies & Means: Method of Comparison

Eyeballing differences

Testing differences

 Anyone can do it  Limits interpretation   Requires a simple statistical test Determines whether the difference is meaningful  Allows definitive statement about comparison

Recommendations

 Consider using an evaluator or identifying a consultant (like a local graduate student) to do statistical tests or analyses.

Activity: Compare Scores

And beyond…

 Normal distribution  Standard deviation  Statistical significance

FYI: Normal Distribution

 Normal distribution refers to a group of data points that occur symmetrically and with a bell-shaped density and one peak.

Balasubramanian Narasimhan , Stanford University, July 22, 1996

FYI: Standard Deviation

 Standard deviation is a standardized score to indicate where a finding falls on the normal distribution.

 Often means are reported with a standard deviation (SD). For example, mean = 3.4 (.17).

 Rule of thumb: SD between 0 and 2 are fine. Outside of this, finding may be skewed.

FYI: Statistical Significance

 “Statistical significance” refers to the probability that the outcome of data analysis indicates an effect when there isn’t one.

  When comparing means or frequencies (or other analysis outcomes), a test statistic is used to determine if there is a meaningful difference.

If a finding is “significant”, the outcome is considered true (with 95% certainty)

Guide: Step 2

Compute frequencies & means to describe program, participants, and outcomes

Compare findings

Making Meaning Interpreting Data

 Bite your tongue  Sound bytes  Spin

Bite your tongue

Do say

Is associated with… This suggests… May indicate… Appears to… *note specific limitations (e.g. “no baseline”)

Don’t say

Is caused by… Is the result of… Due to… Because of… Significantly differed… (unless tested)

Sound Bites

Put favorable findings in short, sweet sentences

.

Statement to press:

Participation in FNL is associated with increases in self esteem.

Presentation to key stakeholders:

Merchants with Responsible Merchant education are less likely to sell alcohol to children in our community.

Spin

 Group your data to

maximize findings

(e.g. cut a 4 point scale into high/low scores) 

“No change” is “maintenance”

Couch unanticipated or lack of findings

in reasonable explanation or plans

Sample: Excerpt of “Spin”

“While scores from the Youth Survey’s ATOD use subscale indicate that participants increased their substance use over time (mean use at baseline = 3.2 out of 5; post-test = 4.0), this should be considered in context. Specifically, research reports a developmental (i.e. maturational) effect on adolescent use rates. When participant use rates were compared to rates reported for the same age group in Sutter County’s California Healthy Kids Survey, our youth were faring better…..

In addition, as noted in the previous section, youth attitudes towards substance use showed improvement over time. Within the literature, change in attitude is widely regarded as the first step in impacting behavior…”

Try Your Hand Activity: Translating Findings in Text

Guide: Step 3

 Find your findings  Select key findings  Strategically frame findings

Read All About It!

Effective Report Writing

 Know Your Audience  Show Your Work  If You’ve Got It, Flaunt It  A Picture Speaks a Thousand Words

Know Your Audience

 Consider Who You Are Dealing With….

What do they care about?

How much time do they have?

What level of detail is ideal?

What do you expect to accomplish by sharing information with them?

Show Your Work

 Don’t just report findings, report

how you found them

Specify:

measure development administration details

Sample: Excerpt of Evaluation Methodology

“The evaluation components for the fifth year consisted of the following elements: Protégé Pre- and Post Surveys (Outcome), Participant Satisfaction Surveys (for both Mentors and Proteges), Program Advisor Surveys, County Coordinator Phone Interviews, and Site Visits (Primarily focusing on interviewing the youth participants). In addition, Monthly Reports and Mentoring Session Activity Logs were collected and analyzed. The following provides a more detailed description of each component and the sample size.

Protégé Pre- and Post-Surveys: These instruments are intended to measure the impact of FNLM on the Proteges. The survey measures constructs such as school attachment, decision making and goal setting, conflict resolution, refusal skills, and ATOD harm perceptions and use. The survey took approximately 30 minutes to complete and primarily consisted of likert scale rating items. A sub sample of seven counties were administered the outcome survey and a total of 71 matched pre/post surveys were used for the data analysis ”

(FNL Year 5 Evaluation Report, 2003)

 Describe program or evaluation

“lessons learned”

to account for modifications Sample: Excerpt of

Limitations

“Over the course of the four years, tracking program attendance has posed a major challenge. During the first two years of the program, valid attendance rates were not available due to hand-written attendance logs and a lack of documentation of program drop-outs. While the attendance data has improved dramatically over the course of the program, for the previous year tracking individual attendance rates was still not feasible. However, appropriate and consistent documentation of the number of mentors and protégés attending the mentoring sessions did allow for reporting average attendance levels by school site for mentors and protégés for each county; this method will be continued this year and will further benefit from the addition of an attendance summary sheet.” (FNL Year 5 Evaluation Report, 2003)

If You’ve Got It, Flaunt It

Insert statistics

and participants to describe the program, staff,  Report overall outcome findings & include

notable specifics

“At program end, fewer youth showed favorable attitudes toward alcohol use (17% versus 25%), especially girls (13% versus 29%).”

A picture speaks a thousand words

 Use graphs & charts to illustrate findings FNL survey relationship building mean scores (N = 204 youth) Community ATOD indicators per 1,000 population

positive peer connections bonding with adult staff 5 4.5

4 3.5

3 2.5

2 1.5

1 25

Percentage of Participants at Risk (N = 100)

5% 35% High Medium Low 20 15 10 60% 5 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Pre Test Post Test ATOD related hospital discharges DUI arrests

When To Use What Graphic

Line Graph

: use to display values (data points) over time

25 20 ATOD related hospital discharges DUI arrests

Community ATOD indicators per 1,000 population

15 10 5

0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Bar Chart

: use to display a distribution of values across categories

50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 Mostly Bs & As Mostly Cs Mostly Ds & Fs Grades

Grouped Bar Chart

: use to display a distribution of values across categories for two+ variables

positive peer connections bonding with adult staff 5 4.5

4 3.5

3 2.5

2 1.5

1 Pre Test Post Test

FNL survey relationship building mean scores (N = 204 youth) 

Pie Chart

: use to display the distribution of cases across categories. Wedge=number or percentage.

5% 35% High Medium Low 60%

Percentage of Participants at Risk (N = 100)

Creating Figures

Automated

“chart” function in MS Word (2003), Excel, & Powerpoint 

Label

everything  Give each figure an

informative title

“Mean survey scores of 10 th High School” grade Youth Coalition members at Oak Ridge  Give

context

of data (e.g. “per 1000 population”)  Indicate the

population size

participants”) (e.g. “112

Writing About Graphics

Do

highlight key findings

displayed in figure Don’t reiterate in text every detail of the figure Sample: Excerpt of Text for Figure

“Retention Rates:

The attrition rates continue to show a slight decrease this year. A total of Fifty-two mentors (10%) and thirty-eight protégés (9%) were reported to drop-out of the program. In the previous year, attrition rates of 13% were seen for both the mentors (n=147) and proteges (n=141).

average number of The protégés that dropped from all school sites was higher than for the mentors.

5.0

Average Number of Protege Drops Per Site 5.0

Average Number of Mentor Drops Per Site “ 4.5

4.5

(FNL Year 5 Evaluation Report, 2003) 4.0

4.0

3.5

3.5

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

2.5

2.0

2.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

1.2

MDPCHGS1 2.0

PDPDS1 PDPDS2 PDPDS3 MDPCHGS2 MDPCHGS3

Writing Tips

Say it in numbers

The letter-writing campaign was successful.

The letter-writing campaign resulted in communication with 67 local government officials.

Say ONE thing at a time

More than half of the original participants completed the program and relationships with parents improved over time.

More than half (57%) of the original participants completed the program. These young people demonstrated a 12% improvement in relationships with parents over time.

Writing Tips

Be precise (not vague

) Program participants included high risk youth.

Over one-third (36%) of program participants met at least one of three risk factors, including school expulsion/drop out, juvenile arrest record, or free-lunch status.

Connect proposed outcomes to performance measures to findings.

A primary goal of the program was to reduce accessibility of tobacco to minors. Decoy buy assessments and focus groups with merchants involved in the merchant education program indicate that tobacco accessibility is more stringent now compared to at Year 1.

Writing Tips

Add interpretation or explanation to outcomes

.

Results from the Youth Survey indicate that teens showed healthier attitudes toward drug use, but increased drug use behavior over time.

Results from the Youth Survey indicate that teens showed healthier attitudes toward drug use, but increased drug use behavior over time. It may be that the program is most effective in impacting youth attitudes, not behaviors related to drug use. Research suggests that appropriate attitudes is a first step towards changing behavior.

Writing Tips

Use qualitative data to add depth to quantitative data.

Program records indicate that after a mid-year dip in attendance rates, regular participation exceeded expectations.

Program records indicate that after a mid-year dip in attendance rates, regular participation exceeded expectations. A focus group conducted with program staff at the end of the school year revealed that a gang violence incident on campus resulted in the temporary suspension of all after school activity programs. This corresponds with the dip in our program’s attendance rates.

Try Your Hand Activity: Writing Up Findings

Guide: Step 4

 Describe how evaluation was conducted   Include general and detailed findings Consider using graphics

Spread the Word Utilizing & Disseminating Findings

One-pager

 Develop a 1 page summary to: – – – describe program key impacts recommendations or next steps

Sample: Excerpt of One Page Summary

Program Improvement

 Identify

strengths and weaknesses

 Use findings to

inform strategic planning

 Regularly report impact to project staff to for

morale boosting

sessions 

Highlight modifications

lessons learned made based on

Sample: Excerpt of Strengths & Weaknesses

Strengths Recruiting and Screening

At-Risk

Challenges

•Very smooth getting at-risk youth – returning protégés already fit the profile •There were no problems recruiting at-risk youth, because we were working with that population anyways. •The at-risk group is attracted to FNL anyway, we had a wonderful group. It was trying at times, but they were paired with mentors that matched them so well – I saw some great moments. •There were a lot more discipline problems such as lack of interest and lack of involvement.

•There appears to be a stigma at this site about staying on campus after school hours •The screening process made finding these individuals more difficult because there are few students at the school who fit the criteria of a committed, good student who is not involved in conflicting extra-curricular activities

Reporting to Funders

 Use the

specified format

 Address the

original grant initiatives

point as focal  Use language that

links back to original proposal

 Highlight

lessons learned

 Review

sustainability

Sharing with Key Stakeholders

 Be

concise

 Use very

basic statistics & graphics

 Make information

accessible to broad audience

 Use exciting/

interesting format

Acknowledge

contributions  Highlight steps toward

the future

For Policy-makers

: make specific

recommendations

Get the News Out

 Newsletter  Press Release  Newspaper Articles  Local Television Station  Organized meetings (program staff; city council; school board; PTA)

Guide: Step 5

 Audience-specific format

Activity: Ask the Wizard

Finally…

You now know how to:  Set up, code, enter, and clean data  Translate data into findings  Add context and interpretation to findings  Disseminate evaluation findings

The End.

(woo hoo!)