Flood Forecasting and Warning Services Bureau Initiatives

Loddon River at Cairn Curran January 2011 – Photo courtesy of the State of Victoria Department of Environment and Primary Industries Flood Forum Victoria – Mildura 12-13 November 2014 Elma Kazazic, Regional Hydrology Manager – Victoria, Bureau of Meteorology

Presentation outline

      Bureau of Meteorology drivers Documenting Bureau Flood Warning Services Hydrological Forecasting System (HyFS) Warning Entry Tool Training and Competency Key deliverables for 2014/15 Avoca River at Charlton January 2011 – Photo courtesy of the State of Victoria Department of Environment and Primary Industries

Flooding in the last 5 years

 More than $15 billion in damages across all states  Record flood levels at over 120 locations across multiple states  Many towns flooded multiple times with back-to-back record floods  Victorian Floods Review, QLD COI and Munro Review of the Bureau Wimmera River at Glynwylin January 2011 – Photo courtesy of the State of Victoria Department of Environment and Primary Industries

Back-to-back La Niña events 2010-11 2011-12

Back-to-back record flood years 2010-11 2011-12

What follows big floods?

Inquiries and reviews

Commonwealth Government response to the Munro review

Allocated $58.5m over four years commencing 2013-14 to:       Increase the number of frontline meteorologists and hydrologists Establish a National Centre for Extreme Weather (now named Extreme Weather Desk) Implement a next generation flood forecasting system Implement an advanced storm surge forecasting system Implement vital infrastructure repairs/upgrades Standardise service level agreements and cost recovery arrangements with emergency services

Bureau initiatives in flood forecasting and warning

Improving capability and capacity on many levels       Nationally consistent services, systems and tools Creation of a National Operations Team Publication of formalised arrangements and service levels Investment in state-of-the-art flood forecasting system Investment in advanced training and competency assessment More forecasters to manage extreme events

Formalise arrangements and service levels

   National Arrangements – outline roles and responsibilities Service Level Specifications - define levels of service and associated performance targets Data Sharing Agreements – document flood warning data sharing arrangements

HyFS – New flood forecasting and warning system

     Event modelling for 150+ basins across Australia, 50 SWIFT models, 560+ forecast locations, 5000 rain gauges and 3000 river gauges Moving to continuous modelling out to 7 days, and the generation of scenarios Enables use of rainfall radar and numerical weather prediction output Improved data visualisation and quality control Uses best available rainfall observations and forecasts

HyFS – New flood forecasting and warning system

Project Time Lines Stage 1 Requirements (2012) Stage 2 Functional Modelling System (2013) Stage 3 Stage 4 Data System (HyDS) (2013/14) Model Migration (2014) Stage 5 Operationalise (2015) Stage 6 Extension (2015/16)

T0

Warning Entry Tool - WET

     Nationally consistent flood watches and warnings Better connection to downstream systems through standard formats  CAP, AMOC, XML Better processes and linkages to service level requirements (from SLS) will lead to better quality and consistency Encode numerical forecasts and link to HyFS for verification and training Foundation for • Flood web refresh • Automated verification • Automated text generation

Warning Entry Tool - WET

Advanced training and competency assessment

    Structured training and assessment Role-based operational roles Teaches best practice, ensures minimum standards Enables greater staff mobility and cross-region operations support.

Flood Warning Competency Framework

Key deliverables for 2014/15 Deliverable

Flood watch service in NT and QLD Competency based training for HyFS, STF and URBS Warning Entry Tool rollout Initial HyFS implementation New public Short Term Flow service Quality Management System ISO9001 ANZEMC implementation National Arrangements, Service level Specification, Data Sharing Agreements

Date

Oct/Nov 14 Dec 14 (QPF June 15) Apr 15 June 15 June 15 June 15 (may carry over to 15-16) Ongoing Ongoing

Thank you

Elma Kazazic Regional Hydrology Manager, Victoria Australian Bureau of Meteorology [email protected]

Campaspe River at Eppalock Reservoir January 2011 – Photo courtesy of the State of Victoria Department of Environment and Primary Industries