Transcript Slide 1

BIG SUN – solar power
from Nord Africa
PROF. DR. PETER NOVAK
ENERGOTECH, LJUBLJANA
SLOVENIA
http://www.let-group.com/iss09/iss.nsf/ae76a4ee10890d4bc1256fb9005f74fe/cc0e39f1fed7a856c125756f0040e1e6/$FILE/BIG%20SUN%20Project%E2%80%93Solar%20power%20from%20%20North%20Africa_s.ppt
Tripoli, January 2006
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ROLE OF ELECTRICITY IN SOCIETIES
• ELECTRICITY is a basic final energy need for present and future
societies
• ELECTRICITY production/ consumption GROWTH in the world in
last 30 years (1972 -2002) was almost linear with yearly additions of
343 TWh/y or 5,6% reaching in 2002 production of 16.054 TWh/y
• ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION PRO CAPITA in 2002 in the world
varies extremely and lies between 27 kWh/cap in Etiopia and
27.764 kWh/cap on Iceland (1: 1000)
• World fossil fuel consumption for the electricity production grew from
20,9% to 34,3% of TPES
• CO2 EMISSONS are growing at the same rate as production of
electricity
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ENERGY SYSTEM FOR
SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT 2
ENERGY SYSTEM FOR
UN-SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
EMISSIONS OF CO2:
24.101,83 Mt/y IN 2002
LIQUID FUEL
LPG
BIOMASS
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ENERGY SYSTEM FOR
SUSTAINABLE
DEVELOPMENT
EMISSIONS IN YEAR 2xxx ?
0,00 CO2
GEOTHERMAL
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ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN EU
Predicted installed capacity of different generating
capacities in 15 EU states (GW)*
2000
Nuclear
136.4
Coal and Lignite
166.1
Open Cycle multi-fired 68.7
Open Cycle IPP
33.1
GTCC
59
Small GT
25.2
Clean Coal and Lignite 0.5
Biomass-Waste
4.4
Fuel Cells
0
Hydro-Renewables 119.2
TOTALS
612.6
2010
135.1
101.1
60.2
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208.7
45.2
3.4
4.7
0
133.7
717.1
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*The Liberalisation of Europe's Electricity Markets –pg.12, 2000
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2020
117.2
36.9
122.3
20.5
305
79.2
26.6
6
0
158
871.7
P. Novak: BIG SUN - solar power from
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2030 growth %
45.6 - 66,5 ??
9.5 - 94,3 ??
244.6 256
15.1 - 54,4
354.3 500,5 ??
96.6 283,3 ??
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7300 !!!
6.5
47,7
1.3
--170.7
43,2
981.2
60,2
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EU RE TARGET
Renewable Electricity Targets In the EU White Paper[1].
Actual in 1995
Type of Energy
TWh
Total
2,366
Projection for 2010
%Total
TWh
% Total
2,870
Pre -Kyoto
Wind
4
0.2
80
2.8
Total Hydro
307
13
355
12.4
Photovoltaic’s
0.03
-
3
0.1
Biomass
22.5
0.95
230
8.0
Geothermal
3.5
0.15
7
0.2
Total Renewable Energies
Instaled power (Cf~0,44)
GW
337
14.3
675
23.5
87,3
New generating capacity: fossil fuel to 2010
to 2030
1] White Paper, table 3, page 50
[
174,8
+87,5
104,5 GW*
368,6 GW*
* 50 % new, 50 % replacement
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
• SOLAR TOWER (molten salt-sodium, potassium nitrate) ~ 900 °C
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ONLY EXPERIMENTAL UNIT 10 MW
LOW EFFICIENCY ~ 7%
INVESTMENT NOT KNOWN
MAINTENANCE OF HELIOSTATS
HIGH TEMPERATURE CONVERSION
USEFULL FOR SINFUEL
Project: 40 MW thermal – 15 MWe/24 h; 15$c/kWh
Investment: 100 M$
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
• PARABOLIC TROUGH (thermal oil) ~400 °C
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Real SEGS 354 MW – 20 year of operation
Efficiency: ~ 10,8%,y; 20% dayly max.
New plant eff.:: ~ 15-16%,y
Solar field eff. up to 60%
investment: $2000/kW for SEGS
Investment: $ 850/kW for ISCCS
Maintenance: acceptable
Hybridization up to 25%, thermal storage
Thermal storage costs:~ $20/ kWh
SEGS- Solar Electric Generating System
ISCCS – Integrated Solar Combined-Cycle System
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
For medium power, simple design, reliable (?)
Solar chimney
Low efficency, integrated storage,
aproppriate for hybridization with CSP,
little experience
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SOLAR THERMAL SYSTEM EFFICIENCY
Basic Research Needs for solar energy utilisation, ANL Workshop April 2005
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Solar electricity production POSSIBILITIES
in LIBYA
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LAND
SOLAR IRRADIATION
AVAILABILITY OF TECHNOLOGIES
ELECTRICITY DISPATCH
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MAP of LYBIA
1,759,540.00 sq km,
1% arable land
Land for ~ 700 GW PP
200 x 200 km
~1542 km
~1667 km
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DIREKT SOLAR IRRADIATION on the world map
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CLIMATIC DATA FOR NORTH - EAST LIBYA
Monthly average climatic data for 31,5°N; 23,5°E
NASA surface meteorology and solar energy
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kWh/m2; m/s
8
7
6
30
Air temperature: 19,1°C
25
Insulation on 31°tilted surface:
6,18 kWh/m2 (6,6 kWh/m2 opt.)
20
5
15
4
3
2
YEARLY AVERAGE:
10
Insol. Hor.kWh/m2
Diff. Insol. kWh/m2
Insol 31° kWh/m2
wind m/s, 50m
temp.°C
Wind speed, height 50 m:
5,01 m/s (86% > [3÷ 10] m/s)
5
1
Dec
Nov
Oct
Sep
Aug
Jul
Jun
May
Apr
Mar
Feb
0
Jan
0
Months
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PV production NORTH - EAST LIBYA
Estimated solar electricity from 1 kWp PV, tilted surface
31°, perf. ratio 0,75 or 1kW SEGS
7
200
kWh
5
4
100
3
2
50
Air temperature: 19,1°C
Insulation on 31°tilted surface:
6,18 kWh/m2 (6,6 kWh/m2 opt.)
6
150
YEARLY AVERAGE:
opt. angle
month 1 kWp
day 1kWp.
Yearly production: 1541 kWhe
Land use: ~ 25 m2/ kWp
1
0
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
Months
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DESIGN CONCEPT
• ESTIMATED PRODUCTION CAPACITY
• EU 25 ESTIMATED ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION IN 2010: > 3000
TWh (2711 TWh in 2002)
• INVESTMENT PLAN TO 2030: 184, 3 GW FOR REPLACEMENT
AND 184,3 GW NEW PP
• RENEWABLE ENERGY SHEAR: 87,5 GW
• In 25 years 14 744 MW PP to be build per year !
• 50 % of them can be build in SAHARA as
SUSTAINABLE, POLLUTION FREE ELECTRICITY
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DESIGN CONCEPT
SOLAR THERMAL POWER and PV PLANT AREA
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1000 MW unit, consisting of: 1 x 200 MW solar chimney: 5000 x 5000 m
3 x 200 MW ISCCS:
1 x 200 MW PV
3 x 6100 x 700 m
1 x 5000 x 500 m
Total land use for 1 GW plant: 6800 x 6400 m = 43, 52 km2
Total efficiency: solar chimney: 3,0 %
ISCCS:
12,5%
PV:
10,5%
Capacity factor:
0,5
Yearly electricity production: 3,862 TWh
Number of units build per year: 7
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DESIGN CONCEPT
2 x 100 MW PV2 x 100 PV
Solar
chimney
1 x 200
MW
200 MW
P. Novak, Energotech, SI
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100MW
MWISCCS
ISCCS
66xx100
SOLAR POWER STATION 1 GW
SOLAR POWER PLANT 1 GW + ~200 WG
+ ~ 200 WIND TURBINE (~ 7X7 KM)
Location: 31°N;23°E; Land use:~ 7 x 7 km
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
design data
ISCCS 200 MW: 773,5 GWh/y, Cf = 50%
673 ha (2600 x 2600 m); A= 33,6 m2/kW
 ~ 14 %, costruction time: 12 months
Solar tower 200 MW: 350 ÷400 GWh/y, Cf ~ 57%
(700 ÷ 800 GWh/y)
Land area: 1920 ha (D =5000 m, h =1000 m),
A ~ 98 m2/kWe
~ 2 ÷ (4) %, Construction time: 34 months
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DESIGN CONCEPT
To overcome the solar intermitance a HYBRIDIZATION
OF SOLAR POWER PLANT is needed.
This can be done with:
• FOSSIL FUEL PP
• GEOTHERMAL PP
• LOW SPEED WIND TURBINE
• SHORT THERM SOLAR STORAGE
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CONVERSION TECHNOLOGIES
SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
ISCCS – INTEGRATED SOLAR COMBINED-CYCLE SYSTEM
Low pressure
solar steam
Variante: ORC
geothermal hot rock
High
pressure
solar
steam
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CONCENTRATING SOLAR POWER ECONOMICS
SOLAR THERMAL ELECTRICITY
Debt Interest Rate: 9,5%
Equity IRR: 15%
Performans waranty: 1-5 y
Peak capacity factor on 6h basis: 90 -95% with fossil hybrid or thermal storage
Annual capacity factor: Cf ~ 40-50 %
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CPS ECONOMICS
SOLAR THERMAL POWER PLANT - ISCCS
(www.energylan.sandia.gov/sunlab/overview.htlm)
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How to start ?
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
With donation of the land to the one of international organization
(UNESCO; UNDP; UNEP) – 99 year contrac
Organizing the international activities to build the first unit from
donation and privat/public partnership
Seling the green electricity to the Europe and other interested
countrie
Clean income should be used for activities of UN org. (e.g. UNESCO
tc.)
Benefits:
1. UN organization become finantial les depended to help the
African countries
2. Europe will be supplied with sustainable electricity from
independent organization
3. Expirence will be collected for the next units
4. The next units can be commercial
Questions?
1. Can we find the donor?
2. Will the UNO accept the proposal and will be in position to realize
the job
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CONCLUSIONS
The question of solar electricity production on large
scale in Nord Africa is not:
“Can we do it?”
but
“Why don’t WE?”
THANK YOU
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