Transcript Diapositive 1 - Caribbean Future Forum

Port of Spain, Trinidad, 5-7 May, 2015
Are Small Islands Developing States
more vulnerable than others?
Evidence from the Net VulnerabilityResilience Index
Valérie Angeon, University of the French West Indies
Samuel Bates, University Paris Dauphine
Aims and scope
• A Growing interest for SD
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1972: Meadows Report, The limits to growth
1992: Rio Earth Summit
1997: Kyoto Protocol
2000: Millennium development goals
2002: Johannesburg Earth Summit
2012: Rio+20 Earth Summit
2015: Post-2015 Development Agenda
• An implicit intuition that SD can diminish vulnerability and
augment resilience
▫ Intuition: There is no empirical demonstration of the link between SD
and VR
▫ Injunction: Countries much reach inclusive growth (World Bank,
2008)
▫ Questions: How to be sure that these objectives are reached?
How to measure VR with a SD approach?
=> We provide the NVRI
Content
1. SD: the turn of the 90's
2. SD and VR indices: the missing link
3. Assessing VR trough a SD approach: a
worldwide application of the NVRI
1. SD: The turn of the 90's
• 90’s: Rio Earth Summit, 1992
▫ Institutionalization of SD
• 90’s: Recognition of SIDS vulnerability
▫ Rio Summit, 1992 and its derived outputs
 Measuring vulnerability and promoting resilience
through SD
Milestones
Earth Summits
1992
2002
2012
• Rio
• Johannesburg
• Rio+20
International conferences
on SIDS
1994
2005
2014
• Barbados Programme
of Action
• Mauritius Strategy
• SAMOA
• UN International year
of SIDS
Rio, 1992
“Small island developing States, and islands
supporting small communities are a special case both
for environment and development. They are ecologically
fragile and vulnerable. Their small size, limited resources,
geographic dispersion and isolation from markets, place them at
a disadvantage economically and prevent economies of scale”.
Agenda 21, Chap. 17, section G, § 124.
Johannesburg, 2002
“Small island developing States are a special case both
for environment and development. Although they
continue to take the lead in the path towards sustainable
development in their countries, they are increasingly
constrained by the interplay of adverse factors clearly
underlined in Agenda 21, the Programme of Action for the
Sustainable Development of Small Island Developing States
and the decisions adopted at the twenty-second special session
of the General Assembly”. Report of the World Summit on
Sustainable Development, Chap. 7, § 58.
Rio+20, 2012
“We call for continued and enhanced efforts to assist small
island developing States in implementing the Barbados
Programme of Action and the Mauritius Strategy. We also call
for a strengthening of United Nations system support
to small island developing States in keeping with the
multiple ongoing and emerging challenges faced by
these States in achieving sustainable development”. The
future we want, II. B. 33
Barbados Programme of Action, 1994
“Small islands developing State (…) should continue to
work on the development of vulnerability indices and
other indicators that reflect the status of small islands developing
States and integrate ecological fragility and economic
vulnerability. Consideration should be given to how such an
index, as well as relevant studies undertaken on small island
developing States by other international institutions, might be
used in addition to other statistical measures as quantitative
indicators of fragility”. General assembly BPoA, Barbados
1994, paragraphs 113 and 114.
Mauritius Strategy, 2005
“Small island developing States are committed to
promoting sustainable development, eradicating poverty
and improving the livelihoods of their peoples by the
implementation of strategies which build resilience and
capacity to address their unique and particular
vulnerabilities”, Draft Mauritius Strategy for the further
implementation of the BPoA, § 5.
SAMOA, 2014
“We reaffirm that small island developing States remain a
special case for sustainable development in view of
their unique and particular vulnerabilities and that they
remain constrained in meeting their goals in all three
dimensions of sustainable development”. Report of the
third International Conference on SIDS, Chapter 1, § 5.
2. SD and VR indices: the missing link
• Under the impetus of the 90’s
▫ Prolific works: cf. the review of composite indices (Angeon and
Bates, 2015)
 12 representative indices
Briguglio, 1995; Wells, 1997; Atkins et al., 2000; UWI, 2002 Adrianto
and Matsuda, 2004; Briguglio and Galea, 2004; Kali et al., 2005; Easty
et al., 2006; Turvey, 2007; UN, 2008; Briguglio et al., 2009;
Guillaumont, 2009, 2010
• Criticisms
▫ These indexes particularly focus on growth descriptors to
characterize a country’s performance
 Most of these indexes claim to stress the economic dimension of VR
 These indexes do not simultaneously cover all of the dimensions of
sustainability
 Multiple variables and computation methods exist
 Does a minimum set of variables that consistently describes VR exist?
=> An explicit interpretation of VR in terms of sustainability with the
lowest number of variables should be stressed
Decomposition of composite indexes by dimensions
Angeon and Bates, 2015
Suggesting the NVRI – Selecting variables, graph of
dependant relations
Angeon and Bates, 2015
Suggesting the NVRI - The B2A algorithm
The NVRI is a standardized
arithmetic average of 33
variables in the range [-1, 1].
NVRIj = Vj – Rj
The NVRI is a multimetric
index that captures all of
the dimensions of SD.
The dimensions of the
NVRI do not have the same
status:
• Economic and
governance: control
dimensions
• Environment, social
and periphericity:
contingent dimensions
Angeon and Bates, 2015
Suggesting the NVRI – Four states of VR
Angeon and Bates, 2015
Suggesting the NVRI - Qualities and properties of the NVRI
Using both the scoreboard and the aggregated value of the NVRI
to profile countries performance
Relevance and
helpfulness
Measurability
Workability
Comprehensiveness Accuracy
Replicability
Simplicity
Methodological
soundness
Comparability
Ease of
interpretation
Computational
robustness
Flexibility
3. Assessing VR trough a SD approach: a
worldwide application of the NVRI
▫ The data:
 International organizations:
 World Bank (World Development Index and World
Governance Index), the UN,
 Université Catholique de Louvain, Belgium:
 the International Environmental Agreements Database and
the International Disaster Database (EM-DAT)
 National agencies
=> countries with less than 10% missing data are selected
▫ 95 countries
 MDC, ADC, LDC, SIDS
 7 SIDS: The Bahamas, Bahrain, the Dominican Republic,
Jamaica, the Maldives, Mauritius and Singapore
Are SIDS more vulnerable than others?
• Are SIDS more vulnerable than others?
Angeon and Bates, 2015
▫ Comparing the EVI and the NVRI / the philosophy of the EVI
The EVI is an arithmetic
average of eight indicators
in the range [0, 100].
The EVI does not cope
with all of the dimensions
of SD.
All of the variables that
compose the EVI have the
same status.
UN, 2013
Comparing the EVI and the NVRI / Empirical evidence
NVRI 2000-2009 EVI 2000-2009
Min
-0.2032
8.2791
Max
0.1308
63.0830
Median
-0.0752
31.6192
Q1
-0.1074
24.1894
Q3
0.0202
35.1230
Spearman correlation matrix
p-value <0,22
EVI 2000- NVRI 2000Variables
2009
209
EVI 20001
0,01779
2009
NVRI
20002009
0,01779
1
α = 0,05
H0: The variables are
independent
H1: The variables are
dependent
P-value > α => H0 is
accepted
▫ Focus on the Caribbean
Stable resilience
Unstable resilience
No Caribbean countries in our sample
The Bahamas
Singapore
Malta, Cyprus (formerly SIDS)
Contained vulnerability
Uncontrolled vulnerability
No Caribbean countries in our sample
Jamaica, Dominican Republic,
Venezuela (≠ SIDS)
Mauritius, Bahrain
Maldives
3. Assessing VR trough a SD approach: a
worldwide application of the NVRI
▫ Discussion
 Need to address SD concerns for a more holistic
assessment of VR in compliance with the
international organizations stance
 We suggest the NVRI to help to define convenient
policies
 an easy-to-use tool
 a scoreboard to pinpoint development trajectories, and
evaluate progress in achieving SD
=> For the Caribbean: lack of environmental data
Thank you for your attention
[email protected]
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