Transcript A Storm-Scale Analysis of the 16 June 2008 Significant

A Storm-Scale Analysis of the
16 June 2008 Significant Severe
Weather Event across New York
and Western New England
Thomas A. Wasula
NOAA/NWS at Albany
NROW X
November 5-6, 2008
Motivation
CSTAR III examines sensible weather with
warm season cutoff lows
Storm-scale environment important to
understand mesoscale substructure of
convection with cutoffs
New technology being utilized in shortfuse operations
Outline
Brief Synoptic and Mesoscale Overview
Radar Analysis
1.) GR2Analyst
2.) Four Dimensional Storm Cell
Investigator (FSI)
3.) Traditional Radar Graphics
Background
Numerous large hail reports with
significant agricultural damage to orchards
across upstate NY
Short wave trough and cold front ahead of
Cutoff focuses convection
Cold pool anomalies (steep lapse rates)
coupled with sufficient shear and instability
allowed multicellular and isolated
supercells to impact region
Moderate Risk: Albany Forecast Area
1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook
1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook
16 June 2008: 1200 UTC 500 hPa
Heights, Temps and Winds
www.spc.noaa.gov
16 June 2008: 1200 UTC 300 hPa Isotachs,
Streamlines, Divergence and Winds
www.spc.noaa.gov
1200 UTC KALB Sounding
SBCAPE = 644 J kg-1
DCAPE = 305 J kg-1
0-6 km Shear = 49 kts
WBZ HGT = 9.7 kft
700-500 hPa LR = 5.6°C km-1
1800 UTC LAPS
850-500 hPa Lapse rates
700-500 hPa lapse
rates were also
around 7°C km-1
0.5º GFS Lapse Rate Anomalies
16 June 2008/1800 UTC
Thanks to Matt Scalora for this slide
1800 UTC LAPS
SBCAPE and MSLP
Light blue shade to
green shade 10003000 J kg-1
0.5º GFS 16 June 2008/1800 UTC
Thanks to Matt Scalora for this slide
1800 UTC Albany Sounding
-20ºC height =20.2kft
1745 UTC Satellite and Lightning
Significant clearing and
destabilization occurred
across eastern NY
NWS at Albany Forecast Area
GR2Analyst
FSI – Future of Radar
Analysis (AWIPS)
Improved vertical cross-sections (Dynamic)
Constant Altitude Planned Position Indicator
(CAPPI) for cross-sections with 8-bit data plotted
at constant altitudes
3D Visualizations – 8-bit radar data from
elevation scans, vertical cross-sections and
CAPPI’s are plotted as 2D textures in a 3D
space
Virtual volume scans – No volume scan is
incomplete
FSI
PPI
Vertical Crosssection
CAPPI
3D Flier
16-2300 UTC 0.5° Base REF Loop
Thanks to ITO Vasil Koleci for assistance with loop !!!
1855 UTC FSI
50 dBZ up to 27 kft
KBGM vs. KENX VIL
VIL: 55-60 kg m-2
VIL: 45-50 kg m-2
1855 UTC Cross-Section
-20°C
WER
1855 UTC : Golf Ball Hail
(1.75”) in Colonie and
2” hail in Guilderland !!!
1900 UTC 0.5° Base REF
Height of 50 dBZ isosurface = 30 kft
1909 UTC: Hail reports kept
coming in (CESTM too) !!!
50 dBZ
to 30 kft
1946 UTC: FSI
65 dBZ
to 24 kft !
Wow !
2133 UTC 0.5º Base REF
2133 UTC 0.5° Base REF X-section
2133 UTC Echo Tops
2133 UTC 50 dBZ Isosurface
2142 UTC “Hail Monster”
-20°C
60 dBZ isosurface
up to 30 kft !!!
Golf Ball-size
hail reported
2142 UTC KENX 4-Panel
Derived Product
Gridded VIL
Layer REF
MAX 2
(24-33 kft)
Echo Tops
Layer REF MAX3
(33-60 kft)
2146 UTC KENX 4-Panel
Derived Product
Gridded VIL
Layer REF
MAX 2
(24-33 kft)
Echo Tops
Layer REF MAX3
(33-60 kft)
2146 UTC: Three Body
Scatterer/Hail Streak…
2146 UTC Base REF 4-panel
0.5°
1.3°
3.1°
2.4°
2146 UTC: FSI
50 dBZ well
above -20°C
2142 UTC KENX SRM
0.5°
0.9°
Tornado ???
1.3°
1.8°
2146 UTC KENX SRM
0.5°
1.3°
0.9°
1.8°
Results
General Severe Weather Synoptic and
Mesoscale Environments identified well
New technology such as FSI aided
forecasters with timely warnings
Hail ground truth reports were plentiful
18 SVR’s issued with 15 verified; 1 TOR
POD = 0.93 (40/43 events); FAR = 0.17;
CSI = 0.78; Lead Time = 25.5 minutes