Transcript Slide 1
A Nation of Takers Nicholas Eberstadt Henry Wendt Chair In Political Economy American Enterprise Institute [email protected] June 20, 2012 The Rise And Rise Of Entitlements Total Government Transfers to Individuals, 1960-2010 (in current dollars) 2.5 Trillions of current dollars 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Transfers- US Bureau of Economic Analysis, http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/drill.cfm?selTable=SA35&selLineCode=20&selYears=2010,2009,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2001,2000,1999,1998,1997, 1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1991,1990,1989,1988,1987,1986,1985,1984,1983,1982,1981,1980&rformat=Display. Accessed February 1, 2012 Still Exponential After All These Years Total Government Transfers to Individuals, 1960-2010, (Adjusted for Inflation) 2.5 Trillions of 2010 US dollars 2 1.5 1 0.5 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Transfers- US Bureau of Economic Analysis, http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/drill.cfm?selTable=SA35&selLineCode=20&selYears=2010,2009,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2001,2000,1999,1998,1997, 1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1991,1990,1989,1988,1987,1986,1985,1984,1983,1982,1981,1980&rformat=Display. Accessed February 1, 2012 Two And A Half Times Faster Than Per Capita Income Real Per Capita Government Transfers to Individuals , 1980-2010 (Constant 2010 Dollars) 8000 7000 6000 2010 Dollars 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Source: Transfers- US Bureau of Economic Analysis, http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/drill.cfm?selTable=SA35&selLineCode=20&selYears=2010,2009,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2001,2000,1999,1998,1997,1996,1 995,1994,1993,1992,1991,1990,1989,1988,1987,1986,1985,1984,1983,1982,1981,1980&rformat=Display. Accessed February 1, 2012 CPI- US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, consumer price index. Available at ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt. Accessed February 1, 2012. Population- US Census International Data Base, http://www.census.gov/population/international/data/idb/informationGateway.php, Accessed February 1, 2012. Composition of Total Government Transfer Payments, 1960-2010 (current dollars) 2500 Billions of Dollars, unadjusted 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1960 1965 1970 Income maintenance benefits 1975 Medicare 1980 Medicaid 1985 Social Security 1990 1995 2000 2005 Unemployment insurance compensation 2010 Other Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, available at http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/drill.cfm?selTable=SA35&selLineCode=20&selYears=2010,2009,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2001,2000,1999,1998,199 7,1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1991,1990,1989,1988,1987,1986,1985,1984,1983,1982,1981,1980&rformat=Display Government Transfer Payments, 1960-2010 (adjusted by CPI) 2500 Billions of 2010 US Dollars 2000 1500 1000 500 0 1960 1965 1970 Income maintenance benefits 1975 Medicare 1980 Medicaid 1985 Social Security 1990 1995 2000 2005 Unemployment insurance compensation 2010 Other Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, available at http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/drill.cfm?selTable=SA35&selLineCode=20&selYears=2010,2009,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2001,2000,1999,1998,199 7,1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1991,1990,1989,1988,1987,1986,1985,1984,1983,1982,1981,1980&rformat=Display 1969 Source: The New York Times, February 11, 2012, The Geography of Government Benefits, http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/02/12/us/entitlement-map.html?ref=us 2009 Source: The New York Times, February 11, 2012, The Geography of Government Benefits, http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/02/12/us/entitlement-map.html?ref=us Source: Sara Murray. “Nearly Half of U.S. Lives in Household Receiving Government Benefit,” Wall Street Journal, 5 October, 2011. Source: Ke Bin Wu. “Receipt of Entitlement and Other Safety-net Program Benefits Among Families in 2011,” AARP Public Policy Institute, April 2007. Percentage of U.S. Households Receiving Means TestedPublic Public Benefits , 1979-2009 Percent of Households Households Receiving Benefits vs. Unemployment Rate 33 31 29 25 23 21 19 17 15 13 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 Source: Family Poverty Rate: US Census Bureau Historical Poverty Tables- Families, http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/historical/families.html, Accessed January 17, 2012. Household percents: US Census Bureau Statistical Abstract, 1980-2012, http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/, Accessed January 27, 2012, and Sara Murray, “Nearly Half of U.S. Lives in Household Receiving Government Benefit,” Wall Street Journal, 5 October 2011, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/10/05/nearly-half-of-households-receive-some-government-benefit/ Unemployment: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/, Accessed January 30, 2012 Percent of Households 27 Persons Living in Households Receiving Selected Noncash Benefits: 2009, by age and ethnicity 60 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 0 0 Under 18 to 24 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 59 60 to 64 65 years 18 years years years years years years years and over Hispanic Black alone Asian alone Source: 2012 Statistical Abstract, Table 543, http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/cats/social_insurance_human_services.html Accessed February 1, 2012. White Alone, Non-Hispanic Disconnect: Households receiving means tested public benefits (%) vs. Unemployment Rate, 1979-2009 20 33 Households Receiving Public Benefits vs. Unemployment Rate 31 18 29 16 14 25 12 23 21 10 19 8 17 6 15 4 13 1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009 Source: Family Poverty Rate: US Census Bureau Historical Poverty Tables- Families, http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/historical/families.html, Accessed January 17, 2012. Household percents: US Census Bureau Statistical Abstract, 1980-2012, http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/, Accessed January 27, 2012, and Sara Murray, “Nearly Half of U.S. Lives in Household Receiving Government Benefit,” Wall Street Journal, 5 October 2011, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/10/05/nearly-half-of-households-receive-some-government-benefit/ Unemployment: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://www.bls.gov/, Accessed January 30, 2012 Percent of Households Unemployment Rate 27 18.0 17.0 Disconnect, Part II Percent of household receiving selected public benefits vs. Family Poverty Rate Percent of Households Receiving Means-Tested Noncash Benefits 30 16.0 Percent of Households Receiving Selected Sources of Noncash Benefits and Cash Transfer Payments 15.0 Percent of Persons Living in Households Receiving Selected Noncash Benefits Family Poverty Rate 25 14.0 13.0 20 12.0 11.0 10.0 15 9.0 8.0 10 Source: Family Poverty Rate: US Census Bureau Historical Poverty Tables- Families, http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/poverty/data/historical/families.html, Accessed January 17, 2012. Household percents: US Census Bureau Statistical Abstract, 1980-2012, http://www.census.gov/compendia/statab/, Accessed January 27, 2012, and Sara Murray, “Nearly Half of U.S. Lives in Household Receiving Government Benefit,” Wall Street Journal, 5 October 2011, http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/10/05/nearly-half-of-households-receive-some-government-benefit/ US Labor Force Participation Rate 1948-2011, by Gender 100.0 90.0 80.0 70.0 60.0 Male 20+ 50.0 Female 20+ Total 20+ 40.0 30.0 20.0 10.0 Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet, accessed June 15, 2012. 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 1974 1972 1970 1968 1966 1964 1962 1960 1958 1956 1954 1952 1950 1948 0.0 95.0 90.0 Where Did All The Men Go? Labor Force Participation Rate vs. Employment to Population Ratio, Males 20+,1948-2011 85.0 1948-2008: 12.9 percentage point drop 80.0 Gap in 2010: 6.5 percentage points 75.0 70.0 Unemployment 65.0 60.0 Employment to Population Ratio Labor Force Participation Rate Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet, accessed February 27, 2012. Those Hard-Working Greeks… Labor Force Participation Rate for Males 35-39: USA vs. Greece, 1976-2011 99 98 97 Greece 96 95 USA 94 93 92 91 90 89 Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet, accessed February 27, 2012. International Labor Office: http://laborsta.ilo.org/STP/guest , Accessed on February 27, 2012 Education and Language Can’t Explain This Male Labor Force Participation Rates by Ethnicity: 1973-2011 85.0 80.0 47.1% of Spanish speakers in USA over 5 years of age 2006-08 speak English “Less Than Very Well” 75.0 Percent of men 25 and older without a high school degree in 2011: African American: 16.2 Hispanic: 36.4 70.0 65.0 African American Hispanic Source: The Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/pdq/querytool.jsp?survey=ln, Accessed on February 27, 2012 . Hispanic Language: http://www.census.gov/hhes/socdemo/language/ Education: http://www.census.gov/hhes/socdemo/education/data/cps/2011/tables.html 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 60.0 Who Pays? 2000 Cost of Medicare and Social Security vs. US Deficit Billions of 2010 US Dollars 1500 1000 500 0 1970 -500 1975 1980 1985 Deficit 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Medicaid and Social Security Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, available at http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/drill.cfm?selTable=SA35&selLineCode=20&selYears=2010,2009,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2001,2000,1999,1998,199 7,1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1991,1990,1989,1988,1987,1986,1985,1984,1983,1982,1981,1980&rformat=Display White House Office of Management and Budget, available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals, Table 15.6. What Is Wrong With This Picture? 0.3 6 0.25 5 0.2 4 0.15 3 0.1 2 0.05 1 0 0 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 Source: The Human Mortality Database, http://www.mortality.org/cgi-bin/hmd/country.php?cntr=USA&level=1 , Accessed on February 27, 2012 . Social Security Administration, Office of Retirement and Disability Policy, Annual Statistical Report on the Social Security Disability Insurance Program, 2010, http://www.socialsecurity.gov/policy/docs/statcomps/di_asr/2010/ accessed February 27, 2012 . The Bureau of Labor Statistics, http://data.bls.gov/pdq/SurveyOutputServlet, accessed February 27, 2012. Disability to total people 18-64 in labor force (percent) Odds of dying in working ages Odds of Dying Between Ages 18 and 65 vs. Percentage of Labor Force Ages 18-64 On Federal Disability Benefits: USA, 1960-2010 Unaffordable? 9.0% Defense Spending As a percent of GDP, 1970-2010 8.0% 7.0% 6.0% 5.0% 4.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% Defense Spending As a percent of GDP Source: White House Office of Management and Budget, Historical Tables, Table 3.2- Outlays by Function and Subfunction. Available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals. Accessed 18 April 2012. 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 1995 1994 1993 1992 1991 1990 1989 1988 1987 1986 1985 1984 1983 1982 1981 1980 1979 1978 1977 1976 1975 1974 1973 1972 1971 1970 0.0% Crowded Out 2500.00 Military Spending vs. Government Transfers to Individuals: 1970-2010, Billions of Current Dollars 2000.00 1500.00 1000.00 500.00 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 0.00 Total Government Transfers Defense Spending Source: Transfers- US Bureau of Economic Analysis, http://www.bea.gov/regional/spi/drill.cfm?selTable=SA35&selLineCode=20&selYears=2010,2009,2008,2007,2006,2005,2004,2003,2002,2001,2000,1999,1998,1997, 1996,1995,1994,1993,1992,1991,1990,1989,1988,1987,1986,1985,1984,1983,1982,1981,1980&rformat=Display. Accessed February 1, 2012 Military Spending- White House Office of Management and Budget, Historical Tables, Table 3.2- Outlays by Function and Subfunction. Available at http://www.whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals. Accessed 18 April 2012. Note: Chart reflects 2004 numbers. Source: Robert Rector and Christine Kim. 2008. “How the Wealth is Spread: The Distribution of Government Benefits, Services and Taxes by Income Quintile in the United States,” Fall 2008 Conference of The Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management. Benefits and Services Received per One Dollar in Taxes Paid Note: Chart reflects 2004 numbers. Source: Robert Rector and Christine Kim. 2008. “How the Wealth is Spread: The Distribution of Government Benefits, Services and Taxes by Income Quintile in the United States,” Fall 2008 Conference of The Association for Public Policy Analysis and Management.