Transcript Understanding and Protecting Our Home Planet

Science Mission
Directorate
NASA: Earth Science Initiatives and Plans
AMS Public-Private Partnership Forum
April 22 , 2008
Jack A. Kaye, Ph.D.
Associate Director for Research
Earth Science Division
Overview of Talk
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2
Science Mission Directorate (SMD) Overview
Earth Science Division (ESD) Overview
NRC Decadal Survey and ESD Actions
Reserch Program
Summary
NASA’s Science Goals
• Study Earth from space to advance scientific
understanding and meet societal needs. (Earth
Science)
• Understand the Sun and its effects on Earth and the
solar system. (Heliophysics)
• Advance scientific knowledge of the origin and
history of the solar system, the potential for life
elsewhere, and the hazards and resources present
as humans explore space. (Planetary Science)
• Discover the origin, structure, evolution, and destiny
of the universe, and search for Earth-like planets.
(Astrophysics)
3
SMD and ESD Leadership
Changes
• Ed Weiler returns to HQ as Interim Associate Administrator for
SMD (4/7/08) following departure of S. Alan Stern
• Chuck Gay returns to HQ from GSFC as Deputy Associate
Administrator for SMD (Colleen Hartman departs for GWU on
IPA)
• Mike Luther returns to position as Deputy AA for Programs within
SMD (Todd May returns to MSFC)
• Roy Maizel named Deputy AA for Management
• John Mather steps down as Chief Scientist to return to GSFC
• Randy Friedl arrived at HQ (from JPL) as Deputy Chief Scientist
for Earth Science
• Steve Volz selected for position of ESD Associate Director for
Flight Programs
4
SMD’S Flight Program: January 2008
Launches by Calendar Year
Earth
Helio
Astro
Planetary
OSTM
OCO
Missions Led by International Partner Indicated By *
Airborne or Suborbital Missions Indicated By Italics
Glory
TWINS-B
CloudSat
CALIPSO
TWINS-A
CINDI
GPM Core
IBEX
BARREL
Science Mission
SDO
Directorate
ST-6
SMEX
* Planck
ST-7
LDCM
JWST
ICESat II
NuSTAR
SMAP
* ExoMars
Venture 1
Hinode
AIM
* Herschel
WISE
* Solar Orbiter ExoPlanet 1
ST-5
THEMIS
GLAST
Kepler
* Aquarius
LADEE
BARREL
Lunar MiniLander 1
* GPM Const
Solar Probe
Venture 2
ES Decadal 3
STEREO
Daw n
HST SM-4
SOFIA
NPP
GRAIL
RBSP
Lunar MiniLander 2
MMS
SMEX
New Frontiers
Discovery
New Horizons
Phoenix
* M3
MSL
LWS SET-1
Juno
SMEX
Mars Scout Aeronomy
Discovery
JDEM
Mars 2016
OPF
CY06
CY07
CY08
CY09
CY10
CY11
CY12
CY13
CY14
CY15
CY16
CY17
SMD FY09 Budget Highlights
• Increased commitment to Earth Science.
• 7 new mission starts (at least one per SMD science area)




Earth Science: SMAP and IceSat II (2012, 2015 launches)
Astrophysics: JDEM (launch in 2014/2015)
Heliophysics: Solar Probe Plus (launch in 2015)
Planetary: Outer Planets Flagship (launch by 2017) small lunar science
orbiter (launch by 2011), and lunar mini-landers (launch by 2014).
• Substantially increased astrophysics, heliophysics, and
planetary science R&A/MO&DA.
• Sharply increased budgets for suborbital rockets and balloons.
6
NASA and SMD President’s Budgets:
FY09-FY13
* FY2007
* FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
$16,231.0
$17,300.5
$17,610.7
$18,022.9
$18,457.0
$18,901.6
$19,355.4
$4,609.9
$1,198.5
$1,215.6
$1,365.0
$583.7
$247.2
$4,706.2
$1,280.3
$1,247.5
$1,337.5
$590.9
$250.0
$4,441.5
$1,367.5
$1,334.2
$1,164.5
$575.3
$4,482.0
$1,350.7
$1,410.1
$1,122.4
$598.9
$4,534.9
$1,250.9
$1,537.5
$1,057.1
$689.4
$4,643.4
$1,264.4
$1,570.0
$1,067.7
$741.2
$4,761.6
$1,290.3
$1,608.7
$1,116.0
$746.6
Aeronautics Research
Education
$593.8
$114.1
$511.7
$137.9
$446.5
$112.1
$447.5
$122.7
$452.4
$120.4
$456.7
$120.4
$467.7
$120.4
Exploration System s
Constellation System s
Advanced Capabilities
$2,837.6
$2,114.7
$722.9
$3,143.0
$2,471.9
$671.1
$3,500.5
$3,048.2
$452.3
$3,737.7
$3,252.8
$484.9
$7,048.2
$6,479.5
$568.7
$7,116.8
$6,521.3
$595.5
$7,666.8
$7,080.5
$586.3
Space Operations
Space Shuttle
International Space Station
Space and Flight Support (SFS)
$5,093.5
$3,295.3
$1,469.0
$329.2
$5,526.2
$3,266.7
$1,813.2
$446.3
$5,774.7
$2,981.7
$2,060.2
$732.8
$5,872.7
$2,983.6
$2,277.0
$612.1
$2,900.1
$95.7
$2,176.4
$628.0
$3,089.9
$2,788.5
$2,448.2
$641.7
$2,143.1
$645.4
Cross-Agency Support
Agency Managem ent and Operations
Institutional Investm ents
Congressionally Directed Item s
Center Managem ent and Operations
$2,949.9
$971.2
$223.8
$3,299.9
$945.6
$308.7
$3,323.9
$945.5
$331.7
$3,363.7
$939.8
$335.9
$3,436.1
$950.5
$330.4
$3,511.2
$961.3
$338.3
$1,754.9
$3,242.9
$830.2
$319.7
$80.0
$2,013.0
$2,045.6
$2,046.7
$2,088.0
$2,155.2
$2,211.6
$32.2
$32.6
$35.5
$36.4
$37.3
$38.3
$39.2
Total NASA
Science
Earth Science
Planetary Science
Astrophysics
Heliophysics
DSN / Ground Netw ork
Inspector General
7
* FY07-08
are consistent w ith IBPD, and exclude latest Operating Plans. Subsequent charts INCLUDE Operating Plans.
SMD Budget by Science Theme
$5,000
Ground Network / DSN
$4,500
$4,000
Earth Science
$3,500
$3,000
Astrophysics
$2,500
$2,000
$1,500
Planetary Science
$1,000
$500
Heliophysics
$0
8
FY2007
FY2008
FY2009
FY2010
FY2011
FY2012
FY2013
ESD Broader Governmental Context
• NASA Earth Science Supports Multiple Presidential
Initiatives
- Climate Change Science Program
- Earth Observations
- Ocean Action Plan
• Congressional Direction Addresses Several Aspects,
most notably linkage between NASA and NOAA, but
also other areas (ozone, land cover)
• NASA is part of NPOESS program, in particular
through the NPOESS Preparatory Project (NPP)
mission
• NASA supports several other CENR activities (Air
Quality, Water Availability and Quality, Disaster
Reduction, …)
9
FY09 ESD Budget Summary
(proposed)
($M)
Budget Line
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
Earth Sci. Res.* 380.6
388.2
390.6
400.7
409.3
Earth Sys. Miss. 677.9
661.5
583.2
563.6
589.6
88.6
58.8
37.4
50.0
54.9
Earth Sci. MMO 140.5
159.0
157.9
166.5
170.9
ESSP
Earth Sci. Tech.
46.1
49.3
50.6
51.6
52.8
Appl. Sci.
33.8
33.8
31.3
32.1
32.8
TOTAL
10
1367.5 1350.7
*Includes Directorate Support
1250.9 1264.4 1290.3
FY09 President’s Earth Science Budget
Request
* FY07
1,152.3
* FY08
1,284.2
FY09
1,367.5
FY10
1,350.7
FY11
1,250.9
FY12
1,264.4
FY13
1,290.3
Earth Systematic Missions
GPM
Glory
LDCM
NPP
OSTM
Decadal Survey Missions
Other Missions and Data Analysis
396.2
23.8
91.3
33.9
35.7
42.6
0.6
168.2
548.3
74.4
47.8
133.0
58.8
28.7
33.0
172.7
677.9
125.8
29.7
139.4
94.4
8.0
103.2
177.4
661.5
161.7
9.1
127.1
52.2
7.8
116.2
187.5
583.2
129.8
9.8
96.0
8.6
7.7
150.0
181.2
563.6
140.0
2.7
11.3
8.9
7.3
250.2
143.1
569.6
113.3
Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP)
OCO
Aquarius
Other Missions and Data Analysis
156.9
76.1
60.9
19.9
105.6
47.3
30.7
27.7
88.6
25.4
33.8
29.4
58.8
9.0
27.9
21.9
37.4
1.4
5.1
30.8
50.0
54.9
4.0
46.0
2.9
52.0
Earth Science Multi-Mission Operations
168.0
156.0
140.5
159.1
157.9
166.5
170.9
Earth Science Research
Research and Analysis
Computing and Management
Airborne Science
Near Earth Object Observations
348.6
231.6
91.3
25.6
380.4
242.5
103.4
31.1
3.4
380.6
245.7
104.9
26.3
3.7
388.2
254.0
104.7
25.7
3.8
390.6
255.5
107.3
24.0
3.8
400.7
260.3
110.1
26.4
3.9
409.3
266.5
111.8
27.0
4.0
24.4
58.3
45.9
48.0
33.8
46.1
33.8
49.2
31.3
50.6
32.1
51.6
32.8
52.8
FY09 President's Budget *
Applied Sciences
Earth Science Technology
* FY07 and11FY08 reflect latest Operating Plan, in FY09 structure
2.7
9.2
7.3
290.7
146.3
Earth Science Operating
Missions
Science Mission
Directorate
Senior Review Process
• Second Earth Science Sr. Review conducted 4/07 to evaluate operating
missions that are beyond their baseline mission
- Continuation of core missions
- (Re)Allocation of resources between missions to optimize benefits
- Identify and fund enhanced science
- Based on Space Science Sr. Review, 2006 NRC Mission Extension
report
• Changes from 2005 Earth Science Sr. Review
- CoMRP panel explicitly evaluated contributions of NASA research
missions to national operational objectives
- Explicit emphasis on core vs. enhanced mission elements
• Summary of conclusions
- All missions extended through FY08-09
- All but ACRIMSAT recommended for extension through FY11
(ACRIMSAT pending comparative analyses with SORCE)
- All basic mission proposals accepted approximately as-is
- Few (~2) enhanced mission proposals accepted
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Missions in Formulation and
Implementation
OSTM
6/2008
OCO
12/2008
GLORY
3-6/09
AQUARIUS
5/2010
NPP
6/2010
ICESat-II
14
2015
SMAP
2012
GPM
6/2013, 11/2014
LDCM
7/2011
Earth Science Missions in Development
and Formulation
NPOESS Preparatory Project^
Strategic mission - Systematic measurement
Required for continuity of several key climate
measurements between EOS and NPOESS
Landsat Data Continuity Mission
Strategic mission - Systematic measurement
Required for continuity of long-term global land
cover change data; plan for post-LDCM
acquisition operational agency in work
Ocean Surface Topography Mission*^
Strategic mission - Systematic measurement
Required for continuity ocean altimetry; planned
as part of a transition to operational agencies
Glory
Strategic mission - Initiate New Measurement and
Continue Systematic Measurement
Addresses high priority objective of the US
Climate Change Science Program and provide
continuity for total solar irradiance
Orbiting Carbon Observatory
Competed mission - Earth System Science
Pathfinder
First dedicated global measurement of CO2 from
space
Aquarius*
Competed mission - Earth System Science
Pathfinder
First dedicated global measurement of sea
surface salinity from space
Global Precipitation Measurement*
Initializes a systematic measurement
Extend spatial coverage to global and temporal
coverage to every 3 hours with constellation
15
* Represents International Partnership
^ Represents Interagency Partnership
Decadal Survey Recommendations
• Overarching Recommendation
- The U.S. government, working in concert with the private sector, academe,
the public, and its international partners, should renew its investment in Earth
observing systems and restore its leadership in Earth science and
applications.
• NOAA and NASA should undertake a set of 17 recommended missions,
phased over the next decade
• NOAA research to operations
- Vector ocean winds
- GPS radio occultation temperature, water vapor and electron density profiles
- Total solar irradiance/and Earth Radiation (NPP) and restored to NPOESS
• NASA
- 15 missions in small, medium and large categories
- Also need to invest in R&A, applied sciences, technology, ground networks,
airborne science (including UASs)
16
16
NASA Near-Term Missions (4/15 total)
Decadal
Survey
Mission
Mission Description
Orbit
Instruments
CLARREO
(NASA
portion)
Solar and Earth radiation:
spectrally resolved forcing and
response of the climate system
LEO,
Precessing
Absolute, spectrallyresolved
interferometer
SMAP
Soil moisture and freeze/thaw for
weather and water cycle processes
LEO, SSO
L-band radar
L-band radiometer
ICESat-II
Ice sheet height changes for
climate change diagnosis
LEO, NonSSO
Laser altimeter
DESDynI
Surface and ice sheet deformation
for understanding natural hazards
and climate; vegetation structure
for ecosystem health
LEO, SSO
L-band InSAR
Laser altimeter
17
NASA Mid-Term Missions (5/15 total)
Decadal
Survey
Mission
Mission Description
Orbit
HyspIRI
Land surface composition for agriculture
and mineral characterization; vegetation
types for ecosystem health
LEO, SSO
Hyperspectral
spectrometer
ASCENDS
Day/night, all-latitude, all-season CO2
column integrals for climate emissions
LEO, SSO
Multifrequency laser
SWOT
Ocean, lake, and river water levels for
ocean and inland water dynamics
LEO, SSO
Ka-band wide swath radar
C-band radar
GEO-CAPE
ACE
Atmospheric gas columns for air quality
forecasts; ocean color for coastal
ecosystem health and climate emissions
Aerosol and cloud profiles for climate
and water cycle; ocean color for open
ocean biogeochemistry
18
GEO
LEO, SSO
Instruments
High and low spatial
resolution hyperspectral
imagers
Backscatter lidar
Multiangle polarimeter
Doppler radar
NASA Far-Term Missions (6/15 total)
Decadal
Survey
Mission
Mission Description
Orbit
Instruments
LIST
Land surface topography for landslide
hazards and water runoff
LEO, SSO
Laser altimeter
PATH
High frequency, all-weather
temperature and humidity soundings
for weather forecasting and SST*
GEO
GRACE-II
High temporal resolution gravity fields
for tracking large-scale water
movement
LEO, SSO
Microwave or laser
ranging system
SCLP
Snow accumulation for fresh water
availability
LEO, SSO
Ku and X-band radars
K and Ka-band
radiometers
GACM
Ozone and related gases for
intercontinental air quality and
stratospheric ozone layer prediction
LEO, SSO
UV spectrometer
IR spectrometer
Microwave limb sounder
3D-Winds
(Demo)
Tropospheric winds for weather
forecasting and pollution transport
LEO, SSO
Doppler lidar
MW array spectrometer
*Cloud-independent, high temporal resolution, lower accuracy SST to complement, not replace, global
operational
high-accuracy SST measurement
19
Decadal Survey Ongoing Activities
• Completed “building block” calibrations of NRC missions
-
Ensure consistent, rational basis for costs
Full (LCC) mission cost (including NASA science teams/analyses, mission extension)
2 additional independent cost-estimation efforts (Aerospace, LaRC IPAO)
• Developed joint (with NOAA) mitigation strategies for NPOESS climate sensors
-
NASA-NOAA study for OSTP
NRC/SSB Workshop (science impacts, priorities, approaches)
Limb Sensor restored to OMPS on NPP; CERES being restored to NPP
• Discussions with International Partners
-
Determine common interests, complementary capabilities
JAXA/METI, CNES, CSA, ESA, CEOS, WMO/SP, DLR meetings held
-
Bilateral new mission working groups initiating (CNES, JAXA, DLR)
• Implemented “Early Mission” workshops
-
Confirm/refine match between science objective and notional mission
Determine necessary “context” measurements for science objective
Community involvement, HQ led
Workshops comleted Summer 2007 for SMAP, CLARREO, ICESat-II, DESDynI - reports available
online
• Targeted Instrument Incubator Program (IIP) solicitation to Decadal Survey
missions (all 3 tiers)
• Beginning to Move Out on SMAP and ICESat II with progressively smaller
amounts for remainder of Tier I (CLARREO, DESDynI) and Tier 2 missions
20
Earth Science New Initiative
NEW vs. PREVIOUS (hatched) MISSION PROFILE
21
Earth Science Research - FY08-FY13*
(in $M)
FY08
Research and Analysis
FY09
FY10
FY11
FY12
FY13
133.9
136.9
144.4
146.4
149.8
153.5
EOS Science
62.4
62.3
62.6
61.5
62.3
63.7
HECC
38.9
41.9
42.8
43.8
44.8
45.9
Airborne Science
31.1
26.3
25.7
24.0
26.4
27.0
Scientific Computing
20.0
18.9
18.4
18.6
19.4
19.9
Space Geodesy/SLR
11.3
14.4
14.5
14.6
15.0
15.1
Global Modeling & Assimilation Office
10.8
10.1
10.4
10.6
11.3
11.6
Near Earth Object Observations
3.4
3.7
3.8
3.8
3.9
4.0
Ozone Trends Science
2.9
3.2
3.2
3.1
2.4
2.5
Carbon Cycle Science
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.5
Mission Science Guest Investigator
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.9
1.0
Total
317.8
320.8
* From current data base - 2/11/08; does not include Directorate Support
22
328.9
329.6
338.7
1.0
346.7
ROSES 08 Summary
Est. Am't/Yr
Funding
Element
Name
Due Date
($M)
Est. # Sel.
period (yrs)
A.2
Terrestrial Ecology
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
A.4
Land Cover/Land Use Change
10/1/08
A.5
Biodiversity (new)
6/26/08
2 5 to 12
1.75
4
~7 to 10
3
Ocean Biology and
A.6
Biogeochemistry
A.7
Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction
A.8
Physical Oceanography
6/2/08
~2.5
~ 10 to 20
5/23/08
~8
~ 30 to 40
4
6/26/08
~1.5
~ 10
4
~2
~15
4
8/19/08
~1.5
~7
6/16/08
~3
~ 15 to 20
3
7/15/08
~8
~ 30 to 25
4
4 or shorter
Ocean Salinity Science Team
A.9
(new)
10/30/08
NASA Energy and Water Cycle
A.13
Study - Water Quality (new)
4 or shorter
Atmospheric Composition:
A.14
Laboratory Research
Atmospheric Compsition: Surface,
Balloon, and Airborne
A.15
Observations
~ 10 (+ 5
A.16
Hurricane Science Research
5/16/08
~ 1.6
@$20K)
TBD
TBD
TBD
8/13/08
~6
20 to 23
up tp 4
8/27/08
~1
9 to 15
1 to 1.5
8/29/08
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
TBD
4
Advanced Concepts in Space
A.17
Geodesy
TBD (Y/N)
Decision Support Through Earth
A.18
Science Research Results
Earth Sciene Applications
A.19
Feasibility Studies
Advanced information Systems
A.20
Technology
A.21
Adanced Component Technology
23
TBD
ROSES 07 New Elements
• Airborne Instrument Technology Transition - bridge gap between
ESTO/IIP and availability of “hardened” instruments to support
regular field work ($2.6M in FY08)
- Proposals involve significant intercenter and community
(industry/academia/other government agency) partnerships
• Accelerating Operational Use of Research Data - provide
opportunities for community participation of transition science
(R-to-O) that complements Joint Center for Satellite Data
Assimilation and Short-Term Regional Prediction Center, and
introduces focused oceanic component (~$1.3M in FY08)
• Space Archaeology - provide opportunities for community
participation that complements work at centers (esp. MSFC)
(~$0.7M in FY08)
• EarthScope - provide opportunity for NASA community to apply
InSAR and geodetic imaging to interagency EarthScope initiative
(~$1.5M/yr by FY09)
24
ROSES 08 New and Enhanced Elements
• Biodiversity - first NASA solicitation focused exclusively on
biodiversity studies using remote sensing data - addresses
terrestrial, marine, and aquatic species (~$1.75M)
• NEWS/Water Quality - develop/demonstrate feasibility of remote
sensing for water quality, including algorithms to remotely sense
inland and coastal water quality and provide the scientific basis
for next-generation water quality remote sensing (~$1.5M)
• Ocean Salinity Research Team - prepare for availability of
Aquarius data (~$2M)
• Dynamical Ice Sheet Modeling - enhanced, focused effort as part
of Modeling, Analysis, and Prediction element (~$1M)
25
Statistics of Recent Selections:
Selection Rates
ROSES 07 Selection Rates
6
5
# R O S E S E l e m e n ts
4
3
2
1
0
< 20
26
20-33
34-50
Selection Rate (%)
51-75
>75
NRC Study: Earth Observations from Space The First 50 Years of Scientific Achievement
•
•
Report Conclusions (summarized)
- Daily synoptic view of Earth from space has revolutionized Earth
studies and helped society manage environment and resources
- Long time series are required and the value of data sets increases
with time
- Scientific advances result from science-technology synergy, and
societal benefit of measurements increases with increasing
accuracy
- Have indisputable benefit of multiple synergistic observations
(satellite and non-satellite) linked with models
- To achieve full benefit of observations, need infrastructure (models,
computing, ground networks, personnel)
- Full and open access to global data capitalizes on investment
- Space observations have catalyzed interdisciplinary science and
can be expected to lead to remarkable discoveries in the future
Summary Statement : ”The decadal survey and this committee both
recommend that the nation’s commitment to continue Earth
observations from space be renewed.”
27
Summary
• SMD has vibrant program and has increased planned launch
rates in all four science divisions
• ESD addresses fundamental scientific questions and important
societal objectives in support of Administration initiatives
• ESD is moving forward with missions in formulation and
development and beginning to move out on NRC decadal survey
thanks to FY09 budget initiative (and FY08 funding from
Congress)
• ESD Research program (and related programs in Applied
Science, Technology, and Data) provide numerous opportunities
for community participation to advance science, work with
missions, and utilize data
• Partnerships are critical to success of ESD
- International
- Interagency
- Cross-center
- Government/Academia/Industry
28