Transcript Slide 1

The Pace of Thailand
through the Year 2020
A presentation by
Chakramon Phasukavanich
20 May 2003
NESDB National Economic and Social Development Board
..Mirror our direction with complexity
of the world...
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Complexity of the World
 Global Economic Development
 Navigating whitewater
Thailand’s Vision 2020
 Where are we now?
 Thailand’s dreams
 Competitiveness agenda
 Development platform
Stages of Economic Development
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Growth
Competitive
Advantage
Comparative
Advantage
- Innovation
- Productivity
- Resources
- Low-cost
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Sources of Prosperity…
Wealth of
Nation
Productivity
“Competitiveness”
Innovative
Capacity

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Productivity depends on
the value and efficiency
of products and
services.
 Not what industries we
compete, but how we
compete.
 Devaluation and lower
costs reveals a lack of
fundamental
competitiveness
Competitiveness = ???
“Is NOT”
• Is NOT about
competition policy
• Is NOT about
restructuring
• Is NOT about
“choosing” industries
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“Is”
•
•
•
•
IS about Productivity
IS about Positioning
IS about Clustering
IS about Building
platforms for multiple
industries
• IS about Strategy
National Agenda
Global
Competitiveness
“Tools for raising
standard of living
in Thailand”
Sustainable
Development
Local
Grass root
Economy
Economic
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Social Capital
Social
“Global Trends”
-Asia, high potential
growth
-Venture capital rising
-New business model
Economics Cultures &
in IT Era
-Broader conflict,
& Finance Societies
fragmented
-Sole superpower
Geopolitics &
Governance
Technology
-Next wave in
Energy
-ICT revolution
-Nano revolution in
3 science fields
-Science = Business
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-Global Lifestyle
-Changing status of
women
-Power of media
-More complex
society
-Different syncretistic
spirituality
-The meta-values
supportive of change
Values &
Beliefs
Civilization &
Infrastructure
Science Environment
-Business leads
-Systematic thinking
-Inadequate Infra.
-Climate change
-Better energy
policies
Source: What’s Next in Business Terrain
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“Past global shifts”
1000 : 1
Information Age
2000
Genetic code
390 : 1
5:1
Digital Language
Industrial Age
- Resource-based
production
Agriculture Age
Written Language
Drawing Language
Oral Language
30,000 B.C.
1960
1840
1900
- Wave Tech
- Mendel experiment
- Physics revolution
- Higher productivity
- Petrochemical
-Globalization
-Productivity
-New business
model
-Knowledge
economy
“Things in what direction we are
moving”
3rd Shift
2020
Global
Lifestyle
Physic
2012
-Cosmological
constant
New Productivity
by Knowledge
2010
IT/ Knowledge divide
2008
Scientific
Revolution
Climate change
2006 Chemistry
Biology
2004
Global Labor
for Services
Geo-Politico-Economic reshape
2002
2000
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Economic paradigm shifts
Yesterday
Today & Tomorrow
Resource-based
Growth
Innovation-driven
Growth
Scarcity of resources
& diminishing returns
Abundant of
knowledge and
increasing returns
Perfecting the known
in stable environment
Imperfectly seizing
the unknown in the
era of discontinuous
change
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“Global Scenario to 2020”
Market Domination
More
Barriers
Capital
Wisdom
Navigating
Niches
Common
Wealth
Less
Less
More
Global Integration
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Trends of Economic Development
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Growth
Adaptive
Advantage
Competitive
Advantage
Understanding the world
Comparative
Advantage
Understanding marketplace
Developing products
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
2020
Wind of Change...
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"It is not the strongest of the species
that survives, nor the most intelligent;
it is the one that is most adaptable to change.“
Charles Robert Darwin (1809-82)
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Key success factors in KBE...
• Focus on Fundamentals
– Quality of government bureaucracy
– Quality of people
– Quality of physical and technology
infrastructure
• Looking Outward
– International orientation
• Respond and Reinvent
– Turning disadvantage to strength
– Turning danger to opportunity
“Visioning Thailand”
Thailand’s
Dreams
Global
Trends
“Outside-In”
Internal
Assessment
“Inside-Out”
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Where are we now?
Knowledge
Economy
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Next Level of
Global Competition
Strategic Gap II
“Our Competitive Position
in the New Economy”
Thai
Economy
Current Level of
Global Competition
Strategic Gap I
“Get out off the Crisis”
Economic
Crisis
Where are we now?
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Rank of Thailand’s Competitiveness
1
WEF
IMD
18
21
16
New IMD
13
30
30
36
35
41
2541
13 10
20
31
2540
14
2542
2543
33
38
2544
31
30
34
40
50
2545
Sources : 1. IMD survey data of 49 countries
2. WEF survey data of 75 countries
Where are we now?
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Determinants of Competitiveness by IMD
1
10
20
Government
Economic
Overall
Business
27
30
32
34
Infra
2540
38
2541
2542
Source: IMD World Competitiveness Yearbook, 2002
2543
2544
2545
40
50
Compare to others…
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WEF Ranking in 2002
Country
Overall
Technology
Singapore
Taiwan
S.Korea
Malaysia
THAILAND
Philippines
Indoneasia
4 (4)
3 (7)
21 (23)
27 (30)
31 (33)
61 (48)
67 (63)
17 (18)
2 (4)
18 (9)
26 (22)
41 (39)
52 (40)
65 (61)
Economic
Govern’t Environment
7 (6)
27 (24)
32 (43)
33 (38)
39 (41)
70 (63)
77 (65)
Source : The Global Competitiveness Report, 2002
( ) : Rank in 2001
1 (1)
6 (15)
10 (8)
20 (20)
11 (16)
32 (28)
53 (41)
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“Our stocks”
-Natural resources
less critical
-Technology infra. =
investing for future
-Triumph the
capitalism world
-The most
important factor
in KBE
Financial
Capital
Physical
Capital
Human
Capital
Social
Capital
-Supporting factor
that was underutilized
Economic power
Weaknesses
Strengths
• Effectiveness of
direct taxation and
collection
• High saving rate
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• Low access to
finance for business
Financial
Capital
• Rely on factors of
production (capital
and technology)
from abroad
• Depend on
3
major export
markets (USA EU
Japan)
Investment for future...
Weaknesses
Strengths
• Bio-diversity
• Availability of
Infrastructure
(comparing with
other competitor
countries)
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Physical
Capital
• Limited
accessibility to
technology
• Limited value
added R&D
• Inefficient utilisation
of ICT
infrastructure
..To surf knowledge economy...
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Weaknesses
Strengths
• Abundant
workforce
• Wages and fringe
benefit for
workers are good
• Low mobility of
skilled labour
Human
Capital
• Poorly educated
workers/ high
unemployment rate
of youth workforce
• Lack of skilled
labor/ low labor
productivity
• No incentive for
learning new
technology/
creativity
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Low leveraged supporting factor
Weaknesses
Strengths
• Low cost of living
• Non-discrimination
• Unique culture
and tacit knowledge
Social
Capital
• Inadequate health
care service
• High openness
without internal
immunity
• Highly expanding
urbanization
resulting in social
and environmental
problems
What direction we are heading…
“Efforts and courage are
not enough without
purpose and direction.”
John F. Kennedy
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Dare to Dream…
“Imagination will carry us
to worlds that never were.
But without it we go nowhere.”
Carl Sagan
Thailand’s Dreams
1. Economic
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whole new world
Decent Environ.
for Living
Development
Platform
6. Society of
2. Active
Cultural Pride with
Global Sense
International
Player
3. World Leader
7. Country of
4. Innovative
5. Entrepreneurial
in Niche Markets
Nation with Wisdom
and Learning Base
Society
1. Economic Development
Platform
Sustain
Economic
Growth
Productive
Business
Sector
Fair
Income
Distribution
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-Dual-Track Approach
-Global reach, Local link
-Sound economic
foundation and
environment
-Macroeconomic
-Infrastructure
-Legal
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2. Active International Player
Country Level
encouraging cooperation to balancing
power of the existing world order
-Global : WTO, Strategic Partners
-Continental : ACD, APEC, Asian Fund
-Regional : ASEAN
-Neighbor : GMS, IMT-GT
Business Level
linking investment and production in the
region
-Thailand Overseas Investment
3. World Leader in Niche
Market
• Kitchen of the World : Ready-to-Eat
Food, Spicy Food, Tropical Fruits / Finest and
Healthiest Cuisine
• World Health Service Centre : Alternative
Medical Care & Herbal Products
• Detroit of Asia: Pick Up Production
• Asia Tourism Capital : Regional Tourism,
Aviation Transport Hub, Convention and Exhibition
Centre
• Asia Tropical Fashion :
Fabric
Finest Hand-made
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3. World Leader in Niche
Market
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• World Graphic Design and Animation Centre
: Regional Centre of Design & Technology Services
• World Furniture Mart : Finest Home Decoration/
Wooden Furniture & Handicrafts
• World Hospitality International School
• World Leader in Rubber and Rubber
products : Automobile tires
4. Innovative Nation with
Wisdom and Learning Base
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• Continuous investment in R&D and technology
and extending the frontiers of knowledge
• Well environment for attracting and stimulating
innovation
• High accessibility to knowledge and information
across the nation
• Fluent English as a second language
• Possessing strong learning basis :
- Passion for reading, Better accessibility to cheap but good
books
- Thinking school with innovation movement
5. Entrepreneurial Society
• Sound environment for business formation
and development : Capital, Regulations
• Commercial oriented production
• High start-up business rate
• Venture Capital takes financial support role
• Fair competition arena
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6. Society of Cultural
Pride with Global Sense
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• Appreciate our cultural identity
• Willingness to learn and share other cultures
• Strong social institutions
• Peaceful and non-discriminatory society
7. Country of Decent
Environment for Living
• The best place to live and raise the family
• Thai citizen and businesses are well
conscious of environment and natural
resources preservation
• Efficient mechanism for managing and
utilizing natural resources
• Effective policies of sustainability
regulations
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An old quote...
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"Every great achievement was
once considered impossible."
Dare to Do…
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"Vision without action is merely a dream.
Action without vision just passes the time.
Vision with action can change the world."
Joel Barker
What have we done?
Institute of
Competitive
Strategy
National
competitiveness
committee
2020
2010
-7 Dreams
-Restructuring Budget
-PM meets Private
2004
2003
3 Strategic Modules
2002
2000
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Michael Porter’s study
-Foundation for competitiveness
-Cluster strategy
Strategic Approach
I. Translate Dream to
Vision and Goals
II. Develop strategy and
initiatives
III. Implementation setup
IV. Implement
V. Monitor and feedback
Deliverables
• Vision and Goals and high level
Targets
• Strategies and initiatives
• Implementation roadmap
• Detailed Target and measurement
• Implementation Master Plan
• Implementation structure and
system to monitor implementation
• Initiatives being implemented
• Progress/result measured
• Additional initiatives emerged
• Implementation making impact
Quick wins
Phase
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Competitiveness Blueprint
Review external factors
I. Translate Dream
to Vision and Goals
Develop
dream
Define Vision and
Goals
Review internal capabilities
Benchmark
Identify
governmen
t
champions
Generate gap
closure
options
Develop
strategy
Develop
integrated
strategy
III. Implementation
setup
Define implementation
structure
Identify and secure
commitment from
‘HOST’
Mobilize
Handover to
Define
team
team
Key
/resources
Succes
Define
s
tools to
Build public
Factors motivate commitment
team
Develop
initiative
action plan
and targets
Set
measurement
and target
Develop integrated
Implementation Master
Plan and Targets
Develop structure to
manage overall
implementation
Implement initiatives
IV. Implement
Monitor implementation
V. Monitor and
feedback
Draft overall
implementatio
n roadmap
Review
ongoing/
planned
initiatives
Review
existing
strategy
Define development
framework
Revise Vision
and Goals
Monitor team
performance
Identify constraints
and solutions
Mobilize resources
for solutions
Revise Implementation
Master Plan and Target
Simulation modeling
II. Develop strategy
and initiatives
Develop
initiatives
Communication
Conduct
analysis on
pending
issues
Growing the forest…
Macroeconomic, Political, and legal Context
for Development
Microeconomic Foundations of
Development
Sophistication of
Company Operations
and Strategy
Quality of the
Microeconomic
Business Environment
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Competitiveness Agenda 2003
• Upgrade the Business Environment
• Decentralize More of Economic Policy to
the Regional Level
• Activate Cluster Development
• Redefine the Roles of Business and
Government
• Transform Company Strategies
• Lead a Cross-National Strategy
Dare to Differ…
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Think...
“Think the Unthinkable”
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Pop Quiz…
The parking
meter
A journalist
The ball point
A sculptor
The vacuum
cleaner
A bridge builder
The morse code
The painter
Development platform
-Training for employability
-Cultivate skill
Education
Sector
Business
Sector
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-Value creation
-Use of knowledge
and best practice
-Innovation & Quality
management
-Focused on markets
and investment in
productivity
People
-Employ an innovation mindset
-Learning differently
-not just qualifications, but a
questioning mind, passion and drive
-not just leaders, but every level
Government
-Fully creating the environment
for innovation movement
Cruise through the knowledge
economy...
Individual
• Employ an
innovative mindset
• Crave the
questioning mind,
passion, and drive
• Learn differently
•Learn
Business
• Value creation
• Use of knowledge
and best practice
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Associate
• Cooperate for
clustering
• Go competition
• Think outside-in
• Innovation &
quality management and globally
• Opportunities
acquirer
•Play an proactive
role in development
•Relearn
•Unlearn
“People who fail not because of crises...
but because they run out of ideas.”
Any Question?
"The important thing is
not to stop questioning."
Albert Einstein
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Think Economic
and Social Strategy,
Think NESDB.
Further information, Please visit our website :
www.nesdb.go.th