Transcript ACRP 04-08 ppt - Transportation Research Board

ACRP 4-08 - Improved Models for Risk Assessment of
Runway Safety Areas (RSA)
Objective: develop and validate a user-friendly software analysis tool that can
be used by airport and industry stakeholders to quantify risk and support
planning and engineering decisions when determining RSA requirements to
meet an acceptable level of safety for various types and sizes of airports
Completion Date: 02/15/2011
July 17, 2015
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– Mr. Dana L. Ryan – Cleveland Hopkins Airport System
• ACRP Staff Representatives
– Ms. Theresia H. Schatz – Program Officer
– Mr. Joseph J. Brown-Snell – Program Associate
• Members
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Mr. Steven G. Benson - Coffman Associates
Ms. Diana S. Dolezal - Greater Toronto Airports Authority
Mr. Alex M. Kashani - Metropolitan Washington Airports Authority
Ms. Deborah T. Marino - Greater Orlando Aviation Authority
Mr. Phillip C. Miller - California DOT
Dr. Xiaosong "Sean" Xiao - Tetra Tech Inc.
• Liaison Representatives
– Dr. Michel Hovan - Federal Aviation Administration
– Mr. Matthew J. Griffin - Airports Council International - North America
– Dr. Richard Pain – Transportation Research Board
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• Chair
Project Panel
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Project Team
• Principal Investigator
– Manuel Ayres – Applied Research Associates
• Co-Principal Investigator
– Richard Speir – Applied Research Associates
• Project Manager
– Hamid Shirazi – Applied Research Associates
• Team Members
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Regis Carvalho – Applied Research Associates
Robert E. David – RED & Associates
Derek Wong – Consultant
John Gadzinski – Four Winds Consulting
Jim Hall - Applied Research Associates
Edith Arambula – Applied Research Associates
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Briefing Outline
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Background
Project Objective
Project Tasks
Data & Models
Risk Approach
Consequence Approach
Analysis Software
Validation
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Background
• 55% of jet aircraft fatal accidents occurred
during landings and takeoffs (Boeing 2010)
• Aircraft overruns, veer-offs and undershoots
account for most accidents in the immediate
vicinity of the runway
• Runway safety areas (RSA) are capable of
mitigating the consequences of many of such
events
• Many airports were built before current RSA
standards were set and some airports can not
accomodate larger areas due to physical and
environmental restrictions
• FAA has embarked upon a program (Order
5200-8) to improve non-standard RSA
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Alternatives to Improve RSAs
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Extend the RSA
Modify or relocate the runway
Use declared runway distances
Implement arresting systems (e.g.
EMAS)
Goal was to develop methodology with capability to
analyze either or combination of these alternatives
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Project Goals
• Update the ACRP Report 3 accident/incident
database and collect data on aircraft runway veer-off
events
• Develop risk models for frequency and location for
each type of incident: landing overruns (LDOR);
landing undershoots (LDUS); landing veer-offs
(LDVO), takeoff overruns (TOOR), and takeoff veeroffs (TOVO).
• Develop approach to evaluate declared runway
distances on risk
• Develop approach to assess impact of EMAS on risk
• Develop approach to model incident consequences
• Develop user-friendly analysis software
• Validate the new approach and software
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Project Tasks
Literature Review
Collection and Preparation of Data
 Accident & Incident
 Aircraft
 Normal Operations
Development of Risk
Models
Development of Test
Plan
Development of
Software Outline
Interim Meeting
Execution of Test Plan
 Select airports
 Collect airport data
 Run analysis for selected airports
 Validate models & software
Development of
Analysis Software
Testing of Analysis
Software
Revised Software
Final report
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Database of Accidents and Incidents
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Organized in Microsoft Access
1414 events, 300+ fields
Worldwide sources: NTSB, FAA AIDS, FAA/NASA ASRS, Canada
TSB, UK AAIB, French BEA, Australian TSB, New Zealand TAIC,
Singapore AAIB, Ireland AAIU, Spain CIAIAC
Date, location, summary, airport/runway data, flight data, weather
conditions, consequences, wreckage location, causal and contributing
factors
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Events Counts of Collected Data
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Three-Part Risk Model Approach
 Three -Part Risk Model
Event
probability
operating conditions
(airplane performance, type of
operation, runway distance
available and elevation,
weather conditions)
Location
probability
RSA characteristics,
geometry,
presence of EMAS
Risk Classification
Consequences
type, size and
location of
obstacles
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Frequency Models
Based on accident, incident, normal operations and aircraft
performance data
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P{ Accident_ Occurence} 
1  eb0 b1 X1 b2 X 2 b3 X 3 ...
Stop Location
Probability Distributions
RSA
x
y
Location Models – Example for Overruns
y
RSA
Prob=exp((-.00321)*X**(.984941))
R2=99.8%
1.0
P{Location x}  e
P{Loc > x1}
axn
Probability of Stopping Beyond X
Probability location
Exceeds x
x
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
0
400
800
1200
1600
2000
Distance X from Runway End (ft)
rwy end
x1
Distance x from runway end
X
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Consequence Approach
Wingspan (WS)
1/3 WS
a)
Obstacle
Wingspan (WS)
1/3 WS
b)
Obstacle
Lateral Location
Probability Distribution
Psc
Obstacle
y
w1
yc
yf
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Software Capabilities
Risk of Accident - Summary of Results
Overall Results
Risk Analysis
Summary of Results by Runway
Summary Table
Risk in Events per Million Movements
Avrg # of Years to
Avrg # of Years to % Ops Above
Critical Incident for
Critical Incident
TLS
TLS
Average
Probability
Accident
RSA
Type of Accident
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24
LDOR
4.57E-08
6.09E-08
LDOR
5.6E-08
>100
1.7
>100
TOOR
3.36E-07
2.50E-07
TOOR
2.8E-07
>100
4.8
>100
LDUS
1.50E-07
1.56E-07
3.0
LDUS
>100
LDVO
1.69E-06
2.69E-06
9.0
>100
TOVO
9.04E-07
8.16E-07
TOVO
8.7E-07
>100
17.8
>100
Total
1.7E-06
1.5E-07
>100
18.0
>100
LDVO
>100
2.0E-06
>100
Airport Annual Volume:
Average # of Years Between Accidents
RSA
Type of Accident
06
24
Expected Traffic growth rate:
0.00%
LDOR
>100
>100
Target Level of Safety (TLS):
1.0E-06
TOOR
>100
>100
4,500
LDUS
>100
>100
Airport:
Ugnu-Kuparuk
LDVO
>100
>100
Date of Analysis:
11/24/2010
TOVO
>100
Analyst:
Hamid Shirazi
RSA
Type of Accident
Histogram of Total Risk
7000
100%
Frequency
Frequency of Ops
2000
80%
NOD
70%
60%
2230
TOOR
2235
LDUS
2230
LDVO
2230
1000TOVO
2235
Total
11160
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
06
24
LDOR
1.07
1.95
TOOR
6.20
4.13
LDUS
3.03
2.95
LDVO
9.10
8.85
TOVO
17.87
17.68
Summary of Operations Challenging the RSAs
Movements Challenging each RSA
RSA
Type of Accident
06
24
LDOR
746
1484
TOOR
758
1477
LDUS
1484
746
LDVO
1484
TOVO
1477
758
Total
5949
5211
e
6
6
6
or
6
E-0
M
1.5
7
E-0
E-0
1.4
1.2
7
7
E-0
1.1
7
E-0
E-0
9.8
8.5
7
E-0
7
E-0
E-0
E-0
7.2
5.9
4.6
E-0
E-0
2.0
3.3
7
0%
8
0
Cumulative % Ops
Accident
4000 LDOR
3000
90%
Cumulative %
6000
5000
>100
Percent Events Above TLS
Note: fields in yellow may be changed by user
6.5
• RSA risk analysis
• Risk of aircraft overruns, veer-off
and undershoots
• Consideration of specific airport
operational and weather conditions
• Assess impact of declared runway
distances
• Assess impact of Engineered
Material Arresting Systems (EMAS)
• User-defined RSA and EMAS
configuration
• Consideration of obstacles
(dimensions, location, type)
Probability Interval
Notes
1 - Fields in orange may be directly changed in spreadsheet by user
2 - Results for overrun and undershoot consider all movements
challenging each RSA adjacent to the ends of each runway
3 - The total risk for the airport is per movement (landing and taking-off)
4 - Each takeoff will challenge the RSA adjacent to the departure end for
overruns and the lateral safety areas for veer-offs
5 - Each landing will challenge the RSA adjacent to the arrival end for
undershoots, the RSA adjacent to the departure end for overruns and the
lateral safety areas for veer-off
6 - Histogram for the whole airport is for any type of event and include
each movement challenging the RSA
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746
Field Test Airports for Validation
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Miami International (MIA)
Ted Stevens Anchorage International (ANC)
Lambert-St Louis International (STL)
Spokane International (GEG)
Joe Foss Field (FSD)
Yeager (CRW)
Deer Valley International (DVT)
Ft Lauderdale Executive (FXE)
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Validation
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Incidents
Accidents
Opportunities to Use the New Tool
• Analysis of RSA alternatives in support of
cost/benefit studies
• Prioritization of RSA improvements within an
airport
• Statewide and Nationwide RSA improvement
programs
• Support for decision making
• Evaluate impact of modifying RSA standards
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