Transcript Slide 1

Biomass resources and
bioenergy technologies –
from potentials to investment
Heinz Kopetz,
European Biomass Association
AEBIOM
Budapest, 17 November 2008
Eufores
www.aebiom.org
[email protected]
Structure
• Resources
• Efficiency
• Technologies
• Investment opportunities
• Conclusions and recommondations
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Main criteria for energy policy
Basic criteria for EU energy policy
– Environment, reduction GHG
– Security of supply
– Competitiveness
Additional criteria for bioenergy policy
– Food security
– Sufficient supply of wood industry
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The role of biomass
Biomass ist the most important of RES, covering 2/3 of all RES.
Final energy from all renewables and from biomass
289
Mtoe
195
105
68
2005
2020
Total Renewables
Source: Eurostat, EREC, AEBIOM.
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Biomass
The importance of government policy
Government policy is decisive for the quantity of final energy you get
from a given quantity of primary energy.
220 Mtoe biomass are necessary to reach in the 20% target of the Directive in
the year 2020:
25
Mtoe
75
A policy focused on biofuels
and electricity might deliver
145 Mtoe final energy,
220
195
145
whereas a policy
concentrated on efficient
conversion and heat might
provide 195 Mtoe final energy.
,
primary energy
Primary
energy
Final
energy
losses
final energy:
focus on
electricity
Source: AEBIOM.
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final energy:
efficient
conversion
Eurostat Statistics
Balance
sheets
2006
Primary biomass
89 025 ktoe
Input to electricity
and CHP
27 312 ktoe
Electric efficiency : 28,3%
Global efficiency : 50%
Biomass for
households and
services
35 005 ktoe
Input to DH
3 538 ktoe
Biomass for
industry
17 298 ktoe
Bioelectricity
7 731 ktoe
89 908 GWh
Derived heat
7 686 ktoe
Biofuels
5 375 ktoe
Defining the target as a percentage of the final energy
favours the heat market very much !
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The efficient use of biomass in 2020
AEBIOM targets (Mtoe)
2005
2020
3,1
6,9
30
heat
electricity
biofuels
17,2
57,5
2005
2020
Total primary biomass
82
220
Final heat
57,5
147,5
electricity
6,9
17,2
biofuels
3,1
30,0
67,5
194,7
total final energy from
biomass
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147,5
Source: AEBIOM.
Final energy from Renewables in EU 27
in 2005 and 2020
300
250
Mtoe
200
20%
Other renewables
Biofuels
Bioelectricity from pellets
Bioelectricity (except pellets)
Pellets for heat
Biomass for heat (except pellets)
25 Mt pellets
1% of RES
150
8,5%
100
50 Mt pellets
7% of RES
50
0
2005
2020
Strong government policies are necessary to develop bioenergy in an
efficient way! Pellets will play a significant role!
Source: AEBIOM, Eurostat.
www.aebiom.org
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Is there enough biomass to reach these targets?
Biomass from forests
• Additional demand for wood (material use and energy) until 2020:
380 Mm³ wood!
• Where can these 380 Mm³ wood come from until 2020?
– from existing forests by better mobilization?
– from new short rotation coppices?
– from imports from abroad?
www.aebiom.org
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Is there enough biomass to reach these targets?
Biomass from agriculture
•
Utilized agric. Land (UAA) in EU 27: 160 Mha
– 100 Mh arable land
– 50 Mha permanent grassland
– 10 Mha permanent crops (wine, apple, olive etc.)
•
Necessary arable land per capita for sufficient food supply: 0,16 ha for 495
M population: 80 Mha
– therefore about 20 Mha arable land can be used for energy and industry:
•
The demand for grassland is declining:
– -20% of cattle heads in 20 years, at least 10 Mha grassland could be used for
energy and industry supply!
Summary: at least 25 Mha land are available for dedicated energy crops, in addition
byproducts from agriculture such as straw or manure!
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How to use this land
to optimize bioenergy production?
Scenario by AEBIOM; Oct.2008:
• 8 Mha for solid biomass as short rotation forests, miscanthus, new
energy crops for heat and electricity and maybe second generation
fuels.
• 14 Mha land for biofuels first generation and 3 Mha for biogas.
• The 8 Mha short rotation forests could produce 250 Mm³ wood
annually, the 14 Mha agricultural crops could deliver raw material for
21 Mtoe biofuels first generation, additional 5Mtoe biofuels as
biomethan and electricity and heat!
www.aebiom.org
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www.aebiom.org
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www.aebiom.org
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How to use this land
to optimize bioenergy production?
use
Scenario by AEBIOM; Oct. 2008:
Mha
%
Energy Mtoe
%
biogas
3
12
16,0
20
short rotation
8
32
41,6
53
biofuels
14
56
21,0
27
Total
25
100
78,6
100
Source: AEBIOM.
land use, 2020, Mha
produced energy, 2020, Mtoe
3
16
21
biogas
8
14
short rotation
biofuels
41,6
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The double harvest producing
first generation fuels
100.000ha arable land for biofuels in Europe delivers:
• In the case of ethanol:
– >240.000m³ ethanol = 130.000 t gasoline and
– >180.000 t protein feed (DDGS) = 60.000ha soja
• In the case of biodiesel:
– > 120.000t biodiesel = 100.000 t diesel and
– > 170.000t rape cake as protein feed = 60.000 ha soja beans
abroad!
Conclusion: if we use unused land (set aside, fallowed land) we produce energy
and improve the food supply!
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The utilization of the European
harvest of cereals
Average harvest:
285 Mt
for food:
50 Mt
for energy (2007):
4,2 Mt
Source: ebio.
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An example: biofuels and the
cereal market
Big variations in the cereal harvest: 60 Mt from year to year.
• Average demand for food: 50 Mt
340
320
• In the past 10% set aside and yet
surplus production of 12% and annual
export between 10 and 30 Mt cereals.
300
280
• Use for ethanol production in 2007:
4,2 Mt cereal = 0,5 Mha
260
240
220
200
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: Eurostat.
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2008
An example: biofuels and the
cereal market
Big variations in the cereal harvest: 60 Mt from year to year.
• Average demand for food: 50 Mt
350
300
• In the past 10% set aside and yet
surplus production of 12% and annual
export between 10 and 30 Mt cereals.
250
200
• Use for ethanol production in 2007:
4,2 Mt cereal = 0,5 Mha
150
100
50
3
0
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
4,5
2007
5
2008
• Conclusion: the high food prices in
2007/08 were not caused by the
European ethanol production but by the
declining harvest from 2004 to 2007.
Source: Eurostat.
The important question: How to combine biofuel production with the variations of the
harvest on a European and a global scale?
Because the alternative to biofuels is overproductiven or set aside land!
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First answers
1. Where can these 380 Mm³ wood come from until 2020?
– from existing forests by better mobilization?....100Mm³
– From new short rotation coppices?..................240Mm³
– From imports from abroad?............................. 40Mm³
2. Do we have enough potential to provide 220Mtoe biomass for 2020?
Yes, about 200 Mtoe from the EU27 and 20 Mtoe from abroad (pellets,
biofuels)
•
Yet
- the abandoned land has to be used,
- no obstacles to use parts of the permanent grassland for bioenergy
- incentives to plant short rotation forests
- incentives for biogas plants
- priority for biofuels from Europe
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AEBIOM targets for bioenergy, Mtoe
2004: EU25; Scenario 2020 EU27
250
200
Imports
150
Bioenergy from
waste
100
Agricultural based
bioenergy
wood based
bioenergy
50
0
2004
2020
Source: AEBIOM.
www.aebiom.org
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Structure
• Resources
• Efficiency
• Technologies
• Investment opportunities
• Conclusions: targets, directive, political framework,
opportunities
www.aebiom.org
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The need for a better efficiency
• Europe needs to develop an efficient energy system to cope with the
future problems.
• Efficiency concerns the conversion process and the end-use.
• The biggest losses in efficiency occur in the conversion from
primary energy to electricity without using the heat. These
losses are higher as all contributions of RES.
• The target setting in final energy and not in primary energy will draw
the attention to this issue, especially in setting up the national action
plans, where you have to decide where to use the available
biomass.
• An example:
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Contribution of biomass to final energy
Example: Given 100.000 m³ wood (=719 TJ)
800
700
600
TJ
500
400
719
719
300
561
200
100
201
0
primary energy
firewood
Primary energy
Source: AEBIOM.
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wood for DH
Final energy
wood for el
Contribution of biomass to final energy
Biomass 2006: primary energy – losses – final energy, EU27, in Mtoe.
Efficiency: electricity 27,7%; heat 18,0%; total 45,7%.
100
90
80
27,3
BM for electricity
and CHP
70
14,6
60
3,5
5,4
BM for DH
0,8
BM biofuels
7,7
electricity
5
2,7
5,4
heat
heat
fuels
17,3
heat
50
17,3
40
BM industry heat
30
heat
20
35
BM HH heat
35
10
0
primary energy
89,0
losses
15,9
Source: Eurostat.
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final energy
73,1
Further conclusions
• In the directive there is an efficiency for combustion from 70% for
industry and 85% residential heating proposed.
• There also should be a minimum of 60% for electricity from biomass
for new plants.
• Why not using the same threshhold for fossil fuels?
• If we really want to improve the efficiency of the energy system,
all new electricity plants – be the energy carrier fossil or
biomass –should be cogeneration plants with a minimum
efficiency of 60%, also in the case of cofiring!
www.aebiom.org
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Structure
• Resources
• Efficiency
• Technologies
• Investment opportunities
• Conclusions: targets, directive, political framework,
opportunities
www.aebiom.org
[email protected]
Technologies I: biomass to heat
Technologies for efficient combustion of biomass are available for
all sizes from 20 kW up to 100 MW: pellets boilers, pellet stoves, log
wood boilers, chip boilers, wood waste boilers.
The raw material can be: fire wood, saw mill chips, wood chips,
pellets, bark, straw, other by-products from the forest and wood
industry.
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Technologies II: biomass to electricity
Biomass for electricity should only be used in cogeneration units
New technologies coming to the market:
• Stirling engine combined with pellet boiler for familiy houses
• Wood gasification in small scale for small district heating
Well proven technologies:
• The ORC process starting from 400 kW el upwards
• Small steam turbines starting from 1 MW el
• Traditional bigger solutions using the steam process
• Biogas in combination with a gas engine
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Technologies III: biofuels, biogas
•
•
•
•
Ethanol by fermentation
Biodiesel by esterification
Biomethan by cleaning the biogas
2nd generation fuels using different technologies (cellulose to sugar,
wood to gas and to liquids – Fischer Tropsch, pyrolisis)
2nd generation fuels would have a low efficiency, if the
produced heat cannot be used, therefore biorefieneries, that
produce fuels, heat and electricity, pellets or pulp would be the
best place to produce these fuels.
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Structure
• Resources
• Efficiency
• Technologies
• Investment opportunities
• Conclusions: targets, directive, political framework,
opportunities
www.aebiom.org
[email protected]
Investment opportunities:
Individual heating
• Individual heating: an important sector, main interest pellets, main
obstacle: lack of capital. A Change from oil or gas heating systems
to pellets costs 12.000 to 16.000 €.
•
•
•
Given a region with a population of 10 M people and the target to change 20.000 units per year
you need 300 M€ capital. That can come partly from private households partly from government
support.
Experience shows you need financial support programs for private househoulds: in this example
100 M€ per year!
With such a program you create
investment opportunities in the
production of pellets boilers, of
pellets and 1000s new jobs to
install the new systems, you
reduce 150.000t C0² every year
cumulative and save around
40MEuro for certificates, 35M Euro
consumer expenditures as
compared to using oil or gas!
www.aebiom.org
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Investment opportunities:
Heat for Industry and district heating
• Biomass for heat in industry plays already an important role and
offers new interesting opportunities given the high priced of gas and
oil
• District heating (DH) is a necessity to get to efficient combined heat
and power solutions. It is a pity that these systems are dismantled
partly in Central Europe. In the future, DH with biomass will be much
cheaper than natural gas or oil, therefore a strong push for DH
heating with biomass is necessary!
• You need financial programs
– for the modernization of existing DH plants and for new ones,
– for the switch from fossil fuels to biomass
– also a financial support of private houses to connect to DH grids proved
to be very succesful.
– The advantages concerning C0² reduction, improved security, savings
for consumers are the same as mentioned for individual heating.
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Example: District heating
with biomass in Austria
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Economic effects of rural district heating:
An example of an Austrian Village
•
•
•
•
•
Size: 420 KW heat (for 20 family houses)
Sold heat/year: 610.000 kWh
Combustible: 1080 m³ wood chips
Investment: 280.000 Euro
Financed by:
– 1 customer fee for connection grid:
– Support rural development prog.:
– Own capital and bank credit:
Total
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70 000€
85 000€
125 000€
280 000€
Village heated with heating oil
70.000Euro going abroad
abroad
village
70.000l heating oil coming from abroad
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Village heated with local
district heating plant based on biomass
55.000 Euro going to the
heating plant remain in the
region
Heating
plant
village
600.000kWh heat coming from
the heating plant
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Investment opportunities cogeneration:
Electricity & heat
Electricity comes
– from wood, byproducts of the wood and forest industry, straw
and
– from biogas.
Two preconditions
– Satisfying feed in tariffs
– Concept to use the heat to reach an efficieny of at least 60%. In
many cases heat driven CHP-plants.
Many countries offer good opportunities!
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Investment opportunities:
Biogas
•
•
•
Biogas offers the chance to use feedstock for energy like waste, manure,
that are without competition and offer a additional raw material base; on the
basis of energy crops it uses the whole plant for energy and delivers high
yields per hectar.
It is a typical decentralised technology for rather
smaller units 0,2 – 2MW
.
The use can be
– electricity and heat
– feed in gas pipelines after cleaning
– After cleaning and compressing as
biomethan in cars, buses.
•
The development of biogas depends
upon the government policies such as
– feed in tariffs
– access to gas grid
– programs for biomethan as fuels for cars
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Investment opportunities:
Liquid fuels
•
•
•
•
•
Ethanol
Biodiesel
2nd generation fuels
Biogas
In the future: biodiesel from algae
www.aebiom.org
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Structure
• Resources
• Efficiency
• Technologies
• Investment opportunities
• Conclusions: targets, directive, political framework,
opportunities
www.aebiom.org
[email protected]
Conclusions and summary
The political framework conditions are decisive for the rapid development of
bioenergy: feed in-tariffs, financial support programs, no obstacles by the
administration.
1) Sufficient biomass potential in Europe, but is has to be developed
mobilization of wood, incentives for new SRF, use of permanent
energy production, training
grassland for
2) The dilemma of food versus fuel can be solved
yet more attention to the questions:
a) How can we better take into account the annual variations of the harvest?
b) How can we avoid that biofuels consumption in Europe based on imported biofuels
causes food shortage in the producing countries?
3) More attention to biogas as efficient energy chain using a technology
offered by nature – the most efficient 2nd generation fuel
feed in tariffs, grid access, investment support, policy for biomethan as
transport fuel
www.aebiom.org
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Conclusions and summary
4) The transformation of the heating sector from fossil to renewable
(biomass, solar thermal) offers huge opportunities.
Needed are financial support programs for individuals, for construction, modernisation
of District Heating (DH) for the switch from fossil to biomass in DH.
5) Electricity from biomass in combination with the use of the produced
heat in industry, buildings or via district heating,
support by feed in tariffs, minimum efficient rule of 60%, only CHP units be they small
or big.
www.aebiom.org
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The positive effects of bioenergy
•
•
•
•
Huge reduction of GHG emissions
Reduction of fossil imports by 150 to 200 Mtoe
Savings by less demand for C0² certificates
Considerable savings for consumer using
biomass as heat
• New jobs in many parts of the economy
• Improved rural development
• Improved security of supply
www.aebiom.org
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Thank you for your attention
Heinz Kopetz
[email protected]
www.aebiom.org
[email protected]