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Working Group of ISSI, Swiss, January, 2015
THE ENERGETICS
OF MODERN CLIMATE
CHANGES
1,2
S.V.AVAKYAN
3
A.AYLWORD
1 All-Russian SCIENTIFIC CENTER
S.I.VAVILOV STATE OPTICAL INSTITUTE,
2 CENTRAL (at Pulkovo) ASTRONOMICAL OBSERVATORY
RAS,
3 UNIVERSITY COLLEGE of LONDON
ABSTRACT
We analyze the link between the cloudiness cover and the
level of solar-geomagnetic activity including solar flares
and principal magnetic storms. The existence of this link
was confirmed for global distribution of different cloud
levels for different time scales – from daily variations at
high mountain station to long-term trends during the last
decades.
The results of the investigation have been used for analysis
of energy of sun-weather-climate
connections including changes in radiation balance and
global air temperature during last decades.
Some ways of taking into account the solar signal in midlong term weather forecast are suggested.
ABSTRACT
The contribution of novel radiooptical trigger
mechanism of solar-tropospheric correlation with
used microwaves emission of highly excited
Rydberg states from disturbance ionosphere. There
the microwave radiation can interact with water
cluster ions. Depending on circumstances and the
size of clusters, this may either disrupt or build the
clusters, thus possibly affecting cloud formation.
Controlling the amount of cloud influences the
surface temperature. We would like to spark a
discussion of this mechanism to see if it can be
established qualitatively how important this might
be for climate control.
“Energetics of the modern climate changes”
1). We consider the impact of microwave emissions of the ionosphere
disturbed by solar flares and magnetic storms on the troposphere
and suggest the radio-optical trigger mechanism of the solar
influence on weather and climate of the Earth, which consists of the
following three stages:
- the ionosphere absorbs the ionizing solar radiation and corpuscles
from the radiation belts and transforms them into microwaves
through the excitation of Rydberg states;
- the rates of formation and destruction of water cluster ions are
regulated by the microwave radiation at the troposphere;
- the clusters contribute to the formation of cloud, which affects the
energy flux of the solar radiation at the troposphere and the flux of
the ougoing heat from the underlying surface.
Transmission of atmosphere.
«RADIOOPTICAL THREE STAGE TRIGGER»
IN SOLAR – WEATHER / CLIMATE LINKS
I stage
Energy conversion in the ionosphere of the solar
and geomagnetic activity to the MICROWAVE
FLUX, which penetrates to the earth surface
II stage
The microwave radiation control of the RATES OF
FORMATION AND DESTRUCTION of
WATER VAPOUR CLUSTER IONS
in lower atmosphere at altitude more then 2 km
III stage
The contribution of the water vapour clusters to the
formation of cloudness and atmospheric aerosol
layers which absorb and reflect the solar
irradiance as well as thermal radiation coming
out from the underlying surface
We consider the impact of microwave emissions of
the ionosphere disturbed by solar flares and
magnetic storms on the troposphere and suggest
the solar influence on weather and climate of the
Earth.
The ionosphere absorbs the ionizing solar
radiation and corpuscles from the radiation belts
and transforms these into microwaves
through the excitation of Rydberg states
(inflated, blown up atoms and molecules) by
impact of ionospheric photo-, Auger and
THE NUMBER OF DISTURBING EVENTS
PER YEAR
FORBUSH DECREASE EVENTS:
1 (at 10 - 20%),
2 – 4 (at more than 3%, out
of periods of geomagnetic storms and SCR).
SOLAR PROTON EVENTS (SCR):
5 (at the energy
more than 100 MeV)
GEOMAGNETIC STORMS: 20 – 70 (for Kp more than 5).
SOLAR FLARES:
S.E.C. User News, 2000
50 (for class more than M5).
THE ENERGETICS OF SPACE FACTORS
The magnitudes of energy fluxes, coming to terrestrial atmosphere
Radiation belts
during magnetic
storms
1 Wm-2
SUN
Solar
luminosity
1367 Wm-2
UV
0,1 Wm-2
Solar wind
310-4 Wm-2
Galactic cosmic rays
710-6 Wm-2
Solar cosmic
rays
210-3 Wm-2
Magnitude of energy flaxes, absorbed in the earth atmosphere
FROM SUN
IN LOW ATMOSPHERE
710-5 Wgramm-1
FROM RADIATION BELTS
DURING MAGNETIC STORMS
IN IONOSPHERE
10-3 W gramm-1
IN IONOSPHERE
10-1 W gramm-1
The IONOSPHERE IS FIRST CANDIDATE on the ROLE of AGENT of
INFLUENCE in the PHYSICS of SOLAR-TERRESTRIAL LINKS
CONTROL CONDENSATION MECHANISM DURING
DISTURBANCES IN SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITIES.
Sun's flare phenomena
RADIO BURST EUV/X-ray FLARE
MAGNETOSPHERE
Principal magnetic STORM
PRECIPITATION (e, p) from radiation belts
ADDITIONAL IONIZATION of the upper atmosphere
Photoelectrons, secondary electrons, Auger electrons
Excitation of high excited (RYDBERG) states
SPORADIC MICROWAVE IONOSPHERIC EMISSIONS
Control of condensation mechanism and change of atmospheric
transparence by means of variation for ratio:
VAPOURS OF H2O / CLUSTERS FROM THE WATER VAPOUR
CONTROL BY MICROWAVE RADIATION
of ion cluster chemistry in low atmosphere
THE INCREASE OF MICROWAVE FLUX
FROM SUN AND TERRESTRIAL IONOSPHERE
AT THE DESTRUCTION OF CLUSTERS:
Decrease of dissociative recombination rate for cluster from
the water vapor after formation of the stable RYDBERG
STATES (l>2) in the microwave field.
Bates D.R., “Collisional dissociative recombination” of
cluster ions, 1981.
AT THE FORMATION OF CLUSTERS:
Increasing of association rate for polyatomic molecules
with formation of the stable RYDBERG ORBITAL (l>2) in
the microwave field.
Gallas J.A.C. et al., 1985.
CONTROL CONDENSATION-CLASTER MECHANISM DURING
DISTURBANCES IN SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITIES.
SPORADIC MICROWAVE IONOSPHERIC EMISSIONS
Increase of microwave fluxes from ionosphere
Arising of condensational cluster haze in the troposphere
Appearance of optically thin cloudiness
Decreasing of the
atmospheric pressure
Decreasing (at day, summer) /
increasing (at night, winter)
of the air temperature
Formation of total cloudiness
Here, we have revealed the inconsistency of the following
frequently occurred assertions:
1. The global warming is basically due to the greenhouse
effect related
to anthropogenic (carbon-containing) gases;
2. The increase in CO2 concentration is caused by
industrial, energetical, and transport ejections;
Here, we have revealed the inconsistency of the following
frequently occurred assertions:
3. In spite of the fact that no pronounced “solar
signal” is seen in climatic variations.
4. The climate is basically affected by variations in
the solar constant-TSI and in cosmic rays,
The results of our study indicate the reverse:
1. The basic factor of the impact of solar-geomagnetic
activity on the climate and weather is the microwave
radiation of the ionosphere, which affects cloudiness.
2. The basic factor of anthropogenic impact is
deforestation (last 50 years quintative of the forest decrease
in two times (UNEP)) and abiotization of the land; only for
the latest 30 years, the outcome of carbon dioxide from the
troposphere to photosynthesis has decreased by the factor
of 1.5 (from 300 to 200 bln tons)
The results of our study indicate the reverse:
3. The contribution of the “solar signal, or factors of increased
solar-geomagnetic activity”, to the global warming in the late XX early XXI centuries dominates, while the greenhouse effect related to
anthropogenic gases is of the second order
4. At the current stage of secular solar cycle, the role of the “solar
signal” decreases, while deforestation increases.
5. Permanently for air temperature growth there are the increasing
of the contribution of urbanization, especially for the based (old)
meteorological observatories and stations
6. But may be also the influence of the OCEAN DAMPING make the
lag at the 15 – 18 years /Pokrovsky O.M., 2010/
Our calculations
Vertical profiles of Rydberg state excitation rates:1-quiet Sun; 2-solar flare X1
(a), (b), (c) total excitation for the oxygen and nitrogen molecules and oxygen atom,
1 

respectively, in transition (s = 1); (d) partial excitation of level c 4 u ( = 0) of the
nitrogen molecule.
Avakyan, Voronin, Serova, 1997.
250
Our calculations
240
230
220
1
2
3
4
5
210
200
H, km
190
180
170
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
1,0E-1
1,0E+0
1,0E+1
1,0E+2
-3
-1
q, cm s
1,0E+3
1,0E+4
The high function of
excitation rates for
Rydberg states for
auroral zone (night
aurora, IBC II):
1) the total excitation
for nitrogen
molecule,
2) the total excitation
for oxygen molecule,
3-5) the partial
excitation for atomic
oxygen (3 - s = 0,
4 - l = 1, s = 0,
5 - l = 0, s = 0).
Avakyan S.V., 25th
General Assembly of
URSI, 1996, France,
JOT OSA, 2005
ENERGETICS OF MICROWAVE IONOSPHERIC GENERATION
The ratio of the energies dissipated in the ionosphere when there is a
solar flare and during a geomagnetic storm shows that the flux of
microwave radiation can be factor of 10–100 greater in intensity in the
period of a magnetic storm. In this case, the radiation in the centimeter
and decimeter ranges can now exceed 10−11–10−12 W cm−2.On the other
hand, a calculation of the excitation rates of the Rydberg states of the
oxygen atom gave a value of about 109 particles cm−2 sec−1 in a column
of the ionosphere during the period of a medium class-(X1) 2B solar
flare. Then, for values of the quantum energy in the centimeter range of
2x10−23 (for Lambda=1 cm) – 2x10−24 J (for Lambda =10 cm) in this
column in ten allowed transitions, we have a flux density of microwave
radiation of 2x10−13–2x10−14 W/cm2. This flux density is the lower limit
for transitions with delta n=1 (only for delta l=1), i.e., those of the type
n', l'=n'−1→n'−1, l''=n'−2, where n'=11–20 for an oxygen atom.This
value increases to 10−11–10−12 W / cm2 during a magnetic storm.
THE COLLISIONS CAN BE NEGLECTED (IN ENERGY
CALCULATIONS, WITHOUT THE ACCOUNT OF
REDISTRIBUTION ON A SPECTRUM)
rad. ~ n4 10-9 s.
250
n = 10
H, км
200
n = 20
n = 10 (10-13 см2)
150
100
1,E-07
1,E-06
1,E-05
1,E-04
1,E-03
T, с
1,E-02
1,E-01
1,E+00
l  2 - small
predissociation,
autoionization,
collisional ionization,
collisional
dissociation
Avakyan, J. Opt. Techn., 2006.
EXPERIMENTAL CONFIRMATIONS
We should emphasise that all the stages of the
proposed mechanism were confirmed experimentally:
-The microwave radiation of the ionosphere
intensifying during solar and magnetic storms was
detected (V.S.Troitskii et al., 1973).
-The control of humidity at heights exceeding 3 km by
both the microwave radiation of the Sun and solar
flares was recorded (Krauklis et al., 1990; Nikol’skii
and Shul’ts, 1991).
-The direct influence of solar and magnetic storms on
the total cloudiness was clearly fixed (Dmitriev and
Lomakina, 1977; Veretenenko and Pudovkin, 1996).
The observation from Caucas Mounts (more
than 2 km) show that OPTICAL
TRANSPARENCY OF TROPOSPHERE
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE ABSORPTION BANDS FOR WATER
VAPORS AND WATER CLUSTERS (
320 - 330, 360,
380 - 390, 400 and 480 nm) HAVE THE
CONTROL BY SOLAR FLARES and
MICROWAVE BURSTS: association of
clusters at the microwaves  2-3 cm and
more12 cm;their dissociation at  3- 12 cm
Kondrat’iev K., Nikol’skii G., Shults E.s,
1990, 1991, 1995.
W, cm Deposited layer water
2100 m
RB
on frequencies
from 2950 MHz
to 15000 MHz
RB
Flares
Local time
The day time dependence of total content of a water vapour at the altitude
more than a level of 2,1 km for July 29, 1981. Wф - restored day time course W
in background requirements. In the bottom part of figure ARE SHOWN
DURATION AND POWER OF SOLAR FLARES (SF, IF) AND
RADIOBURSTS (RВ). G.A. Nikol’skii, Shults E.O., 1991.
W, cm Deposited layer water
Local time
The day time dependence of total content of a water vapour W on
broadband filter actinometer at the altitude more than a level of 2,1 km.
Observations 11.10.1981. ON AN ABSCISSA AXIS THE SOLAR
FLARE ARE SHOWN. G.A. Nikol’skii, Shults E.O., 1991.
2.4
1 3 :2 9
Wo (см. ос. воды)
2.2
I
2.0
1.8
1.6
W o (8 1 7 )
1.4
W o (9 4 5 )
1.2
1.0
1 0:00
11 :0 0
12 :0 0
13 :0 0
14 :0 0
15:00
16:00
T ime UT
Decreasing (on 5 %) of total content of water vapour at atmospheric
columb (during solar flares 19.05.2007 with beginning 13.02 UT). The
joint Russian ( Pulkovo Astronomical Observat. of RAS) and (Astman
Observatory) experiment in Germany, Lindenberg. /V.Galkin e.a., 2012/
Discovery of sporadic radioemission for the
terrestrial ionosphere during
the solar flares and aurora ( = 3 cm - 50 cm)
Forsyth P.A., Petrie W., Currie B.W., On the origin of ten centimeter
radiation from the polar aurora, Can. J. of Res., 28A, 3, 324, 1950.
Troitskii V.S., Starodubtseva A.M., Bondar' L.N., et al Search for
sporadic radio emission from cosmic space at centimeter and decimeter
wavelengths. Radiophysics., v. XVI, N 3, pp. 323-342, 1973.
Musatenko S.I., Radioemission of a circumterraneous space as result of
influence of solar flares on magnetosphere and ionosphere of the Earth,
Geomagnrtizm and aeronomy., v. 20, N 5, pp. 884-888, 1980.
Klimenko V.V., UHF waves from polar ionosphere, Dissertation,
Irkutsk, 129 p., 2002.
Coincidence bursts in
Pustin and Ussuriisk
22.09.1970 ,  = 50 cm.
Solar chromospheric flare.
Troitskii V.S., 1973.
Pustin, Ural;
Ussuriisk, Far
East;
RUSSIA
Troitskii V.S., 1973
M.G. Grach et al.
Ann. Geoph,2002
The facility for
pumping of
ionosphere “Sura”
Russia.
Signal from an ionosphere on frequency~600 MHz
( = 50 cm) from heights ~190-270 km during and
after a heating by powerful short radiowaves ~6 MHz.
Authors (Grach et al.) interpretation
of experimental data as Rydberg excitation
by energetic ionospheric electrons
THE CITATION (2002):
 “A more credible mechanism of the emission generation
conditioned by the electron acceleration is related to the
EXCITATION of the high RYDBERG STATES of the
neutrals (atom O and molecule N2) by electron impact, and
the transition of electrons between high Rydberg levels.”
 “A similar mechanism of UHF/VHF generation, namely
the EXCITATION of the high RYDBERG STATES of
atmospheric gases by photoelectrons, is attracted by
Avakyan et al. (1997) for an interpretation of sporadic
UHF/VHF radio emission of the ionosphere.”
The cloudiness every day after the X-ray solar flares
(satellite regisration)
/A. Dmitriev,, E Lomakina, 1977- in Russian/
The cloudiness
(balls) every day
after the X-ray
solar flares satellite regisration
/A. Dmitriev, 1987in Russian/
1 – FLARES >C5,
2 - FLARES > M1.5-2,
3 - FLARES > M2.5-4.5
"CП"-NORTH Hemisphere
"ЮП” -SOUTH Hemisphere
"СА"–USA (CENTER and
EAST)
Variations of the cirrus
cloudiness after coming of Solar
cosmic rays (SCR)
0 – day of the SCR bigining,
1 – latitude 52,6 ,
2 – latitude 46,4.
Number of X-ray solar flaxes
0 – day of the SCR bigining,
Minus 1 -2 days – days of the
Solar Flares bigining
S.V.Veretenenko, M.I.Pudovkin
1996
Results of the influence of solargeomagnetic events at a pressure P
and temperature T at October, 2003
(H=2100m)
Solar flare (type M4 ) resulted in a
decrease in P (9 cases, or 82 %),
though in two cases the pressure
increased. Dramatic dips in P at the
end of 28 and 29 October were
apparently related to two powerful
events of coming of solar cosmic rays,
28 at 12:20 UT and, 29 at 00:03 UT.
Such events are increase cloudiness,
which, as a rule,results in decline inP.
Anomalously strong Forbus effect 29
October (14-16 UT) result increase P.
Magnetic storms (Kpр5) acts in the
troposphere in the same way as a
flare (due to an increase in
perturbation of the ionosphere under
the influence of electrons
precipitating from radiation belts).
Respectively, increase in T in 16 out
of 19 observed events (84 %).
G. A. Nikol'sky et al., 2014
In the paper (Bogdanov, M.B., A.N. Surkov, A.V. Fedorenko (2006),
“Effect of cosmic rays on atmospheric pressure at high altitudes”.
Geomagn. Aeron., 46 (2), 268-274.) on the Alps (in the altitude
3475 m, mount Jungfraujoch) also were the data about influence of
solar flares on the decreasing of tropospheric pressure.
.
Designated: 1 - period 1983 to 1985/7 years: the growth of clouds due to the increase
in short-solar activity and an increase in the aa index of geomagnetic activity, as well
as the world's number of magnetic storms, and 2 - the period c 1987 to 2000: the fall of
EUV flux solar radiation [84] and the number of solar flares, 3 - from 2000 to 2003 :
growth aa-index, continued until the end of 2003, 4 - from 2004: the overall decline of
aa index of global magnetic storms and short electromagnetic activity of the Sun.
Cloudiness, %
Comparison between variations of the global total (TC) and upper
(UC) cloudiness and of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). Positive
correlation is obtained for (UC - 93%) and for (TC - lower (81%).
Solar x-rays flares>=M4 and Solar cosmic rays
(>10 MeV) at the 1975-2003.
/Belov et al., 2005 /
Shown are variations in the current total energy
flux of EUV solar photons (Lean, 2005).
aa -index
30
20
10
0
1900
1920
1940
1960
Years
1980
2000
aa- INDEX HAS BEEN GOING UP TILL 2003 (+ 0.6 % / YEAR).
AFTER NOV., 2003, GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY ALSO as EUV
STARTED DECREASING VERY FASTLY AND BEFORE THE
LEVEL NEAR VALUES OF aa-INDEX FOR 1900 YEAR.
Globally-averaged 5-yr mean low (blue) and
mid+high (red) cloud amount 1985 / 2004.
(P. Goode, E. Palle, JASTP, 2007)
VARIOUS ROLE CLOUDINESS IN GLOBAL
WARMING:
“The net radiative properties of a cloud are
mainly depend on its altitude and optical
thickness. Optically-thin clouds at high and
middle altitudes cause a net warming due to
their relative transparency at short
wavelengths but opacity in the IR region,
whereas thick clouds produce a net cooling
due to the dominance of the increased albedo
of short-wave solar radiation”. (J. Kirkby, A.
Laaksonen, 2000).
THE MAIN AGENT OF GLOBAL WARMING
- OPTICALLY THIN CLOUDINESS
- This condensation-cluster haze - largely similar
thin cirrus clouds (which are defined as
"invisible", "transparent", "subvisual“).
- All these definitions the authors attributed to the
type of WARMING CLOUDS as with virtually
passing shortwave (visible) solar radiation such
clouds and condensation-cluster smoke (haze),
have the ability to create a greenhouse effect,
since about half of the delayed flow of heat
radiation of the underlying ground.
This means that negative trends have come both FOR
SOLAR and GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITIES after 1985/7 .
We suppose that according to our mechanism the modern
natural global climate changes will go down to lower levels.
/Avakyan, S.V., Voronin, N.A.2010.
On the radiooptical and optical mechanisms
of influence of cosmic factors on the global warming //
J.Optical Technology-OSA, №2/
But may be the influence of the OCEAN DAMPING make
the LAG at the 15 – 18 years
/Pokrovsky O.M., 2010/
Irradiance is the total solar energy flux received at the
top of the Earth’s atmosphere (Frohlich, 2006, 2009).
The results of measurements of water vapor in the column of the
atmosphere at high altitude (average value) and our approximation
detectable trend
Total column atmospheric water vapor time variation in Texas (USA)
Temperature Anomalies, C
Our results indicate that
the global cloudiness is
basically driven by the
variations of the solargeomagnetic activity,
while TCAWV - second
order factor in the
formation of clouds,
since the abundance of
water vapor is, as a rule,
sufficient for that .
Global ocean temperature anomalies, C (ISCCP). In [Pokrovskii,
2012], a striking inconsistency is noted between the decrease in
the global cloudiness with the simultaneous increase in the
temperature of the ocean surface (apparently accompanied with
the increase in vaporization from the surface of water) and the
existing mechanisms of cloud formation.
Changes of global outgoing radiation in the period 1984 – 2003:
Increasing for thermal – on 15 W/m2 , decreasing for shortwave
(visual) – on 10 %.
EVOLUTION OF THE EARTH TOTAL RADIATION BALANCE
IN 1985 – 2003 (GOLOVKO, 2003):
- growth of the value of outgoing long wave radiation
amounts to approximately 15 W/m2
- the value of outgoing short wave radiation reduced by
approximately 10 W/m2.
These facts agree with our estimations of radiooptical
mechanism effects. Indeed reduction of total cloudiness from
Solar activity maximum in 1985/87 to 2000 amounts to 4 – 5
%. At mean cloudiness albedo equal to 0.5 – 0.8 and taking
into account the Earth sphericity we have
342 W/m2x(0.04 - 0.05)x(0.5 – 0.8) = 6.8 – 13.7 W/m2.
This is the evaluative value which corresponds to the
decrease of the flow of outgoing short wave radiation. Its
mean value is just 10 W/m2 which is in agreement with
results of satellite data processing, made in (Golovko, 2003).
“Energetics of the modern climate changes”
2).Basing on analysis of satellite data on total global
cloud cover and global energy balance the
contribution of secular maximum of solargeomagnetic activity to the global warming of
the last decades has been determined. It
constitutes 7 Wm–2.
This value exceeds contribution:
of the deforestation (6.3 Wm–2 -S. Gorshkov, 2010),
of the greenhouse effect (2.63Wm–2 - IPCC),
of the variations of “TSI” (less than 0.4 Wm–2).
Consequently “anomalous growth of the
outgoing long-wave radiation” in our opinion
(according to the radio-optical mechanism)
testifies not to “the steady global warming
(Golovko, 2003)” but quite the contrary to
the decrease of contribution of the thin
cloudiness which warms up lower
atmosphere and hence to the decrease of the
role which secular maximum of solar activity
plays in global warming.
ENERGETICS OF ANTHROPOGENIC AND RADIATION
INFLUENCE ON THE EARTH CLIMATE DURING THE
PRESENT SECULAR MAXIMUM OF SOLAR ACTIVITY:
According to our estimations we can assume that secular
decrease of solar activity since 1985/86 and of geomagnetic
activity since 2004 leads to the decrease of the energy of
radiation influence on the Earth climate owing to the
growth of the heat outgoing to space by 15 W/m2
(Golovko, 2003). This value:
- is 6 times as much as the effect of greengases 2.63 W/m2,
- 2.3 times exceeds the effect of forest cutting down which
sums up to 6.3 W/m2 (Gorshkov, 2010),
- is 15 times as mush as declared contribution of TSI (up
to 1 W/m2 in various solar cycles)
- 3 – 6 times exceeds the range of effective flows (2.5 – 5
W/m2) for the circulation changes (Borisenkov et al, 1989)
CONCLUSION for this section
 The novel physical mechanism for natural global
climate changes is considered. The mechanism
enables factors of solar and geomagnetic activities
together affect low-atmospheric processes: with
help of the ionospheric microwave fluxes which are
generated during solar flares and magnetic storms.
 It is here very important for climatic changes,
that the MAXIMUM OF SECULAR (quasi 100-yr
and quasi 200-yr) CYCLE SOLAR ACTIVITY
WAS OBSERVED IN EIGHTIES XX CENTURY
 WE SUPPOSED THAT THESE EFFECTS MAY
RESULT in SLOWING DOWN of GLOBAL WARMING in
the NEAR FUTURE,Avakyan,Voronin,J.Opt.Techn. 2010,№2
Two possibilities are discussed concerning the use of data on solargeomagnetic activity for meteorological forecasting (cloudiness,
temperature and precipitation). The first possibility is consideration
of quasicyclic recurrence of large solar flares and geomagnetic
storms with periods of 2 – 5 years.
Meteorologists and even geophysicists have found no significant
correlation between atmospheric parameters and either number of
solar spots or variations of solar constant. It was found that
temperature did not display any variability with the 11-year period (the
basic solar cycle). Instead stable quasi-periodic variations of
temperature of air within 2 – 5.5 years and also for the precipitation
periods in the interval 2 to 6 years were observed. Each 11-year cycle
displays two-three maxima for the probability of solar X-ray and
extreme UV flares and for probability of medium and strong
geomagnetic storms (2 to 4 years for the flares and 2 to 6 years for
significant magnetic storms), and those induced by solar flares, the
latter, as a rule, between the maximum points of the number of
geomagnetic storms.
For the periods shorter than one year the second possibility is taking
into account the positive correlation of total global cloud cover
with the total solar irradiance (TSI) - the contribution of short
wave radiation of faculae fields. From the data about these fields,
on the basis of the known statistics for the lifetime of this
formation in the solar photosphere, it is possible to forecasting
the variation of cloud and consequently the thermal radiative
balance of the Earth (the temperature anomalies) for several
months ahead. The physics of this manifestations of the effect
"solar signal" on the troposphere is also related with our radiooptical three-stage trigger mechanism. The microwave radiation
generated by ionosphere (by RYDBERG –inflated, blown up atoms
and molecules) under the influence of the increased ionizing
fluxes of the during solar flares affects the cluster condensation
process of origination and further evolution of optically thin
clouds. These clouds cause a net warming due to their relative
transparence at short waves but opacity in the IR region - the
thermal radiation coming out from the underlying
surface.
There is two - three maxima
of SOLAR X-rays FLARES during 23-th solar cycle
There is two - three maxima of
large geomagnetic storms during 23-th solar cycle
Spectral analysis for temperature at Oslo
Температура воздуха в Осло по (Benestad, 2002)
Осадки в Осло, Норвегия (по Benestad, 2002)
Spectral analysis for temperature at
St.Petersburg (2) and Moscow (1)
По В.И.Колесниковой и А.С. Монину, 1989
“Energetics of the modern climate changes”
3).Two possibilities are discussed concerning the use of the
data on solar-geomagnetic activity for meteorological
forecast (cloudiness, temperature and precipitation).
The first possibility is consideration of quasicyclic
recurrence of large solar flares and geomagnetic storms
with periods of 2 – 5 years. For the periods shorter than
one year the second possibility is taking into account:
the negative correlation of total global cloud cover with
the number of solar spots and positive correlation with
the contribution of short wave radiation of faculae
fields to the total solar irradiance (TSI).
Annual cycle (for five-day stretches) of air temperature anomalies
(dT) and the total (general) cloudiness (dCl) in all RUSSIA for 1991
– 2004, relative to averages for 1966 - 1990. [Sherstyukov, 2008].
Variations in the warm half-year (for five-day stretches) of air
temperature anomalies (dT) and the total (general) cloudiness (dCl),
in magnitudes for 1991 – 2004, relative to averages for 1966 – 1990,
for stations of Russia in the latitude zone 50 - 70 [Sherstyukov,
2008].
Proposal to
INTERNATIONAL SCIENCE AND
TECHNOLOGY CENTER (2008 – 2009):
S.V. Avakyan, N.A. Voronin, A.V. Troitsky
"The microwave response of the
ionosphere to the solar flares and
geomagnetic storms and its influence on
the weather and climatic phenomena"
26 May 2008 approved without funding
(http://tech-db.istc.ru/ISTC/sc.nsf/html/projects.htm?open&id=3878).
Clearly that the bottom pair of spectra has many narrow
telluric lines. This line of molecular water H2O, and in the
upper pair of spectra in 12.04 UT (2.04.2001, during
solar flare X1) are absent. This suggests that an increase of
the level solar activity in the troposphere strongly
decreases the concentration of water molecules. Low
spectrum in 10.41 UT 25.10.2004, when was not flare.
Advancing space weather science
to protect
society's technological infrastructure:
COSPAR/ILWS roadmap, Moscow2014
(Summarized by Karel Schrijvier, Lockheed Martin, USA)
HIGHEST – PRIORITY RECOMMENDATIONS
“Partner with climate/weather stakeholders” to improve
understanding of the couplings between weather and spaceweather
variability and to quantify potential climate impacts by space
weather; to transfer “lessons learned” from the climate/weather
communities on data assimilation and ensemble modeling and the
development of forecasts and their standards based on that.
What is it?
We can read in the Proceedings Solar-terrestrial influence on
Weather and Climate, Eds. D.M. McCormac, T.A. Seliga,
Dordrecht London, 1982, in the main paper (W.O. Roberts Aspen Institute of Humanistic Studies, Boulder, USA): About
links of weather and climate with solar phenomena (Review)
there is (citation): "At the discovery of the mechanism of influence
at the problem "Sun - Weather" will be "perspectives of artificial
large scales changes of weather and climate"".
We can read very mysterious situation with the description of "the
microwave contribution to controlling the global weather and
hurricanes" Hoffman, Ross N., 2002: Controlling The Global
Weather. Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc., 83, 241-248. and Scientific
American, October, 2012.
Therefore, the military society my be have
the interest to practice using our
radiooptical mechanism of microwave control
to weather-climate characteristics.
THANKS!
[email protected]
[email protected]
“It will be easier
to control the weather
than to forecast it”
Stanislav Lem,
Poland
First papers on the electron excitation of
Rydberg states in the terrestrial ionosphere
1. Avakyan S.V., "The new factor in the physics of solarterrestrial relations – Rydberg atomic and molecular
states", Conf. on Phys. of Solar-Terrestrial
relationships, Alma-Ata, p. 3-5, 1994.
2. Avakyan S.V., "New possible mechanism of sporadic
ionospheric radioemissions", 25th General Assembly of
URSI, 1996, France, G1: Ionospheric models and indices,
Abstracts, p.346.
3. Avakyan S.V., Voronin N.A., Serova A.E., "The role of
Rydberg atoms and molecules in the upper atmosphere",
Geomagnetism and aeronomy, 1997, vol. 37, № 3, pp.
331-335.
Avakyan S.V., Voronin N.A., Serova A.E., 1997.
The role of Rydberg atoms and molecules in the
upper atmosphere. Geomagnetism and Aeronomy
37 (3), 331-335.
Avakyan, S.V., Voronin, N.A., 2006. Possible
mechanisms for the influence of heliogeophysical
activity on the biosphere and the weather. Journal
of Optical Technology (OSA) 73 (4), 281-285.
Avakyan, S.V., Voronin, N.A., 2007. On possible
physical mechanism of solar and geomagnetic
activity impacts to phenomena in low atmosphere.
Issledov. Zemli iz Kosmosa (2), 28-33. (in Russian).
Avakyan, S.V., 2008. Physics of the solar-terrestrial
coupling: results, problems and new approaches.
Geomagnetism and Aeronomy 48 (4), 417-424.
S. V. Avakyan and N. A. Voronin, 2008. "Rydberg
microwave emission of ionosphere during
precipitation of electrons from the radiation belts
caused by radio transmitters." Journal of Optical
Technology (OSA) 75 (10), 687-688.
Avakyan, S.V., Voronin, N.A. 2010. On the
radiooptical and optical mechanisms of influence of
cosmic factors on the global warming. Journal of
Optical technology (OSA) 77 (2), 141-144.
Avakyan, S.V. and N.A. Voronin (2011), The role of
space and ionospheric disturbances in the global
climate change and pipeline corrosion. Izvestija,
Atmosferic and Oceanic Physics, Springer, 47(9),
1143-1158.
Avakyan, S.V. (2013a) The Role of Solar Activity in
Global Warming. Herald of the Russian Academy of
Sciences 83, 275-285.
Avakyan, S.V. (2013b) Problems of climate as a task
of optics. Journal of Optical Technology, Optical
Society of America 80, 717-721.
Общее количество облаков, %
70
69
68
67
66
65
64
63
1980
1990
Years
Годы
2000
2010
CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL CLOUDINESS:
 Decreased after 1985/87 to 2000 (with TSI and EUV / X-ray) and an
increase from 2000 to 2004 (still growing as aa-index)
 Since 2004, it decreases as aa-index, although the GCR - is increased.
CHANGES IN THE GLOBAL CLOUDINESS:
 the global cloud cover showed decrease from
1985/87 to 2000 and increase from 2000 to 2004
(Palle et al, 2006).
 Since 2004 the global cloud cover as well as aaindex are decreasing Reduction of the global cloud
cover observed till 2000 also can be explained
according to our mechanism by decrease of the solar
EUV fluxes (Lean, 2005). Indeed, this decrease
reduces ionospheric microwave flux that results in
reduction of the water vapour cluster concentration
and that in turn increases the observed total content
of water vapour in the atmospheric depth.
CONCLUSION for this section
 The novel physical mechanism for natural global
climate changes is considered. The mechanism
enables factors of solar and geomagnetic activities
together affect low-atmospheric processes: with
help of the ionospheric microwave fluxes which are
generated during solar flares and magnetic storms.
 It is here very important for climatic changes,
that the MAXIMUM OF SECULAR (quasi 100-yr
and quasi 200-yr) CYCLE SOLAR ACTIVITY
WAS OBSERVED IN EIGHTIES XX CENTURY
 WE SUPPOSED THAT THESE EFFECTS MAY
RESULT in SLOWING DOWN of GLOBAL WARMING in
the NEAR FUTURE
EXPERIMENTAL EVIDENCES
of THE IONOSPHERIC DISTURBANCES
ABOVE THE TRANSMISSIONS
 We are based on analysis on intensity of the
stimulated electronic precipitations which are
comparable with the precipitations during the
geomagnetic storms (DEMETER data, 2005).
 Intensity of precipitations corresponds to the
main phase of geomagnetic storm and make the
aurora of IBC II. That aurora observed over the
radio transmitters on the satellite
INTERCOSMOS Bulgaria-1300, 1982.
ANTHROPOGENIC CONTRIBUTION
of RADIOOPTICAL TRIGGER MECHANISM
to SOLAR –WEATHER and CLIMATE LINKS
 ACCORDING TO RESULTS OF INVESTIGATION
THESE SIMULATED PRECIPITATIONS OF
ELECTRONS TO IONOSPHERE SHOULD CAUSE
EXCITATION OF RYDBERG STATES WITH THE
CORRESPONDING EMISSION OF MICROWAVE
RADIATION WITH INTENSITY up to 10–12 – 10–11 W
сm–2, that IS NEAR to flux during large magnetic STORM.
 Since radio and VLF transmitters are both products of the
industrial activity of 20-th century probably it is necessary
to take into account their geography and working regime
when research solar-weather and solar-climate phenomena.
NOVEL RADIOOPTICAL TRIGGER MECHANISM
is proposed for solar-weather relations. According to
this mechanism, both solar EUV/X-ray radiation and
corpuscular radiations during solar and geomagnetic
events EXCITE THE RYDBERG STATES OF UPPER
ATMOSPHERE NEUTRAL CONSTITUENTS BY
THE IMPACT OF ENERGETIC IONOSPHERIC
ELECTRONS. The emission from these states is in the
microwave range and penetrates freely from
ionospheric heights to the lower atmosphere. There, via
a complicated chain of processes involving creation and
destruction of water clusters, this emission influences
the water vapour content and cloudiness, both being a
substantial parts of weather formation.
the global cloud cover showed decrease from
1985/87 to 2000 and increase from 2000 to 2004
(Palle et al, 2006).
Since 2004 the global cloud cover as well as aaindex are decreasing Reduction of the global cloud
cover observed till 2000 also can be explained
according to our mechanism by decrease of the solar
EUV fluxes (Lean, 2005). Indeed, this decrease
reduces ionospheric microwave flux that results in
reduction of the water vapour cluster concentration
and that in turn increases the observed total content
of water vapour in the atmospheric depth.
This mechanism is involved into investigation of
climate changes going on during the several past
decades.
 Since 1985 the total solar irradiance flux started
decreasing with simultaneous decreasing of ionizing
EUV/X-ray radiation. However the geomagnetic
activity according to the aa-index kept growing till
2003. This growth (+ 0.6 % per year since 1965)
was replaced also by fast decline only after 2003.
 WE SUPPOSED THAT THESE EFFECTS MAY RESULT in
SLOWING DOWN of GLOBAL WARMING in the NEAR
FUTURE
Rydberg atom
Ionization Potential
Radioemissions
of Oxygen Atom
Rydberg levels
ni
(ni > 10)
l = (from (ni  1) to 0)
n1
Resonance level
n0
Ground level
dm radioemission:
n = 0 at n = 20-40
cm radioemission:
n = 1 at n = 10-20
mm radioemission:
n > 1 at n > 10
LOW CLOUDNESS at DAYS (green), TSI (red),
GCR (black) - (Kristjansson e.a.,2004)