Transcript Nielsen Powerpoint template: Blue Footer (Office 2003)

Rob Prosser
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Take-home pay under pressure
Household income growth hurt by rising rates
Price deflation a drag on many categories
“The consumer isn’t consuming enough extra
Retail
volume”
spending conditions slowest growth since 2000
30%
Household income spent on mortgage repayments, mortgage
stress will affect many more HH as interest rates climb
Credit card & credit
applications down for
8 consecutive
quarters
Consumers say they
are paying down
debt, and saving
Source:
Retail
spending:
CITI Group;
Credit
Card: Veda
Debt Agency
Copyright
© 2010
The Nielsen
Company.
Confidential
and proprietary.
FLAT
Q1 2.8%
Q2 1.3%
2010 YTD
(UNIT GROWTH 1.3%)
Q3 1.9%
Source: Nielsen
Scantrack
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential
and proprietary.
Pharmacy
Convenience
+5.0%
Units +2.9%
+0.3%
Units -1.8%
Liquor
-0.3%
Units -2.4%
2010 YTD
Source: Nielsen
Scantrack
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential
and proprietary.
-0.6%
Dept. Stores
-0.9%
Clothing/ Apparel
+2.8%
Newspaper/ Books
+0.6%
Household Goods
+11.4%
2010 YTD
Restaurants/ Cafés/
Takeaways
Source:
ABS
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and
proprietary.
Consumer Confidence drives demand. Q3 has bounced back but
recent announcements may flatten trend into Holiday season…
Q. At the moment, the time to buy the
things I want is…
Consumer Confidence Index
GFC
97
94
88
85
84
77
117
120
109
104
92
92
93
111
108
82
95
106
Apr'07 Oct'07 May'08 Oct'08 Apr'09 Jun'09 Oct'09 Mar'10 Jun '10
Australia
Aus
90
115
Sept
'10
Global
Global
+7.0%
Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Within key European markets we see the UK experiencing
continued low levels of consumer sentiment.
Source: Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Australia
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
Nominal growth-% change in value sales: Unit value change-% change in the average retail price per unit in the total basket (Val/ Vol):
Volume change-% change in purchased volume (quantity) of products.
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
New Zealand
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
Source: Nielsen Growth Reporter
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
The UK market struggling to grow volumes in the last two
quarters.
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
Source: Nielsen Growth Reporter
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
The US market, pulling all the levers, but failing
to grow consumption and value growth.
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
Source: Nielsen Growth Reporter
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
China showing a strong recovery through
2010, with strong increases in consumption.
Fast Moving Consumer Goods market dynamics
Source: Nielsen Growth Reporter
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
How have Shopping habits changed?
The Supermarket is increasingly becoming a big convenience store…
• Average Shopper repertoire now sits at 4
stores/ week!
• Grocery basket values down 5% year on year
– Driven by reduction in items above $10, and an
– increase in items below $5
• Significant price compression
• Growth in ALDI usage
• Private Label penetration at 100% of Australian
Households
• In NZ more than half of all grocery purchases
are made on promotion
– Australia is rising from the mid-thirties
Source: Nielsen Homescan
HomeScan;
Scantrack
Copyright © 2010 TheSource:
Nielsen Nielsen
Company.
ConfidentialNielsen
and proprietary.
Rapid change in the name of the Shopper is the new mantra
• Nationally consistent pricing
• Focus on special offers and discounts
• Massive ‘Fresh Food’ emphasis
• Increased media spend
• Sustainability, Insurance…
…and the list goes on
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Confused? – What about the Shopper?
Store Formats
 Supercenter Expansion
 Small Formats
 Green Formats
 Ethnic Formats
 Outdoor Malls
 Pop-Up Retailers
Assortment & Services
 Self-Check-Out
 Health Clinics
 Food & Food Service
 Store Brands
 Better-For-You Solutions
 Online
 Gift Cards
Communication
 Digital Media
 Social Media
 Smart Phone Apps
 In-Store Kiosks & TVs
Promotion
 Coupon Renaissance
 Shopper Cards Fulfill
Promise
 Fuel Savings
 Shopper Marketing
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Majors retailers are increasingly substitutable – Spot the difference!
Expected to have a greater
impact in the future as
Australian shoppers learn
where this type of retailer fits
in within their repertoire of
stores and start to have
greater access to the stores
& Large
Discount Stores
Source: Shopper Trends Survey Base: Q8a Which of these have you shopped at in in the Past 12 Months? All respondents n=1979
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Globally consumers rank the most important attributes similarly.
If it’s all about price…
Store differentiation attributes: 2010
Ranking of derived importance
TOP FIVE
 Easy to quickly find what I
need
 Always have what I want in
stock
 High quality fresh food
 Pleasant store
environment
 Has high quality brands
21st
 Low prices
“Provides Private label
as a good alternative”
Ranks above price
Source: Nielsen State of Play ’10 (JJ)
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
While 28% of shoppers actively search for promotions in store, only
11% claim to change stores for a promotion.
Promotion Sensitivity across Europe
Source: Nielsen State of Play ’10 (JJ)
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Increasingly, alternative channels are an important part of
shoppers’ repertoire as they search for fresh, new and ‘value’.
Share of Claimed Shopper Visits (% of all visits)
Coles
21%
Bakeries
10%
Floor space
allocated to Fresh
Fruit & Veg Stores
10%
IGA
9%
Woolworths/
Safeway
28%
Fish shop/Butcher
5%
Aldi
4%
Convenience store
3%
Corner Store
Others
2%
2%
Delicatessens
Farmers markets
2%
Other Supermarkets
1%Asian Grocers
2%
1%
Source: Shopper Trends Survey, Floor space to fresh: Macquarie Equities
33%
UP 13%
30%
UP 12%
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Woolworths and Coles are key grocery, meal and special event shopping
channels. IGA are strongly positioning themselves as a provider of top up
and emergency shops. (BIG convenience!).
Shopper Missions x Share of Shoppers (%)
Supermarkets
Main
Top Up
Emergency
Coles
27
23
Woolworths/Safeway
27
21
IGA
13
Aldi
Other supermarkets
13
Special Event
15
16
27
17
37
5
15
7
15
13 3 11
33
42
21
Petrol
14
33
36
Large Discount
Stores
Meal
8
12 30
19
9 1 12
26
11 3 9
Source: Nielsen ShopperTrends Survey Base: Q14. Which of these stores have you shopped in
the past 4 weeks for a…?
Base: All respondents (n=1979)
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
What we do know …
• Retail Brands will keep on growing in search of margin
• Growth will neither slow down nor speed up = By-product of
modern retail
• Retail Brands are not a product of economic panic
• Retail Brands are not a quick win
• Retail Brands have limited contribution to retailer equity
• Retail Brands will coexist with brands
• Price is not the irresistible differentiator
• Retail Brands win more on value than on price
• Retail Brands are not for low budget shoppers (actually the
contrary)
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
The Retail Brands reality is significant globally, mostly
growing.
2010 for Aus &NZ, 2009 for most countries (some of the smaller markets is 2008 data)
Source: Nielsen State of Play ’10 (JJ)
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Retail Brands share: 8 years, 7 countries and
1944 categories
Source: Nielsen State of Play ’10 (JJ)
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Retail Brands share: 8 years, 7 countries and
1944 categories
4.5%
16%
point gain
growth
7.6%
15.7%
point gain
48%
23.3%
growth
Source: Nielsen State of Play ’10 (JJ)
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
The faster you increase your store density per million population, the
more you grow your share of trade, or do you?
Share
Of
Trade
More Stores
Source: Nielsen State of Play ’10 (JJ)
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
As we see the growth in Hard Discounter roll-out, convenience
need not be at the expense of price.
Source: Nielsen State of Play ’10 (JJ)
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Private Label Share
23.9
%
Q3 ‘10
Source: Nielsen HomeScan
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Private Label Share
Top 10 Private Label Categories by Value Share (% of Category Dollars)
QTR to 02/10/2010 vs. YA
23.9
%
Share
+/- vs YA
Househol
d
Penetrati
on +/- vs.
YA
$ AWOP
+/- vs YA
63.0
+2.1
-0.2
-0.02
Food
52.9
+1.4
-0.2
-0.71
Eggs
Food
51.8
-0.1
+0.3
-0.34
Fresh Milk
Food
51.0
-0.4
-1.4
-0.25
Fresh Cream
Food
50.1
+0.5
+1.4
0.0
Bakery
Food
43.4
-0.4
-0.2
+0.85
Canned
Vegetables
Food
43.0
+3.4
+1.4
+0.05
Top 10
Wraps and
Containers
Non Food
39.2
+3.0
+3.1
-0.12
by Share
Canned Fruit
Food
37.7
+2.1
+0.1
-0.34
Oils
Food
36.1
+0.5
-0.1
-0.21
Q3 ‘10
Category
Food/
Non Food
Party/Picnic
Non Food
Yogurt Drinks
Source: Nielsen HomeScan
% PL
Share of
Category
$
NEW ENTRANT
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Private Label Share
Top 10 Private Label Categories by Actual Value Change
QTR to 02/10/2010 vs. YA
23.9
%
Q3 ‘10
Top 10
by $ change
Househo
ld
Penetrati
on +/vs. YA
$ AWOP
+/- vs YA
Category
Food/
Non
Food
% PL
Share of
Category
$
Bakery
Food
43.4
-0.4
-0.2
+0.8
Toilet
Paper/Towels
Non
Food
20.6
+4.6
+8.0
+0.1
Pet Food and
Care
Non
Food
21.4
0.6
-0.5
+1.4
Seafood
Food
27.3
+4.8
+2.5
+0.7
Ice Cream
Food
15.8
+2.5
+3.7
+0.1
Frozen Fish
Food
19.9
+1.4
+2.5
+0.5
Frozen Meals
Food
18.4
+0.3
+0.9
+0.9
Biscuits
Food
18.3
+0.9
+3.0
0.0
Soup
Food
12
+3.1
+3.9
+0.5
Confectionery
Food
15.8
+0.1
+0.7
+0.2
Source: Nielsen HomeScan
NEW ENTRANT
Share
+/- vs
YA
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Key Takeouts…
• Australian retail is at it’s most competitive for more than a decade. Driven by
– Resurgent Coles / Growth of ALDI / Changing ethnographies
• All majors now have a relentless focus on the Shopper
– Customer centricity is the new mantra
– Retailers are restructuring business units to cope
• Current retailer strategies have had mixed results
– Increasing uncertainty as to how to differentiate the offer
– ‘Tit for tat’ marketing has amplified - stagnant share growth
– ALDI continues to baffle the majors – how to compete? Is PL the answer?
• Blurring of channels is an increasing reality
– Driving cross channel visitation up
– Driving baskets down
– Impacting loyalty to specific banners
• Next 12 months will be even more intensive as ALDI ramps up expansion,
Coles open more than 100 new / refurbished stores and price discounting
intensifies and what constitutes Convenience is continually re-stated…
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
and
Good Trading
[email protected]
from
The Nielsen Team
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Appendix
PL share has of Supermarkets has increased in the latest QTR, with
growth seen in spend of $3.42 compared to QTR last year
Trended Share, Penetration & AWOP
AUS Supermarkets - Total Private Label
Source: Nielsen Homescan® (Australia) - Issue # 441052
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Coles Group has seen an increase in retailer share in the latest QTR
and IGA remains stable
Trended Retailer Share of PL
Retailer % Share - Total Private Label
Source: Nielsen Homescan® (Australia) - Issue # 441052
Q3 2010 Nielsen Private Label Report
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Aldi has grown by +0.6 points in Household reach in the latest QTR
vs. last year and has gained share of the market.
Trended Share, Penetration & AWOP
ALDI - Total Private Label
Source: Nielsen Homescan® (Australia) - Issue # 441052
Q3 2010 Nielsen Private Label Report
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
The share of PL in Coles grew by +0.5points vs. last year. Driven by
increase in spend in the latest QTR, penetration was also in growth
Trended Share, Penetration & AWOP
NAT COLES GROUP (Ex PnP) - Total Private Label
Source: Nielsen Homescan® (Australia) - Issue # 441052
Q3 2010 Nielsen Private Label Report
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Woolworths has gained share of PL vs. QTR YA, this has been due
to increase in households buying in WW coupled with increasing
spend
Trended Share, Penetration & AWOP
WOOLWORTHS - Total Private Label
Source: Nielsen Homescan® (Australia) - Issue # 441052
Q3 2010 Nielsen Private Label Report
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
IGA share of PL is higher than YA share; driven by increase in buyer
spend, though HH’s buying has reduced
Trended Share, Penetration & AWOP
IGA (incl RITCHIES) - Total Private Label
Source: Nielsen Homescan® (Australia) - Issue # 441052
Q3 2010 Nielsen Private Label Report
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
FoodWorks continues to lose share of PL vs. YA with a large decline
in spend while household reach has increased.
Trended Share, Penetration & AWOP
FOODWORKS - Total Private Label
Source: Nielsen Homescan® (Australia) - Issue # 441052
Q3 2010 Nielsen Private Label Report
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Independent Singles have increased their spend on PL in the last year.
Young Transitional have increased their share spend on PL substantially
QTR on QTR in the last year.
PL Share Trend by Demographic Lifestage Group | AUS Supermarket
Source: Nielsen Homescan | Total Private Label - Value Market Share | Share of Total Grocery Spend | For Period Ending 02/10/2010
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.
Market Share of Discounters in Europe
Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. Confidential and proprietary.