Transcript WECC 10-Year Plan general presentation

Bradley Nickell
Director of Transmission Planning
Connecting Policy and Wind Energy Investment
Iowa State University WESEP-REU
June 12, 2012
1
2
About WECC
WECC’s mission is to promote and foster a
reliable and efficient bulk electric system
3
Non-Planning Functions
• Compliance Monitoring
and Enforcement
• Standards Development
• Reliability Coordination
• Market-Operations
interface
• Operator training
• WREGIS
Planning Functions
• Loads and Resources
Assessments
• Reliability studies
• Transmission Expansion
Planning
Regional Transmission Expansion Planning
Where are we today?
Regional Transmission Expansion Planning (RTEP)
Understanding Impacts of decisions, not
making determinations on what should be done
• Completed WECC’s first 10-Year Regional
Transmission Plan
• In the 2nd year of the biennial planning cycle
• Preparing for the creation of Interconnection-wide
transmission plans in 2013
4
5
The Breeze Behind Wind Energy
How Policy Impacts Investment Decisions
•
•
•
•
6
What’s driving the policy?
Cost and Risk
About Policies
Parting thoughts – The long KISS
What Drives Energy Policy?
• Environmental concerns
o Emissions
o Land use
• Job creation
o Manufacturing and construction
• Public sentiment
• Money
7
Cost and Risk
Monetizing the Future Today
• Cost – Pricing the known
o Equipment, financing
• Risk – Pricing the unknown
o Future cashflows, O&M, competition
o Time - changes in costs/policies between
investment decision and on-line dates
• Policy impacts both
o Equipment demand
o Future tax treatment
“Cost is cheap, Risk is expensive”
8
Renewable Energy Policies
• Create markets
o Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
• Reduce costs
o Credits/loans/rebates
• Increase costs for alternatives
o Emission limitations/costs
• Impact risk (real and perceived)
9
Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS)
Creating the Market
• Requires renewable energy procurement
o Vary in complexity
o Driven by multiple goals
o Directed at some/all retail load-serving entities
• Attributes
o Cost caps/off-ramps
o Technology/ownership set-asides
o Geography restrictions/incentives
10
RPS Policies
www.dsireusa.org / May 2012
WA: 15% x 2020*
MN: 25% x 2025
MT: 15% x 2015
(Xcel: 30% x 2020)
SD: 10% x 2015 WI: Varies by utility;
~10% x 2015 statewide
NV: 25% x 2025* CO: 30% by 2020 (IOUs)
IA: 105 MW
10% by 2020 (co-ops & large munis)*
CA: 33% x 2020
UT: 20% by 2025*
KS: 20% x 2020
RI: 16% x 2020
NY: 29% x 2015
CT: 27% x 2020
OH: 25% x 2025†
IL: 25% x 2025
IN: 10% x 2025†
PA: ~18% x 2021†
WV: 25% x 2025*†
VA: 15% x 2025*
NJ: 20.38% RE x 2021
+ 5,316 GWh solar x 2026
MO: 15% x 2021
AZ: 15% x 2025
OK: 15% x 2015
NM: 20% x 2020 (IOUs)
NH: 23.8% x 2025
New RE: 15% x 2020
(+1% annually thereafter)
x 2015*
5% - 10% x 2025 (smaller utilities)
ME: 30% x 2000
New RE: 10% x 2017
MA: 22.1% x 2020
MI: 10% & 1,100 MW
ND: 10% x 2015
OR: 25% x 2025 (large utilities)*
VT: (1) RE meets any increase
in retail sales x 2012;
(2) 20% RE & CHP x 2017
MD: 20% x 2022
NC: 12.5% x 2021
(IOUs)
10% x 2018 (co-ops & munis)
10% x 2020 (co-ops)
TX: 5,880 MW x 2015
DE: 25% x 2026*
DC
DC: 20% x 2020
PR: 20% x 2035
HI: 40% x 2030
29 states +
Renewable portfolio standard
Renewable portfolio goal
Solar water heating eligible
Minimum solar or customer-sited requirement
*†
Extra credit for solar or customer-sited renewables
Includes non-renewable alternative resources
DC and PR have
an RPS
(8 states have goals)
Financial Incentives
Reducing the Cost
• Tax Credits
o Federal – PTC/ITC
o State
• Loans
o Guarantees
o Reduced rates
• Direct payments
o Grants
o Rebates
12
Tax Credits for Renewables
www.dsireusa.org / March 2012
DC
Personal tax credit(s) only
Corporate tax credit(s) only
Personal + corporate tax credit(s)
Notes: This map does not include corporate or personal tax deductions or
exemptions; or tax incentives for geothermal heat pumps.
Puerto Rico
24 states
offer tax
credits for
renewables
2013 10- and 20-year Transmission Plans
Connecting the Dots
How might the Western Interconnection need to change to accommodate
changes in the supply and demand for electric energy?
• 10-year – understanding
impacts of near-term
decisions (bottoms-up)
• 20-year – understanding
drivers of potential energy
futures (top-down)
• The Plans tell the story of
how they are connected
14
2032
2022
2012
Parting Thoughts
The Long KISS
• Long-term policies reduce risk
o Stabilize demand
o Assure incentives
• Simple policies reduce cost
o Allow for market-based, least-cost solutions
o Foster creativity
15
Questions
Bradley Nickell
Director of Transmission Planning
Western Electricity Coordinating Council
155 North 400 West
Salt Lake City, Utah 84103
801.819.7604
[email protected]
All information on the WECC 10-Year
Regional Transmission Plan may be found
at http://www.wecc.biz/10yrPlan.
16