Transcript Slide 1

The Changing Face of the
Texas Labor Market
Labor Market & Career Information (LMCI)
Texas Workforce Commission
[email protected]
(512) 936-3105
Harry Truman is purported to have said,
All my economists say,
“on the one, or on the
other hand”…what I
really need is a onehanded economist.
Is it a recovery or an
expansion? Is the difference
economic or
a crisis in confidence?
Corporate profits are up, but not payments to workers
Consumers are staying in cash
Disposable Personal Income is Flat
Consumer and Business Confidence remains low
Iraq
War
Hurricane
Katrina
Debt
Ceiling
Debate?
Great Recession
Is the Economic Glass
Half Full?
or
Half Empty?
• Unemployment rate falling
• More sectors contribute to
job growth
• Corporations cash-rich
• 31 months of job growth
• Spending is up, consumers
lowering debt burden
• Consumer confidence is
improving
• House prices near bottom?
• UI initial claims are down
• Real estate, construction
and govt. still reeling
• European debt/bank
crisis still looming
• Slowing global GDP?
• Energy/gas prices?
• Lack of confidence in
demand, political system
• Still tight lending
standards & terms
• Net worth down$9.4 tril
from peak
Fight of the Century: Keynes vs. Hayek
9
The global labor market is very messy
Comparative Total Population Change in Texas
2000-2010
2000
Population
2010
Population
United States
281,421,906
308,745,538 27,323,632
Texas
California
Florida
Georgia
North Carolina
Arizona
20,851,820
33,871,648
15,982,378
8,186,453
8,049,313
5,130,632
25,145,561
37,253,956
18,801,310
9,687,653
9,535,483
6,392,017
ABS CHG
2000-10
PCT CHG
2000-10
4,293,741
3,382,308
2,818,932
1,501,200
1,486,170
1,261,385
9.7%
20.6%
10.0%
17.6%
18.3%
18.5%
24.6%
Decennial census counts for April 1, 2000 and April 1, 2010
12
Where Texans Live
Number of People
82 - 9,999
10,000 - 24,999
Where Texans have moved
Percent Change
-21% - -10.1%
-10% - -0.1%
25,000 - 99,999
0% - 24.9%
100,000 - 999,999
25% - 54.9%
1,000,000 - 4,092,459
55% - 81.8%
Texas becomes more Hispanic
Tough Competition: Generational Employment
in Texas 2000 - 2010
5,000,000
4,500,000
4,000,000
3,500,000
3,000,000
2,500,000
2,000,000
1,500,000
1,000,000
500,000
0
2000
2001
2002
Baby Boomers
2003
2004
2005
2006
Generation X
2007
2008
2009
Millennials
2010
How many Millenials does it take to screw
in a light bulb?
1. One to
the instructions
2. One to post the instructions on the wall
of their
page
3. One to post the
video of their
work showing collaboration
One Baby Boomer to tell them what a
terrific, wonderful, spectacular job they
did with the light bulb
Texas Labor Market Statistics (SA)
Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
April 2012
Mar 2012
April 2011
Texas Labor Force
(+141,000 YOY)
12.568 Mil
12.539 Mil
12.427 Mil
Texas Unemployed
(-130,000 YOY)
862,900
881,000
992,900
6.9%
7.0%
8.0%
Texas U Rate
U.S. Labor Force
(+945,000 YOY)
154.365 Mil 154.707 Mil 153.420 Mil
U.S. Unemployed
(-1,292,000 YOY)
12,500,000
U.S. Urate
8.1%
12,673,000 13,792,000
8.2%
9.0%
Declining Rates of Workforce Participation
LFPR
E/P
Regional Job Growth Rates
Big 10 Texas metro areas – 4th Quarter to 4th Quarter
Metro area
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Austin-Round Rock
+4.9% -0.01%
-3.0%
+3.1%
+3.3%
Beaumont-Port Arthur
Corpus Christi
Dallas-Fort Worth
+1.2% +1.7%
+1.7% -0.5%
+2.8% +1.4%
+2.5% -0.01%
-6.0%
-0.6%
-3.9%
-4.5%
+1.9%
+1.9%
+0.7%
+1.7%
+1.2%
+0.3%
+1.9%
+2.3%
El Paso
Houston-Baytown
+3.0%
+4.4%
+0.1%
+1.1%
-1.7%
-3.9%
+2.2%
+1.7%
+2.4%
+2.8%
McAllen-Edinburg
San Antonio
Victoria
+3.2%
+2.1%
+0.4%
+1.6%
+1.0%
-0.2%
-0.8%
-2.1%
-5.4%
+1.6%
+1.7%
+1.9%
+1.6%
+1.9%
+2.4%
Brownsville-Harlingen
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, Texas Workforce Commission
Texas Total Nonagricultural Employment
(Statewide, Seasonally Adjusted)
10,800,000
10,600,000
10,400,000
10,200,000
10,000,000
9,800,000
9,600,000
9,400,000
9,200,000
Texas 2000-2011 3rd Quarter Wages
$14,000
$12,109.50
$11,043.50
$12,000
$9,976.72
$10,000
$8,543.28
$8,807.83
$8,680.90
$8,000
$6,000
$4,000
$2,000
$0
$9,329.72
$9,017.34
$10,732.22
$10,222.32
$11,391.83
$10,978.37
Texas Goods producing Industries Employment Index
1995-2012
180
170
Mining
160
150
Construction
140
130
120
110
100
90
80
Total Nonagricultural
Government
Manufacturing
Texas Industry Growth March 2011-12 YOY
NAICS Industry
March 2012 ABS CHG Yearly %
Total Nonfarm
10,741,700 245,700
2.3%
Total Private Sector
8,960,100 300,600
3.5%
Goods producing
1,677,200
65,000
4.0%
Service-providing
8,686,300 180,700
2.0%
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
2,143,400
54,900
2.6%
Professional and Business Services
1,373,900
51,000
3.9%
Leisure and Hospitality
1,084,400
49,900
4.8%
Educational and Health Services
1,454,600
47,500
3.4%
Mining and Logging
261,900
36,400 16.1%
Manufacturing
850,400
23,700
2.9%
Financial Activities
652,100
16,400
2.6%
Other Services
378,200
14,300
3.9%
Construction
564,900
4,900
0.9%
Information
196,300
1,600
0.8%
Government
1,781,600 -54,900 -3.0%
Eagle Ford Shale:
24 county region
1. $1.3 billion in gross state
product, $2.9 total output
2. $511 million in salaries (2010)
3. Supports 12,601 jobs
4. $108 million in tax revenues
5. 2,828 drilling permits issued
through 2011
Quits are up. Layoffs are Flat. Implications?
Quits
Layoffs
Employees Per New Startup Firm in Texas
4.0
3.9
Average Number of Workers
3.8
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3.1
3.0
Employees Per Startup Firm (Moving 4
Quarter Average)
Texas New Hires 1stQTR2011
Texas New Hires from the Census Bureau LED Database
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
Industry (NAICS subsector code)
Food Services and Drinking Places (722)
Administrative and Support Services (561)
Ambulatory Health Care Services (621)
Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (541)
Specialty Trade Contractors (238)
General Merchandise Stores (452)
Nursing and Residential Care Facilities (623)
Credit Intermediation and Related Activities (522)
Merchant Wholesalers, Durable Goods (423)
Food and Beverage Stores (445)
Hospitals (622)
Clothing and Clothing Accessories Stores (448)
Social Assistance and Child Care(624)
Support Activities for Mining (213)
Construction of Buildings (236)
New Hires New Hires
(2011 Q1) (2010 Q1)
646,697
85,211
68,810
48,226
42,418
20,265
24,710
16,905
16,110
14,946
14,740
15,202
18,074
12,438
12,873
9,407
564,799
76,519
60,743
45,319
36,379
19,413
21,264
16,192
15,245
11,255
14,002
14,690
15,995
11,397
6,969
8,965
Growth Occupations (most jobs) for Texas for 2008-2018
Type of Job
1. Fast Food Prep Worker
Annual
Decade
Openings Growth Rate
Required
education/training
7,845
42%
Short-term On Job Training
2. Elementary School Teacher
6,110
39%
Bachelor’s degree
3. Retail Salesperson
5,430
15%
Moderate On Job Training
4. Registered Nurse
5,365
32%
Associate’s degree
5. Home Health Aide
5,105
55%
Short-term On Job Training
6. Customer Service Rep
5,005
23%
Moderate On Job Training
7. Waitress/Waiter
4,530
24%
Short-term On Job Training
8. Personal & Home Care Aide 4,400
47%
Short-term On Job Training
9. Office Clerk
3,960
17%
Short-term On Job Training
10. Cashier
3,690
13%
Short-term On Job Training
11. Secondary School Teacher
3,105
31%
Bachelor’s degree
12. Construction Worker
3,090
22%
Moderate On Job Training
Fastest Growing Texas Occupations 2018 - Projected
Growth Occupations
2009
Education preferred
Salary
1. Biomedical Engineers
2. Home Health Aides
3. Network Systems & Data
Communications Analysts
Bachelor's degree
Short-term OJT
$66,729
$18,849
Bachelor's degree
$76,420
4. Petroleum Engineers
5. Athletic Trainers
Bachelor's degree $126,241
Bachelor's degree $45,873
6. Personal & Home Care Aides
7. Electrical & Electronics Repairers,
Powerhouse, Substation & Relay
Short-term OJT
Postsecondary
vocational training
$16,211
8. Financial Examiners
9. Medical Scientists
Bachelor's degree
Doctoral degree
$76,359
$64,386
10. Special Education Teachers
Bachelor's degree
$49,856
$55,250
Expected Growth Occupations in STEM in
Texas 2008-2018
Pay Range
Type of Job
Minimum Required
1. Registered Nurse
2. Accountant/Auditor
3. Computer Systems Analyst
4. Computer Support Specialist
5. Software Engineer
6. Computer Programmer
7. Financial Manager
8. Computer Network Admin
9. Civil Engineer
10. Pharmacy Technician
11. Medical Manager
12. Financial Analyst
13. Pharmacist
Associate’s degree
$48,000 - $75,000
Bachelor’s degree
$40,000 - $82,000
Bachelor’s degree
$50,000 - $97,000
Associate’s degree
$31,000 - $62,000
Bachelor’s degree
$62,000 - $113,000
Bachelor’s degree
$45,000 - $97,000
Bachelor’s degree
$63,000 - $138,000
Bachelor’s degree
$44,000 - $82,000
Bachelor’s degree
$53,000 - $107,000
Moderate training
$23,000 - $34,000
Master’s degree
$53,000 - $109,000
Bachelor’s degree
$47,000 - $96,000
Master’s degree
$90,000 - $122,000
Texas Job Posting Activity: The Conference Board HWOL
No. of Job Ads
350,000
No. Unemployed
1,200,000
332,616
300,000
1,000,000
250,000
800,000
200,000
600,000
150,000
400,000
200,000
0
100,000
Unemployment
HWOL
50,000
0
Where The Job Postings Are Located?
Metro Area
Dallas-Fort Worth
Houston-Sugar Land
San Antonio
Austin-Round Rock
El Paso
Corpus Christi
Killeen-Temple
McAllen-Edinburg
Tyler
Lubbock
Postings
166,078
129,406
55,978
53,225
12,264
9,831
7,885
7,053
6,626
6,559
Metro Area
Odessa
Waco
Beaumont
Midland
Amarillo
College Station
Longview
Abilene
Brownsville
Laredo
Postings
5,301
5,280
5,274
4,835
4,742
4,519
3,796
3,776
3,503
2,877
Based on Job Postings listed online for previous 90 days as Feb. 20, 2012, compiled by Wanted Analytics and the Conference Board for TWC
Texas HWOL Job Postings Last 90 Days April 2012
Occupational Title
Postings
Preferred education
1. Registered Nurse
30,836
Associate’s/Bachelors
2. Truck Driver (heavy/tractor trailer)
18,497
Short term OJT
3. Retail Salesperson
15,803
Short term OJT
4. Computer Systems Analyst
15,574
Bachelor’s degree
5. Manager of Retail Workers
14,919 Related Work Experience
6. Customer Service Representative
12,674
Moderate OJT
7. Web Developer
12,598
Associate’s degree
8. Computer Support Specialist
11,776
Associate’s degree
9. Manager of Food Prep Workers
10,721 Related Work Experience
10. Accountant
9,825
Bachelor’s degree
11. Non-technical Sales Rep, WH & Man
9,627
Related Work Experience
12. Network/Computer Systems Admin
9,613
Bachelor’s degree
13. Secretary/Admin Assistant
9,510
Moderate OJT
Jobs Titles That Didn’t Exist Just 5 Years Ago
Job Title
Job Title
1. App Developer
11. Content Developer/Manager
2. Market Researcher Data Miner
12. Product Blogger
3. Educational Admissions Consultant
13. Disaster Recovery IT Manager
4. User Experience Designer
14. Cyborg Anthropologist
5. Social Media Manager
15. Interior Redesigner
6. Chief Listening Officer
16. Chief Sustainability Officer
7. Cloud Computing Operations Manager 17. Energy Manager
8. Elder Care Services Consultant
18. Senior Citizen Move Manager
9. Search Engine Optimization Manager
19. Patient Advocate
10. Millennial Generation Consultant
20. Online Reputation Manager
Source: Forbes magazine and Monster.com
Education Mismatch: Texas Unemployed vs. Job Postings
Doctoral Degree
0.6%
.8%
Professional Degree
0.3%
1.6%
Masters Degree
0.9%
3.6%
Bachelor’s + Work Experience
3.4%
Bachelor’s Degree
8.5%
22.7%
Associate’s Degree
2.0%
10.0%
Post-secondary Vocational
4.0%
9.3%
Job related work experience
5.4%
9.2%
6.2%
4.4%
Medium-term On The Job training
22.4%
15.4%
Short-term On The Job training
46.3%
15.3%
Long-term On The Job training
Source: Help Wanted On Line listings for Texas and Texas Workforce Commission
listings for Work In Texas database
47%
HWOL 2011
Postings
84%
2011 WIT Job
Applicants
Education Requirement
7.8%
Highest Earning College Programs 2010 Summary
Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX)
Engineering
Health Professions & Related Clinical Sciences
Engineering Technologies/Technicians
Computer & Information Sciences
Business, Management & Marketing
Mathematics and Statistics
Multi/Interdisciplinary Studies
Physical Sciences
Liberal Arts & Sciences/Humanities
Teacher Education & Development /Special Ed
Agriculture & Agriculture Operations
Unknown or Undeclared
Public Administration & Social Service
Security & Protective Services
Social Sciences
Grads Earnings
4,554
$51,131
7,644
$50,813
951
$46,075
1,356
$44,408
21,153
$36,261
914
$33,296
10,082
$31,888
1,103
$30,828
2,359
$30,074
1,505
$29,594
1,804
$28,195
2,247
$27,812
1,174
$27,456
2,783
$27,039
6,227
$26,795
Highest Earning College Programs 2010 Detail View
Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX)
Petroleum Engineering
Quality Control/Safety Technology
Chemical Engineering
Ocean Engineering
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration
Electrical & Electronic Engineering
Mechanical Engineering
Construction Engineering
Health Diagnostic & Treatment Professions
Engineering Science
Computer Systems Networking/Telecomm
Computer Engineering, General
Engineering, General
Computer Systems Analysis
Information Technology Admin & Mgmt
Grads Earnings
271
$84,961
30
$61,113
405
$60,791
71
$59,411
4,745
$59,359
111
$55,332
1,224
$53,307
54
$50,594
375
$49,202
29
$48,601
26
$48,411
189
$47,815
41
$47,751
114
$47,747
64
$47,524
Lowest Earning College Programs 2010 Detail View
Bachelor’s Degree Graduate Major (TX)
Pastoral Counseling & Specialized Ministries
Germanic Languages & Literature
Film/Video and Photographic Arts
Dramatic/Theatre Arts & Stagecraft
Classical Languages, Literatures & Linguistics
English Composition
Religious Education
Ecology, Evolution and Population Biology
Anthropology
Radio, Television & Digital Communication
Health/Medical Preparatory Programs
Parks & Recreation Facilities Management
Bible/Biblical Studies
Zoology/Animal Biology
Fine and Studio Art
Grads Earnings
60
$15,205
46
$17,444
142
$17,619
529
$18,304
35
$18,342
44
$19,903
56
$20,122
87
$20,156
460
$20,310
983
$20,413
93
$20,547
139
$20,558
55
$20,860
102
$21,372
1,347
$21,464
Highest Earning Associate’s Degree Programs 2010
Associate’s Degree Graduate Major (TX)
Grads Earnings
Fire Protection
157
$68,275
Nuclear Radiologic Technology
33
$63,908
Electrical & Power Transmission Installers
41
$55,835
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration
5,203
$53,648
Mining and Petroleum Technology
24
$50,241
Physical Science Technology
457
$47,881
Electromechanical /Instrumentation Technology
397
$46,151
Quality Control & Safety Technology
133
$44,685
Chemistry
56
$44,599
Industrial Production Technology
97
$44,138
Construction Engineering Technology
45
$41,789
Mechanical Engineering Related Technology
29
$41,622
Precision Metal Working
138
$39,817
Electrical/Electronics Maintenance Technology
47
$37,500
Dental Support Services & Allied Professions
352
$37,371
Structural Mismatch: 2010 Graduates Grads Earnings
Multi-/Interdisciplinary Studies, Other
Business Administration, Mgmt & Operations
Psychology, General
Registered Nursing, Nursing Administration
Biology, General
Health and Physical Education/Fitness
Finance & Financial Mgmt Services
Accounting & Related Services
Marketing
Criminal Justice and Corrections
English Language and Literature, General
Liberal Arts, General Studies & Humanities
History, General
Political Science & Government
Public Relations & Advertising
9,536
6,056
5,169
4,745
4,517
3,457
3,269
3,083
2,884
2,783
2,453
2,359
2,245
2,208
1,772
$32,132
$40,473
$22,613
$59,359
$21,737
$23,454
$37,160
$33,583
$31,693
$27,039
$23,124
$30,074
$24,016
$25,037
$27,579
Trends in U.S. Bachelor’s Degrees Awarded
Emerging Markets in a Global Economy:
Percent of 2009 Revenue Outside U.S.
YUM Brands 53.0%
Du Pont 62.4%
IBM 58.1%
Boeing 42.2%
Intel 80.0%
Coca Cola 73.5%
Corning 75.6%
Emerson Electric 56.8%
Accenture 56.4%
Microsoft 43.4%
Hewlett-Packard 63.9%
Wal-Mart 36.2%
JNJ 50.2%
Caterpillar 61.8%
Colgate 80.0%
ExxonMobil 81.8%
Campbell Soup 26.1%
Kellogg 26.8%
3M Corporation 63.2%
UPS 26.3%
Percent of Multinational Corporation Jobs
Employed by U.S. Parent Company
76.0%
74.0%
72.0%
70.0%
73.5%
72.9%
72.3%
71.4%
72.5%
71.1%
70.8%
69.3%
68.0%
67.8%
66.0%
64.0%
62.0%
60.0%
58.0%
66.9%
64.7%
U.S. jobs as a percent of all MNC jobs
64.0%
Short-term Forecasted Job Growth by Region
LWDA
2010
2011
2012
AVG
2009-12
Lower Rio Grande/Brownsville
Travis County/Austin
South Texas/McAllen
Alamo/San Antonio
Rural Capital/Round Rock
Permian /Midland-Odessa
Central Texas/ Killeen-Temple
Upper Rio Grande/ El Paso
Brazos Valley/ Bryan
Heart of Texas/ Waco
North Central Texas/Plano
East Texas / Tyler
2.5
2.1
2.0
1.8
1.9
1.5
1.4
1.9
1.1
1.7
0.7
1.3
2.8
2.5
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.0
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.3
1.6
1.2
2.8
2.7
2.2
2.4
2.2
2.1
1.9
1.6
1.7
1.3
1.6
1.3
2.7%
2.4%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
1.9%
1.7%
1.7%
1.5%
1.4%
1.3%
1.3%
Employer Hiring Progression:
Shifting Business Practices
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Work existing full-time workers more hours
Move part-timers to full-time workers
Employ temporary or leased workers
Use contract workers for fixed periods
Reconsider work/hiring location based on potential
growth markets & cost structure
Outsource all non-core business functions
Consider strategic partnerships to increase sales,
limit labor liability
Take advantage of H1B and L1 visas
Add full-time domestic employees (FTE)
Percent Job Losses in Recessions 1990-2007
Optimistic
Baseline
Pessimistic
Regional employers say they want…
1. Good communications skills: Can you…..

Explain what you’re doing (to co-worker or customer)?


Explain what you need (from a co-worker or customer)?
Ability to listen to instructions?
2. Critical thinking skills (if given a sequence of events, can you
determine what will probably happen next)
3. Technical knowledge (degrees needed for half of all job
openings)
4. Can-do attitude / pleasant attitude (workers who are
“engaged” in their work)
5. Can you work with people who are of a different age,
race, gender and education level than you?
Soft Skills
Will
Skills
Distill
Soft Skills
Skills
Strong academics
High School diploma
Post secondary schooling
Appropriate technical skills
Will
Distill
Soft Skills
Workplace Basics!
Communication skills
Getting along with others
Critical thinking
Skills
Will
Distill
Soft Skills
Will
Distill
Skills
On the Job Training
Informal learning
Continuing education
Career Lattice
Will
Soft Skills
Willing to take a job:
At lower level
For a lesser wage
In a different region
Skills
Distill
Soft Skills
Workplace Basics!
Communication skills
Getting along with others
Critical thinking
Will
Willing to take a job:
At lower level
For a lesser wage
In a different region
Skills
Distill
Strong academics
High School diploma
Post secondary schooling
Appropriate technical skills
On the Job Training
Informal learning
Continuing education
Career Lattice
Welcome to Reality Check 2011!
There is much more story to
tell, but this version is over
Thank you!
[email protected]