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Sustainable Buildings: Performance, Users, Investors Piet Eichholtz Maastricht University Studium Generale, October “Green” building in the marketplace? Top-10 “green” commercial office markets Commercial property and “green” investments Industry can play crucial role in reducing carbon emissions • Property industry consumes resources and pollutes • • • 40% of global consumption raw materials (even 55% of wood) At least 30% of global CO2 emissions Energy represents 7–9% of total occupancy cost • Many energy-efficiency investments in property have positive net present value … • • • Better insulation, technology, and building management all create shareholder value at current energy prices (McKinsey, 2009) First evidence shows very high IRR’s for energy investments Academic studies show indirect returns on “green” or energy efficiency • … so “green” property investments often do not conflict with financial goals of (institutional) investors Do we still see economic effects of green labels? Investment dynamics and the source of green increments Sample of 28,000 office buildings (2009 cross section), 3,000 of which are certified by EPA or USGBC 1. New evidence on the economic premium for green office buildings Rigorous control for quality differences (PSM) Label vintage 2. Identify the sources of rent and value increments Explicit link to leading building-level sustainability labels LEED and Energy Star How do we measure greenness? LEED and Energy Star LEED The program has been initiated by the US Green Building Council (USGBC). LEED covers six different components of sustainability, including energy performance and material selection. Lower operating costs and healthier and safer working environments for occupants. Energy Star Founded in 1992 by the U.S. Environment Protection Agency (EPA) and the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE). Energy star evaluates the efficiency of buildings‘ energy use with respect to a base building of similar size and quality. 35 percent less energy consumption and 35 percent less carbon dioxide emission than average uncertified building. Example: 101 California St, San Francisco Energy Star certified, LEED Gold Example: 101 California St, San Francisco Energy Star certified, LEED Gold Methodology How to further correct for differences in location and quality? Standard real estate valuation framework Rin is the rent, effective rent, or transaction price per sq.ft. Xi is a vector of hedonic characteristics Size, age, renovation, class, amenities, public transport, … Percent change in employment in service sector (CBSA) to control for regional variation in demand for office space Cluster cn dummies to control for location – 1,943 (744) separate dummies in the rental (transaction) sample gi = dummy variable if building i has green label Dummy variables for year of sale in transaction sample Findings and implications Eco-investment real estate sector is not only “doing good” Ceteris paribus, green buildings 1. 2. 3. 4. Have higher rents by 2-5% Have higher, and more stable, occupancy Have higher effective rents by 6-7% Have higher selling prices by 11-13% The average non-green building in the rental sample would be worth $5.6 M more if it were converted to green. The average non-green building sold in 2004-2009 would have been worth $11.1 M more if it had been converted to green. This suggests that property investors value the lower risk premium inherent in certified commercial office buildings The missing piece…what are the costs of “greening” properties? Further regression results There seems to be an optimal LEED rating Information on Energy Star-rated buildings Emissions are substantial, and energy savings create value Average emission of a building in our sample: 4,326 tons of CO2 750 cars, 9,000 barrels of oil, … Energy Star-rated buildings emit at least a quarter less carbon as compared to conventional office buildings A $1 saving in energy costs is associated with an increase in effective rent of 95 cents A $1 saving in energy costs is associated with a 4.9 percent premium in market capitalization, which is equivalent to $13/sq.ft. This implies a cap rate of about 8 percent Conclusions on building performance LEED and Energy Star labels seem to be complimentary Effects on rent and value still present despite economic crisis and increased supply of green office space The green value effects are systematically related to the underlying characteristics of energy efficiency or “sustainability” Market seems to be relatively efficient in pricing these aspects LEED and Energy Star measure somewhat different aspects of “sustainability” and complement each other Low correlation between LEED-score and EUI-score Low correlation between LEED score and energy consumption Why would users rent green (and pay more)? Theoretical framework 1. Direct economic benefits Lower service costs of housing by reduced energy costs Higher employee productivity 2. Indirect economic benefits: Improved reputation and image Investors – cost of capital Employees – labor market Customers – sales and prices 3. Ethical behavior “Do the right thing” Non-profit, government, and governmental organizations Green space utilization of major tenants Incidence of Green Space Utilization by Major Tenants Fraction office of Firm’s space Office Space Housed inin Green Buildings Fraction of firm’s housed green buildings Tenant Name Wells Fargo Bank United States Government Bank of America ABN AMRO State of California Deloitte & Touche Best Buy U.S. Dept. of Health & Human Sc. Shell Chevron Blue Cross & Blue Shield Adobe Systems Compuware Corporation American Express The Vanguard Group Cal/EPA Mitre Corporation JP Morgan Chase Skadden Ernst & Young (1) Space Occupied (2) Green Office Space Total Space CoStar Green as Fraction of Total Space CoStar x 1000 sq. ft. 2,741 2,415 2,124 1,724 1,568 1,554 1,500 1,442 1,362 1,229 1,211 1,158 1,094 1,018 990 950 944 907 889 864 x 1000 sq. ft. 7,343 14,631 18,695 2,993 5,706 5,131 2,104 1,662 3,989 6,181 12,251 1,388 1,300 6,754 1,569 950 1,293 10,670 1,751 4,149 % 37.33% 16.50% 11.36% 57.60% 27.49% 30.28% 71.31% 86.72% 34.14% 19.88% 9.89% 83.43% 84.18% 15.07% 63.07% 100.00% 73.02% 8.50% 50.77% 20.83% (3) Green space utilization per industry of Green Space Utilization by Industry Fraction of officeIncidence space located in green buildings Fraction of Office Space Housed in Green Buildings by Four-Digit SIC SIC Code Industry Description 8111 6021 9199 1311 6282 8721 5731 9311 7373 3812 2759 3069 4731 9621 7997 8641 2086 5411 4724 6552 Legal Services National Commercial Banks Executive, Legislative and General Office Crude Petroleum and Gas Investment Advice Accounting, Auditing, and Bookkeeping Services Radio, Television, and Consumer Electronics Stores Public Finance, Taxation, and Monetary Policy Computer Integrated Systems Design Search, Detection, Navigation, Guidance, … Commercial Printing, NEC Fabricated Rubber Products, NEC Arrangement Transportation of Freight and Cargo Regulations and Adm. of Transportation Programs Membership Sports and Recreation Clubs Civic, Social, and Fraternal Associations Bottled and Canned Soft Drinks, Carbonated Waters Grocery Stores Travel Agencies Land Subdividers and Developers, (1) Space Occupied (2) Green Office Space Total Office Space CoStar x 1000 sq. ft. 25,593 9,436 9,035 7,076 6,532 5,158 1,531 822 816 291 287 285 282 280 274 274 261 253 252 250 x 1000 sq. ft. 217,097 86,782 67,081 11,304 100,939 136,766 3,888 14,491 19,487 4,869 3,996 769 8,348 9,115 1,696 14,362 5,037 8,363 7,539 9,676 (3) Green as Fraction of Total Space CoStar % 11.79% 10.87% 13.47% 62.60% 6.47% 3.77% 39.37% 5.67% 4.19% 5.97% 7.17% 37.08% 3.38% 3.07% 16.15% 1.91% 5.19% 3.03% 3.34% 2.58% And what do property investors do? Portfolio greenness and the financial performance of REITs The aim of the paper is twofold: 1. Identify the green properties owned by Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) The first study that identifies the portfolio greenness of REITs 2. Investigate the effect of portfolio greenness on the financial performance of REITs Dynamic measure of portfolio greenness Two channels Benefits at property level Benefits from making CSR investments Causality issues Green buildings in the portfolios of US REITs 800 80 700 70 LEED 60 500 50 400 40 300 30 200 20 100 10 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 # of REITs owning Leed Certified Properties # of REITs owning Leed Registered Properties # of Leed Certified Properties # of Leed Registered Properties 1000 80 900 70 Energy Star 800 # of Properties # of REITs 600 700 60 600 50 500 40 400 30 300 20 200 10 100 0 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 # of REITs owning Energy Star Certified Properties 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 # of Energystar Certified Properties # of REITs # of Properties increasing number of green properties Model We estimate the following set of equations: where i stands for REIT i, and t stands for year t. Greenness stands for Number of Certified and Sqft of Certified properties for both LEED and Energy Star certifications. 2 instruments in the first stage: The weighted locational greenness (WLG) The weighted locational green policy (WLGPL) Financial Performance stands for ROA, ROE, Funds from Operations (FFO)/Total Revenue, Alpha and Beta Operating performance – ROA VARIABLES (1) (2) LEED LEED (3) Number_Certified 3.42*** Energy Star 0.90 (Predicted) [1.26] [0.61] (4) Energy Star Sqft_Certified 3.46* 0.31* (Predicted) [1.78] [0.18] Total Assets -0.33** -0.95** -0.73* -0.73 (in log) [0.15] [0.46] [0.40] [0.45] Price-Book Ratio -0.01 0.01 0.00 0.01 [0.01] [0.01] [0.01] [0.01] 0.01*** 0.01*** 0.01** [0.00] [0.00] [0.00] RE Investment Growth 0.01*** [0.00] Age 0.06*** 0.05** 0.07*** 0.06*** (years, in log) Year-Fixed Effects Property Type Constant Observations [0.02] [0.02] [0.02] [0.01] Y Y Y 972 Y Y Y 887 Y Y Y 972 Y Y Y 887 Operating performance – ROE VARIABLES (1) (2) LEED LEED (3) Number_Certified 7.92*** Energy Star 2.05 (Predicted) [2.99] [1.40] (4) Energy Star Sqft_Certified 7.39* 0.66* (Predicted) [3.83] [0.35] Total Assets -0.32 -1.05 -1.23 -0.56 (in log) [0.53] [0.72] [1.02] [0.62] Price-Book Ratio -0.02 0.00 -0.01 0.00 [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] [0.03] 0.03*** 0.04*** 0.03*** [0.01] [0.01] [0.01] RE Investment Growth 0.02*** [0.01] Age 0.09* 0.06 0.10** 0.08** (years, in log) Year-Fixed Effects Property Type Constant Observations [0.05] [0.06] [0.04] [0.04] Y Y Y 972 Y Y Y 887 Y Y Y 972 Y Y Y 887 Stock performance – Alpha VARIABLES (1) (2) LEED LEED (3) Number_Certified 0.043 Energy Star 0.031 (Predicted) [0.095] [0.028] (4) Energy Star Sqft_Certified 0.107 0.007 (Predicted) [0.144] [0.010] Total Assets -0.022* -0.046* -0.049* -0.035** (in log) [0.012] [0.027] [0.026] [0.017] Price-Book Ratio 0.000 0.001** 0.001* 0.001** [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.001] 0.001*** 0.001*** 0.001*** [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] RE Investment Growth 0.001*** [0.000] Age -0.000 -0.001 -0.000 -0.001 (years, in log) Year-Fixed Effects Property Type Constant Observations [0.001] [0.002] [0.001] [0.001] Y Y Y 716 Y Y Y 637 Y Y Y 716 Y Y Y 637 Stock performance – Beta VARIABLES (1) (2) LEED LEED (3) Number_Certified -0.140** Energy Star -0.034* (Predicted) [0.063] [0.019] (4) Energy Star Sqft_Certified -0.173 -0.011** (Predicted) [0.111] [0.006] Total Assets 0.194*** 0.207*** 0.217*** 0.189*** (in log) [0.009] [0.019] [0.018] [0.009] Price-Book Ratio -0.001** -0.001*** -0.001*** -0.001*** [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] 0.000 -0.000 0.000*** [0.000] [0.000] [0.000] RE Investment Growth 0.000*** [0.000] Age 0.001 0.002 0.001 0.001 (years, in log) Year-Fixed Effects Property Type Constant Observations [0.001] [0.002] [0.001] [0.001] Y Y Y 716 Y Y Y 637 Y Y Y 716 Y Y Y 637 Main Findings 1% and 6% of the REIT property portfolios are green-certified in 2010 for LEED and Energy Star, respectively. Portfolio greenness enhances operating performance proxied by ROA, ROE and FFO/Total Revenue. Different from analysis of financial performance of green properties, these measures are net of costs. No effect of greenness on abnormal stock returns, indicating that market already corrects for portfolio greenness. Portfolio greenness decreases market risk. More, and more stable, occupancy of green buildings Green properties less exposed to energy price fluctuations For questions and remarks: [email protected] For more research: www.epri.eu www.gresb.com