Transcript Radiation Hazard in Space: Extreme Fluxes in Solar

Extreme Fluxes in Solar
Energetic Particle Events
© 2013 Leonty I. Miroshnichenko (IZMIRAN,
SINP) and Rikho A. Nymmik (SINP)
N.V. Pushkov Institute of Terrestrial
Magnetism, Ionosphere and Radio
Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN),
Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS)
D.V. Skobeltsyn Institute of Nuclear
Physics (SINP), M.V. Lomonosov
Moscow State University (MSU),
Moscow
“Physics of Plasma in the Solar System”, Space
Research Institute, Russian Academy of Sciences,
Moscow, Russia, 5 February 2013
Abstract
• We analyze the data available on the largest solar proton events
(SPEs), or extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) events, for the
period from 1561 up to now. Under consideration are observational,
methodical and physical problems related to presentation of proton
fluxes (fluences) near the Earth in the form of their energy spectra.
Special attention is paid to the study of the form of distribution
function for extreme fluxes (fluences) of SEPs by their sizes.
Distribution of extremely large SEP fluxes is shown to have a
probabilistic nature, so that a formulation “limit flux” does not
contain a strict physical sense.
• The SEP fluxes may be only characterized by quite certain
probabilities of their appearance, with a sharp break of the
spectrum in the range of large fluences (or low probabilities).
Modern data of observations and methods of investigations do not
allow, for the present, to resolve precisely the problem of spectrum
break and estimate maximum potentialities of solar accelerator(s).
This restricts considerably an extrapolation of obtained results for
the past and future, for the epochs with different levels of solar
activity.
L.I. Miroshnichenko, R.A. Nymmik. Extreme fluxes in Solar Energetic Particle events:
Methodical and physical limitations – Submitted to Radiation Measurements, 2012.
Motivations/Goals
• To plan and design safe and reliable pace missions,
it is necessary to take into account the effects of the
space radiation environment. The environment
during large solar energetic particle (SEP) events
poses greatest challenge to space missions. As a
starting point for planning and design, a reference
environment must be specified representing the
most challenging environment to be encountered
during the mission at some confidence level. The
engineering challenge is then to find plans and
mission design solutions that insure safe and
reliable operations in this reference environment
(e.g., Adams et al., 2011).
Prerequisites and data
•
•
•
•
Bioeffectivity of cosmic rays
Occurrence rate of Supernova (SN) bursts
Occurrence rate of large solar flares (LSF)
Comparison of relative contribution of SN
bursts and LSF into near-Earth radiation
environment
• Recent data on large solar proton events (SPE)
• Probability of extreme SPEs in the past
• Cosmic rays and evolution of the biosphere
Radiation impact on the biostructures
Bioeffectivity of CR in Space
Tracks from heavy nuclei on the inside of an Apollo helmet (Comstock
et al., 1971): A - a track from a particle entering the helmet; B – ending
track from a particle that crossed from the opposite side of the
helmet and come to rest.
Light Flashes in the Cosmonaut’s Eyes
Visual picture of the light flashes in the cosmonauts’ eyes that were
observed during different space missions of 1969-1999 (Pogorely,
2001). Correlation with the passages of CR nuclei. Project ALTEA
onboard ISS (Avdeyev et al., 2002).
Metachromasy and neutrons
•
Results of the one-way ANOVA of statistical dependence of the metachromasy
index for volutin granules in yeast cells, on the intensity of cosmic rays (neutron
monitor data, arbitrary units). On the abscissa axis is an index of metachromasy.
On the ordinate axis are the mean values ​of cosmic ray intensity (in counts). The
95% confidence intervals are marked (Gromozova et al., 2010).
Cell cultures and neutrons
•
Dynamics of the polynuclei index PCN (relative units by ordinate axis) for
cell crops in lines L, CHO, and FHM in October 1989. At the abscissa axis a
time is given (in hours) from the beginning of the experiment (22:30 UT of
15 October). Figures at the curves are the moments of fixation (in hours) of
laboratory preparations corresponding to increasing of PCN index Belisheva
et al., 2006)
Past flares: Nitrate signals
Nitrate concentrations in ice core samples taken in Antarctica (Figure courtesy of
G.A.M. Dreschhoff and E.J. Zeller). 24 September 1909 - observed flare; 7-8 July 1928
Major geomagnetic disturbance; 25 July 1946 – white-light flare and GLE04; the peaks in
1959 and 1972 coincides with large solar proton fluences (Shea and Smart, 1996).
Nitrate trace of Flare_1859
In early September in
1859, telegraph wires
suddenly shorted out in
the United States and
Europe, igniting
widespread fires. Colorful
aurora, normally visible
only in polar regions,
were seen as far south as
Rome and Hawaii.
The event was three
times more powerful
than the strongest
space storm in modern
memory, one that cut
power to an entire
Canadian province in
1989.
Nitrate data by
G.E. Kocharov
(Soros Journal,
1999)
White light solar flare of 1 September 1859:
Carrington, R. C.: 1860, Monthly Notices Royal
Astron. Soc. 20, 13; Hodgson, R.: 1860, Monthly
Notices Royal Astron. 20, 15.
A new account of the 1859 event, from research led
by Bruce Tsurutani of NASA's Jet Propulsion
Laboratory, details the most powerful onslaught of
solar energy in recorded history. The Great Storm:
Solar Tempest of 1859 Revealed at SPACE.com
Largest fluences
• Largest historical event of 1859:
• Φ(≥30 MeV) = 1.88×10^10 cm^(-2)
• List of the largest SEP events (1561-1950):
7.1×10^9 (1605); 8.0×10^9 (1619); 6.1×10^9
(1637); 7.4×10^9 (1719); 6.3×10^9 (1727);
6.4×10^9 (1813); 9.3×10^9 (1851); 1.88×10^10
(1859); 7.0×10^9 (1864);7.7×10^9 (1894);
1.11×10^10 (1896) – in total 11 events above
Φ(≥30 MeV) = 6×10^9 (all from Greenland ice
core).
• McCracken, K.G., Dreschhoff, G.A.M., Zeller, E.J., Smart, D.F., and
Shea, M.A., 2001. Solar cosmic ray events for the period 1561-1994.
1. Identification in polar ice, 1561-1950. J. Geophys. Res. 106,
No.A10, 21585-21598.
Nitrate concentration in the South Pole core representing ~1200 years (a), and
the time equivalent upper part of the Vostok core (b). Historical SNe are
indicated for the respective nitrate anomalies. Minimum errors (~10 years for
South Pole record; ~30 years for Vostok record) are indicated by error bars
(Dreschhoff and Laird, 2006).
SN explosions in Galaxy (the past 1000 y)
Distance,
pc
CR energy,
erg
1100
~ 5·10 48
Supernova
Year
Supernova
1006
Taurus - А
(Crab nebula)
1054
Supernova
1181
Tycho Brage
1572
360
~ 3·10 46
Kepler
1604
1000
~ 6·10 46
Cassiopeya - А
~1750
3400
~ 7·10 49
SN 1987A: Outside Milky Way
• SN 1987A was a SN in the outskirts of the Tarantula
Nebula in the Large Magellanic Cloud, a nearby dwarf
galaxy. It occurred approximately 51.4 kps from Earth,
approximately 168,000 lys, close enough that it was
visible to the naked eye. It could be seen from the
Southern Hemisphere. It was the closest observed SN
since SN 1604, which occurred in the Milky Way itself.
• The light from the new SN reached Earth on February 23,
1987. As it was the first SN discovered in 1987, it was
labeled “1987A”. Its brightness peaked in May with an
apparent magnitude of about 3 and slowly declined in
the following months. It was the first opportunity for
modern astronomers to see a SN up close and
observations have provided much insight into corecollapse SNe.
• P.S. Last SN in our Galaxy (Cassiopeya - А) has flashed
out in 1750. For the past 250 years we should observe ~
8 SN bursts.
Cosmic rays near the Earth’s orbit
from SN bursts and solar flares
Integral occurrence rate of
SCR events at given
energy density at the
Earth’s orbit (top plots).
Estimates of ionization
contribution from SN
gamma-flash (bottom plots)
at the distance of 10 parsec
from the Earth (flash) and
from protons for the
periods of Earth’s stay in
SN remnant during 3 years
(3 yr) and during all the
time (all time).
Wdowczyk and Wolfendale,
1977.
Ionization effects from energetic
particles (GCR and SCR) and
electromagnetic emissions (Xand gamma rays from SNe).
SCR flux and fluence
Integral proton fluences at the Earth’s orbit (left part) and intensity-time
profiles of proton fluxes at Ep > 100 MeV for the largest SPEs
registered in 1956-2005 [Mewaldt et al., 2007].
Solar Cosmic Rays: Upper Limit Spectrum
A rounding curve 15
corresponds to the
hypothetical Upper Limit
Spectrum (ULS) for solar
cosmic rays (SCR), or
solar energetic particles SEPs (Miroshnichenko,
2003). Integral spectrum
for galactic cosmic rays
above 10^9 eV is also
shown (dotted line).
Maximum energy for
The integral energy spectra for the energetic solar particles
Е ≥ 100 GeV?
largest proton events observed
near the Earth in 1942-2000.
Energy spectrum of SEP fluences
Fluence #/cm**2
1E+12
1E+11
Carrington fluence
1E+10
1E+9
1E+8
1E+7
1E+6
1E+5
1E+4
1E+3
August 1972
1E+2
February 1956
1E+1
1E+0
November 1960
1E-1
1E-2
1E-3
1E-4
1E-1 1E+0 1E+1 1E+2 1E+3 1E+4 1E+5
MeV
• Differential energy
spectrum of the
fluences for
Carrington event
(solid line), with
expected maximum
and minimum
deviations (dashed
lines). Also are
shown the fluence
spectra for large
proton events in
February 1956,
November 1960 and
August 1972 (Wilson
et al., 1999).
New SEP fluence data
Distribution function
of SEP events on the
fluences Φ(≥30 MeV)
by measurements
onboard the satellites
IMP-8 and GOES in
the solar cycles 21-23
(red points) and by
Greenland ice core
data (blue points) for
the pre-space era. The
probabilities of 15
November 1960 and 4
August 1972 events
are also shown (green
points). Solid line
marks an
approximation (3),
with corresponding
root mean square
deviations (dashed
lines).
1E+1
21-23 SA cycle events
1E+0
1E-1
Probability
•
1E-2
1E-3
19-23 SA cycle
Nov. 1960 and Aug 1972
Greenland
ice events
1E-4
1E-5
1E-6
1E-7
1E+6
1E+7 1E+8 1E+9 1E+10 1E+11
Fluence (E>30 MeV) #/cm**2
Integral energy spectra
Peak flux #/(cm**2*s*sr)
1E+7
1E+6
A
1E+5
1E+4
B
1E+3
1E+2
1E+1
1E+0
1E-1
1E-2
1E-3
1E-4
1E-5
1E-6
1E-7
1E-8
1E-9
1E-10
1E-1 1E+0 1E+1 1E+2 1E+3 1E+4 1E+5
MeV
• Integral energy
spectrum of peak
proton fluxes for
the Carrington
event on average
(blue line with the
stars with dashed
lines for the rootmean-square
deviations).
• Red line (points) –
Upper Limit
Spectrum for SCR
(ULS)
(Miroshnichenko,
1994, 1996); green
triangles – ULS,
corrected in the
present work.
Model dependencies
• In the context of this study, also deserve serious attention the
estimates of the proton fluences at some other energies (besides
30 MeV), especially, for the understanding of flare (proton) activity
of the Sun in the remote past. Many years ago, Wdowczyk and
Wolfendale (1977) addressed the question on the long-term
frequency of large solar energy releases and their possible effects,
compared with other catastrophic events. The main body of their
evidence appears still valid, although some details have changed.
The very flat integral power-law fits (logarithmic slope around -0.5)
suggest that several dramatic solar energy releases should be
expected in geologically short times, if the trend continues.
Extrapolating their highest energies (>60 MeV) fit to long time
scales, Kiraly and Wolfendale (1999) obtained some another
estimates. It turns out that while the highest fluence measured up
to now (in about 30 years) was 310^9 cm^-2, one would expect in
1 My a few events above 10^12 cm^-2, and in 100 My a few above
10^13 cm^-2. This is far less than one would expect from flat
slopes found by Wdowczyk and Wolfendale (1977), but still about
two orders of magnitude higher than it follows from our estimates.
Fluence extrapolation to the past
• In fact, according to modern data on proton fluences at the energy ≥30
MeV, for the period from 1973 up to 2008 there were registered 205
events with the fluence ≥10^6 cm^-2 (Nymmik, 2011c). If solar activity
remains at modern (present) level, it means that for 1 My and 100 My,
respectively, we may expect for 6×10^6 and 6×10^8 of such events, and
the probabilities of their realization would be ~ 1.7×10^-7 and ~1.7×10^9, respectively. According to our estimates (Fig.9), for such long periods
the events may appear with the fluences up to 6×10^10 and 10^11
сm^(-2), respectively, that is for 1.5-2 orders of magnitude lesser that
the estimates by Kiraly and Wolfendale (1999).
• Difference in the energies of protons (30 and 60 MeV) makes this
discrepancy even much more. The cause of this discrepancy is rather
simple. As it was repeatedly noted (Nymmik 2006, 2007a,b, 2011),
lognormal distribution function of SEP events (Feynman et al., 1993)
that was applied by Kiraly and Wolfendale (1999), by no means does
reflect a physical essence of SEP event distribution in the range of large
fluences. Parameters of the model by Feynman et al. (1993) are
determined mainly by subjective (random) magnitudes of the
registration thresholds and selection of small SEP events; therefore,
they can not serve for the extrapolation of the data into the range of
extremely large events.
Probabilities of extreme events
• Distribution function
of SEP events on
1E+0
the fluences of
1E-1
Φ(≥30 MeV): points
with the statistical
1E-2
errors –
A B
1E-3
measurement data
onboard the
1E-4
spacecraft IMP-8
and GOES; blue
1E-5
diamonds –
1E-6
estimates by the
data from Greenland
1E-7
ice core; solid red
1E-8
line – distribution
function (3);
1E-9
triangles – our
1E-10
estimates of Φ(≥30
MeV) by Kiraly and
1E-11
Wolfendale (1999)
1E+6 1E+7 1E+8 1E+9 1E+101E+111E+121E+13
data; segment АВ =
Fluence #/cm**2
7.2.
Probability
1E+1
Conclusions
• Thus, we obtained a number of physical and
methodical limitations that are important for the
estimations and predictions of radiation hazardous
SCR fluxes. The technique developed on the base of
new ideas on the particle fluxes and their intrinsic
features enables us also to consider by new the
problem of “limit” values that characterize the SEP
fluxes at different energies in the present epoch. At
the same time, we do not pretend to give some final
values of our quantitative estimates that can be
specified when some new observational data come.
Acknowledgements
• This work is partially supported by RAS_28 Program of
Fundamental Research “Problems of the life origin and
formation of the biosphere” (Russian Academy of
Sciences).
• В.Н. Обридко, Л.И. Мирошниченко, М.В. Рагульская,
О.В. Хабарова, E.Г. Храмова, М.М. Кацова, М.А.
Лившиц. Космические факторы эволюции
биосферы: Новые направления исследований. Проблемы эволюции биосферы. Серия «Геобиологические системы в прошлом». М.:
Палеонтологический Институт (ПИН) РАН, 2013.
С. 66–94 (Труды конференции, посвящённой
памяти академика Г.А. Заварзина, 21-22 марта 2012
г.).
• http://www.paleo.ru/institute/files/biosphere.pdf
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Jordan, W.R., Jones, T.D., Chang, C.K., and Kim, M.Y., 1999. Shielding
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Contact information
• Dr. LEONTY I. MIROSHNICHENKO
• Sector of Helio-Ecological Relations
• Department of Physics of SolarTerrestrial Relations, N.V. Pushkov
Institute IZMIRAN, Troitsk, Moscow
Region, PB 142190, RUSSIA
• Phone: 007(495)851-02-82; 007(495)93958-68; 007(495)851-23-61
• Fax: 007(495)851-01-24
• E-mail: [email protected]