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National Human Development Report Nigeria 2008-2009 Achieving Growth with Equity Presentation Outline Focus and Approach Methodology Overview and Key Messages Recommendations Focus and Approach Three essential points Danger of focusing on growth as an end in itself Growth alone will not help achieve Vision 20:2020 + MDGs The win-win choice is to opt for growth with equity What is growth with equity? Income as a means to human development not an end Simple but powerful idea: gains in human development increase labour productivity, the main asset of the poor. This, in turn, increases the output of goods and services. Higher output means a bigger economy with more resources to invest in human development. A virtuous cycle, thus, takes effect. Methodology Findings of studies on growth, equity and poverty Utilized both national and state level indicators: State-level index of economic activity, as a proxy measure of GDP State level Human Development Index (HDI), poverty and inequality data – first in Nigeria Updated economy wide Input-Output tables for economic analysis Prepared by Nigerian experts plus NBS Guided by an advisory board composed of government, civil society, academics and UNDP Overview and Key Messages Good recent macroeconomic performance: significant growth in recent years - per capita income crossed the $1,000 mark in 2006 Expansion in agriculture as main driver of overall growth From low bases other sectors have experienced expansion as well – e.g. communication and banking But there has been no structural transformation Overview and Key Messages But inequality has remained high: • One of the highest in the world (0.49) • 65% of assets in the hands of 20% of population 1st Quintile – 1.43% 2nd Quintile – 4.11% 3rd Quintile – 12.82% 4th Quintile – 17.04% 5th Quintile – 64.78% Overview and Key Messages HDI 2007 Poverty is still widespread: prevalence has declined but… •Extreme poverty has risen •Number of poor people has risen •Driver of growth, agriculture, accounts for 67% of the poor Human development has improved but more slowly than peers Nigeria Senegal Kenya Sudan Comeroun Ghana India E/Guinea Botswana S/Africa Egypt Indonesia Algeria Tunisia China Brazil Malaysia Libya Korea 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 Overview and Key Messages… S/No State HDIs reflect Country HDI States (HDI) Value Human Poverty Index S/No States (HDI) Value Human Poverty Index 0.436 0.410 0.377 0.411 0.429 0.607 0.488 0.463 0.465 0.592 0.475 0.478 0.392 0.633 0.475 0.351 0.278 0.434 0.717 43.0 1 Abia 0.516 21.9 19 Kano 2 Adamawa 0.372 42.4 20 Katsina 3 Akwa Ibom 0.616 27.1 21 Kebbi 4 Anambra 0.427 22.8 5 Bauchi 0.291 48.8 6 Bayelsa 0.593 32.5 7 Benue 0.532 36.0 8 Borno 0.345 55.9 9 Cross River 0.539 31.9 0.592 23.6 22 Kogi 23 kwara 24 Lagos 25 Nasarawa 26 Niger 27 Ogun 28 Ondo 29 Osun 10 Delta 11 Ebonyi 0.401 34.3 30 Oyo 12 Edo 0.465 21.7 31 Plateau 13 Ekiti 0.523 22.1 32 Rivers 14 Enugu 0.502 28.6 33 Sokoto 15 Gombe 0.353 45.0 34 Taraba 16 Imo 0.510 22.7 35 Yobe 17 Jigawa 0.362 48.4 36 Zamfara 0.448 34.3 37 FCT, Abuja 18 Kaduna 49.9 50.2 34.4 33.3 14.5 38.5 42.8 24.5 23.9 22.1 21.9 36.5 22.8 40.5 43.4 58.0 42.6 21.0 Overview and Key Messages Disconnect between growth, poverty reduction and human development Why? The NHDR argues that… High inequality limits opportunity for poor people to benefit from growth Nature and content of growth (low employment elasticity, that is, employment not keeping pace with growth expansion of labour force) Structure of the economy still unchanged unlike in other emerging economies (dominance of primary production, weak farm-factory linkage, disconnect between finance and real sector) Slow progress in social indicators Underlying institutional weakness Recommendations An ambitious but common sense agenda of action Discipline, consistency and continuity of priorities and policies over the long-term will be key 1. Create an environment for high levels of investment and growth: infrastructure (rural and rural-to-urban), spending efficiency and effectiveness, macro stability, institutional reform and financial sector intermediation 2. Make growth pro-poor and inclusive: human capital development (basic education, primary health care and nutrition, safe water and sanitation), vocational education, safety nets and investment in rural areas 3. Achieve effective multi-tier cooperation in government: commitment and engagement by States and LGAs is key Thank You.