Transcript Planning and Decision-Making

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Planning and Decision-Making
How do human factors influence
the CIMIC process?
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
1
My background
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1998 M.A. Political Science – Münster
Social Science Center Berlin
2004 Ph.D.
2008 Federal Academy for Security Policy
2010 Regensburg University of Applied Science
 1997 Scientific analyst for security organization
 2003 IABG HF Team Program Manager
 Consultant
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
2
Take home messages
 Human factors are relevant, crucial, and often
neglected.
 Planning and decision-making in CIMIC is
problem solving.
 CI ≠ MI - SOP business.
 CIMIC needs a shared situational awareness.
 CIMIC means bridging the cultural differences.
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
3
Way ahead
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What is Human Factor?
Cognitive psychology: action organization!
Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
Situational awareness – common and shared?!
Logic of failure…and more.
Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
Empirical Findings – Design Groups
Conclusion
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
4
 Human Factor is…
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
5
Way ahead
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What is Human Factor?
Cognitive psychology: action organization!
Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
Situational awareness – common and shared?!
Logic of failure…and more.
Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
Empirical Findings – Design Groups
Conclusion
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
6
More Psychology in Political Science
 Information processing “…is wide open to irrational, nonrational
intuitive, and affective influences, biases, and errors, especially in
environments and issue-areas like international politics where
uncertainty and complexity prevail.“(1)
 „Ich halte die mangelnde Aufmerksamkeit der IB für diese
Theorietradition, die manchmal bis zur totalen Abwehr
reicht, für einen großen Fehler.“(2)
 Situation factors:
 Time constraints, information constraints, ambiguity, familiarity,
accountability, risk, stress, dynamic vs. static-setting, interactive setting (3)
1(Vertzberger 1990:343) 2(Krell 2003:357) 3(Mintz&DeRouen Jr. 2010:26)
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
European Politics Summer Term 2011
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Wahrnehmung
Bedarf
Zielbibliothek
(Ziel-Schemata)
Bedürfnis
Bewertung
Lernen (bei
Erfolg/Misserfolg)
Motivanreicherung
Motivation
Erwartung
Wahrnehmung
Sek. Bedarf
Sek. Bedürfnis
Bewertung
Erwartung
Bewertung
Lernen (bei
Erfolg/Misserfolg)
Absicht
Bewertung
Lernen (bei
Erfolg/Misserfolg)
Absichtsbibliothek
(Absichts-Skelette)
Lernen (bei
Erfolg/Misserfolg)
Teil- & Zwischenziele;
"Universaloperatoren"
Bewertung
Lernen (bei
Erfolg/Misserfolg)
Sek. Motivation
Absichtsgenerierung
Plan
Planung
Auswahldruck
Lernen (bei
hoch/ Kurzschluß
Erfolg/Misserfolg)
Lernen (bei
Erfolg/Misserfolg)
Bewertung
Planungsbibliothek
(Plan-Skelette)
Handlung
.
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
Bewertung
Lernimplus
(Erfolg/Misserfolg)
European
Politics Summer Term 2011
.
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Basis of the Modeling Approach:
Theory of Human Action Organization (Dörner)
Internal Factors
Intentions
External Factors
Goal Elaboration
Task / Problem
Information Gathering
Perception
Mental Modelling
Prognosis
(Protocol-)Memory
Environment
Group
Planning
Competence
Decision / Acting
Frictions
Effect Control
Emotions
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
Time Pressure
(Self-)Reflection
MS Summer School - June 2011
12
Dörner, Boyd, and HDV
Goal Elaboration
Lagefeststellung
Information Gathering
Observe
Mental Modelling
Prognosis
Orient
Planung
Planning
Decide
Befehlsgebung
Decision / Acting
Act
Effect Control
Kontrolle
(Self-)Reflection
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
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The Policy Cycle
Evaluation
AgendaSetting
Policy Cycle
Policy
Formulation
Implementation
Policy
Decision
(John 1998, Sabatier 1999, McCormick 2006, Richardson 2006, Hague & Harrop 2007)
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
14
Way ahead

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





What is Human Factor?
Cognitive psychology: action organization!
Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
Situational awareness – common and shared?!
Logic of failure…and more.
Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
Empirical Findings – Design Groups
Conclusion
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
15
Intentions, objectives, actions
Safety
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
Security
Certainty Power Cohesion
MS Summer School - June 2011
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Intentions, objectives, actions
Reliability
Competencies /
Skills
Protection
Expectations /
Scenarios
Safety
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
Security
Alliance /
Coalition
Certainty Power Cohesion
MS Summer School - June 2011
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Intentions, objectives, actions
Economic Welfare
Electoral Success
Domestic Support
Social Welfare
Standards
Infrastructure
Safety
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
Building Coalition
Security
Certainty Power Cohesion
MS Summer School - June 2011
18
Intentions, objectives, actions
Economic Welfare
Electoral Success
Domestic Support
Social Welfare
Standards
Infrastructure
Safety
Past / History
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
Security
Instrumentality
Goal Situation
Building Coalition
Certainty Power Cohesion
Start Situation
Remaining Time
Available Operators / Plan
Estimated Time
MS Summer School - June 2011
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Intentions, objectives, actions
Economic Welfare
Electoral Success
Domestic Support
Social Welfare
Standards
Infrastructure
Safety
Building Coalition
Security
Certainty Power Cohesion
Urgency Importance Competence Action Tendency
Past / History
Instrumentality
Goal Situation
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
Start Situation
Remaining Time
Available Operators / Plan
Estimated Time
MS Summer School - June 2011
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Intentions, objectives, actions
Economic cooperation
in a specific domain
Economic Welfare
Political cooperation
in a specific domain
Military cooperation
in a specific domain
Electoral Success
Domestic Support
Social Welfare
Standards
Infrastructure
Safety
Building Coalition
Security
Certainty Power Cohesion
Urgency Importance Competence Action Tendency
Past / History
Instrumentality
Goal Situation
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
Start Situation
Remaining Time
Available Operators / Plan
Estimated Time
MS Summer School - June 2011
21
Way ahead








What is Human Factor?
Cognitive psychology: action organization!
Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
Situational awareness – common and shared?!
Logic of failure…and more.
Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
Empirical Findings – Design Groups
Conclusion
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
22
Situation Awareness - Endsley
http://www.google.de/url?source=imgres&ct=img&q=http://images.wikia.com/psychology/images/6/61/Endsley-SA-model.jpg&sa=X&ei=RGvATc9Ljca0Buqy3PIO&ved=0CAQQ8wc4Aw&usg=AFQjCNEi4OkT4z0EeoC5fI3sd5oYutplGg
(Endsley 2003)
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
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Common understanding
Expert
Group 2
Expert
Group 4
Expert
Group 3
Expert
Group1
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Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
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Expert
Group 5
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=
MS Summer School - June 2011
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Shared understanding
Committee
Committee
Committee
Committee
Committee
+
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
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+
=
MS Summer School - June 2011
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Common
+
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=
+
+
+
+
=
+
+
+
+
=
Shared
+
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
26
Way ahead








What is Human Factor?
Cognitive psychology: action organization!
Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
Situational awareness – common and shared?!
Logic of failure…and more.
Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
Empirical Findings – Design Groups
Conclusion
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
28
Logic of Failure (Dörner, Schaub et al.)
Goal Elaboration
Thematic Vagabonding
Information Gathering
Information Channelling
Mental Modelling
Reductive Hypothesis
Prognosis
Linear Extrapolation
Planning
Plan Optimism
Decision / Acting
Over-Dosage
Effect Control
Neglect
(Self-)Reflection
Lack of Lessons Learned
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
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Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
30
Group Think
A
Decision makers Constitute a
Cohesive Group
B-1
Structural Faults of Organization
1.Insulation of the group
2.Lack of tradition of imperial
leadership
3.Lack of norms requiring methodical
procedures
4.Homogeneity of members social
background and ideology
etc.
Concurrence-Seeking
C
Symptoms of Groupthink
Type I: Overestimating the
group
1.
Illusion of invulnerability
2.
Belief in inherent morality of the group
Type II: Closed-mindedness
1.
Collective Rationalizations
2.
Stereotypes of out groups
Type III: Pressures toward uniformity
1.
Self-censorship
2.
illusion of unanimanity
3.
Direct pressure on dissenters
4.
Self-appointed mind guards
D
Symptoms of Defective
Decision-making
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Gross omissions in survey of objectives
Gross omission in surevey of
alternatives
Poor information search
Selective bias in processing information
at hand
Failure to reconsinder originally rejected
alternatives
Failure to examine some major costs
and risks of preferred choice
Failure to work out detailed
implementation, monitoring and
contingency plans
B-2
Provocative Situational Context
1.High stress from external threats with
low hope of a better solution than the
leader’s
2.Low self-esteem temporarily induced
by:
1. Recent failures that make
members’ inadequacies salient.
2. Excessive Difficulties on current
decision-making tasks that lower
each member’s sense of selfefficacy
3. Moral dilemmas: apparent lack
of feasible alternatives except
ones that violate ethical
standards
etc.
E
Low Probability of Successful
Outcome
(Janis 1989:59)
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
33
Way ahead








What is Human Factor?
Cognitive psychology: action organization!
Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
Situational awareness – common and shared?!
Logic of failure…and more.
Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
Empirical Findings – Design Groups
Conclusion
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
34
NNEC (p. 64)
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
35
NNEC (p.66)
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
36
NNEC (p.70)
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
37
Way ahead








What is Human Factor?
Cognitive psychology: action organization!
Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
Situational awareness – common and shared?!
Logic of failure…and more.
Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
Empirical Findings – Design Groups
Conclusion
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
38
Badke-Schaub / Frankenberg
Badke-Schaub,
and
modelling
cooperative design by the critical situation method.
Prof.
Dr. Bresinsky P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing
MS Summer
School
- June 2011
39 In:
Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.
Cooperative solution search
Prof.
Dr. Bresinsky P.;
Badke-Schaub,
MS Summer
School
- June 2011
40 In:
Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing
and
modelling
cooperative design by the critical situation method.
Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.
Deficient goal analysis
Prof.
Dr. Bresinsky P.;
Badke-Schaub,
MS Summer
School
- June 2011
41 In:
Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing
and
modelling
cooperative design by the critical situation method.
Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.
Successful solution search
Prof.
Dr. Bresinsky P.;
Badke-Schaub,
MS Summer
School
- June 2011
42 In:
Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing
and
modelling
cooperative design by the critical situation method.
Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.
Successful solution decision
Prof.
Dr. Bresinsky P.;
Badke-Schaub,
MS Summer
School
- June 2011
43 In:
Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing
and
modelling
cooperative design by the critical situation method.
Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.
Deficient solution decision
Badke-Schaub,
and
modelling
cooperative design by the critical situation method.
Prof.
Dr. Bresinsky P.; Frankenberger, E. (2002): Analysing
MS Summer
School
- June 2011
44 In:
Le travail humain 65 (4), S. 293.
Way ahead








What is Human Factor?
Cognitive psychology: action organization!
Intentions, objectives, and actions?!
Situational awareness – common and shared?!
Logic of failure…and more.
Conceptual Findings – N2M2C2
Empirical Findings – Design Groups
Conclusion
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
45
Take home messages
 Human factors are relevant, crucial, and often
neglected.
 Planning and decision-making in CIMIC is
problem solving.
 CI ≠ MI - SOP business.
 CIMIC needs a shared situational awareness.
 CIMIC means bridging the cultural differences.
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
46
Questions / Discussion
http://www.guy-sports.com/fun_pictures/left_right.jpg
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
47
Back Up
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
48
CI / CS type of reaction (Thomas)
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Ignorant
Universalist
Man of action
Potenzializer
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
49
Phases of cultural shock (Oberg 1960)
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Honeymoon
Crisis
Recovery
Adjustment
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
50
 „Intercultural competence requires an ability to
move beyond sterotypes and to respond to the
individual.“ (Lustig / Koester 2003, S. 154)
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
51
NNEC (p. 64)
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
52
NNEC (p.66)
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
53
NNEC (p.70)
Prof. Dr. Bresinsky
MS Summer School - June 2011
54