Transcript Moroccan economy in the context of the financial and

Moroccan economy
in the context of the
financial and economic
crisis
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The crisis is
unprecedented
in its scale and
consequences
The mechanisms and
levels of addressing
are exceptional too
-Emergency measurements taken by countries;
- coordination of the national positions on the
international level (forums, G-20, regional
organizations and blocs)
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Sound banking and
financial system
Solid fundamentals
And structural reforms
Efficient exchange
rate regime
MOROCCO
Morocco has managed to resist against the direct effects
of the crisis.
Nonetheless, given its openness on the global economy,
Morocco felt the impact of the economic crisis on the
productive sectors linked to foreign demand.
The Government has implemented a
number of measures under the 2009
finance act.
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Politics
■ constitutional monarchy with a
parliamentary government
■ bicameralism: upper house and
lower house
■ the constitution prohibits the
single party → multipartism and
multi labor unions
■ Morocco is an arab and muslim
country, mediteranean, atlantic and
african country
■ long diplomatic tradition (Great
Britain, USA, Russia, Netherlands
etc).
Morocco
was
granted
“Advanced status” from EU
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Economy
■ 5,6 % economic growth in 2008
■ 61st largest economy in the world
■ two national economic strategies:
Plan Maroc Vert and Plan Emergence
■ official unemployment – 8% in 2008
■ budget surplus – 0,4 % of GDP in 2008
(up from 0,2% in 2007)
■ FDI declined for the first time since
2004, retreating 29% in 2008 to €2.4bn
■ balance of payments’ current account
posted a deficit (due to the spiralling trade
deficit and a decline in remittances and
tourism revenue)
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Budget deficit, % of GDP
6
Inflation rate in 1990-2008
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Banking
- limited connection to global
financial markets → bank resistance
against crisis
- 11,1% deposits growth (record
€51.5bn)
- number of account holders increased
from 25% in 2007 to 29% in 2008
- banking security issue: in May 2009, the
Ministry of Interior ordered 270 banks to
increase their security measures
- contrary to others countries Moroccan
banks issued more loans: 2.6% growth in
the first five months of 2009
- overall banking earnings increased
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Capital Markets
- Morocco All Share Index (at the
Casablanca Stock Exchange - CSE) felt
less than 14% in 2008 (compared to the
Saudi Tadawul All Share Index’s drop of
57% and Egypt’s CASE 30’s 34% slide)
- the sixth largest stock exchange in the
Arab world and the 3rd ranked in Africa
- €48bn market capitalisation at the end of
July 2009
- However, 4 of the 5 companies that went
public in 2008 saw their shares fall below
IPO price
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Tourism
- about 8 mln tourists in 2007 (4,4
mln in 2001). However, hotel nights
and
tourist
income
showed
negative tendance: 10% drop in
receipts is expected for 2009.
- CAP 2009, a plan to better
promote Morocco globally as a
tourism destination.
- national tourism strategy Plan
Azur: aims the construction of 6
integrated resorts costing €4.05bn
- government agreement with the
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National Hotel Industry
Environment
◦ National Wastewater Management
Programme
◦ better water rationalisation in
agriculture, which uses 80% of water
resources
◦ National Renewable Energy and
Efficiency Plan: develops alternative
energy to meet 15% of its domestic
needs and increases the use of
energy-saving methods
◦ National Plan for the Development of
Solar Thermal Energy aims to install
440,000 solar-powered water heaters
by 2012, of which 235,000 are
completed
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Environment
◦
solid-waste
management
programme targets a 90% waste
disposal rate for urban areas by
2021. World Bank granted a €121m
loan in 2009
◦ ecotourism projects
◦ ambitious solar project: $9 bn,
with 5 solar power generation the
project is anticipted to produce
38% of the national installed power
generation by 2020
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Construction and Real Estate
• Priority for the government-backed
social housing projects
• Most sector indicators dropped
• Completion times were extended in
the case of many large projects: large
resorts of Plan Azur, Infrastructure
projects
• The high-end property fell 10-15% in
price in 2008
• Demand for low- and medium-income
housing continues to be strong, with
an estimated deficit of 610,000 units.
• The New Cities programme (creation
of 15 new cities)
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Agriculture
• 40% of the population;
• between 19% and 21% of GDP;
• optimistic outlook for 2009’s
harvest;
• The Green Morocco Plan
includes boosting sector GDP
contribution to up to €9bn
annually from €3.42bn in 2008.
It
targets
modernizing
production and boosting quality.
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Telecoms & IT
• The 2005 Plan Emergence resulted in the creation of
Casanearshore and Rabat Technopolis offshoring centres.
• A new four-year Impact Plan aims to support small and
medium-sized business computerisation, e-government and
broadband access and promote entrepreneurship in new and
niche ICT areas.
• A low internet penetration rate (21%) presents a challenge for
the development of e-commerce .
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Telecoms & IT
• The telecoms market generated
more than $3.75bn in turnover in
2008, or 7% of GDP.
• 3G technology, introduced to the
market in 2007, shot up 527.5% in
2008 (now 35.4% of Internet
connections).
• The mobile penetration rate rose
from 65.7% at the end of 2007 to
74% at the end of 2008
• Fixed lines renaissance in 2008,
growing 24.96% → the addition of
an extra digit to existing phone
numbers.
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Industry
• Mostly due to foreign demand
contraction textiles production fell
(by 3,3%, leather - by12.5%, metal
products - by 40.9%
• The world’s largest phosphates
exporter
• Some sectors (auto industry,
cement) showed negative tendance
on the international and positive on
the domestic markets
• Pharmaceuticals
sold
well
domestically,
with
average
expenditure per person rising from
€26 in 2007 to €30.60 in 2008
• Maroc Export Plus plan for 2009
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Retail
• Retail sales have been less affected by the
financial crisis, with only some non-food products,
including clothing and household goods, posting
slight declines.
• The part of small grocere is still about 91% of the
total market.
Expansion of the
supermarket segment:
French chain
Carrefour,Turkish
discount store BIM,
Morocco Mall in
Casablanca (opening in
2010)
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Crisis transmission
channels
• Foreign trade
• Drop in touristic
revenues
• Decline in remittances
• FDI contraction
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The Moroccan strategic
follow up committee
• Created in February 2009
• Monitoring mechanism
• Main spheres of action:
social, financial, commercial
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Results
Despite a deterioration of economic situation of
its trading partners Morocco’s economic
performance has remained solid.
GDP grew by 5,6% in 2008 despite the
declines in the manufacturing, tourism and
export sectors.
In light of recent stabilizing trends in these
sectors and relatively sustained domestic
demand, real non agricultural GDP is expected
to grow by about 2 ½ percent in 2009.
Combined with the record cereal production,
overall GDP growth is projected about 5,4
percent.
The global economy remains vulnerable to
shocks such as an increase in the oil price, the
H1N1 flu, protectionism and geopolitical
tensions.
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СПАСИБО
ЗА ВНИМАНИЕ
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