Transcript Document
Applied Market Intelligence
Mobile Displays - Market and Technology Trends
Vinita Jakhanwal
Principal Analyst
Overview
Displays are a significant part of the device BOM
Average display costs 15% to 20% of BOM
If we add touch cost, BOM becomes larger
A mix of display technologies continue to be used
Specific display requirements determine display technology
Market segment, regions, OS etc.
Specially important when integration with touch is involved
Supplier landscape is changing
Shift in regional presence – capacity, price, customers
Emerging dominance of the ODM
Touch is crucial for next phase of revenue growth
Many different approaches
Many nodes in supply chain
Consolidation will be the trend
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2,500,000
25%
2,000,000
15%
1,500,000
5%
1,000,000
-5%
500,000
Q-O-Q Growth %
Thousands of Units
Small/Medium TFT LCD Shipment
-15%
0
-25%
2008
2009
2010
Units
2011
2012
2013
% grow th
Large Market for small displays
Growing Market for consumer devices
Investment in larger generation fab has freed capacity for SMD displays
Price declines
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Mobile Handset Display Market
Thousands of Units
2,000,000
1,500,000
PMOLED
AMOLED
MSTN
1,000,000
CSTN
LTPS
500,000
A-si
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Mobile Display industry does ok in 2009
Seasonality of 1Q is not so pronounced in 2010
Smartphone market continues to pull demand
a-Si TFT LCD will be the dominant display technology
Other technologies will coexist to support different regions, segments
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AMOLED Update
120,000
Thousands of Units
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
SMDs special support to Samsung Electronics – size, touch tech
SMD plans to add new larger gen fab likely to be Gen 5.5
Gen 8 line decision likely by 2012
AMOLED prices around 1.2x equivalent LTPS panel for wVGA
AUO and TPO likely to start production in 2011. TPO may gain because of relationship
with HTC
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Mobile Handset Display Market by Size
400,000
Thousands of Units
350,000
300,000
>=4.0-in
250,000
3.x-in
200,000
2.x-in
150,000
1.x-in
100,000
50,000
0
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Mainstream display size is still 2.x-inches
Smartphones are using larger than 3-inch displays
Smartphones still a limited portion of the total handset market
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Smartphone Market
1,800
Thousands of Units
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Smart Phones
Total handsets
800
600
400
200
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Smartphone market is growing rapidly at a CAGR of 22%
Still a small portion of the total handset market
Smartphones are mainly using wQVGA, wVGA, hVGA and VGA pixel formats
Nexus 800x480, Motorola Droid 854x480
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Small/Medium TFT LCD Shipment – Taiwan
250,000
Thousands of Units
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
460
1,942
9,425
8,568
Wintek
8,603
11,869
16,362
14,130
TPO
22,351
23,297
20,317
23,364
Innolux
1,250
6,735
24,000
25,437
CPT
12,740
30,926
33,780
47,292
CMO
18,588
28,512
37,595
35,805
AU Optronics
28,325
45,413
46,500
40,435
GiantPlus
1Q09
Taiwan accounted for 48% of total mobile display TFT LCD panel shipment in 2009
Most of the panel shipments are made to Chinese gray/clone market segment
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Average Value of Displays purchased Handset OEM, 3Q09
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Ebook Market
Thousands of Units
25,000
20,000
15,000
Ebooks
10,000
5,000
0
2008
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2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
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TFT LCD area Supply
1000
1000
900
900
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
Gen. 1
Gen. 2
Gen. 3
Gen. 4
0
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
Gen. 5
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
C hina
Japanese losing capacity
Closing older generation fabs
Mergers and acquisitions
TMD wants to convert Singapore fab for SMD production
Inability to raise investment to do so
Sold to AUO
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TFT LCD area Supply – Gen 4 Area capacity
Gen 4 Area capacity by Region
Japan Capacity by Fab Gen
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
Gen. 1
Gen. 2
Gen. 3
Gen. 4
3Q09
4Q09
0%
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
Japan
4Q08
Korea
1Q09
Taiwan
2Q09
3Q09
C hina
2 Gen 1 fabs in operation, 13 Gen 2 fabs (5 in use), 9 Gen 3 (6 in use), 6 Gen 4
Japan - 50% of area capacity comes from smaller than Gen 4 fabs
Gen 4 percentage is increasing because older gen fabs are being closed
Total area capacity is decreasing
Japanese share in Gen 4 fab area capacity is decreasing as Taiwan and China expand
capacity for SMD
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Mobile Touch
Main Touch technologies for Mobile
Resistive
Capacitive
In-cell/ On-cell touch
Other – Haptics, IR, Active digitizer
Touch Technology Issues
Within LCD there are differences in LCD drive technologies
TN LCD, VA LCD, IPS LCD, AFFS LCD
LCD vs AMOLED
Projective capacitive sensitivity to signal noise for LCDs
–
It has to be very finely tuned to eliminate the noise and fine tune the signal to noise ratio. While this is
achievable it makes it more difficult when you want to add something such as a digitizer to the device
components. Each additional source of signal noise has to be taken into account and worked around.
AMOLED overcomes this issue as there is no LC material that needs to align for the drive
AMOLED on-cell touch is faster to the market than LCD on-cell
–
–
AMOLED innovatively uses the encapsulation glass as the touch glass surface
No color filter layer improvers transmittance
Taiwan Suppliers are leaders for mobile touch
Capacitive suppliers using old LCD fabs to make ITO coated touch panels
Resistive touch for mobile – Japan, Taiwan, popular in Asia
In-cell/On-cell touch in mostly coming out of Taiwan
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Differentiation Will Be Key
Need new approach to win…
Green LCD
Innovation
– Product design
– Manufacturing
– Cost management
Product Differentiation
–
Thin form factor
– Low Power
– Integrated touch screen
Collaboration
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Small/Medium Display Service
Small/Medium Displays Market Tracker (Quarterly)
Small/Medium Supply Demand Tracker (Quarterly)
Small/Medium Monthly Price Tracker (Monthly)
Displays/Mobile Handset Market Tracker (Quarterly)
Detailed look at the mobile handset display market
All technologies – OLED, EPD, LCD
Finer size, pixel format and color segmentation
OLED Market Tracker – (Bi-annual)
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