Transcript The 14-19 Agenda - Marchmont Observatory

The 14-19 Agenda
Geoff Hayward
Associate Director of SKOPE
Nuffield 14-19 Review
Learning pays

Old news
• the more education you have the more you get
paid
• the less likely you are to be unemployed, the
healthier you will be
• you will have better developed social values
that underpin active citizenship

It is therefore socially and economically
desirable to support continuing
participation and qualification post-16
Some caveats

Rates of return analyses indicate
• Having a degree really pays
• Having A levels provides a good rate of
return
• Level 3 Vocational Qualifications provide
a reasonable return
• GCSEs a lower but still significant return
• Level 2 Vocational Qualifications only
provide a return for some (men in
traditional craft sectors)
We do poorly internationally
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One of the lowest participation rates
amongst OECD countries
Productivity per worker is higher in OECD
countries with more highly skilled work
forces
Our qualification rates are now matching
or even surpassing those of Germany and
France
But we may still have a shortage of
vocational skills at Level 3 – technicians
and associate professionals
Overall Participation 16-18

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Participation increased sharply
between 1986 and 1993 and then
stabilised
By the end of 2003 participation
rates were
• 87%
• 80%
• 60%
• 75%
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of
of
of
of
16 year-olds
17 year-olds
18 year-olds
16-18 year-olds
Commonest destination for those not
staying on is the labour market
Participation in different routes

The vast majority participate via full-time
education and training. In 2003
• 72% of 16 year-olds
• 60% of 17 year-olds
• 37% of 18 year olds

The work-based route has declined in
popularity since the mid 1980s but the
rate of decline is now slowing. In 2003
• 10% of 16 year-olds
• 14% of 17 year-olds
• 16% of 18 year-olds
Academic v Vocational Routes
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Participation in both academic and vocational
full-time routes has increased
At Level 3 75% of learners are taking GCE
A/AS levels the majority in school sixth forms
At Level 2 85% are taking vocational courses
the majority in FE colleges
The change in participation is driven by
increasing GCSE attainment at 16 and an
apparent economic rationality, but differs by
gender, ethnic group, socio-economic
background and geographic region
Challenges
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Retention and achievement rates in
vocational routes are improving but
remain below GCE A level
The progression rate in vocational routes
is low – less than 30% who complete
Level 1/2 progress to Level 3.
Early progression into the Labour Market
for too many 16 and 17 year olds
Drop out into the NEET group – require
special measures and a very
heterogeneous group.
Leaving early
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More likely to do so if you are white, less well
qualified (but not unqualified), from poorer
backgrounds but 65% live in homes that are
owned by parents or carers.
Main destination is a low skill, low wage job –
labelled as jobs without training (JWT)
Males are significantly more likely to be in
full-time employment than females
70% say that their jobs are permanent
A significant proportion (46%) receive onthe-job training; a smaller proportion (about
12%) off-the-job training
Generally this training does not lead to
qualifications
Type of employment
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SOC gives the top five jobs as:
•
•
•
•
•
Sales Assistants
Clerks, not otherwise specified
Cleaners and domestics
Counter hands and catering assistants
Waiters and waitresses
•
•
•
•
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Wholesale, retail, repair of motor vehicles
Manufacturing
Hotels and Restaurants
Construction
Real estate, renting and business activities
SIC gives top five areas as
Work and rewards
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Median working week is 39 hours
Median wage £100-£125 per week
Those in JWT seem to earn
significantly more than those on
apprenticeship programmes
Is this a bad news story?
Youth unemployment rate in the UK
is at the lower end for the OECD
countries
Encouraging staying on
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Politically difficult – over 100 pieces of
policy in England and Wales in the lat 15
years; participation rate has not increased
in the last decade.
Generally reform is focused on changing
the qualification system
Real issues are motivational and cognitive
– why do some young people not want to
try and find it difficult to learn in school?
14-19 and the regional skills
agenda
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Some young people don’t see the need to
try
• there is perceived to be an adequate supply of
unskilled jobs to meet the imagined future
needs of the young people who leave.
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Cultural and family resources do not
promote staying on
There is a lack of appropriate progression
opportunities
How might the regional agenda focus on
meeting the learning needs of these young
people?
14-19 and the regional skills
agenda
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In European countries social partners –
schools/colleges, employers, trade unions
- are more closely engaged with each
other at a regional level enabling a closer
link between vocational qualifications and
labour markets. In part this is
underpinned by a more regulated labour
market and a shared culture of rights and
responsibilities.
How might this be achieved in a less
regulated UK labour market?