Transcript Document

ECommerce Institute, LLC
San Diego, California
“Future”
also known as
“NOW”
Forget the Internet!
Need 10 teraflops?
Please Turn it ON -- TeraGrid
Network provides
13,6 trillion floating-points
operations per second (teraflops)
TeraGrid
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More than 3,300 Itanium processors using Linux from IBM
– More than 13.6 trillion instructions per second
– More than 450 terabytes of storage
– Operational 2002
Applications
– Molecular modeling for disease detection, cures and drug
discovery
– Automobile crash simulations
– Research on alternative energy sources
– Climate and atmospheric simulations for more accurate
weather predictions
“The real long term is that this becomes the problem-solving
mechanism for society.”
Ken Kennedy
Grids
In the first phase we got the wires up
and hooked in all computers
Then, we started hooking in all online
documents
Now…we’ll be hooking in
EVERYTHING ELSE…
Seamless computational universe
“…emergence of a new infrastructure
upon which … the whole economy will
be built…”
Larry Smarr
California Institute of
Telecom and Information Technology
New Human Experience
Virtual World as … UTILITY
It is commonly observed that people overestimate the shortterm impact of change but underestimate long-term effects
WWW.EU-DataGrid.Org
“Imagine that you could plug your computer into the wall
and have access to huge computing resources
immediately, just as you plug in a lamp to get instant
light.”
“Possible outreaches are: providing access to the most
powerful computing facilities to remote and less
developed areas…”
Preparing an “E-Utility”
Project eLiza and Grids From IBM
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Project eLiza – building self-managing systems
– Server farms protect themselves from hackers
– Heal themselves when something breaks
– Upgrade themselves as needed
– Continue operating without human intervention
Grids – link vast computer resources
– Connect all of IBM’s worldwide data centers
– Provide computing resources on demand
– Creating a huge virtual computing environment
– “This is about the next big thing” IBM
Standards from Globus, Global Grid Forum, W3C, & OMG
Are you in?
Uncle Bill is in -- Windows XP
translation
 Cray, HP, Sun, Fujitsu, Hitachi, NEC, et
al

"Caught up in the growth of the internet, we seem
to have lost sight of the earth's deteriorating
health. It would be a mistake to confuse the
vibrancy of the virtual world with the increasingly
troubled state of the real world."
Lester R. Brown, Worldwatch
“We used to live in villages. We’re moving
toward a global village now, so perhaps it’s
inevitable … we will know all about our
neighbors again.”
Carole Lane, Naked in Cyberspace
Bioinformatics
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New field using IT to better understand biology
– Human Genome project has created vast databases
– Data mining to find new medical treatments and drugs
“when and in which tissues of the body various genes of the body are
turned on, the shapes of proteins the genes encode, how the
proteins interact with one another and the role those interactions play
in disease.”
Scientific American 7/01
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Blue Gene, IBM’s $100 million bio-supercomputer
– >1 quadrillion operations per second
– One petaflop (million billion floating point operations/second)
– If applied to bandwidth, would download the contents on the entire
Internet in one second
– Faster than the top 500 computers in the world put together
– Fits in two refrigerator-sized units
North Carolina Bioinformatics Grid
(BioGrid)
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Teraflop supercomputer and petabytes of storage
To analyze vast genome databases
North Carolina agencies in partnership with IBM (Nov/2001)
Uses TCP/IP to connect all computing resources
– All resources accessed transparently as if in the same
building
– Using advanced scheduling and management software
– Network links at 10 gbps
 Minimum speed to participate is 2.5 gbps
Most Grids Today Are
Government Sponsored

UK National Grid for EGovernment is in operation
– IBM and Oxford design
Grid Sampling
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Access Grid
European Data Grid
Information Power Grid
iVDGL
NEESgrid
TeraGrid
UK National Grid
Unicore Grid
Free Space Optics Vendors
Company
AirFiber
AstroTerra
Canon
CBL GmbH
fSona
Jolt
Lucent
LightPointe
LSA Photonics
Optical Access
OrAccess
PAV Data
Plaintree Systems
Silcom
Tellaire
Terabeam
Bandwidth
622 mbps
10-155 mbps
25-622 mbps
2-155 mbps
155-622 mbps
up to 155 mbps
up to 2.5 gbps
20-622 mbps
155 mbps
up to 1.25 gbps
up to 622 mbps
up to 270 mbps
100 mbps
10-155 mbps
up tp 100 mbps
up to 1 gbps
Range
.2-.5 km
.5-3.75 km
2 km
2 km
4 km
2 km
n/a
4 km
3+ KM
varies
n/a
6 km
2.5 km
.3 km
n/a
1 km
Sky Bridge
Alcatel.
Loral, Qualcomm
80 satellites – fixed broadband multimedia
CDMA
2 mbps upstream
Up to 20 mbps downstream
Higher rates via channel aggregation
Capacity for more than 20 million users
No on-board data processing
–$700
terminals
–200 terrestrial gateways
Service
2001 for $6 billion
What is the Internet?
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Tiered Internet Service Providers
AT&T
DT
NAP
BT
CAP
Internet Data Center
– High-value applications require a data center
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Opens opportunities for selling
– Disaster recovery services
– Content delivery networks
– Storage services
– Managed services of many types
– Becoming a NAP and CAP for your area
– Will attract international players
I-21: The World's Fastest Network
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The World’s Fastest Networks
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1.28 tbps – terabits per second
– 1,280,000,000,000
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The world’s only Petabit network
– 1,228,000,000,000,000 bps
Internet To Mars
InterPlaNetary (IPN) Internet
Direct Retinal
Connection
Wearable Computers
SENDING
Magic Book explores the transition between Physical Reality,
Augmented Reality (AR), and immersive Virtual Reality (VR) in a
collaborative setting.
“ Do not be bullied by authoritative pronouncements
about what machines will never do. Such
statements are based on pride, not fact”
Marvin Minsky, MIT (1982)
“In the past, shoes could stink.
In the present, shoes could blink.
In the future, shoes will think.”
Students, MIT
The Paradigm Shift
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Decade Dominance
– 1980s - PC underpinned by
microprocessors
– 1990s - World Wide Web underpinned by
cheap lasers
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Emphasis shift from processing to access
– 2000s?
Sensors and Nanotechnology
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The paradigm shifts from processing to
access
– The next wave: interaction
– People accessing people in information-
rich environments
Agents – Anthropomorphic
Computing
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Anthropomorphic Computing
– Ask Jeeves – offers a list of questions it can
answer
– Red from Neuromedia – “Chatterbot”
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Demos automated customer service
– Klone Server from Big Science
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Voice Recognition
– ViaVoice (IBM)
– Naturally Speaking (Dragon)
– Bruzard from MIT shows emotions
Technologies Underpinning Sensors
MicroElectoMechanical Systems
(MEMS)
 Piezo-Materials
 Micromachines
 Very large scale intergration (VLSI)
video
 Other Sensor technologies
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Next Wave: Things that Think
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You haven’t seen anything yet.
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Never mind PCs and mainframes. Think photocopiers,
refineries, heart monitors, cameras - and just about anything
else that can hold a computer chip. Plug a constellation of
devices into the Internet and the myriad gadgets of everyday life
will get smarter and more useful. When people hook up their
PCs to the World Wide Web, they transform glorified typewriters
into windows on a world of information. The Internet can do the
same for countless other things and forge new bonds with
customers at the same time, a growing number of companies
believe.
Micronodes connected to Grids
Thanks to wireless revolution,
micronodes are everywhere
Billions of endpoints -- sensors,
actuators, embedded processors,
monitoring the environment and your
bodies.
Decade of Interaction
Camera
Camera
NETWORK
PC
Basis for New Interactions
PC
Search Economies Will Dominate
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Net: search economies will
supercede distribution economies
– Huge efficiencies
– Find a digital camera with 4X zoom and
500,000+ pixels
– Netmarket.com vs. physical visits
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Save consumers’ time!
Search Economies Will
Dominate
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Net: search economies will supercede
distribution economies
SO WHAT?
Does IT just happen to you?
or
Do you make IT happen?
Define Required Core Competencies
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Identify and/or Build a set of Core
Competencies
Core Competence Definition
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Combination of particular technical
and management capabilities
– Provide leadership position in
development of generic or core products
– Results in sustainable competitive
advantage
– NOT simply possession of a specific
technical or management capability
Honda Example
Honda in 1950s
Small Engine Design
Focused on a limited
set of activities in
order to achieve a
leadership position
(worldwide) - high
quality/low cost
efficient small engines
Moderate Scale Assembly
with Outsourcing
Creative Distribution
MOTORCYLCLES
Honda in 1980s
A necessary product
for crowded, low-income
postwar Japan
Small Engine Design
Dominant in key activities world leader in high quality
small engines
Outsourcing used to
achieve all around
“best-in-world” status
Moderate Scale Assembly
with Outsourcing
Creative Distribution
Motorcycles
Small
cars
Pumps
Generators
Outboards
Lawnmowers
Snowblowers
Creating A Successful Project List
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Enabling Infrastructure
E-Enabled Government
Laws and Policies
Enabling Infrastructure Projects
1. Choose a “National Strategic Intent”
2. Define required core competencies and a related
implementation plan
3. Detail education/training plan
4. Design and implement the network infrastructure using
latest technologies
5. Form an Vertical Accelerator-type of Incubator focused on
Strategic Intent companies
6. Open a regional Technology Stock Exchange
7. Build electronic marketplaces to serve regional
stakeholders -- explore GRIDS!
…More projects
E-Enabled
Government Projects
1.IT Governance
2.Internet Data Center
3.Government Portals
4.Marketing Plan
5.Technology Tracking
6.Public Key Infrastructure
Law
and Policy Projects
1.Review and extend laws
2.Review and extend policies
“You cannot predict the future,
but you can build it.”
Alan Kay
The Opportunity
Where are we?
Who are we?
Where are we going?
Functional
Layer
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Step 5
Companies
Communities
Electronic Joint
Ventures
Networked
Economies
Global Electronic
Marketplace
Legacy Integration Tools
Performance Utilities
Intranet Applications
Workgroup Applicatons
Web enabled Applic.
Education/Training (CBT)
Web Consumer Applic’ns
Interest Group Applic’ns
Industry Vertical Applic’ns
Horizontal Applicaitons
Electronic Trading Floors
Generic Hosted Applic’ns
Special Hosted Applic’ns
EC-Strategic Applic’ns
Virtual Enterprise Applic’ns
“BP” Hosted Apps
Educ/Literacy Systems
Health/Social Svcs
Justice/Law Enforcement
Gov’t Svcs(Voting, DMV,
EBT, Public Records,
Stock Market, etc.)
Trade/Contract Mgmt
International “BP” Applic.
Trade/Trace of Goods
Int’l Justice/Law Enf.
Int’l Health/Social Svcs
Int’l Gov’t Applications
Backup/Recovery
File Transfer
Internal E-Mail
Van EDI
Web EDI
Web/HTML Capability
Archiving/Rollback Svcs
Universal Data Convers.
Universal Messaging
Community Databases
Community Workgroups
Standards Management
Reg. Business Rule Mgmt
Domestic Purchase/Sale
Import/Export Mgmt
Global Bus. Rule Mgmt
Trading Bloc Mgmt
Language Conversion
Finance
Layer
Usage Billing/Reporting
Transaction Reporting
Internal Reporting Links
EC- Specific Accounting
Government Reporting
Regional Taxation
Regional Banking/Finance
Customer/Broker Interface
Cross-Border Payments
Int’l Taxation
Int’l Banking/Finance
Customs/Excise rep’ting
Currency Conversion
Control
Layer
Internal EC Audit Trails
Internal System Controls
Encryption Technologies
Key Mgmt/Certification
Internet/Intranet Security
System Mgmt Svcs for
EC
Managed/Custom Billing
Online Pmt/EFT Support
Bank Account Mgmt
Svcs
(Personal and Comm’ty)
Statistical Reporting
Extranet Security
Authentication/Validation
Two-Way Audit Trails
Community Syst. Controls
Community Admin/Mgmt
Data Warehousing
Data Mining
TP Business Rule Mgmt
Shared Data Bases
Intelligent Search
Message Management
Message Reconciliation
Custom Reporting
Local Taxation
Strategic Banking Svcs
EC Trend Analysis
Custom Audit Trails
Custom System Controls
End-to-end Traceability
Trusted Third Party Svcs
EC Center Admin/Mgmt
Best Practice Audit/Controls
Legis./Reg.Compliance
Regional Monitoring/Rep’tg
Regional Admin/Mgmt
Svcs
Global “Best Practice”
Audits and Controls
Global Legislative/
Regulatory Compliance
Global Monitoring syst.
Network Admin/Mgmt
Public/Private Networks
Subscription Svcs
Registration/Recruitment
Public DB Connectivity
Private DB Connectivity
In-Country Connectivity
Regional Gov’t Systems
Public Service Agencies
Cross-Industry Linkages
Customized BC Channels
Global Connectivity
Multi-national Gov’ts
Customs/Excise
Immigration
Quasi-gov’t Agencies
Business
Applications
Data/Message
Management
Infrastructure
Layer
Lan/Wan
Internet/Intranet
External Networks
Legacy Systems
Technology Support
Community Directories
Registration Services
Extranet Linkages
Interactive Catalogues
Universal E-Mail
Gateway Services
Is it a better world?
THANK YOU!