Transcript Document
CIBC Whistler Institutional Investor Conference Robert McFarlane EVP & Chief Financial Officer February 27, 2003 Forward-Looking Legal Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements about expected future events and financial and operating results that are subject to risks and uncertainties. TELUS’ actual results, performance, or achievement could differ materially from those expressed or implied by such statements. For additional information on potential risk factors, see TELUS’ Annual Information Form, and other filings with securities commissions in Canada and the United States. TELUS disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. All dollars in C$ unless otherwise specified. Slide 2 Agenda About TELUS Q4 & 2002 review 2002 Performance vs. Targets 2003 Outlook Slide 3 About TELUS Canada’s only national pure-play, facilities-based, fullservice telecom provider 2nd largest Canadian telco Executing national growth strategy focused on data, IP & wireless from position of financial strength 2002: Revenues C$7.0B EBITDA C$2.52B Operating segments: Enterprise value: Daily trading1: Slide 4 1 recent 3 month average Communications: wireline Mobility: wireless ~C$14B (equity ~ $6B) 1.1M shares About TELUS Communications ILEC: full service in W. Canada and E. Quebec Non-ILEC: data & IP for business in C. Canada Revenue (2002) $5.0B EBITDA (2002) $2.0B POPs covered 7.5M Network Access Lines 4.9M Local/LD Market Share 97%/78% Total Internet Subscribers 802K (410K High-speed ADSL) Fibre IP backbone national Strategic alliance Verizon Communications Slide 5 About TELUS Mobility Leading national wireless provider Subscribers 3M Revenue $2.0B EBITDA $535M CDMA footprint coast to coast 1X iDEN Mike network only one in Canada Spectrum position best in Canada Licensed POPs Cdn. Population (31.4M) Network coverage 27.4M (~90%) + roaming Strategic relationships Verizon Wireless & Nextel Slide 6 Q4 & 2002 review 2002 Highlights – Consolidated Difficult telecom environment & price cap impact Met or exceeded key financial targets “on Street” EBITDA before restructuring costs was flat YoY as Mobility, OEP1 & ITCs2 offset regulatory impacts Capex reduction drove significant improvement in cash flow 1 2 Slide 8 Operational Efficiency Program Investment Tax Credits Q4 Review - Consolidated Q4-01 Q4-02 Change Revenue $1.87B $1.79B 3.9% Revenue (normalized)1 $1.87B $1.90B 2.1% EBITDA2 $598M $645M 7.8% EBITDA (normalized)1,2 $598M $720M 20% Negative impact of regulatory decisions masks underlying growth in Revenue & EBITDA of 2% & 20% 1 2 2002 normalized for regulatory impacts (contribution and price cap decisions) Excludes restructuring & workforce reduction costs Slide 9 Q4 Review - Consolidated Normalized EBITDA Trend1 ($M) 2001 618 650 Q1 1 2002 690 699 614 Q2 727 720 598 Q3 Q4 2002 has been normalized for regulatory impacts (contribution and price cap decisions) Slide 10 20% Q4 Review - Consolidated Q4-01 1 Q4-02 Change - $241M - Disc. Operations2 ($3.1M) - - Net Income/(Loss) ($47M) ($139M) 198% EPS (per GAAP) ($0.16) ($0.41) 156% EPS 3 ($0.16) $0.05 131% Restructuring costs EPS from continuing operations exhibiting significant upward growth 1 Restructuring & workforce reduction costs Gain on sale of Directory Operations 3 Normalized for after-tax restructuring costs 2 Slide 11 Q4 Review - Consolidated Q4-01 Q4-02 Change Capex $592M $416M 30% Capex Intensity1 31.7% 23.2% 8.5pts EBITDA-capex $6.7M $229M 3,318% Significant reduction in capex drove strong improvement in capital intensity & dramatic cash generation increase 1 Ratio of capex to total revenues Slide 12 Q4 Review - Consolidated Capex Intensity1 Significant downward trend in capex intensity ratio 37% 32% 24% 23% 2001 1 2002 Q4 Ratio of capex to total revenues Slide 13 2001 YTD 2002 Consolidated Free Cash Flow ($M) 2001 2002 (26) Dramatic increase in YoY Free Cash Flow1 in 2002 (1,354) 1 EBITDA less capex, cash interest, cash taxes, and cash dividends Slide 14 Deleveraging Q1-02 Net Debt : Capital Net Debt : EBITDA Q2-02 Q3-02 Q4-02 Target 57.9% 58.7% 55.8% 56.6% 50% long-term 3.5x 3.6x 3.4x 3.3x 3.0x in Dec ’03 New December 2004 debt: EBITDA target < 2.7x Expect significant leverage drop in 2003/2004 due to increased EBITDA and FCF Slide 15 TELUS Public Debt Performance Relative Price Performance TELUS Corporation C$ 7.5% 2006 v GOC 8.75% 2005 (Assuming $100 invested on May 24, 2001) $110 GOC (Feb 24/03): $112.79 $100 $90 May 31 - Jul 11 Credit rating under review: DBRS (May 31) Moody's (Jun 14) S&P (Jul 11) $80 $70 TELUS (Feb 24/03): $100.13 Aug 5 Commenced buying back TELUS debt $60 Sep 19 Completed equityfunded debt buyback TELUS C$ 7.5% 2006 GOC 8.75% 2005 23-Feb-03 22-Jan-03 21-Dec-02 19-Nov-02 18-Oct-02 16-Sep-02 15-Aug-02 14-Jul-02 12-Jun-02 11-May-02 9-Apr-02 8-Mar-02 4-Feb-02 3-Jan-02 2-Dec-01 31-Oct-01 29-Sep-01 28-Aug-01 27-Jul-01 Slide 16 25-Jun-01 24-May-01 $50 Communications Segment Slide 17 2002 Highlights Communications Segment Significant negative regulatory impacts Revenue shortfall offset by OEP progress ahead of plan & favourable ITC1 settlement Data growth - 16% reported, 9.7% organic Gained considerable market share in ADSL Disciplined 23% annual reduction in capex Significantly improved cash flow 1 Investment Tax Credits Slide 18 Q4 Review – Communications Change Q4-01 Q4-02 Change 1,392 543 1,244 517 11% 4.9% Capex Cap. Intensity2 387 27.3% 291 23.0% 25% 4.3pts - EBITDA-capex 156 226 44% - ($M) Revenue 1 EBITDA (ex. neg. reg. impacts) 2.6% 11% Underlying EBITDA growth & cash generation improved 11% and 44%, respectively from efficiency improvements 1 2 Excludes intersegment revenues Ratio of capex to total revenues Slide 19 Q4 Review – Communications Network Access Lines (NALs) NAL Decrease (Q4-02 vs. Q4-01) TELUS (1.1%) BCE & MTS (1.1%) U.S. Composite 1 Canadian NAL losses below U.S. peer averages 1 2 Weighted average calculation Comprised of: Bell South, SBC Communications, and Verizon; weighted average calculation Slide 20 (3.8%) 2 Q4 Review – Communications 43K ADSL net adds in Q4 to total 195K for the year; 91% YoY growth in subscriber base 195 431 in Q4 131 58 in Q4 58 20 in Q4 2000 2001 2002 Velocity ADSL Internet Net Adds (000's) 1 Slide 21 Q4 net adds were net of an approximate 3,400 subscriber count adjustment Central Canada 2002 Performance Central Canada Wireline (ILEC & Non-ILEC) 840 632 Significant scale & increasing profitability 57 (9) 2001 2002 Revenue Slide 22 ($M) 2001 2002 EBITDA ($M) Q4 Review – Communications Non-ILEC1,2 Revenue ($M) 2002 YoY improvement of $192M in revenue & $38M in EBITDA EBITDA 152 136 133 117 105 123 60 17 16 Q1-00 Q2-00 (11) 1 2 (24) 20 Q3-00 (28) 31 Q4-00 (33) 38 Q1-01 (35) Q2-01 Q3-01 (36) (38) Q4-01 (37) Q1-02 (36) Q2-02 Q3-02 (30) Minor adjustments were made in Q3-02 to reflect current customer account classification Note: 2002 YTD Non-ILEC revenues: $527.3M and 2002 YTD EBITDA: $(107.2)M Slide 23 (23) Q4-02 (18) TELUS Québec Feb. 25 Announcement TELUS Québec & Government of Québec announced $500M investment & job creation program On strategy and in current capex program In recognition of investment, Quebec to provide employment subsidies Half of new jobs to be created in large urban areas Expected benefits - $90M under 3 govt. programs Raises TELUS’ profile with Government of Québec Slide 24 Q4 Review – Communications OEP – Employee Reductions 2001 Phase I (Jun / Q4-01) Phase II (Q1/Q2-02) 2002 8001 1,000 Phase III: (Q3-02) 1,700 (Q4-02) 2,500 (Q1/Q4-03) TOTAL 2003 ~ 6,500 1,300 800 5,200 1,300 2002 reductions ahead of plan 1 Excludes the impacts of staff increases associated with acquisitions during H2-2001 Slide 25 Q4 Review – Communications OEP – Savings & Expenses Estimated Phase I to III OEP EBITDA savings: 2002 $150M 2003 ~ $450M 2004+ ~ $550M Phase I costs: $211M ($198M in 2001, $13M in 2002) Estimated Phase II & III restructuring & workforce reduction expense: Per Acctg. Per Cash Slide 26 2002 $557M $172M 2003 ~ $20M $285M Improving Efficiency Consolidated Revenue & EBITDA per Employee1 (thousands) $272 $197 $98 $76 2000 2002 Revenue per employee 1 Based Slide 27 on total employees at year-end 2000 2002 EBITDA per employee Mobility Segment Slide 28 2002 Highlights Mobility Segment Successful completion of integration (incl. billing conversions) 2002 net adds flat YoY despite significant industry slowdown Financial and operating results ahead of plan and street expectations Slide 29 Q4 Review – Mobility ($M) Network Revenue EBITDA Capex Capex Intensity1 (%) EBITDA-capex Q4-01 Q4-02 Change 424 55 491 129 16% 133% 205 42.6 (150) 125 22.6 3.4 39% 20pts 102% Flat expenses, strong network revenue growth & reduced capex drove cash flow improvement 1 Ratio of capex to total revenues Slide 30 Q4 Review – Mobility Subscribers ARPU Churn Q4-01 Q4-02 Change 2.6M $56 3.0M $56 - 16% - 2.09% 1.68% 41pts ~20% ARPU premium to competitors maintained Material improvement in churn rate Slide 31 Increased Share of Net Additions 2002 net additions of 418K flat with 2001 - represents increased share of industry net additions 2001 2002E TELUS Mobility 22% TELUS Mobility 33% 1.9M Total Canadian wireless industry estimates. Source: Company & analyst reports Slide 32 ~1.25M Share of Service Revenues Strong service revenue market share despite lower number of subscribers Market Share Market Share of of Subscribers Service Revenues TELUS Mobility 25% TELUS Mobility 29% 12.0M Total Canadian wireless industry estimates. Source: Company & analyst reports Slide 33 ~$6.4B 2002 Review – Mobility How far we have come in 2 years Proforma 2000 2002 Change Digital POPs (M) 22.6 27.4 4.8 2,160 2,996 836 39% ARPU ($) 59 55 (4) (6.8)% Churn (%) 1.98 1.80 18pts 9.1% 2,980 3,056 2.5% Subscribers (000s) Lifetime revenue ($) 76 % Change 21% Subscriber base up 39% Industry-leading value per subscriber has increased Slide 34 2002 Review – Mobility How far we have come in 2 years Proforma ($M) 2000 2002 Network Rev. 1,396 1,853 Change % Change 457 33% EBITDA 173 535 362 209% Capex 534 460 74 14% Cap. Intensity1 33% 23% 10pts - EBITDA-capex (360) 75 435 - Tripling of EBITDA and capex reduction drove a $435M improvement in annual cash flow 1 Ratio of capex to total revenues Slide 35 2002 Performance vs. Targets 2002 Consolidated Financial Targets Original Public Targets vs. Actuals 2002 Actual Original Target Target Met? Revenue ($B) 7.01 7.35 to 7.45 EBITDA ($B) 2.52 2.475 to 2.525 EPS before restr. costs ($) 0.43 0.15 to 0.20 Capex ($B) 1.70 2.10 to 2.20 Achieved profitability and cash flow targets despite revenue shortfall Slide 37 2003 Outlook 2003 Priorities Driving wireline operational efficiency Delivering significant wireless cash flow growth Strengthening financial position Improving Central Canada profitability Reaching collective agreement Slide 39 2003 Consolidated Targets 2003 Targets Change Revenue $7.2 to 7.3B 3 to 4% EBITDA $2.7 to 2.8B 7 to 11% EPS $0.35 to 0.55 $1.10 to 1.30 Capex approx. $1.5B 12% Expect significant profitability & cash flow growth Slide 40 2003 Outlook Leading North American Telecom Performance Projected EBITDA Growth Rates – 2003E 9.2% 5.5% 4.8% 2.1% TELUS BCE MTS Aliant 0.5% Sprint (2.6%) Verizon (6.6%) BellSouth EBITDA target growth — top echelon for N.A. telecoms (11.0%) SBC (19.1%) AT&T Note: TELUS data based on 2002 actual results & average of 2003 targets Other 2003 estimates provided by TD Securities, based on analysts estimates Slide 41 2003 Outlook Leading North American Telecom Performance Projected EBITDA-Capex Growth Rates – 2003E 52% Cash Flow (EBITDA – Capex) up $400 to $500M 19% TELUS BCE 11% 10% MTS Aliant (0.4)% (4.0%) BellSouth (5.0%) Sprint SBC (8.0%) Verizon (21.0%) AT&T Note: TELUS data based on 2002 actual results & average of 2003 targets Other 2003 estimates provided by TD Securities, based on analysts estimates Slide 42 Summary TELUS Mobility – outstanding results TELUS Communications – better than expected progress on OEP Capex intensity significantly reducing as planned FCF positive in H2-02 & 2003 Expect significant leverage drop in 2003/4 2003 EPS up by $1.10 to $1.30, to 35 to 55 cents Executing to plan Slide 43 Questions? Answers! Slide 44 Appendix 2002 Consolidated Free Cash Flow ($M) 2002 EBITDA1 2,518 Capex (1,698) Interest (676) Cash Taxes (35) Cash Dividends (136) Free Cash Flow1 (26) Working Capital/Other2 545 Equity Issuance 430 Cash Restructuring Costs (2001) (102) (2002) (172) Funds available to repay debt 1 Slide 45 2 Before restructuring and workforce reduction costs Including sale of accounts receivable $675 Appendix Consolidated Free Cash Flow H2-2002 H2-2002 H2-2002 Q2-02 Guidance Actual Guidance Met? $1,265 to 1,315 $1,308 Capex ~(845) (743) Interest (350) to (375) (332) Cash Taxes (30) (16) Cash Dividends (80) (83) ~ ($65) to $10 $135 ($M) EBITDA1 Free Cash Flow1 1 Before restructuring & workforce reduction costs Slide 46 Investor Relations 1-800-667-4871 www.telus.com [email protected]