Transcript Employment Outlook: 2002

Looking to Colorado’s Future
Alexandra Hall
Director, Labor Market Information
Colorado Department of Labor and Employment
What we’ll cover today:
 Basic Industry/Occupation Concepts
 Current economic climate
 Forecasting Process
 Hot Industries
 Hot Occupations
2,000
1939
1940
1941
1942
1943
1944
1945
1946
1947
1948
1949
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Colorado Employment and Recessions
1939 - 2005
2,500
"A recession is a significant decline in activity spread
across the economy lasting more than a few months."
1,500
1,000
500
0
Industry
Individual companies conducting
similar business
 Agriculture
 Mining
 Construction
 Manufacturing
Industry
Individual companies conducting
similar business
 Tourism
 Hi-Tech
 Bio-Tech
Occupation
Work in which people engage to
earn a living
 Accountant
 Secretary
 Flight Attendant
 Surgeon
 Software Engineer
 Network Analyst
Occupation
Work in which people engage to
earn a living
 Customer Service Representative
 Administrative Assistant
What is Labor Market Information?
 Industry Employment & Wages
 Occupation Employment & Wages
 Demand for Workers
– Current Demand
– Future Demand
Employment Outlook:
The U.S. and Colorado through 2012
Employment Outlook: 2002-12
Projections Process
Labor force
– Economic growth
– Industry employment
– Occupational employment
Population growth rates
Annual rates of change
1.7
1.4
1940-50
1.3
1950-60
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1960-70
1.0
1970-80
0.9
1.0
1.1
1980-90
19902000
2002-12
projected
The civilian labor force will grow by 1.1
percent annually from 2002 to 2012.
2.6
Annual rates of change
1.7
1.1
1.6
1.1
1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 1980-90 1990-00
1.1
1.1
1992-02 2002-12
projected
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
The size of the civilian labor force ages
55-64 will increase significantly
Projected numerical change, 2002-12
65 and over
1,941
8,308
55 to 64
45 to 54
4,429
35 to 44
-2,493
25 to 34
16 to 24
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3,210
2,011
Labor force participation rate by gender
Percent, 1952-2002 and projected 2002-2012
100
86.4
Men
73.1
80
Total
60
61.6
40
Women
20
33.9
0
1952
1962
1972
1982
1992
2002
2012
projected
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Labor force participation of men and
women age 55 and older, 1948-2004
Percent
75
65
55
Men
45
35
Women
25
15
1948
1952 1956
1960
1964 1968
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1972 1976
1980 1984
1988 1992
1996 2000
2004
Women’s labor force
growth outpaces men’s
Percent change
Women
Men
21.7
14.3
14.3
12.0
8.7
1982-92
1992-2002
10.0
2002-12
projected
Women’s share of the labor force
continues to edge up
Percent of labor force
43
57
47
45
1992
2002
53
2002
2012
Men
2012
projected
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
54
48
Women
1982
55
1982
1992
projected
Labor force growth rates of
minorities outpaces whites
Percent change, 2002-12
51
33
19
9
Asian
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Hispanic
Black
White
12
Total
Workers by Race
82.9 80.3
Percent of labor force
2002
12.4 14.7
2012
11.4 12.2
4.1 5.5
White
Hispanic
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Black
Asian
1.5 2.0
All other
Colorado
5,137.928
4,335.540
3,442.908
3,294.394
2,723.376
1,978.461
Population
1990
2000
Labor Force
2012,
Projected
1990
2000
2012,
Projected
Colorado
38%
32%
23%
18%
Population
1990-2000
2000-2012
Labor Force
1990-2000
2000-2012
Employment Outlook: 2002-12
Projections Process
Labor force
Economic growth
– Industry employment
– Occupational employment
A healthy economy is
projected through 2012
Selected economic variables
5.2
3.0
2.1
GDP
(annual growth
rate, projected
2002-12)
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment
rate, 2012
(assumed)
Productivity
(annual growth
rate, projected
2002-12)
The 2002-12 projections assume a 3.0
percent real GDP growth rate
Average annual rate of change
4.4
4.0
3.2
19491959
19591969
19691979
3.4
3.0
19791989
19892000
3.2
3.0
1992- 20022002 projected
2012
Annualized growth rates of labor
productivity during recessions
Average annual rate of change
4.4
2.7
0.5
0.1
-0.1
-1.0
-1.2
60Q261Q1
69Q470Q4
73Q475Q1
80Q180Q3
81Q382Q4
90Q391Q1
01Q101Q4
The 2002-12 projections assume a
5.2 percent unemployment rate
Percent
5.8
5.5
5.3
5.2
4.0
3.5
1959
1969
1979
1989
2000
2012,
projected
Employment Outlook: 2002-12
Projections Process
Labor force
Economic growth
Industry output and employment
– Occupational employment
Nationally, total employment is projected to
increase by 4.8 percent or 21.3 million.
Nonfarm wage and salary employment is
projected to increase by 21.6 million
165.3
Millions of jobs
152.7
144.0
131.1
Total employment
2002
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
2012,
projected
Nonfarm wage
and salary
employment
2002
2012,
projected
Total employment is projected to increase by
23 percent or 551,600.
Nonfarm wage and salary employment is
projected to increase by 272,000
Millions of jobs
2.91
2.36
2.19
Total employment
2002
2.72
Colorado
Nonfarm wage and
salary employment
2012, Projected
Service-providing industries
continue to lead
employment growth
129.3
108.5
87.5
Millions of nonfarm
wage and salary jobs
22.0
22.6
23.3
Goods-producing
1992
2002
2012
projected
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Service-providing
1992
2002
2012
projected
Manufacturing, financial activities and
professional and business services accounted
for nearly half of total output in 2002
3,880
Manufacturing
2,498
2,089
Financial activities
Professional and business services
1,290
1,065
998
Education and health services
Retail trade
State and local government
965
951
866
Information
Wholesale trade
Construction
Leisure and hospitality
Transportation and warehousing
Other services
Federal government
Utilities
Mining
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
688
685
444
376
302
159
Billions of dollars
Service Providing
Goods Producing
Education and health services and professional
and business services accounted for nearly 40
percent of employment in 2002
Education and health services
Professional and business services
Manufacturing
Retail trade
Leisure and hospitality
State and local government (ex. educ. and hosp.)
Financial activities
Construction
Other services
Wholesale trade
Transportation and warehousing
Information
Federal government
Utilities
Mining
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
16,184
16,010
15,307
15,047
11,969
7,851
7,843
6,732
6,105
5,641
Thousands of nonfarm
5,050
wage and salary jobs
3,420
1,922
Service Providing
600
Goods Producing
512
Education and health services and professional
and business services account for nearly half of
projected total employment growth
5,145
Education and health services
4,866
Professional and business services
2,518
State and local government
Leisure and hospitality
2,135
Retail trade
2,082
1,014
Construction
Financial activities
964
Other services
960
914
Transportation and warehousing
Wholesale trade
638
Thousands of nonfarm wage
and salary jobs, 2002-12
Information
632
Service Providing
Federal Government
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
50
Goods Producing
Three of the 10 fastest-growing detailed
industries over thru 2012 are computer
related, two are health related.
Software publishers
68
Management, scientific and technical consulting services
55
Community care facilities for the elderly
55
Computer systems design and related services
55
54
Employment services
Vocational rehabilitation services
47
Ambulatory health care services
46
Water, sewage and other systems
46
Internet services and data processing services
46
Child day care services
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
43
Percent
change
Of Colorado’s 10 fastest-growing industries thru 2012
2 are health related, 2 are transportation related and
2 are manufacturing related.
106.2%
Community Care Facilities for the Elderly
77.7%
Internet Publishing & Broadcasting
77.0%
Veneer, Plywood & Engineered Plywood Manufacturing
70.6%
Drugs & Druggiiests' Sundries Merchant Wholesalers
67.7%
Computer Systems Design & Related Services
Support Activities for Road Transportation
65.6%
Other Non-Metallic Mineral Product Manufacturing
62.0%
Nonscheduled Air Transportation
61.7%
Management, Scientific & Technical Consulting Services
61.3%
Other Ambulatory Health Care Services
60.4%
The 10 detailed industries with the
most new jobs, projected thru 2012
Thousands of nonfarm wage and salary jobs
Retail trade
2,082
Employment services
1,764
State and local government education
1,730
1,337
Food services and drinking places
Office of health practitioners
1,229
1,014
Construction
Educational services
759
Ambulatory health care services
670
State and local general government
670
Wholesale trade
638
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Colorado’s 10 detailed industries with
the most new jobs, projected thru 2012
Educational Services
55,912
Computer Systems Design and Related Services
24,139
Full-Service Restaurants
23,717
22,540
General Medical and Surgical Hospitals
21,453
Local Government, Excluding Education and Hospitals
Services to Buildings and Dwellings
Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services
Limited-Service Eating Places
Offices of Physicians
Other Amusement and Recreation Industries
15,877
14,369
13,221
11,275
9,275
National
Detailed industries with faster than
average employment and output growth
Detailed industries with:
– employment growth greater than 14.8%
– and average annual output growth rates
greater than the overall average of 3.3%.
These industries accounted for:
– 21.3% of employment in 2002
– and are projected to account for 45% of
employment growth from 2002-2012
National
Detailed industries with faster than
average employment and output growth
If you include industries with:
– faster than average employment growth
– and average annual output growth of at least 2%
per year:
These industries accounted for:
– 38% of employment in 2002
– and are projected to account for 65% of
employment growth thru 2012
National
Detailed industries with faster than average
employment growth and output growth
greater than 2% per year
Manufacturing
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Plastics product manufacturing (128,000)*
Animal slaughtering and processing (80,000)
Architectural and structural metals mfg (77,000)
Pharmaceutical and medicine mfg (68,000)
Other wood product mfg (67,000)
Other general purpose machinery mfg (51,000)
Cement and concrete product mfg (48,000)
Metalworking machinery mfg (34,000)
Veneer, plywood mfg (21,000)
Forging and stamping (18,000)
* Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12
National
Detailed industries with faster than average
employment growth and output growth
greater than 2% per year
Utilities and waste management
– Water, sewage and other systems
(23,000)*
Transportation and warehousing
– Truck transportation, couriers and messengers
(507,000)
– Scenic and sightseeing transportation
(100,000)
* Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12
National
Detailed industries with faster than average
employment growth and output growth greater
than 2% per year
Information
– Internet services, data processing (244,000)*
– Software publishers (174,000)
– Motion picture and sound recording industries
(116,000)
Financial activities
–
–
–
–
Non-depository credit intermediation (196,000)
Consumer goods and general rental centers (131,000)
Securities, commodity contracts (124,000)
Commercial and industrial machinery rental (41,000)
* Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12
National
Detailed industries with faster than average
employment growth and output growth
greater than 2% per year
Education and health services
–
–
–
–
Offices of health practitioners (1,229,000)*
Ambulatory health care services (670,000)
Hospitals (632,000)
Individual, family, community and voc rehab
services (597,000)
– Nursing care and residential mental health
facilities (559,000)
– Child day care services (382,000)
* Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12
National
Detailed industries with faster than average
employment growth and output growth greater
than 2% per year
Leisure and hospitality
– Food services and drinking places (1,337,000)*
– Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries
(410,000)
– Traveler accommodation (293,000)
– Performing art companies, promoters, agents,
managers, and independent artists (37,000)
– Museums, historical sites, and similar institutions
(24,000)
– RV parks, recreational camps, and rooming and
boarding houses (8,000)
* Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12
National
Detailed industries with faster than average employment
growth and output growth greater than 2% per year
Other services
– Religious, grant making and giving services,
and social advocacy organizations (428,000) *
– Automotive repair and maintenance (149,000)
– Personal care services (144,000)
– Other personal services (51,000)
– Commercial and industrial equipment (except
automotive and electronic) repair and
maintenance (29,000)
State and local government
– State and local electric utilities (14,000)
* Numbers in parentheses are projected employment changes, 2002-12
Colorado Employment Growth thru
2012
Health Care & Social Assistance
61,023
55,912
50,961
48,249
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services
Educational Services
Retail Trade
Accommodation & Food Services
35,738
Administrative, Support, Waste M anagement & Remediation Services
29,355
27,700
24,010
23,663
21,078
20,127
17,496
15,432
13,967
13,679
9,407
Government
Self-Employed and Unpaid Family Workers, Primary Job
Finance & Insurance
M anufacturing
Transportation & Warehousing
Construction
Other Services
Wholesale Trade
Information
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation
Real Estate & Rental & Leasing
M anagement of Companies & Enterprises
M ining
Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Utilities -397
3,432
2,179
114
-397
78,480
Colorado
Detailed industries with faster than average
employment growth greater than 2.3% per year
Professional, Scientific & Technical Services (61,023)
– Computer Systems Design and Related Services (24,139)
– Management, Scientific, and Technical Consulting
Services (7,658)
– Specialized Design Services (977)
– Architectural, Engineering, and Related Services (14,369)
– Other Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services (3,866)
– Accounting, Tax Preparation, Bookkeeping, and
Payroll Services (3,456)
– Scientific Research and Development Services (2,518)
Colorado
Detailed industries with faster than average
employment growth greater than 2.3% per year
Health Care & Social Assistance (78,480)
–Community Care Facilities for the Elderly (7,758)
–Other Ambulatory Health Care Services (1,811)
–Home Health Care Services (4,898)
–Outpatient Care Centers (5,082)
–Individual and Family Services (5,670)
–General Medical and Surgical Hospitals (22,540)
–Offices of Physicians (11,275)
–Offices of Other Health Practitioners (3,225)
–Child Day Care Services (4,329)
–Offices of Dentists (4,039)
–Vocational Rehabilitation Services (1,033)
–Nursing Care Facilities (4,775)
Colorado
Detailed industries with faster than average
employment growth greater than 2.3% per year
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation ( 13,679 )
– Independent Artists, Writers, and Performers (381)
– Promoters of Performing Arts, Sports,
and Similar Events (440)
– Gambling Industries (1,775)
– Other Amusement and Recreation Industries (9,275)
– Museums, Historical Sites, and Similar Institution (552)
– Amusement Parks and Arcades (537)
– Spectator Sports (480)
Colorado
Detailed industries with faster than average
employment growth greater than 2.3% per year
Transportation & Warehousing (21,078)
–Support Activities for Road Transportation (784)
–Nonscheduled Air Transportation (595)
–Local Messengers and Local Delivery (586)
–Freight Transportation Arrangement (847)
–Warehousing and Storage (4,146)
–Scheduled Air Transportation (5,145)
–Urban Transit Systems (225)
–Specialized Freight Trucking (2,605)
–Interurban and Rural Bus Transportation (137)
Colorado
Detailed industries with faster than average
employment growth greater than 2.3% per year
Administrative, Support, Waste Management
& Remediation Services 35,738
–
–
–
–
–
Services to Buildings and Dwellings 15,877
Investigation and Security Services 4,089
Business Support Services 5,625
Waste Collection 866
Other Support Services 1,735
Educational Services 55,912
Employment Outlook: 2002-12
Projections Process
Labor force
Economic growth
Industry employment
Occupational employment
National
There are 22 major occupation groups
Of these, 14 are projected to grow
faster than average. Together, they:
– Accounted for 45% of employment in
2002
– And are projected to account for 65% of
employment change thru 2012
Major occupational groups projected to
grow faster than average (14.8%)
Percent change, projected thru 2012
Computer and
mathematical
35
Healthcare support
35
Community and social
services
26
Healthcare practitioners
26
Education, training and
library
25
25
Protective service
Business and financial
operations
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
21
Major occupational groups projected to
grow faster than average (14.8%)
Percent change, projected thru 2012
21
Personal care and service
Life, physical and social
science
17
Art, design, media
17
Building and grounds
cleaning and maintenance
16
Legal
16
Food preparation and
serving
Construction and extraction
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
16
15
Major occupational groups projected to
grow slower than average (14.8%)
Percent change, projected thru 2012
14
Installation, maintenance, and repair
Transportation and material moving
13
Sales and related
13
12
Management
9
Architecture and engineering
7
Office and administrative support
Farming, fishing, and forestry
Production
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
3
3
11 major occupations are projected to have a
net employment increase of more than 1 million
Thousands of jobs, projected thru 2012
2,109
Education, training and library
1,971
Sales and related
1,708
Healthcare practitioners
Office and administrative support
1,613
Food preparation and serving related
1,607
Transportation and material moving
Management
1,282
1,221
Business and financial operations
1,162
Healthcare support
1,143
Construction and extraction
Computer and mathematical
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
1,096
1,051
Percent change
projected to be
greater than average
(14.8%)
Percent change
projected to be
less than
average
Job openings from replacement needs
exceed those from employment growth
Millions of jobs, projected thru 2012
Service
5.3
Professional and related
7.6
6.5
5.3
Office and administrative support 1.6
5.9
Sales and related 2.0
4.9
Management, business, and financial 2.4
2.9
3.0
Installation, maintenance, and repair .8 1.3 2.1
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
7.5
6.9
5.3
3.4
Construction and extraction 1.1 1.5 2.5
Farming, fishing, and forestry .3
11.8
3.5
Transportation and material moving 1.3 2.2
Production
13.0
Change in employment
Net replacement needs
Six of the ten fastest growing detailed occupations
are health related, three are computer related
Percent change, projected thru 2012
59
Medical assistants
57
Network systems and data communications analysts
Physicians assistants
49
Social and human service assistants
49
48
Home health aides
47
Medical records and health information technicians
Physical therapist aides
46
Computer software engineers, applications
46
Computer software engineers, systems software
45
Physical therapist assistants
45
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Top ten occupations generally requiring a
bachelor’s degree or higher that are projected to
grow faster than average, by earnings
2002 average annual earnings
$151,153
Physicians and surgeons
$134,960
Chief executives
$122,230
Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers
Podiatrists
Lawyers
Optometrists
$107,430
$105,890
$95,440
Computer/information system mgrs $90,440
Marketing managers
$87,170
Health diagnosing and treating
$86,280
Sales managers
$86,110
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Top ten occupations generally requiring an
associate degree that are projected to grow
faster than average, by earnings
2002 average annual earnings
$60,110
Radiation therapists
All other computer specialists
$57,960
Dental hygienists
$57,790
Nuclear medicine technologists
$52,260
Registered nurses
Diagnostic medical sonographers
Forensic science technicians
$49,840
$43,280
$42,320
Computer support specialists
$40,700
Respiratory therapists
$40,590
Paralegal and legal assistants
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
$39,380
Top ten occupations generally requiring
long-term on-the-job training that are projected
to grow faster than average, by earnings
2002 average annual earnings
$53,549
Elevator installers and repairers
$50,460
Flight attendants
Musicians and singers
Transit and railroad police
$48,240
$45,750
Electricians
$43,910
Fine artists (painters, sculptors, illustrators)
$43,750
Police and sheriff patrol officers
$43,390
All other media and communication workers
$43,120
Actors
$42,820
Plumbers, pipefitters and steamfitters
$42,630
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
Top ten occupations generally requiring moderateterm on-the-job training that are projected to grow
faster than average, by earnings
2002 average annual earnings
Sales reps, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific
Sales reps, wholesale and mfg, non technical and scientific
$42,350
All other sales and related
Tapers
$40,550
All other communication equipment workers
$39,530
Sheet metal workers
$37,620
All other mechanics, installers and repairers
$37,580
Drywall and ceiling tile installers
$36,350
Painters, transportation equipment
$35,700
Hazardous materials removal workers
$35,610
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
$51,130
$63,4600
Colorado computer and mathematical
occupations will continue to grow at the
highest rate
41.5%
Computer & Mathematical
40.9%
Healthcare Support
39.1%
Healthcare Practitioners & Technical
35.6%
Education, Training, & Library
30.2%
Protective Services
29.6%
Community & Social Services
Personal Care & Service
29.1%
Business & Financial Operations
28.9%
28.5%
Building & Grounds Cleaning & Maintenance
27.6%
Life, Physical & Social Science
Management
25.4%
Architecture & Engineering
25.1%
Food Preparation & Serving Related
24.5%
Colorado most job losses 2002-2012
-630
Word Processors and Typists
-470
Electrical and Electronic Equipment Assemblers
-300
Computer Operators
-290
Telemarketers
-240
Data Entry Keyers
Loan Interviewers and Clerks
-230
-190
Brokerage Clerks
-180
Travel Agents
-160
Order Clerks
-150
Bindery Workers
Prepress Technicians and Workers
-120
-80
Meter Readers, Utilities
-40
Nuclear Engineers
-30
Communications Equipment Operators, All Other
-20
Radio Mechanics
Source: Colorado Labor Market Information
In Colorado expect a slight increase in
the proportion of jobs requiring
Bachelor's degrees or higher
683 thousand
jobs
1,614
thousand jobs
22%
24%
8%
8%
70%
2002
68%
2012
896 thousand
jobs
1,937
thousand jobs
In Colorado, about 30% of job growth
will be from positions requiring a
post-secondary education
First professional degree
Doctoral degree
Master's degree
Bachelor's degree or higher
Post-secondary education less than B.A.
Work related training
5,510
10,896
8,400
29,010
Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experienc
105,190
Bachelor's degree
30,780
Associate degree
Postsecondary vocational training
22,580
Work experience in a related occupation
39,510
Long-term on-the-job training
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training
31,270
83,660
168,900
Most job openings: Bachelor’s
degree or higher 2002-2012
1420
General and Operations Managers
Management Analysts
500
340
Financial Managers
Sales Managers
300
Computer and Information Systems Managers
290
Engineering Managers
250
Medical and Health Services Managers
210
Administrative Services Managers
200
Chief Executives
190
Education Administrators, Elementary and Secondary School
180
Marketing Managers
170
Human Resources Managers
120
Education Administrators, Postsecondary
90
Vocational Education Teachers, Secondary School
80
Advertising and Promotions Managers
80
Source: Colorado Labor Market Information
Web sites
• Colorado Labor Market Information
http://www.coworkforce.com/lmi
• Occupational Outlook Handbook
http://www.bls.gov/oco/
• Career Guide to Industries
http://www.bls.gov/oco/cg/
• Occupational Outlook Quarterly
http://www.bls.gov/opub/ooq/ooqhome.htm
For More Information:
303.318.8852
303.318.8870
[email protected]
www.coworkforce.com/lmi