Transcript Slide 1

KENYAN VISION 2040
PRESENTATION TO THE “20TH ENGINEERS
INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE 2013” AT TOM
MBOYA LABOUR COLLEGE, KISUMU
CONTRIBUTED BY:
We are not alone
N = R*. fp. ne. fl. fi fc. L (DR. FRANK DRAKE’S EQUATION)
N = Number of communicative civilisations in the Milky Way at our
current level of civilisation;
R* = Rate of formation of “sun like” stars;
fp = Fraction of those stars (*R) that have planets;
ne = Number of “earth like” planets per star that has planets;
fℓ = Fraction of earth like planets (ne) where life actually develops;
fi = Fraction of life sites ( fℓ ) where intelligence develops;
fc = Fraction of intelligent civilizations (fi) that develop detectable
communication in space;
L = “Lifetime" of communicating civilizations;
What shall we tell the alien?
 How we elect leaders to lord over us whether in democracy or
communism or many other confused systems – he will not be
interested
 How we deliver justice arbitrarily – he will not be interested
 Our pastimes: football, dancing, weddings and bull fighting – he
will not be interested
 Our senseless habits bordering on insanity where we overfeed
then spend a great deal of time and resources reducing
accumulation of fat in our bodies - he will not be interested
If our experience with UFOs and crop circles can guide us then what
the alien wants to know is simply our technological advancement of
which the Engineer and the scientist are the custodians
Crop circle or formation
238 m diameter
crop circle in the
form of a double
triskelion on an oats
field, England,
2001.
Origin: unknown
Our salvation lies in Vision 2040
Contents
 Vision 2040: Targets and requirements
 Recent railway development in Nairobi
 Apprehension about large infrastructure projects
 Purpose built cities and designated transport corridors
 Funding Vision 2040 projects
 Engineering opportunities
 Vision 2040: Developing infrastructure
 Case studies for passengers and freight transport
 Typical minor challenges building a railway
 Benefits of building railways
 Thank you
Vision 2040: Objectives
 A first world economy;
 Learned, well educated and well informed population;
 Economic, scientific and technological super power;
 Adequate military strength;
 Living in harmony with the Environment;
 *“Healthy food” secure (a healthy nation from balanced diet,
focused primary health care and general peace of mind);
 A peaceable, tranquil and progressive country in harmony with
all neighbours and all nations in the Universe.
Requirements: Transport Infrastructure
To achieve Vision 2040 transport infrastructure development will
be one the key pillars.
 Develop transport infrastructure well connected in the country
and into the region for Kenya to be the preferred transport and
logistics hub in the region
 Assist neighbouring countries to connect their
transport infrastructure to the Kenyan network;
 Create and define in law “trunk” transport infrastructure
corridors.
Requirements: Others
 Abandon oil exploration and exploitation within Kenya;
 *But, refine any all crude oil from the Region passing through
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Kenya;
Reduce to a minimum reliance on off-shore tourism and
diaspora handouts;
*Nurture and develop local, corporate and individual (US$)
billionaires within the shortest possible time;
Develop new purpose built cities;
Assist neighbouring countries to achieve first world
economic status;
Transport infrastructure: correct utilisation
 Road:
 Small passenger volumes over short and medium distances
 Parcels (smalls) over short distances
 Undefined origin and destinations (the last mile)
 Long distance freight
 Airports:
 Passengers over medium and long distances (≥ 800 km)
 High valued parcels
 Leisure
 Defence
 Water:
 High volumes passengers over short distances such as ferries
 Leisure (ocean cruises and inland waters leisure boats)
 Fishing
 Intercontinental high volume freight (containers, fluids and dry cargo)
 Inland waters – leisure and bulk freight
Transport infrastructure: correct utilisation (cont.)
 Pipeline:
 Bulk fluids (water, petroleum products, natural gas)
 Sewer
 Power lines
 Electricity
 Fibre optic cables
 Speech and data
 Railway
 High volume passengers over short, medium and long
distances
 High volume freight overland for short and long
distances (including intercontinental transport)
FROM
Typical high
volume short
distance rail
passenger
service;
showing also
multipurpose
use of a
railway
corridor
antiquated
TO
Syokimau
Railway
Station
Train on
platform
TO
TO
Syokimau
Railway
Station Park
and ride
facility
TO
Syokimau
Railway
Station Park
and ride
facility
Imara Daima
Railway Station
under
construction
(60%
complete)
Makadara
Railway
Station under
construction
(70%
complete)
Developing Large Projects
 Mindset about large infrastructure projects particularly for
public transport
 General bitterness over money being "eaten", cost
overruns, and white elephants
 Unnecessary public/media scrutiny benefiting auditors,
NGOs, agitators and lawyers; discouraging developers,
engineers and users;
 Remember: these are teething problems all countries go
through on the road to full development status
Infrastructure Projects “Eating” curve
Cost of recovering the 8.5% is
greater than cost of the whole
project
100%
8.5%
0%
Residual “eating” level
1960/70s
1980s
1990s
2000
2010
Vision 2040: Purpose-built Cities
Lamu:
 Deep water seaport for Post Panama-X vessels (petroleum oil tankers, edible oil
tankers, container ships and general freight ships)
Isiolo:
 Oil refinery, petrochemical industries, products marketing and distribution centre
 Transport and logistical hub for Northern Kenya, Ethiopia and South Sudan
Homa Bay:
 Free Port to serve the Great Lakes Region
Nairobi :
 Regional financial hub
 Transport and logistical hub for the Great Lakes Region
Lodwa/Turkana:
 Bread basket for strategic food reserve – irrigated and natural commercial farming and
livestock production; Agro industries; animal food products industries
Purpose built cities and Trunk transport
Corridors (red) for Vision 2040
Transport corridors
 Secure and designate transport corridors sufficient for all the
anticipated transport elements to speed up development
process;
 Transport infrastructure development should not be left in
the hands of counties;
 Undertake robust studies to identify the most
appropriate modes of transport to be promoted
within a corridor
LAMU DEEP WATER SEAPORT
• Crude and refined
petroleum oil
pipelines connects
the Port to Isiolo.
• All transport
infrastructure
elements provided
between Lamu and
Isiolo
Proposed Lamu Port: Location
Isiolo Crude Oil Refinery
Capacity > 200,000
barrels per day;
Crude and refined
petroleum oil pipeline to
Juba and Lamu;
Refined petroleum oil
pipeline to Addis Ababa
and Nairobi;
Transport infrastructure
elements between Isiolo,
Nairobi, Juba and Addis
Ababa
Isiolo Petrochemical Industries
Aim at 100% value
addition on any crude
oil passing through
Kenyan Soil
Homa Bay Duty Free Port
Homa Bay
Duty Free
Port
strategically
located to
serve the
Great Lakes
Region
Typical Financial District proposed for Upper Hill Nairobi
Provide easy
access from
Airport,
ample supply of
electricity, water
and
communication
Modern mechanised Farming for
food security proposed for Turkana
County. Note: Turkana County has
more arable land and fresh water
than Israel!
Modern mechanised large scale
livestock production proposed for
Turkana County
Funding Vision 2040 projects
Do not under-rate your Government’s capacity to mobilise funds when
the need arises. Sources:
 GoK budgets (60%):
 Vision 2040 development levy – 40%
 Taxation – 10%
 Capital Markets 10%
 GoK borrowing (27%):
 Concessional loans = 15%
 Commercial loans =10% (8% locally, 2% offshore)
 String-less grants = 2%
 Private investment = 8% (keep it very low – citizens have no control
over private investors leading losses and delays to projects and poor
quality of service delivery)
 Miscellaneous = 5%
Engineering opportunities
 Chinese Adage: In a country where engineers have small
minds, their Government will think small; in a country where
engineers have big minds, their Government will always find
money from “somewhere” for big projects;
 Vision 2030 was driven and owned by economists, political
scientists, prophets, politicians and other “soft” scientists – result:
dismal achievement so far;
 Vision 2040 to be owned and driven by those engineers who
have BIG MINDS.
 China, South Korea, Japan, the US are seeking new homes for
their large scale industries suitable for Vision 2030 objectives;
Appropriate transport: Case study – Nairobi - Thika
Corridor for road and rail commuter services
Nairobi – Thika super-highway
 10 lanes
 220+ metres corridor
 Hypothetical capacity = 1,800 vehicles per hour per lane (beyond this,
congestion would reduces rate of flow of vehicles)
 Environmental pollution = high
 Total delivery at both ends = 41,400 passengers per hour (discounting
car-pooling and assuming 2.3 passengers per vehicle to take into
account buses and mini-buses)
 Cost per Km = US$ 7.92 million (excluding land acquisition,
demolitions and relocation expenses
Appropriate transport: case study – Nairobi - Thika
Corridor for road and rail commuter services
Commuter Rail system
 Existing dilapidated Nairobi – Ruiru line delivers 20,000 passengers within a
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span of four hour between Nairobi and Ruiru (operations are limited to
morning and evening peak hours)
Corridor width = 30 metres
After modernisation: frequency of trains = one (1) train movement every
three minutes in each direction,
Capacity per train: 1,800 passengers (each train has 10 coaches of capacity
180 passengers)
Hypothetical delivery: 72,000 per hour (20 trains reaching either destination
per hour)
Estimated delivery: 50,400 per hour (assuming 70% operational efficiency
Cost of double track railway (Nairobi - Thika) per Km ≈ US$ 2.97 million
Summary of Comparisons
Item
Number of lanes
Nairobi – Thika Highway Nairobi – Thika Railway
10
Two (2) tracks
120 metres
30 metres
41,400 p/hour
50,400 p/hour
8,280 p/hour
50,400 p/hour
1
6.1
High
Low
7.92 US$ M/km
2.97 US$ M/km
Capital cost comparison
2.67
1
Cost of operation
High
Low
Corridor width
Delivery at both ends
Two (2) lane delivery for
comparison
Efficiency of delivery
Environmental pollution
Cost of installation
A case study: Mombasa – Nairobi freight transport
corridor
Road transport
 Estimated freight from Mombasa Port for up-country in 2020 ≈ 25 million
tonnes
 Number of lanes required = 8
 Corridor width = 150+ metres
 Hypothetical number of trucks required = 2,869 vehicles per day (assuming
each vehicle carrying 35 tonnes of freight on average and assuming 70%
operation efficiency) = 120 vehicles per hour
 Average delivery speed = 21 Km/hr (i.e. 24 hours from Mombasa to
Nairobi including disruptions at weighbridges and checkpoints)
 Environmental pollution = high
 Cost per Km = US$ 6.34 million (excluding land acquisition and relocation
expenses
A case study: Mombasa – Nairobi freight transport
Railway freight transport
 Estimated freight from Mombasa Port for up-country in 2020 ≈ 25
million tonnes
 Number of lanes required = single track
 Corridor width = 30 metres (minimum = 20 metres)
 Hypothetical number of trains per day = 19 (assuming each train
carrying 4,000 tonnes of freight on average and assuming 90%
operation efficiency)
 Average delivery speed = 65 Km/hr (i.e. 8 hours Kilindini to
Embakasi)
 Environmental pollution = low
 Cost of construction per Km = US$ 2.86 million (excluding land
acquisition and relocation expenses
Summary of Comparisons
Item
Mombasa – Nairobi Road Mombasa - Nairobi Railway
Freight volume
25 million tonnes
25 million tonnes
Corridor width
100+ metres
30 metres
*2,869/day
19/day
8
1
21 Km/hr
65 Km/hr
High
Low
6.34 US$ M/km
US$ 2.86 M/Km
Capital cost comparison
2.22
1
Cost of operation
High
Low
Number of trucks/trains
Number of lanes/tracks
Average delivery speed
Environmental pollution
Cost of construction
*One (1) track loaded with 35 tonnes of freight leaving
the Port every 30 seconds
240 TEUs container train compared
to a loaded truck with one (1) 40foot container
Comparative costs for long distance
delivery:
• Truck = US$ 0.12 per tonne-km
• Rail = US$ 0.065 per tonne-km
• Cost of transport reduced on
average by 46%
E.g. container MSA - KLA
• Road = US$ 3,025
• Rail = US$ 1,788
• Savings = 41%
MSA – MLB/KSM SGR: Typical Engineering challenges
Section
Changamwe to
Mazeras
Tsavo National park
Challenge
Steep climb and
raged terrain
Environmental
Chyulu water tower Environmental
Nairobi to Kedong Steep descent and
Valley to Longonot raged terrain
Mitigation
Cuttings and
viaducts
Fencing, animal
underpass
Viaducts
Deep cuttings,
viaducts and tunnels
MSA – MLB/KSM SGR: Typical Engineering challenges
Section
Mbaruk swamp
Challenge
Environmental
Mitigation
Mitigation: a cluster of
culverts
Nakuru to Timboroa
Steep ascent out of Rift
Valley
Steep descent, ragged
terrain into the Lake
Basin
Land compensation and
PAPs relocation
Two tunnels ≈ 1.5 km
each
Viaducts, long bridges
Timboroa to Kisumu
Whole system
Minimise
Kisumu Branch Line – steep descent and rough terrain
Kisumu Branch Line – a typical challenge
Kisumu Branch Line – gorge
Building a railway: Benefits
Jobs creation
 Direct jobs creation {at least 60 jobs per kilometre of track (Mombasa
–Nairobi Railway will create 30,000 jobs with a dwell time of 5years)}
 Jobs creation from rapid industrialisation ≈ 10,000 (large quantities of
local inputs such as steels, cement, aggregates, electricity transmission
poles and cables, roofing materials, glass, plastics, rubber etc. all made
locally will be required)
 Jobs creation from service industry ≈ 3,000 (providers of foods,
accommodation and leisure)
 Jobs creation from developed skills ≈ 3,000 (self employment after the
project by masons, carpenters, mechanics and electricians)
Development of skills: For future use locally, regionally and globally
Operating a railway: Benefits
Jobs creation Mombasa – Nairobi Railway
 Direct employment ≈ 4,000
 Supply chain ≈ 2,000
 Service providers
Reduced cost of transportation
 Competitive tariffs
Safer roads
 Reduced accidents causing loss of life, injury and damage to
property
Pleasant environment
 Reduced pollution
Operating a railway: Benefits (cont.)
 Savings in foreign exchange: Less fuel requirement for
transportation
 Appreciation of property value along the corridor
 *Decongestion of major cities: Living further from
working place
 Industrialisation along the railway corridor: Easy
access and cheaper means of transportation
 Annual GDP growth of at least 1%: Increasing volumes
of regional trade
SUMMARY
 The Aliens will soon be with us here. We must prepare to show
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them robust technology, failing which they will subject us to
slavery, abuse and colonialism;
VISION 2040 is our salvation;
Engineering, science and technology is the route to that
salvation;
Only engineers can deliver that salvation;
The aliens will only spare this country the agony of slavery, abuse
and colonialism at the sight of our high speed, high capacity,
reliable, cost effective long and short distance railway
technology!
DISCLAIMER
Some of the thoughts presented here might
be thought-provoking. The author shall not
be held responsible for subsequent damage
resulting from any thoughts provoked by
these thoughts
THANK YOU