Transcript Document

Introduction
to
Systems Thinking
Pakinee Ariya
Learning Outcome
After attending this lecture, participants should be
able to understand:
 What is a system and its characteristics
 Systems Thinking and its applications
1
Frequently Asked Question (FAQ)


WHAT IS A
SYSTEM?
Your definition?
Activity1: what is a
system according to your idea? ( 5 min.)
2
What is a system?


A definition offered by Gregory Watson in his
book, Business Systems Engineering
“System means a grouping of parts that operate
together for a common purpose.” (Watson,
1994).
3
What is a System?...
“A system is an entity that maintains its existence and
functions as a whole through the interaction of its
parts. The behavior of systems depends on how the
parts are related, rather than on the parts themselves.
Therefore you can understand many different systems
using the same principles. Each part of the system may
influence the whole system, and changes to any part
of the system will always have side effects.”
Joseph O’Connor & Ian McDermott, The Art of System Thinking.
4
Example of a system:
5
Car Assembly Parts
6
Ecological System
7
Organic/Biological Systems
8
Connectedness Feature
“If you wish to understand a system, and so be in
a position to predict its behavior, it is necessary
to study the system as a whole. Cutting it up
into bits for study is likely to destroy the
system’s connectedness, and hence the system
itself.” (Sherwood, 2002)
9
Connectedness Feature
“If you wish to influence or control the behavior of
a system, you must act on the system as a
whole. Tweaking it in one place in the hope that
nothing will happen in another is doomed to
failure—that’s what connectedness is all about.”
(Sherwood, 2002).
10
To know more about Systems Thinking,
read this book!
THE FIFTH DISCIPLINES
Personal
Mastery
Shared
Systems
Mental
Vision
Thinking
Models
Team
Learning
Book by Peter Senge in 1990 on Learning Organization
Component of a learning organization
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Mental models
Personal mastery
Building shared vision
Team learning
Systems thinking
The Fifth Discipline is SYSTEMS THINKING
Learning organization
The Fifth Discipline by Peter Senge (1990)
“A learning organization is a place where people are
continually discovering how they create their reality.”
Innovate an invention to replicate at a meaningful scale
and cost.
13
Mental model




Why Best Ideas Fail
Conflict with deeply held internal images of how the
world works
Mental models determine how we take action
Mental models are so powerful - because they affect
what we see
14
I take Actions based on my beliefs
I adopt Beliefs about the world
I draw Conclusions
I make Assumptions based on the meanings I
added
I add Meanings (cultural and personal)
I select “Data” from what I observe
The
reflexive
loops
(our beliefs
at least what
data we
select
next time)
Observable “data” and experiences (as a
might capture it)
15
PersonalPERSONAL
mastery
MASTERY




The Spirit of the Learning Organization
Organizations learn only through individuals who
learn
Individual learning does not guarantee
organizational learning, but without it no
organizational learning can occur
Personal Vision
16
Share vision

A Common Caring

A shared vision is a vision that many people are truly
committed to and it reflects their own personal vision

Helps establish overarching goals

Provides a rudder to keep the learning process on
course when stresses develop
17
Stages of Group Development
Prestage I
Stage III
Norming
Stage I
Forming
Stage II
Storming
Stage IV
Performing
Stage V
Adjourning
18
Through learning we can…..




Re-create ourselves
Become able to do things we never were able to do
before
Re-perceive the world and our relationship to it
Extend our capacity to create, to be part of the
generative process of life
19
Team learning


The fundamental learning unit
Alignment - necessary condition before empowering
the individual will empower the whole team
System thinking

The conceptual cornerstone that underlies all of the
five learning disciplines

A discipline for seeing wholes

Seeing structures that underlie complex situations

Seeing interrelationships rather than linear cause and
effect chains.

Seeing processes of change rather than snapshots
21
“The significant problems we face today cannot be
solved at the same level of thinking at which they
were created.”
Albert Einstein
WHAT IS SYSTEMS THINKING?
Founded in 1956 by MIT professor, Jay Forrester.
System thinking allows people to make their
understanding of social system explicit and improve
them in the same way that people use engineering
principles to improve their understanding of
mechanical system.
It is use to:• Examining how we create our own problems
• Seeing the big picture
• Structure influences performance
SYSTEM THINKING APPROACH
Traditional analysis
Systems thinking
Traditional analysis focuses on
the separating the individual
pieces of what is being studied;
in fact, the word “analysis”
actually comes from the root
meaning
“to
break
into
constituent parts.
Systems thinking, in contrast,
focuses on how the thing being
studied interacts with the other
constituents of the system—a set
of elements that interact to
produce behavior—of which it is
a part.
Examples of area System Thinking has proven
its value include:




Complex problems that involve helping many
actors see the “big picture” and not just their part
of it
Recurring problems or those that have been
made worse by past attempts to fix them
Issues where an action affects (or is affected by)
the environment surrounding the issue, either the
natural environment or the competitive
environment
Problems whose solutions are not obvious
Systems Thinking
Learning to see the world systemically
Encourages us to see the whole as well as the parts.
WHOLE   PARTS
 Holistic Thinking
!!!
??
Multiple (often) restricted
views
??
Systems Thinking…
Helps us explore interdependencies and looking for patterns.
Max Barret
Webecoist.com
Systems Thinking…
Helps us understand feedback structures that
change systems over time.
River Fractal - Héctor Garrido
Systems Thinking…
Helps us understand results of our decisions…
http://www.systems-thinking.org/theWay/theWay.htm
The Iceberg
or Vision
Action Model
Level of
Perspective
Leverage
increases
Action Mode
Vision
Generative
Mental Models
Reflective
Systemic Structure
Creative
Patterns
Adaptive
Events
Reactive
What are some Systems Thinking tools?
• Systems Thinking Models
• Behavior Engineering Model (Gilbert, 1996)
• Human Performance System (Rummler,1995)
• Performance Matrix (Gilbert, 1996)
• Relationship Map (Rummler,1995)
Behavior Engineering Model
Human performance system
Performance matrix
Relationship map
SYSTEMS THINKING TOOLS
Causal Loop Diagrams
 A useful way to represent dynamic interrelationships
 Provide a visual representation with which to communicate
that understanding
 Make explicit one's understanding of a system structure Capture the mental model
Components of Causal Loop Diagrams
Variables - an element in a situation which may act or be acted
upon
 Vary up or down over time (not an event)
 Nouns or noun phrases (not action words)
Links / Arrows - show the relationship and the direction
of influence between variables
S's and O's - show the way one variable moves or changes in
relation to another
 S stands for "same direction”
 O stands for "opposite direction”
or B - Balancing feedback loop that seeks equilibrium
or R - Reinforcing feedback loop that amplifies change
Types of Causal Loop Diagrams
Reinforcing Loop
Behavior Over Time
Structure
Employee
Performance
Perf.
Level
S
Supportive
Behavior
S
Supervisor’s
Supportive
Behavior
Unsupportive
Behavior
Time
Types of Causal Loop Diagrams
Balancing Loop
Structure
Desired
Inventory
S
Behavior Over Time
Discrepancy
O
Actual Inventory
100 ++
S
Actual
Inventory
Inventory
Adjustment
Desired Inventory
100
100 - -
S
Time
SYSTEMS THINKING ARCHETYPES
• A class of tools that capture the "common stories”
in systems thinking
• Powerful tools for diagnosing problems and
identifying high leverage interventions that creates
fundamental change
Example of System Thinking Archetype
1. Fixes that Fail / Backfire
2. Limits to Growth/Success
3. Shifting the Burden / Addiction
4. Tragedy of the Commons
5. Drifting Goals
1. Fixes that Fail
S
Behavior Over Time
Problem
Symptom
Fix
O
S
Delay
S
Unintended
Consequences
Time
1. Fixes that Fail
1. Fixes that Fail

Breaking a “Fixes that Fail” cycle usually requires
two actions: acknowledging that the fix is merely
alleviating a symptom, and making a commitment
to solve the real problem now.

A two pronged attack of applying the fix and
planning out the fundamental solution will help
ensure that you don’t get caught in a perpetual
cycle of solving yesterdays “solutions”
2. Limits to Growth
Behavior Over Time
Structure
“Burnout”
S
Growing Action
Target
O
Corrective
Action
S
Perf.
Level
Diminishing
Returns
S
S
Actual Performance
Positive
Reinforcement
Time
2. Limits to Growth
Market Exposure
to Potential
Customers
S
Market
Size
S
S
Potential
Customers
S
O
Sales
3. Shifting the Burden
Quick fixes
Behavior Over Time
+
+
_
Problem/symptom
_
Side effects
Efforts Quick fix
Problem symptom
Capacity of system
to fix itself
+
Source of problem
/Root cause
_
Time
3. Shifting the Burden
Apply patched
Behavior Over Time
+
+
_
Damage of Road
Feeling
of Okay
_
Apply patches
Damage of road
Proper road
construction
Proper Road
Contruction
+
Time
_
3. Shifting the Burden
Shifting the Burden is the first of several archetypes
that illustrate the tension between
1) the attraction (and relative ease and low cost) of
devising symptomatic solutions to visible problems
2) the long-term impact of fundamental solutions
aimed at underlying structures that are producing the
pattern of behavior in the first place.
4. Tragedy of the Commons
Net Gains
for A
S
S
A’s Activity
S
S
Total Activity
O
S
Gain per
Individual
Activity
Resource
Limit
A
S
Time
B
S
B’s Activity
S
Net Gains
for B
S
Time
4. Tragedy of the Commons
S
Fixed
Budget
Investment
in features
S
O
Investment
in Integration
Success from
Product
Investment
Investment
in Integration
S
Success from
Product
Investment
S
Investment
in features
Time
Perceived
Success from
Integration
B
S
O
S
A
S
DELAY
Fixed
Budget
O
O
Time
4. Tragedy of the Commons
Solutions for a “Tragedy of the Commons” never lie
at the individual level
What are the incentives for individuals to persist in
their actions?
Can the long-term collective loss be made more real?
Find ways to reconcile short-term individual rewards
with long-term cumulative consequences
5. Drifting Goals
O
Goal
Pressure to
Lower Goal
S
Goal
S
Gap
Time
S
O
Actual
Corrective Action
S
Delay
5. Drifting Goals


Drifting performance figures are indicators that
the “Drifting Goals” archetype is at work and that
real corrective actions are not being taken.
Understand how goals are set
Thinking in Loops
Sales
are
down
Marketing
Promotions
Orders
Increase
Sales
are
up
Backlogs
Sales
are
Down
Marketing
Promotions
Activity2 : Drawing this event in the pattern of loop diagram (10 min.)
Case study-group work
Activity3 : Drawing this event in the pattern of systems thinking
diagram
1. Airline business (15 min)
2. Coffee shop (20 min)
Systems Thinking
Case Study
Crop Damaging by Insects
Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:

When an insect is eating a crop, the conventional
response is to spray the crop with a pesticide designed to
kill that insect.

Putting aside the limited effectiveness of some pesticides
and the water and soil pollution they can cause, imagine a
perfect pesticide that kills all of the insects against which
it is used and which has no side effects on air, water, or
soil.

Is using this pesticide likely to make the farmer or
company whose crops are being eaten better off?
Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:
If we represent the thinking used by those
applying the pesticides, it would look like this:
Pesticide
Application
O
Insects
Damaging Crops
1.
The letter indicates how the two variables are related: an “s” means they
change in the same direction - if one goes up then the other goes up, and an “o”
means they change in the opposite direction - if one goes up then the other
goes down (or vice versa).
2.
This diagram is read “a change in the amount of pesticide applied causes the
number of insects damaging crops to change in the opposite direction.”
3.
The belief being represented here is that “as the amount of pesticide applied
increases, the number of insects damaging crops decreases”.
Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
The problem of crop damage due to insects often does get better - in the short
term.
Unfortunately, what frequently happens is that in following years the problem of
crop damage gets worse and worse and the pesticide that formerly seemed so
effective does not seem to help anymore.
This is because the insect A that was eating the crops was controlling the
population of another insect B, either by preying on it or by competing with it.
When the pesticide kills the insects A that were eating the crops, it eliminates the
control that those insects were applying on the population of the other insects,
insects B).
Then the population of the insects B that were being controlled explodes and
continue to damage the crops.
Activity4 : Drawing this event in the pattern of systems thinking
diagram (15 min.)
Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:
Reducing Crop Damage by Insects:
So now how do you solve the problem of
Insect B damaging the crop?
Activity5 : Finding the solution (10 min.)
References
Warfield, J. Societal Systems, Intersystems, 1989.
Joseph O’Connor & Ian McDermott. The Art of Systems Thinking, Thorsons,
1997.
Senge, P.M.
The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of the Learning Organization,
Doubleday, 1990.
The Fifth Discipline Fieldbook: Strategies and Tools for Building A Learning
Organization, Doubleday, 1994.
System Dynamics / Systems Thinking Mega Link List
http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/users/gossimit/links/bookmksd.htm
The Way of Systems (System Archetypes)
http://www.outsights.com/systems/theWay/theWay.htm
Daniel Aronson, Overview of Systems Thinking, 1996-8
http://www.thinking.net