Transcript Document

BEA’s Industry Accounts:
Improved Measures of Outputs, Inputs,
Value Added
Erich H. Strassner
World KLEMS Conference
Harvard University
August 19-20th, 2010
www.bea.gov
and
Balanced I-O Framework
INDUSTRIES
Mining and
Construction
Manufacturing
Trade and
Transportation
Utilities
FINAL USES
Finance,
Insurance, and
Real Estate
Other
Personal
Consumption
Expenditure
Private Fixed
Investment
Change in
Private
Inventories
Net Exports
Government
Consumption
and Investment
Total
Commodity
Output and
Value Added
Mining and
Construction
COMMODITIES
Manufacturing
Trade and
Transportation
Utilities
Finance,
Insurance, and
Real Estate
Other
VALUE ADDED
Compensation
Taxes on
Production and
Imports
Gross
Operating
Surplus
Total Industry Output and
Final Uses
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2
2010 Comprehensive Revision
 Time-series annual I-O accounts,
2008
1998-
 Incorporated 1997/2002 benchmark I-O
accounts and 2009 NIPA revision
 Expanded annual data on business
expenses by industry
 Improved measures of price change for
the services sector
www.bea.gov
3
GDP and Real VA for All Industries
5
4.5
4
Percent Changes
3.5
3
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1999
2000
2001
2002
GDP
www.bea.gov
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Real VA for All Industries
4
Measuring Output
 Industry and commodity output based
on a variety of sources
 Economic Census data
 Census annual surveys (ASM, SAS, etc.)
 Trade association data and data from other
government agencies
 Detailed commodity distributions
retained from benchmark estimates;
manufacturing detail updated annually
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More Accurate Time Series of Output
Misreporting Output for NAICS 812110
2,900
2,700
Millions of dollars
2,500
2,300
2,100
1,900
1,700
1,500
1997
1998
1999
Annual Series
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2000
2001
2002
Benchmark Levels
2003
2004
2005
2006
"Benchmarked" Annual Series
6
More Accurate Price Measurement
Real Gross Output for Retail Trade
9
7
Percent Changes
5
3
1
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
-1
-3
-5
Previously Published
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Published
7
Measuring Intermediate Inputs—nominals
 Benchmark estimates based on Census
data (~70%) and other data sources
 KLEMS input assignments based on 1997
and 2002 benchmark I-O accounts
 Definitions consistent with the Census of
Manufactures and Business Expenses Survey
 Annual controls based on Census “core
expense” initiative
www.bea.gov
8
Economy-wide KLEMS shares
2008
Purchased Services
25%
Capital 24%
Materials 18%
Labor 30%
Energy 3%
www.bea.gov
9
Measuring Intermediate Inputs—prices
 Domestic and imported intermediate
inputs deflated separately
 Nominal weights based on import “use”
tables
 BLS Producer Price Indexes
 BLS international price program
 Aggregation using Fisher index number
formulas
www.bea.gov
10
Measuring Inputs—Importance of Imports
Imports as a Share of U.S. Domestic Supply
10
9
8
7
Imported Intermediate Inputs as a Share of Total Imports
Percent
6
5
Percent
4
3
2
62
60
58
56
54
52
50
48
46
44
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
1
0
1998
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1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
11
Imported Materials’ share of Manufacturing inputs
25.0
Percent
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Annual Industry Accounts International Accounts
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Measuring Value Added
 Value added = Gross Output –
Intermediate Input
 Value added = Compensation +
Gross Operating Surplus +
Taxes on production
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13
Quality-Weighted VA in Benchmark Year
Income-based
Combined
Production-based
59,000
60,000
61,000
62,000
63,000
64,000
65,000
66,000
67,000
Value added (Millions of dollars)
www.bea.gov
14
Looking Ahead—future extensions
 Time-series consistency of Benchmarks
 Historical I-O accounts, 1947-1997
 BEA/BLS work on prototype industrylevel production account
 Longer term: KLEMS statistics available
prior to 1998; industry production
account available for earlier years
www.bea.gov
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