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(and not rainfall)
Massari C., Brocca L. and Moramarco T.
Research Institute for Geo-Hydrological Protection, CNR, Perugia, Italy
Soil moisture importance…
Soil moisture plays a critical role in the
hydrological cycle … (i.e. partitioning of
precipitation into surface runoff, evaporation and
groundwater recharge!)
Rainfall
SOIL MOISTURE brings
information of all these
Runoffprocesses!! Why do
Soil moisture
not use
it??
Krahn 2004
In particular … SOIL MOISTURE is a key
variable in rainfall runoff transformation!!
1.5
800
2
600
2.5
3
400
200
3.5
Qp = 870 m3/s
Rc = 0.34
4
4.5
0
5
5/12 5/12 5/12 6/12 6/12 7/12 7/12 7/12
1200 0.0 10.0 20.0 6.0 16.0 2.0 12.0 22.0 0
85
0.5
mm
Qp = 670 m3/s
1000
1
R = 0.17
discharge (cm/s)
TIBER
BASIN
Ponte Nuovo
1
c
800
1.5
2
600
2.5
3
400
200
3.5
4
4.5
0
rainfall (mm/0.5h)
 Merz and Bloschl, 2009 (WRR)
 Brocca et al., 2009 (JHE), 2010 (HESS)
 Matgen et al., 2012 (HYP)
0.5
1000
discharge (cm/s)
Many studies highlighted the importance of
soil moisture to determine the catchment
hydrological response:
0
35
mm
5
1/6 2/6 2/6 2/6 3/6 3/6 4/6 4/6
17.30 3.30 13.30 23.30 9.30 19.30 5.30 15.30
rainfall (mm/0.5h)
1200
and in rainfall estimation… SM2RAIN
RAINFALL
SOIL MOISTURE
Infiltration
evapotranspiration
Brocca et al., 2013 (GRL)
Soil moisture controls the runoff response:
Experimental relationship!!
0.8
SWI ()
Italy
Tiber
River
T=45 days
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
SWI ()
0.8
0
50
0.6
0.5
0.8
0.1
Assino
0
100
150
200
T=33 days
0
50
100
150
200
T=80 days
0.8
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
Cerfone
0
50
100
150
200
T=41 days
0.7
0
50
100
0.8
150
200
T=73 days
0.7
0
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.1
50
100
Sobs (mm)
50
200
150
200
Nestore
0
150
100
T=31 days
0.1
Topino
0
0
Australia
0
50
100
150
200
Beck et al., 2010 (JSTARS)
France
Tramblay et al., 2010 (JoH), 2011 (NHESS)S (mm)
obs
150
200
T=47 days
0.7
0.6
0
100
Caina
0.8
0.6
Timia
50
0
0.6
0.1
0
0.1
Genna
0
0.8
Niccone
0
0.7
0
T=80 days
0.7
0.1
Tevere - PN
0.1
SWI ()
T=80 days
0.7
0
Brocca et al.,
2009 (JoH); 2009 (JHE)
0.8
ERS SCATTEROMETER SOIL
MOISTURE DATA
0.7
0.1
11 catchments
100-5000 km2
0.8
0
50
100
Sobs (mm)
150
200
Continuous models… need of uninterrupted
temperature and rainfall data …
45
40
35
Rainfall time series
30
25
20
15
INPUT DATA
10
5
35
0
0
30
25
20
Temperature time series
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
4
x 10
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
RAINFALLRUNOFF
MODEL
600
Runoff time series
Portata [m3/s]
500
400
300
200
100
2010
2020
2030
2040
Anni
2050
2060
2070
Simplified Continuous RR modelling SCRRM
EVENT-BASED
RAINFALL-RUNOFF
MODEL
SOIL
MOISTURE
θ
SOIL CONSERVATION
SERVICE METHOD
(SCS-CN)
100
60
S
40
20
0
0.6
0.7
0.8
W(t)/Wmax
θ
0.9
1
S = a(1 - θ)
DISCHARGE
S
S (mm)
80
Application of the SCRRM in Greece
0°
20° E
Legend
50° N
Flow gauges
Metereological station
Rafina river network
Penteli
Rafina cathcment
Elevation
R600
0°
High : 950 m
20° E
Low : 25 m
R400
Early Warning
System for Flood
and Fire
forecasting
Rafina
Pikermi
Kantza
0 1 2
4
Spata
6
km
8
ASCAT
AMSR-E
Rainfall estimation from soil moisture
measurements … SM2RAIN
relative saturation
precipitation runoff
Evapodrainage
transpiration
soil
depth
Inverting for p(t):
Assuming:
+
+
Soil water
balance
equation
SM2RAIN… validation
Three sites in Italy, Spain and France
with hourly rainfall and soil moisture
observations are selected
Estimation of daily rainfall for 1year data
Italy
NS=0.82
Spain
NS=0.89
France
NS=0.81
SM2RAIN… validation: ASCAT Satellite data
Global scale
Modelling floods with only soil moisture…
Model
Continuous
models
Rainfall
SCRRM
(Pobs)
estimation
SOIL
MOISTURE
SCRRM
Rainfall
Temperature
✓
✓
100
80
✓
S (mm)
SM2RAIN
60
40
20
0
0.6
0.7
0.8
W(t)/Wmax
SCRRM (Pest)
FLOOD
MODELING
Soil
Moisture
Initialization
of the RR
✓
model
0.9
1
✓
Study area and datasets
Area: 3.83 km2
France - Valescure
Elevations:
(Tramblay et al. 2010)
from 244m to 815m ASL
Mean slope: 56 %
18 flood
events were
selected from
discharge and
precipitation
time series in
the period
2008–2011.
Rainfall estimation with SM2RAIN
Relative
Soil Moisture [-]
1
0.8
0.4
4000
2000
Daily Rainfall [mm]
Pobs
Pest
Mean
99
99
P
obs
Median
75
95
304
312
12
18
For the events…
0.2
6000
Cumulative
rainfall [mm]
Observed soil
moisture at a
depth of 20 cm
0.6
0
300
P
Max
est
Min
R=0.87 RMSE=9.45 mm/h
DAILY RAINFALL
Cumulative
rainfalls
P
200
obs
Pest
100
0
2008
2009
2010
R= 0.87 NS=0.69 RMSE=9.45 mm/h
2011
Daily rainfall
intensity
Rainfall runoff modelling - Comparison
10
0
5
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
50
2008-10-21
2
0
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
5
0
30
2008-11-04
5
0
0
1
5
10
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2008-12-30
10
0
0
0
5
10
15
2009-02-01
0
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
20
5
10
15
20
Mean
1
5
0
0
Qobs
Max
10
15
20
25
30
10
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2009-10-20
10
0
5
0
5
10
0
20
15
2
0
10
15
20
2010-02-19
0
0
0
5
10
2010-05-10
1
NSPobs
0
0
2
20
0
0.64
0
NSPest
5
10
NSPest
15
20
cal
no cal
0.52
-0.85
EQp-osb
0
25
0.71
Qsim(Pest)
0.98
0.90
Min
-0.13
NStot
0.83
-0.63
Pobs
Pest
1
E0 Qp-Pest
0
2
2010-12-21
0.23
0
0.12
0.87
0.57
-0.18
-4.19
-0.72
0.69
0.08
5
EQp-Pest
10
15
20
cal
no cal
0.26
0
0.64
20
1
0.70
1
0.5
50
10
2
1
1
5
1
0.5
0
2010-03-30
25
Qsim(Pobs)
0
20
15
4
35
2010-02-16
2
Median
10
2008-12-14
0
0
5
0
0
2010-11-20
20
10
1
Event
0
2
35
2010-03-25
0
0
0
10
5
2
20
2010-01-14
0
5
2
1
0
10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50
2
5
40
4
5
20
20
0
0
15
2
1
0
10
2008-11-02
0
2008-11-05
5
5
5
15
0.5
0
0
10
2008-10-31
0
25
30
35
4
2010-12-22
2
10
time t [h]
0.24
0.64
0.03
1.46
-0.85
-0.58
Event
0
Discharge Q [m3/s]
5
RainfallP [mm]
0
50
rainfall (mm/0.5h)
Rainfall runoff modelling - Comparison
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
10
20
12
Event 2008-10-31
3
discharge (m /s)
10
Qobs
Qsim(P
8
obs
)
Qsim(Pest)
6
Pobs
P
4
est
2
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50
time (0.5h)
Qmax
[m3/s]
8.9
D
Pobs
Pest
NSPobs
NSPest
EQp-osb
EQp-Pest
[h]
46.00
[mm]
304
[mm]
312
0.89
0.79
0.10
-0.22
Conclusions
SM2RAIN and SCRRM have been coupled thus
allowing to modelling floods with only soil
moisture observations (first time)!!!
Soil moisture has a great relevance in flood
simulation...!!!
It can be used in practical hydrological applications where
observed rainfall and runoff data might be highly uncertain (or
even missing)
Why do not work more on integrating soil
moisture observations to improve our classical
approaches in flood modelling?