Transcript Document

Applied Market Intelligence
Mobile Displays - Market and Technology Trends
Vinita Jakhanwal
Principal Analyst
Overview


Displays are a significant part of the device BOM
 Average display costs 15% to 20% of BOM
 If we add touch cost, BOM becomes larger
A mix of display technologies continue to be used
 Specific display requirements determine display technology
 Market segment, regions, OS etc.
 Specially important when integration with touch is involved


Supplier landscape is changing
 Shift in regional presence – capacity, price, customers
 Emerging dominance of the ODM
Touch is crucial for next phase of revenue growth
 Many different approaches
 Many nodes in supply chain
 Consolidation will be the trend
iSuppli Corporation – 2
Copyright  2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
2,500,000
25%
2,000,000
15%
1,500,000
5%
1,000,000
-5%
500,000
Q-O-Q Growth %
Thousands of Units
Small/Medium TFT LCD Shipment
-15%
0
-25%
2008
2009
2010
Units
2011
2012
2013
% grow th

Large Market for small displays

Growing Market for consumer devices

Investment in larger generation fab has freed capacity for SMD displays

Price declines
iSuppli Corporation – 3
Copyright  2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Mobile Handset Display Market
Thousands of Units
2,000,000
1,500,000
PMOLED
AMOLED
MSTN
1,000,000
CSTN
LTPS
500,000
A-si
0
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014

Mobile Display industry does ok in 2009

Seasonality of 1Q is not so pronounced in 2010

Smartphone market continues to pull demand

a-Si TFT LCD will be the dominant display technology

Other technologies will coexist to support different regions, segments
iSuppli Corporation – 4
Copyright  2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
AMOLED Update
120,000
Thousands of Units
100,000
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

SMDs special support to Samsung Electronics – size, touch tech

SMD plans to add new larger gen fab likely to be Gen 5.5

Gen 8 line decision likely by 2012

AMOLED prices around 1.2x equivalent LTPS panel for wVGA

AUO and TPO likely to start production in 2011. TPO may gain because of relationship
with HTC
iSuppli Corporation – 5
Copyright  2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Mobile Handset Display Market by Size
400,000
Thousands of Units
350,000
300,000
>=4.0-in
250,000
3.x-in
200,000
2.x-in
150,000
1.x-in
100,000
50,000
0
Q109

Q209
Q309
Q409
Mainstream display size is still 2.x-inches

Smartphones are using larger than 3-inch displays

Smartphones still a limited portion of the total handset market
iSuppli Corporation – 6
Copyright  2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Smartphone Market
1,800
Thousands of Units
1,600
1,400
1,200
1,000
Smart Phones
Total handsets
800
600
400
200
0
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013

Smartphone market is growing rapidly at a CAGR of 22%

Still a small portion of the total handset market

Smartphones are mainly using wQVGA, wVGA, hVGA and VGA pixel formats

Nexus 800x480, Motorola Droid 854x480
iSuppli Corporation – 7
Copyright  2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Small/Medium TFT LCD Shipment – Taiwan
250,000
Thousands of Units
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0

2Q09
3Q09
4Q09
460
1,942
9,425
8,568
Wintek
8,603
11,869
16,362
14,130
TPO
22,351
23,297
20,317
23,364
Innolux
1,250
6,735
24,000
25,437
CPT
12,740
30,926
33,780
47,292
CMO
18,588
28,512
37,595
35,805
AU Optronics
28,325
45,413
46,500
40,435
GiantPlus

1Q09
Taiwan accounted for 48% of total mobile display TFT LCD panel shipment in 2009
Most of the panel shipments are made to Chinese gray/clone market segment
iSuppli Corporation – 8
Copyright  2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Average Value of Displays purchased Handset OEM, 3Q09
iSuppli Corporation – 9
Copyright  2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Ebook Market
Thousands of Units
25,000
20,000
15,000
Ebooks
10,000
5,000
0
2008
iSuppli Corporation – 10
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Copyright  2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
TFT LCD area Supply
1000
1000
900
900
800
800
700
700
600
600
500
500
400
400
300
300
200
200
100
100
0
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
Gen. 1


Gen. 2
Gen. 3
Gen. 4
0
1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10
Gen. 5
Japan
Korea
Taiwan
C hina
Japanese losing capacity
 Closing older generation fabs
 Mergers and acquisitions
TMD wants to convert Singapore fab for SMD production
 Inability to raise investment to do so
 Sold to AUO
iSuppli Corporation – 11
Copyright  2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
TFT LCD area Supply – Gen 4 Area capacity
Gen 4 Area capacity by Region
Japan Capacity by Fab Gen
100%
100%
90%
90%
80%
80%
70%
70%
60%
60%
50%
50%
40%
40%
30%
30%
20%
20%
10%
10%
0%
1Q08



2Q08
3Q08
4Q08
1Q09
2Q09
Gen. 1
Gen. 2
Gen. 3
Gen. 4
3Q09
4Q09
0%
1Q08
2Q08
3Q08
Japan
4Q08
Korea
1Q09
Taiwan
2Q09
3Q09
C hina
2 Gen 1 fabs in operation, 13 Gen 2 fabs (5 in use), 9 Gen 3 (6 in use), 6 Gen 4
Japan - 50% of area capacity comes from smaller than Gen 4 fabs
 Gen 4 percentage is increasing because older gen fabs are being closed
 Total area capacity is decreasing
Japanese share in Gen 4 fab area capacity is decreasing as Taiwan and China expand
capacity for SMD
iSuppli Corporation – 12
Copyright  2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Mobile Touch


Main Touch technologies for Mobile
 Resistive
 Capacitive
 In-cell/ On-cell touch
 Other – Haptics, IR, Active digitizer
Touch Technology Issues
 Within LCD there are differences in LCD drive technologies
 TN LCD, VA LCD, IPS LCD, AFFS LCD
 LCD vs AMOLED
 Projective capacitive sensitivity to signal noise for LCDs
–
It has to be very finely tuned to eliminate the noise and fine tune the signal to noise ratio. While this is
achievable it makes it more difficult when you want to add something such as a digitizer to the device
components. Each additional source of signal noise has to be taken into account and worked around.
 AMOLED overcomes this issue as there is no LC material that needs to align for the drive
 AMOLED on-cell touch is faster to the market than LCD on-cell
–
–

AMOLED innovatively uses the encapsulation glass as the touch glass surface
No color filter layer improvers transmittance
Taiwan Suppliers are leaders for mobile touch
 Capacitive suppliers using old LCD fabs to make ITO coated touch panels
 Resistive touch for mobile – Japan, Taiwan, popular in Asia
 In-cell/On-cell touch in mostly coming out of Taiwan
iSuppli Corporation – 13
Copyright  2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Differentiation Will Be Key

Need new approach to win…
 Green LCD
 Innovation
– Product design
– Manufacturing
– Cost management
 Product Differentiation
–
Thin form factor
– Low Power
– Integrated touch screen
 Collaboration
iSuppli Corporation – 14
Copyright  2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending
Small/Medium Display Service

Small/Medium Displays Market Tracker (Quarterly)

Small/Medium Supply Demand Tracker (Quarterly)

Small/Medium Monthly Price Tracker (Monthly)

Displays/Mobile Handset Market Tracker (Quarterly)
 Detailed look at the mobile handset display market
 All technologies – OLED, EPD, LCD
 Finer size, pixel format and color segmentation

OLED Market Tracker – (Bi-annual)
iSuppli Corporation – 15
Copyright  2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending