Transcript Slide 1

The Changing Face of Forestry:
The U.S. Forest Service Perspective
Ken Arney
U.S. Forest Service
Table of Contents
• National Forest News
• Emerging Forest Issues in the South
• Challenges for Forestry
National Forest News
Secure Rural Schools Proposal
• President’s 2007 budget includes proposal to
reauthorize Rural Schools and Community SelfDetermination Act for 5 years
• Funding would be from sale of certain NF lands
• Currently in Congress – Considerable opposition
from both parties
National Forest News
Roadless Rule Petitions
• USDA Sec. Approved petitions from VA,
NC and SC on June 21 to develop statespecific roadless area rules (first in nation)
• FS will work with states to develop rules –
public input will be solicited
• States have until Nov. 13, 2006 to file
petitions, or forest plans prevail
• Georgia not expected to file petition.
• About 12 expected nationwide
Emerging Forestry Issues
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Ownership Change
Land Use Change
Changing Markets – Timber and Other
Forest Health Concerns
Ownership Change
David N. Wear
And
John G. Greis
Forest area and ownership
Forest Area by Ownership
Group - South
180
Million acres
1953
1963
1982
1989
1999
120
60
0
National forest Other public
Forest
industry
Ownership class
Source: SFRA
Nonindustrial
private
The Changing Landscape of
Private Timberland Ownership
Mike Clutter
Brooks Mendell
David Newman
June 13, 2005
Industry Ownership Changes
By FIA Units
Industry Land Divestiture
Summarized
• More than 20 million acres in South since
1996
• Driven by several forces
• Widespread but focused in parts of the
South
• Raises several questions and concerns
Questions Include:
– Will this trend increase / accelerate
fragmentation across forested landscapes?
– Will management objectives and
silvicultural practices change dramatically?
– How will the changes impact fire
suppression capabilities?
– Will new owners practice good forest
stewardship?
Other Private Forest Land Ownership
National Statistics
1953 - 2003
400
12
300
8
200
6
4
100
2
0
1950
0
1960
1970
1980
Year
1990
2000
2010
Owners (MM)
Area (MM acres)
10
Southern Forest Owners:
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5 million
Increasingly absentee
29% white collar; 20% retirees
6% farmers (down from 67% 50 yrs ago)
Diverse management objectives
Mostly do not seek management advice
Small % control more than 1/3 of all
timberland
Source: SFRA
Why do they own forestland?
Home/farm
Aesthetics
Family legacy
Recreation
Land investment
Timber
Firewood
0
10
20
30
40
50
Percent of Family Forestland
Source: N.W.O. Survey
60
70
Land Use Change
Population change (2000-2020)
Percent
-20.1 - 0
0 - 12.7
12.7 - 27.3
27.3 - 49.7
49.7 - 114.9
2020 Forecast ….
Southern Residents Will Be:
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Increased by 24 million
More urban
Older
More Hispanic and African-American
Just more than 50% White
Source: So. WUI Assessment
Urbanization – Why Care?
“Among the forces of change,
urbanization will have the most
direct, immediate and permanent
effects on the extent, condition and
health of forests” SFRA, 2002
Urbanization Outcomes
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Smaller parcel sizes
More difficult management (e.g. smoke)
More recreational pressure
Conversion to non-forest
Economic disincentives to own and manage
More biocentric ownerships and citizenry
More public resistance to harvests
More local regulations and ordinances (346 in
2000 vs. 141 in 1992 in South)
Source: SFRA; So. WUI Assessment
Range of Forecast Changes by
State
Wear, 2006 (in Draft)
Potential forest loss
1500
1000
500
-500
Virginia
Texas
Mississippi
North
Carolina
Oklahoma
South
Carolina
Tennessee
-3500
-4000
Louisiana
-3000
Kentucky
-2500
Georgia
-2000
Florida
-1500
Arkansas
-1000
Alabama
1000 acres
0
Forecast Total Regional Forest
Change (Wear, 2006 in Draft)
• No net loss if:
– High timber prices
– Lowered population growth
– Low ag prices
• Maximum loss of 27 million acres if:
– Low timber prices
– High Population growth
– High ag prices
Changing Markets
Rapid Assessment of Market
Change in the South
Douglas Carter and Dave Wear
Assoc. Prof., SFRC, Univ of FL
and
Project Leader, Economics Work Unit,
USFS SRS
What Has Happened?
--Harvests-Southern US Timber Harvests
3500.00
3000.00
2500.00
2000.00
1500.00
1000.00
500.00
S. Sawtimber
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97
20
19
93
89
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85
S. pulpwood
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81
19
77
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73
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69
65
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61
57
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53
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mmcf
• Steady growth ’62-’98
• Declining harvests
’98-’01
• Softwood and
hardwood pulpwood
harvests declined 11%
and 21% from ’98-’01
• Softwood sawtimber
harvests were more
stable
H. pulpwood
What Has Happened?
--Prices-Southern US Stumpage Prices
3.5
3
2.5
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1.5
1
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H Saw
S Saw
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01
20
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89
H Pulp
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87
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81
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77
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index (1977=1)
• Biggest declines were in
softwood pulpwood since
‘98.
• Softwood sawtimber not
impacted as severely.
• Hardwood pulpwood
more volatile but
regained strength since
2000.
• Hardwood sawtimber
stable or increasing.
S Pulp
Pulpmills and Chipmills in the
South
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Pulpmills_chipmills_s
pulp & chip distance
1 - 50
51 - 100
101 - 250
251 - 500
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1000 Miles
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Number of Southern Pulp Mills
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1991
1993
1995
US Forest Service and Forest Resources Assn.
1997
1999
2001
2003
Sawmills in the South
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Sawmills_south.s
sawmill distance
1 - 50
51 - 100
101 - 150
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W
500
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500
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1000 Miles
S
Emerging Markets???
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Carbon
Water
Biomass
Viewscapes
Wildlife Viewing/Habitat
Other Ecosystem Services
Conclusions: Markets
• Markets are NOT going away, but adjusting
after rapid growth in the 1990’s
• Domestic demand has declined for pulpwood
– 16% reduction in southern pulping capacity since
1997 (indicates a sustained decline in demand)
• Some expanding demand for pulpwood per
OSB expansion
• Solidwood demand appears stable
• Ecosystem services may offer promise
Significant Forest Health Management
Program Activities in Georgia
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SPB prevention program
Hemlock Woolly Adelgid control
Cogongrass eradication along FL border
Redbay mortality in coastal areas
Sudden oak death surveys
In Conclusion………
• The South’s population is growing rapidly
• Southern forests are changing ownership, being
urbanized, and facing numerous health issues
• National Forests will play a key but changing
role in southern forestry
• USFS State and Private Forestry will continue to
lead on issues relevant to non-federal forest
lands.
• Cooperation among all owners and managers
will be necessary if southern forests are to
remain viable and healthy
For More Information…..
• Email: [email protected]
• SFRA: www.srs.fs.fed.us/sustain
• Changing Industry Ownership:
www.southernforests.org
• Market Change: www.southernforests.org