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NIDOS Annual Seminar Implications for Scotland In a post-2015 & post-Referendum Era What do the Referendum and the new post-2015 Framework mean for us in Scotland? James Mackie, ECDPM, Maastricht, Netherlands 23 October 2014 Outline • • • • The Conference Post-Referendum and Post-2015 International cooperation The UN post-2015 process • Goals & Transformation agenda • Finance for development • The European post-2015 process • Common positions, Dev & Env • Outstanding challenges • Opportunities for Scotland • International cooperation • PCD – policy coherence for development • Post-2015 – Action inside Scotland ECDPM Page 2 The Conference • Aims: to inform, to reflect and to debate • Very dynamic context – a threshold moment • Post-2015 debate internationally & at home • Post-Referendum • • Further devolution – The Smith Commission Creating a fairer Scotland – tackling inequality • Widespread reflection on development policy • Scottish Government • UK Parliament –IDC ‘Beyond’-Aid inquiry • EU level debate on post-2015 – new leadership • Engaging with Scottish public in 2015 • Also 10 Years since Making Poverty History • How to use dynamism: youth, diasporas, … • How best to raise public awareness on 2015? ECDPM Page 3 Post-Referendum & post-2015 • Post Referendum • Doing what we do already but better • • Expand Scottish international development? Or focus more on increasing quality? • Dynamism of the Referendum debate • Focus on creating a better Scotland • What does this mean for international cooperation? • Post-2015 • Reframe global agenda for development • Build on the MDGs but go further • Wide agenda but can it be made manageable and motivating like the MDGs? • Wider agenda has implications for action inside Europe and inside Scotland ECDPM Page 4 International Cooperation • Debate on development has broadened • Lessons from the MDG experience • • • Focus on poverty reduction good but too limited Development aid not enough on its own Demand for development – not just poverty focus • Experience shows importance of other issues • • • • Security, governance, trade, international financial flows, global financial stability … Our own internal policies with external impact PCD – policy coherence for development – is key Sustainable development has 3 aspects • So post-2015 framework has to cover a lot more • But we also need to think differently about development – it is not just about aid ECDPM Page 5 Our Collective Interest - new ETTG book www.ettg.eu How will we judge success of new EU leadership? By 2020 will the EU have helped to tackle 5 challenges?: 1. The world economy: is it becoming more equitable, resilient and democratic? 2. Is world set on a more sustainable path? 3. Is world more peaceful and secure? 4. Is world better governed and more democratic? 5. Have poverty and inequality declined? 10/10/14 6 The UN post-2015 process • 2 working groups reported during summer: • OWG on the goals and target – 19 July 2014 • ICESDF on the finance and means of implementation – 15 August 2014 • UNGA – ~70 states supported OWG report • UN Secretary General Synthesis Report • Due end November • Negotiations on goals start early 2015 • Co-chairs: Ireland and Kenya • Three key moments in 2015 • Finance: UN Financing Conf. – Addis, July • Goals: UN-GA – New York, September • Climate: UNFCCC COP21 – Paris, December ECDPM Page 7 The Transformative Agenda UN High Level Panel Report May 2013 • Five big transformative shifts 1. Leave no one behind 2. Out sustainable development at the core 3. Transform economies for jobs and inclusive growth 4. Build peace and effective, open and accountable institutions for all 5. Forge a new global partnership • But what does this mean in practice? • Need to go further than just reducing poverty • MDGs too focused on tackling the symptoms and not enough on the causes ECDPM Page 8 Goals proposed by OWG ECDPM 1. End poverty 2. Achieve food security and improved nutrition 3. Ensure healthy lives and well-being 4. Inclusive and equitable education 5. Gender equality and empower women and girls 6. Availability of water & sanitation 7. Affordable, reliable & sustainable energy 8. Inclusive & sustainable growth 9. Resilient infrastructure, inclusive industrialisation 10. Reduce inequality within & among countries 11. Make cities inclusive, safe, resilient & sustainable 12. Sustainable consumption & production 13. Urgent action to combat climate change 14. Sustainable use of oceans, seas & marine resources 15. Sustainable use of terrestrial ecosystems 16.Peaceful & inclusive societies, justice for all, inclusive institutions 17. Strengthen finance, MoI, global partnership & PCSD Page 9 Development finance • • • • MDGs became very focused on ODA Financing gap notion – Jeff Sachs But have to think ‘Beyond Aid’ (ERD2013) There are a lot other types of finance • • • • • Domestic resources Domestic capital Foreign direct investment Remittances South-South cooperation • Finance cannot solve everything • Policies important – national & international • How to make most effective use of finance ECDPM Page 10 financing for LICs throughout the period 2002 2011 w than doubled from an estimated $29bn in 2002 to reach revenue have been achieved largely through the expa efforts, as the average LIC has only modestly increase period. Private international finance has grown at the having made a very significant contribution), and reach by 2011. Public international finance has seen the most from $15bn in 2002 to $39bn in 2011, and remains a ve Trends in development finance (2011 US$Bn) Figure 4.2 Trends in development finance (public Figure 4:1 Trends in development finance (public domestic, domestic, private domestic, private domestic, private private international, and public international sources) obtained by developing countries (2011 international, and public international sources) $, billion), 2002 2011 All developing countries Low Income Countries obtained by LICs (2011 $, billion), 2002 2011 Sources: ODA+OOF OECD DAC CRS Table 1; Remittances and private international capital, GFCF and FDI World Development Indicators (WDI); public revenue IMF FAD database; Note: For ODA, OOF, remittances and private international capital data are drawn directly from relevant sources; for public revenues, data have been calculated by the authors using IMF FAD data on tax revenue/GDP and WDI data for GDP. 4.2.2 Finance trends by country group 63 This section discusses how finance flows have evolved for each of the income country groupings, by analysing their absolute levels (in real terms - 2011 dollars) and their levels as a proportion of GDP across our four categories. It shows that public domestic resources have been the ERD2014 most significant(forthcoming) Source: sources of financing for all the country income groups (especially LMICs and UMICs), with private domestic sources at levels not far below these. It also illustrates the impressive growth in private ECDPM Page 11 international sources, with public international sources being the most modest but still of major significance for LICs. Finally, the analysis shows that despite significant growth in development financing sources achieved by LICs, their levels of finance are dwarfed by those of MICs (especially Financial flows by income level (% of GDP) ECDPM Source: ERD2014 (forthcoming) Page 12 The European debate • High level of interest – commitment to MDGs • Commission (DEVCO+ENV) pushing a strong common EU position • A Decent Life for All – 2 June 2014 [COM 335] • Earlier policy papers in Feb & Dec 2013 • EU generally satisfied with UN process so far • Council conclusions in Dec 2014 • Outstanding challenges: • Goals & targets – coverage vs. number • Global partnership – Finance and other MoI • Universality and differentiation ECDPM I. Targets for in-country development II. Targets for helping other countries III. Targets for supporting global public goods Page 13 Questions for Scotland • Devolution – does S.Govt. need more powers? • Scottish international development programme • Expanding the effort – does that help? • Diversification or is it better to focus more? • Improving effectiveness – key principles to use: ownership, alignment and harmonisation • PCD – internal policies that affect others • Many such policies decided at EU level: • Trade, Agriculture, Fisheries, Migration, … • But Scottish attitudes & behaviour affect them • New issues: consumption, waste, renewables • Achieving the post-2015 targets in Scotland • Inequality & poverty: domestic & international ECDPM Page 14 Thank you [email protected] www.ecdpm.org www.slideshare.net/ecdpm Page 15