Transcript Regional Cooperation among GCC countries

Al-Khawarezmi Committee First Conference
The Role of the IMF Technical Assistance in
Promoting Statistical Development in the GCC
Mohammed El Qorchi, IMF
Doha, Qatar
December 6–8, 2010
Regional Cooperation among GCC countries
Regional cooperation and in particular, economic
integration among the GCC countries is an important factor
in economic policies.
• A common external customs tariff has already been
introduced in 2003, and the GCC authorities have decided to
establish a monetary union.
• Important progress was made in March 2010 when four GCC
countries signed the GCC Monetary Agreement and launched
the Monetary Council.
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Changes in Statistical Systems in
the View of the Monetary Union
• In view of GCC countries intention to establish a
monetary union, the effectiveness of their statistical
systems must be upgraded to meet the demands of the
monetary union.
• Effective operation of a monetary union requires that
policy makers have current and reliable information. A
coordinated approach to developing statistical systems is
essential.
• A coordinated approach applied for TA delivery to
develop statistical systems seems most efficient.
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Main Tasks for Regional
or Union Statistics
• Apply common standards in all countries
• Create a regional harmonized statistical system,
including monetary statistics system
• Compile aggregates for the region and quickly
transfer data to regional members or other
countries
• Create links to a macroeconomic statistical
system to evaluate policy effectiveness
• Provide a unified message
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The Role of Statistics
in a Monetary Union
• A Regional Organization needs comparable,
current information on monetary, financial, and other
conditions in each country and for the region.
• A Monetary Union requires that policy-makers have
reliable, current information about the common
policy and policy instruments used to operate the
Union.
• Statistics provide information for analysis of regional
conditions, or the successful operation of the union.
• Statistics are the public face of the Region or Union.
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Principles for compiling
Monetary Union Statistics
•
The statistics of the member countries are added (aggregated) and
consolidated to provide a unified picture of economic activity.
•
Research or policy is carried out regionwide.
• Some statistics are constructed as if the region or union were a single
country (total money stock, total external debt, etc.)
• Individual country data must be additive to the Regional or Union total.
• Harmonized national statistics are needed to be able to aggregate.
• Consolidation requires information on transactions and positions
between members of the Union.
•
Analysis of contagion or financial stress also requires information
on transactions and positions between members countries.
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Recent Developments in Statistical
Systems of GCC Countries
• Significant improvements in legal frameworks and institutional
setup have taken place in the past several years.
• However, these improvements have yet to become fully
operational.
• Considerable efforts need to consistently focus on ensuring
that the upgraded legal frameworks and the new institutional
setups are operational in order to support clear coordinating
mandates and to strengthen interagency coordination.
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Recent Developments in Statistical
Systems of GCC Countries (concluded)
• Some progress has been made in recent years in
improving the coverage, periodicity, and other
aspects of quality of economic and financial
statistics in the GCC.
• Nevertheless, major weaknesses still exist primarily
in the areas of GFS and external sector statistics in
terms of scope, coverage, methodologies used, and
dissemination.
• Weaknesses also exist in NAs, prices, and MFS.
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Statistical Development
Projects
• To address the weaknesses mentioned in the previous slides,
technical cooperation between the GCC countries and STA
may take the form of statistical development projects in all
areas of macroeconomic statistics.
• STA could provide TA and advice on the harmonization of
these sets of statistics in GCC countries as well as
compilation of union-wide statistical data. These topical
projects would include seminars for high level policymakers,
workshops and other training sessions for technical staff, IMF
staff visits to individual GCC countries, etc.
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Statistical Development
Projects (concluded)
• STA already prepared a draft project proposal (module) on
developing GCC monetary statistics. Monetary statistics are
the core statistics for the operation of a monetary union.
• The draft project proposal described the goal, expected
results, and other main aspects of the project, as well as
provides estimates of the project’s budget.
• The draft project was proposed for discussion with the GCC
authorities. Based on this example, similar project proposals
could be developed for other statistical datasets.
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SDDS as a Benchmark for Statistical
Development in GCC
• The IMF’s SDDS could be a useful general benchmark for statistical
development in the GCC region supporting also the goal of
harmonizing statistical datasets.
• For most major data categories of GCC countries, the SDDS
coverage, periodicity, and timeliness requirements along with the
respective latest international statistical methodology would be
developmental benchmarks going forward.
• This should not apply to specific cases where major shortcomings
exist. In these cases, the GDDS requirements could be targeted first
and only when the GDDS recommendations are fully met, the SDDS
requirements would be put forward as a next stage.
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Key Features of the SDDS (1)
Four dimensions of data dissemination:
(1) Data coverage, periodicity, and
timeliness
(2) The public’s access to the data
(3) The integrity of the disseminated data
(4) The quality of the disseminated data.
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Key Features of the SDDS (2)
•
The SDDS prescribes that 22 categories of data be disseminated, each at a
specific frequency and with a prescribed timeliness.
•
These data cover the real, the fiscal, the financial, and the external sectors.
•
The SDDS requires subscribers to disseminate the data on a timely and
regular basis, as set forth in the Standard, on the subscribing country’s
national website designated as the “National Summary Data Page.”
•
The SDDS also calls for subscribers to provide advance release calendars
and metadata for various data categories for posting on the IMF’s DSBB.
•
To provide users ready access to the subscriber’s data, the NSDP is to be
hyperlinked to the DSBB.
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Differences Between the SDDS
and the GDDS (1)
• The SDDS is a monitored standard. The GDDS is a
framework to guide development.
• The SDDS prescribes specific practices that must be
observed by subscriber; the GDDS provides guidelines on
good practices and is less demanding than the SDDS.
• SDDS subscribers must meet the requirements at the time
of subscription; GDDS does not fix dates for participants to
improve existing practices; GDDS participants set their own
priorities and timing for developing their statistical systems.
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Differences Between the SDDS
and the GDDS (2)
• The focus of the SDDS is on data dissemination in countries
that already meet high data quality standards, whereas the
primary goal of the GDDS is to assist countries in developing
their statistical systems through setting up plans for
improvement and identifying technical assistance needs.
• SDDS covers macroeconomic and financial data and one
socio-demographic data category (population); GDDS covers
several socio-demographic data categories (population,
health, education, and poverty), in addition to the
macroeconomic and financial data covered under the SDDS,
to support statistical needs of developing countries.
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A Possible Regional Statistical Platform
• Following the global credit crisis and the Dubai World debt
problems, the region perhaps more receptive to a regional
initiative to draw out the lessons learned and to strengthen
their capacity to produce data relevant for the analysis of
debt-related vulnerabilities and macroeconomic frameworks.
• A regional consolidated statistical body could offer a regional
statistical platform: an agency to coordinate activities among
national statistical agencies, support integration of member
countries, and increase the stake in regional initiatives.
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A Possible Regional Statistical Platform
(continued)
• In setting up the regional statistical platform, what is
the appropriate approach and pace? What form? An
independent institution or a network of institutions? A
small or large agency? Evolving or final form?
• In a regional initiative, countries seek appropriate
mutual cooperation, engage in capacity building, and
develop and promote national/regional statistical
methodologies.
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A Possible Regional Statistical Platform
(continued)
• The statistical platform could begin as a smaller body which
evolves into a bigger body. Initially, the body could be a
forum/secretariats rather than an independent agency to
avoid legal issues related to institutionalizing and to speed up
implementation.
• The statistical platform could start with the GCC countries,
since they are more familiar with multilateral surveillance and
the need for data dissemination in preparation for the
monetary union. The group could be expanded to other
countries in the region in the medium to longer run.
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