Transcript Slide 1

A demographic perspective to understand
fertility barriers of Hong Kong
Paul Yip
Department of Statistics and
Actuarial Science, The University of
Hong Kong
Outlines

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
An overview of the population and marriage
distribution
An analysis of Total fertility rate (the number
babies born to a woman over the child bearing
period)
Opportunities and challenges
Population size of Hong Kong SAR
Million
8
Average annual growth
rate
1971 - 76
2.34
1976 - 81
3.23
1981 - 86
1.53
5
1986 - 91
0.62
4
1991 - 96
1.80
1996 - 01
0.94
2001 - 04
0.84
7
6
3
2
1
0
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2004
6.0
120000
100000
5.0
80000
4.0
Replacement level (2.1)
40000
2.0
20000
1.0
TFR
0.0
0
TFR
3.0
60000
Live births
Number of births and TFRs of HK,
1961 - 2004
Number of Births
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979
1978
1977
1976
1975
1974
1973
1972
1971
1970
1969
1968
1967
1966
1965
1964
1963
1962
1961
Total fertility rate, HKSAR and other low fertility
economies, 1971-2000
4
HK
3.5
Singapore
per woman
3
Finland
2.5
2
1.5
1
0.5
0
1971
1976
1981
1986
Year
1991
1996
Net nuptiality (female), Hong Kong,
1981 and 2001
1981
Age(x)
l(x)
nL(x)
l'(x)
2001
nL'(x)
m
l(x)
nL(x)
l'(x)
nL'(x)
m
0
1000
4992
1000
4991
5
998
4988
996
4981
10
997
4982
996
4979
15
996
4974
996
4786
3.8
995
4976
995
4924
1.0
20
994
4963
919
3327
33.0
995
4971
974
4343
12.6
25
992
4951
412
1151
76.8
994
4965
763
3072
38.1
30
989
4933
48
169
96.6
992
4957
466
1926
61.1
35
985
4906
20
78
98.4
991
4946
305
1390
71.9
40
978
4863
11
51
99.0
988
4928
251
1181
76.0
45
967
4799
9
983
221
Age-specific fertility rates of Hong
Kong, 1971-2004
Live birhts per 1,000 women
300
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
2004
250
200
150
100
50
0
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
60%
50%
40%
30%
1st birth
2nd birth
20%
3rd birth +
10%
0%
2003
2001
1999
1997
1995
1993
1991
1989
1987
1985
1983
1981
Percentage of live births by order of live birth
Percentage distribution of live births by
order of live birth, 1981-2003
Total marital fertility rates
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The TMFR depends on age of marriage
Overall, the TMFR has also decreased for
the past 2 decades
In 2001, the TMFR for resident women
was around 2 (close to the replacement
level), given that they got married at 20
However, the figure would shrink to 1.6 if
they got married at 25
Marriage age postponement
Median age at first marriage by sex, HKSAR, 1971-2000
32
30
Age
28
26
24
22
Bride
Groom
20
1971
1976
1981
1986
Year
1991
1996
Marriage squeeze phenomenon in
Hong Kong (1)
Number of
never married
Age
group
1971
1976
1981
1986
1991
1996
2001
Man
25 - 34
108
141
219
274
290
313
296
35 - 44
40
37
39
44
61
90
112
45 - 54
13
17
24
21
17
21
34
25 - 54
161
195
282
339
368
424
442
20 - 29
128
184
275
325
311
326
337
30 - 39
9
9
26
49
84
122
141
40 - 49
8
6
6
7
17
29
56
20 - 49
145
199
307
381
412
477
534
-16
4
25
42
44
53
92
Woman
Deficit(-)/surplus(+)
of single woman
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Assuming the 2001 marriage pattern
prevails, it is projected that about 29.7% of
males and 24% of female would remain
single when they reach 40
Marriage squeeze phenomenon in
Hong Kong (2)
Single women in
excess (,000)
100
92
80
60
53
42
44
1986
1991
40
25
20
-16
4
1971
1976
0
-20
-40
1981
1996
2001
Year
Total marital fertility rates by age of
marriage in Hong Kong, 1981 - 2001
Live births per
1,000 women
4000
1981
3500
1986
3000
1991
1996
2500
2001
2000
1500
1000
500
0
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
Age of marriage
Total marital fertility rates of Hong
Kong by age of getting married, 2001
2500
2000
1500
1000
500
0
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
Age of getting married
Live births of Hong Kong by
residence of parents, 1991 - 2004
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Resident parents
Mainland mother and resident father
Non resident parents
Proportions of live births in Hong
Kong by residence of parents, 1991 –
2004
100%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
Non resident parents
Mainland mother, resident f ather
Resident parents
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
7.27 9.638 12.55 12.93 10.24 9.701 9.273 10.75
92.73 90.36 87.45 87.07 89.76 84.84 84.97 83.92
13.2 14.26
2001
2002
2003
2004
0.336 1.755 3.343 7.064
15
14.89 16.98 18.07
82.4 81.83 80.61 79.96 76.47 71.78
Number of live births in Hong Kong by
residence of mothers, 1981 - 2003
100000
Non-resident mothers
90000
Resident mothers
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
81
82
83
84
85
86 87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97 98
99
00
01
02
03
Reasons for decline of TFR
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Reduction on marital fertility rate
Increase in the number of spinsterhood
Late marriage (median age on first
marriage: 30 males and 27 females)
Imbalance of the supply and demand
(bachelors vs. spinsters) about 90,000 of
women (age 20-44) outnumbers men (2549)
WHY? A study on Barriers to
Fertility for married couples
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Knowledge Attitude and Practice (KAP) study
by the Family Planning Association
A similar study entitled “Barriers on Fertility”
Yip, Lee and Lam, (2002)
The three major concerns:
1. Unfavorable Economic condition
2. Unsatisfactorily Education service
3. Individual preference.
Number of spinsterhood is increasing
Proportion of ever married men and women, HKSAR,
1971-2000
100
90
80
Percentage
70
60
50
1971(men)
2000(men)
1971(women)
2000(women)
40
30
20
24
29
34
39
Age group
44
49
Proportion of ever married persons
Figure 1: Proportion of ever married people by sex,
HKSAR, 1981 and 1999
120
Male (1981)
Female (1981)
100
Male (1999)
Female (1999)
Proportion
80
60
40
20
0
15
20
25
30
Age
35
40
45
Fertility
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Do we have a problem? Yes!
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Is it a tempo problem? No!
Speed and Magnitude of the
reduction of the Fertility
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It is the speed and the magnitude of the
reduction of the fertility rate,
What can we learn from the overseas
countries
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Different measures have been
implemented in many countries
which have experienced low
fertility (i.e. Australia, France,
Italy, Japan, Singapore, Sweden
and USA) that inhibit fertility
decline.
Are they relevant in Hong Kong?
Total fertility rates of Hong Kong and
selected low fertility economies, 1995 – 2002
Year
Asian economies
Non-Asian economies
Hong Kong
Singapore
Japan
Sweden
Norway
Netherlands
Australia
Denmark
UK
Germany
US
1995
1.3
1.67
1.42
1.74
1.87
1.53
1.83
1.81
1.71
1.25
1.98
1996
1.17
1.66
1.43
1.61
1.89
1.53
1.8
1.75
1.73
1.32
1.98
1997
1.1
1.61
1.39
1.52
1.86
1.56
1.78
1.75
1.72
1.37
1.97
1998
0.99
1.47
1.38
1.5
1.81
1.63
1.76
1.72
1.72
1.36
2
1999
0.97
1.47
1.34
1.5
1.85
1.65
1.76
1.74
1.69
1.36
2.01
2000
1.02
1.6
1.36
1.55
1.85
1.72
1.76
1.77
1.64
1.38
2.06
2001
0.93
1.41
1.33
1.57
1.78
1.71
1.73
1.75
1.63
1.35
2.03
2002
0.96
1.37
1.32
1.65
1.75
1.73
1.75
1.73
1.64
1.34
2.01
Window closes earlier when the age truncating
for total dependency ratio changed
1.5
YR<15
TDR(0-14+60+/15-59)
AR 60+
1.0
0.5
0.0
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2010
Source: United Nations World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision
2020
2030
2040
2050
The challenges:
Quantity
vs
Quality
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How to revert the low fertility:
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Replacement Migration:
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Healthy Population:
Low fertility
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About 60% reduction is due to change of marital
distribution rather than the reduction of marital
fertility rate
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Promoting fertility: CS suggested to have three.
Due to the late marriage, they might not be able
to catch up (1st order of birth 24.8 in 1981 to 29.8
in 2003)
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Engage the newborns from Mainland born
mothers in Hong Kong. (Of course, solve the
critical staff problem first)
Replacement migration
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About more than 80% of the population growth
from migration.
The new comers rejuvenate and inject new blood
into the community.
They are not coming (38100 one-way permit
holders in 2004).
Impact on the labour force: postponement of the
retirement age.
Successful experience in Shanghai about 30% are
newly migrants
Population pyramid of Hong Kong 1976,
2003 and 2033
Replacement Migration:
slow down ageing
Healthy Population
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Life-long health promotion and practice
Healthy life style.
Prevention: to prevent unnecessary health
cost: for example, smoking and
attempted or completed suicides
To remove the obstacles for getting
married and bearing babies
Economic and Financial impact is a real
concern.
 A community consensus is needed.
 How much the community is willing to
pay for it? A higher tax?
Discussions
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Social Responsibility and Individual
choice?
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Someone has to pay for it. No free
lunch!
Time to Act Now
Analogy of a clock:
 Second arm (politics)
 Minute arm
(economic policy)
 Hour arm
(demography policy)
Thank you