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Applied Market Intelligence Mobile Displays - Market and Technology Trends Vinita Jakhanwal Principal Analyst Overview Displays are a significant part of the device BOM Average display costs 15% to 20% of BOM If we add touch cost, BOM becomes larger A mix of display technologies continue to be used Specific display requirements determine display technology Market segment, regions, OS etc. Specially important when integration with touch is involved Supplier landscape is changing Shift in regional presence – capacity, price, customers Emerging dominance of the ODM Touch is crucial for next phase of revenue growth Many different approaches Many nodes in supply chain Consolidation will be the trend iSuppli Corporation – 2 Copyright 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending 2,500,000 25% 2,000,000 15% 1,500,000 5% 1,000,000 -5% 500,000 Q-O-Q Growth % Thousands of Units Small/Medium TFT LCD Shipment -15% 0 -25% 2008 2009 2010 Units 2011 2012 2013 % grow th Large Market for small displays Growing Market for consumer devices Investment in larger generation fab has freed capacity for SMD displays Price declines iSuppli Corporation – 3 Copyright 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending Mobile Handset Display Market Thousands of Units 2,000,000 1,500,000 PMOLED AMOLED MSTN 1,000,000 CSTN LTPS 500,000 A-si 0 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Mobile Display industry does ok in 2009 Seasonality of 1Q is not so pronounced in 2010 Smartphone market continues to pull demand a-Si TFT LCD will be the dominant display technology Other technologies will coexist to support different regions, segments iSuppli Corporation – 4 Copyright 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending AMOLED Update 120,000 Thousands of Units 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 SMDs special support to Samsung Electronics – size, touch tech SMD plans to add new larger gen fab likely to be Gen 5.5 Gen 8 line decision likely by 2012 AMOLED prices around 1.2x equivalent LTPS panel for wVGA AUO and TPO likely to start production in 2011. TPO may gain because of relationship with HTC iSuppli Corporation – 5 Copyright 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending Mobile Handset Display Market by Size 400,000 Thousands of Units 350,000 300,000 >=4.0-in 250,000 3.x-in 200,000 2.x-in 150,000 1.x-in 100,000 50,000 0 Q109 Q209 Q309 Q409 Mainstream display size is still 2.x-inches Smartphones are using larger than 3-inch displays Smartphones still a limited portion of the total handset market iSuppli Corporation – 6 Copyright 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending Smartphone Market 1,800 Thousands of Units 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 Smart Phones Total handsets 800 600 400 200 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Smartphone market is growing rapidly at a CAGR of 22% Still a small portion of the total handset market Smartphones are mainly using wQVGA, wVGA, hVGA and VGA pixel formats Nexus 800x480, Motorola Droid 854x480 iSuppli Corporation – 7 Copyright 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending Small/Medium TFT LCD Shipment – Taiwan 250,000 Thousands of Units 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 0 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 460 1,942 9,425 8,568 Wintek 8,603 11,869 16,362 14,130 TPO 22,351 23,297 20,317 23,364 Innolux 1,250 6,735 24,000 25,437 CPT 12,740 30,926 33,780 47,292 CMO 18,588 28,512 37,595 35,805 AU Optronics 28,325 45,413 46,500 40,435 GiantPlus 1Q09 Taiwan accounted for 48% of total mobile display TFT LCD panel shipment in 2009 Most of the panel shipments are made to Chinese gray/clone market segment iSuppli Corporation – 8 Copyright 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending Average Value of Displays purchased Handset OEM, 3Q09 iSuppli Corporation – 9 Copyright 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending Ebook Market Thousands of Units 25,000 20,000 15,000 Ebooks 10,000 5,000 0 2008 iSuppli Corporation – 10 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Copyright 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending TFT LCD area Supply 1000 1000 900 900 800 800 700 700 600 600 500 500 400 400 300 300 200 200 100 100 0 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 Gen. 1 Gen. 2 Gen. 3 Gen. 4 0 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 3Q09 4Q09 1Q10 2Q10 3Q10 4Q10 Gen. 5 Japan Korea Taiwan C hina Japanese losing capacity Closing older generation fabs Mergers and acquisitions TMD wants to convert Singapore fab for SMD production Inability to raise investment to do so Sold to AUO iSuppli Corporation – 11 Copyright 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending TFT LCD area Supply – Gen 4 Area capacity Gen 4 Area capacity by Region Japan Capacity by Fab Gen 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 4Q08 1Q09 2Q09 Gen. 1 Gen. 2 Gen. 3 Gen. 4 3Q09 4Q09 0% 1Q08 2Q08 3Q08 Japan 4Q08 Korea 1Q09 Taiwan 2Q09 3Q09 C hina 2 Gen 1 fabs in operation, 13 Gen 2 fabs (5 in use), 9 Gen 3 (6 in use), 6 Gen 4 Japan - 50% of area capacity comes from smaller than Gen 4 fabs Gen 4 percentage is increasing because older gen fabs are being closed Total area capacity is decreasing Japanese share in Gen 4 fab area capacity is decreasing as Taiwan and China expand capacity for SMD iSuppli Corporation – 12 Copyright 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending Mobile Touch Main Touch technologies for Mobile Resistive Capacitive In-cell/ On-cell touch Other – Haptics, IR, Active digitizer Touch Technology Issues Within LCD there are differences in LCD drive technologies TN LCD, VA LCD, IPS LCD, AFFS LCD LCD vs AMOLED Projective capacitive sensitivity to signal noise for LCDs – It has to be very finely tuned to eliminate the noise and fine tune the signal to noise ratio. While this is achievable it makes it more difficult when you want to add something such as a digitizer to the device components. Each additional source of signal noise has to be taken into account and worked around. AMOLED overcomes this issue as there is no LC material that needs to align for the drive AMOLED on-cell touch is faster to the market than LCD on-cell – – AMOLED innovatively uses the encapsulation glass as the touch glass surface No color filter layer improvers transmittance Taiwan Suppliers are leaders for mobile touch Capacitive suppliers using old LCD fabs to make ITO coated touch panels Resistive touch for mobile – Japan, Taiwan, popular in Asia In-cell/On-cell touch in mostly coming out of Taiwan iSuppli Corporation – 13 Copyright 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending Differentiation Will Be Key Need new approach to win… Green LCD Innovation – Product design – Manufacturing – Cost management Product Differentiation – Thin form factor – Low Power – Integrated touch screen Collaboration iSuppli Corporation – 14 Copyright 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending Small/Medium Display Service Small/Medium Displays Market Tracker (Quarterly) Small/Medium Supply Demand Tracker (Quarterly) Small/Medium Monthly Price Tracker (Monthly) Displays/Mobile Handset Market Tracker (Quarterly) Detailed look at the mobile handset display market All technologies – OLED, EPD, LCD Finer size, pixel format and color segmentation OLED Market Tracker – (Bi-annual) iSuppli Corporation – 15 Copyright 2000-2008 iSuppli Corporation. All Worldwide Rights Reserved. Confidential – Patents Pending