Transcript Slide 1
Reflections on our Climate Predicament James J. McCarthy Professor of Oceanography, Harvard University Irvine 7 June 2011 JJM WMO 2011 DECADAL CHANGES IN AVERAGE GLOBAL TEMPERATURE http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/bams-state-of-the-climate/ July 2010 NOAA BAMS SOTC 2010 World Meteorological Organization 2010, Publ #1055 Lean and Rind 2009 Fossil Fuel Emission (PgCy-1) Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios 10 9 Observed Projected A1B Models Average A1FI Models Average A1T Models Average A2 Models Average 8 B1 Models Average B2 Models Average 7 Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections 6 5 1990 1995 2000 2005 Time (y) Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010 2010 2015 Growth rate 2000-2009 2.5 % per year Growth rate 1990-1999 1 % per year Time (y) Friedlingstein et al. 2010, Nature Geoscience; Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010 CO2 emissions (Pg CO2 y-1) CO2 emissions (Pg C y-1) Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions 2009: Emissions:8.4±0.5 PgC Growth rate: -1.3% 1990 level: +37% 2000-2008 Growth rate: +3.2% 2010 (projected): Growth rate: >3% Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions: Top Emitters 2009 China 1600 (C tons x 1,000,000) Carbon Emissions per year 2000 USA 1200 800 India Russian Fed. 400 Japan 0 1990 93 95 97 99 2001 03 Time (y) Global Carbon Project 2010; Data: Gregg Marland, Tom Boden-CDIAC 2010 05 07 2009 Transport of Embodied Emissions CO2 emissions (PgC y-1) 5 55% 5 Annex B Annex B 4 4 Developed Nations 45% 3 Developing Nations 2 Non-Annex B 1990 2000 Local Emissions Developed Nations 3 25% of growth 2 Developing Nations Non-Annex B 2010 1990 2000 Local + Imported Product Emissions Global Carbon Project 2009; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Data: Peters & Hetwich 2009; Peters et al. 2008; Weber et al 2008; Guan et al. 2008; CDIAC 2009 2010 Fate of Anthropogenic CO2 Emissions (2000-2009) 1.1±0.7 PgC y-1 4.1±0.1 PgC y-1 47% 7.7±0.5 PgC y-1 + 2.4 PgC y-1 27% Calculated as the residual of all other flux components 26% 2.3±0.4 PgC y-1 Average of 5 models Global Carbon Project 2010; Updated from Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature Geoscience; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS Changes in temperature extremes IPCC Sea level rise Delta Comm. Data: Church and White (2006) Scenarios 2100: 50 – 140 cm (Rahmstorf 2007) 55 – 110 cm (“high end”, Delta Committee 2008) Scenarios 2200: 150 – 350 cm (“high end”, Delta Committee 2008) Scenarios 2300: 250 – 510 cm (German Advisory Council on Global Change, WBGU, 2006) WBGU Recent Global Sea Level Rise Estimates Projected Sea Level Rise for end of 21st Century Rahmstorf 2010 “On the basis of calculations presented here, we suggest that an improved estimate of the range of sea level rise to 2100 including increased ice dynamics lies between 0.8 and 2.0 meters [31 – 78 inches].” Pfeffer et al. 2008 Record-Breaking Heat - Europe 2003 • Paris: highest nighttime T ever recorded on 11 and 12 August (25.5ºC) • The period between 4 and 12 August was unique in the meteorological history of Paris, with respect to the intensity, duration, and minimum and maximum daily temperatures. • • Average daytime high was 37ºC. • 15% of France’s cities recorded T above 40ºC 2010 Surface Temperature Anomaly in deg C (relative to 1951-1980 average) Dec – Jan – Feb Jun – Jul – Aug Hansen GISS 2010 Fossil Fuel Emission (PgCy-1) Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios 10 9 Observed Projected A1B Models Average A1FI Models Average A1T Models Average A2 Models Average 8 B1 Models Average B2 Models Average 7 Full range of IPCC individual scenarios used for climate projections 6 5 1990 1995 2000 2005 Time (y) Updated from Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; Data: Gregg Marland, Thomas Boden-CDIAC 2010; International Monetary Fund 2010 2010 2015 Pew Data, 2008: If you’re a Republican, then the higher your level of education, the less likely you are to accept scientific reality—which is, that global warming is human caused.