Transcript World Grain Situation - Texas A&M University

World Grain Situation
Trends, Conditions and
Outlook
Parr Rosson
Professor & Director
Center for North American Studies
Department of Agricultural Economics
Texas A&M University
C
NAS
Overview
World Supply/Demand Balance
Major Producers & Consumers
Market Conditions Affecting the Major
Grain Traders
Prices
World Macroeconomic Conditions
Indicator
2003
2004
2005
2006
World
2.4
3.8
3.0
3.1
Asia/NIC/Emerging *
6.4
7.4
6.6
6.4
Latin America
1.3
5.8
4.3
4.4
Eurozone
0.5
1.9
1.3
1.8
United States
3.0
4.4
3.6
3.0
Canada
2.0
2.8
2.6
3.0
United Kingdom
2.2
3.1
2.5
2.3
Japan
1.4
2.6
1.0
2.0
China
9.1
9.5
9.0
8.3
India
7.3
7.1
7.2
6.5
Real Growth (% CH)
Countries
World Wheat Supply and Demand
700
MMT

600
Million HA/Trade MMT






250
200
500
150
400
300
100
200
50
100
0
0
1980
1985
Area Harvested
1990
Production
1995
World Trade
Source: Grain: World Markets and Trade, FAS/USDA
2000
2005
Consumption
World Rice Supply and Demand
700
600
MMT
Million HA/Trade MMT
           








500
180
160
140
120
400
100
300
80
60
200
40
100
20
0
0
1980
1985
Area Harvested
1990
Production
1995
World Trade
Source: Grain: World Markets and Trade, FAS/USDA
2000
2005
Consumption
World Corn Supply and Demand
800
MMT

600
Million HA/Trade MMT






    
160
  140
120
100
400
80
60
200
40
20
0
0
1980
1985
Area Harvested
1990
Production
1995
World Trade
Source: Grain: World Markets and Trade, FAS/USDA
2000
2005
Consumption
World Barley Supply and Demand
200
150
MMT


Million HA/Trade MMT




100
80



100



60
40
50
20
0
0
1980
1985
Area Harvested
1990
Production
1995
World Trade
Source: Grain: World Markets and Trade, FAS/USDA
2000
2005
Consumption
Wheat Production & Consumption
Average: 2001 - 2005
500.0
400.0
MMT
379.6
357.5
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
Production
United States
Consumption
China
India
Source: Grain: World Markets and Trade, FAS/USDA
Russia
EU-25
Rice Production & Consumption
Average: 2001 - 2005
350.0
300.0
MMT
299.2
286.9
250.0
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
Production
China
India
Consumption
Indonesia
Source: Grain: World Markets and Trade, FAS/USDA
Vietnam
Bangladesh
Corn Production & Consumption
Average: 2001 - 2005
600.0
500.0
MMT
484.6
449.7
400.0
300.0
200.0
100.0
0.0
Production
United States
Consumption
China
Mexico
Source: Grain: World Markets and Trade, FAS/USDA
Brazil
EU-25
World Wheat Trade
Average: 2001 - 2005
Imports
Exports
108.7 MMT
108.7 MMT
EU-25
13.5%
Argentina
8.8%
United States
25.3%
14.7
Other
69.8%
27.5
76.2
9.6
EU-25
8.5%
14.7
Australia
13.5%
14.2
Canada
13.0%
9.3
6.1
7.1
28.2
Other
25.9%
5.7 4.7
Brazil
5.6%
Egypt
6.5%Japan
Algeria
5.2%
4.3%
Source: Grain: World Markets and Trade, FAS/USDA
Iraq Wheat Supply and Demand
1,000 MT
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
Area
Harvested
(1000 HA)
1220
1800
1800
1800
1800
Production
650
1800
2000
2200
2200
Imports
2801
1579
1925
2800
3300
Beginning
Stocks
2200
2000
1500
300
0
Supply
Feed
Consumption
Non-Feed
Consumption
Exports
5651
5425
5300
5500
0
200
750
800
700
3651
3679
3975
4500
4500
0
0
400
0
0
Demand
Ending Stocks
5379
3652
2000
3879
1500
5125
300
Source: P roduction, Supply and Demand, www.fas.usda.gov/psd/
5300
0
5200
300
Former Soviet Union Wheat Situation
(Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine)
Million Metric Tons
120
96.9
100.3
Stocks
Production
100
87
80
59.7
60
40
20
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
Former Soviet Union Wheat Exports
(Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine)
Million Metric Tons
30
25.7
25
18.7
20
14.8
15
7.8
10
5
0
2002
2003
2004
2005 F
Wheat Market Overview
Former Soviet Union Re-emerging As
Wheat Exporter
Improved Rail & Port Infrastructure in
Kazakhstan Stimulate Exports
Argentine Exports Expected to Decline
Due to Short Crop from Dry Weather
China’s Imports Drop Due to Excellent
Crop
U.S. Weekly Wheat Export Prices
(Gulf Ports)
$/Metric Ton
$180
No. 2 SRW
$160
$152 $150
$142
$140
$153
$138
$148
$150
$138
$140
$133
$148
$149
No. 1 HRW
$151
$149 $151
$138
$132
$132
7/1
7/8
$130 $130
$120
$100
$80
5/27
6/3
6/10
6/17
6/24
7/15
7/22
7/29
World Rice Trade
Average: 2001 - 2005
Exports
Imports
27.1 MMT
27.1 MMT
Vietnam
14.4%
Pakistan
7.0%
1.9
India
16.7%
3.9
4.5
Indonesia
7.0%
Nigeria
5.9%
8.3
Thailand
30.7%
Philippines
5.2%
5
1.9
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.1
19.9
3.4
Other
18.5%
Saudi Arabia
4.4% EU-25
4.1%
United States
12.6%
Source: Grain: World Markets and Trade, FAS/USDA
Iraq, 1 MMT
Other
73.4%
Iraq Rice Supply and Demand
1,000 MT
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
Area Harvested
(1000 HA)
3
12
28
50
50
Production
26
26
50
101
101
Imports
1178
672
889
1000
1200
Beginning
Stocks
-
-
-
-
-
Supply
1645
1239
1022
1067
1317
Consumption
1095
1139
1022
1017
1067
Exports
0
0
0
0
0
Demand
Ending Stocks
1095
550
1139
100
1022
0
Source: P roduction, Supply and Demand, www.fas.usda.gov/psd/
1017
50
1067
250
Rice Market Overview
Thailand is the World’s Leading Exporter
More Competition from Vietnam & India
Growing in Importance
Indonesia a Major Importer
Growing Demand in Cuba, Nigeria & Saudi
Arabia
China Currency Strengthening Likely to
Increase Asian Rice Prices
World Rice Prices
$500
$/Metric Ton
Thai, FOB Bangkok
U.S., FAS Gulf Ports
FOB, Vietnam
$400
$300
$200
$100
8/2005
1/2005
8/2004
1/2004
8/2003
2002
2001
2000
$0
Source: Producers Rice Mill (producersrice.com)
World Corn Trade
Average: 2001 - 2005
Imports
Exports
76.7 MMT
76.7 MMT
EU-25 Brazil
1.8% 4.7%
Argentina
14.8%
1.43.6
China
12.2%
Taiwan
6.1%
9.4
11.4
Other
6.9%
Japan
21.8%
S. Korea
11.2%
Mexico
6.9%
5.3
45.8
16.7
8.6
4.7
4.6
5.3
36.8
United States
59.6%
Source: Grain: World Markets and Trade, FAS/USDA
Other
48.0%
Egypt
6.0%
Iraq Corn Supply and Demand
1,000 MT
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
Area Harvested
(1000 HA)
50
50
50
50
50
Production
50
60
60
60
60
Imports
0
0
35
50
50
Beginning
Stocks
0
0
0
0
0
Supply
50
60
95
110
110
Consumption
50
60
95
110
110
Exports
0
0
0
0
0
Demand
Ending Stocks
50
0
60
0
95
0
Source: P roduction, Supply and Demand, www.fas.usda.gov/psd/
110
0
110
0
Corn Market Overview
Recovering Demand in Latin America
Brazil, Argentina, Colombia, Peru, El Salvador
& Ecuador Experience Strong Demand Growth
Consumption Has Grown 3.4%/Year for 5
Years
Increased Animal Feeding Main Reason for
Greater Demand
Less Export Competition in Near Term
U.S. Monthly Corn Prices
(No. 2 Yellow, Gulf Ports)
$160
$140
$120
$100
$/Metric Ton
$129$131$128
$120
$120
$117
$110$112
$110
$107
$103
$100
$99
$97
$95$95 $93 $95
$95 $93
$95
$93
$80
$60
Sep
Dec
2003
Mar
Jun
Sep
2004
Dec
Mar
Jun
2005
Iraq Barley Supply and Demand
1,000 MT
2001-2002
2002-2003
2003-2004
2004-2005
2005-2006
Area Harvested
(1000 HA)
1200
1300
1300
1300
1300
Production
550
1000
1150
1250
1250
Imports
Beginning
Stocks
Supply
Feed
Consumption
0
0
0
0
0
37
17
82
132
82
587
1017
1232
1382
1332
100
350
400
600
600
200
250
300
300
300
Exports
Demand
270
335
1017
400
1232
400
1382
300
1332
Ending Stocks
17
82
132
82
132
Non-Feed
Consumption
587
Source: P roduction, Supply and Demand, www.fas.usda.gov/psd/
Summary
World Grain Markets are Characterized as
Highly Dynamic
Wide Swings in Price
Uncertainty About Weather & Other Forces
Impacts of Exchange Rates
Influenced by Policy and Trade Restrictions
Except for Rice, World Supply/Demand for
Major Grains In Balanced
Tight S/D Balance Can Lead to Large Price
Increases & Higher Food Costs for Consumers