Transcript Options and Issues: Expanding Developing Country Climate

Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2)
concentrations (1750 to present)
370
parts per million volume
360
350
340
Mauna Loa (1958-present)
330
Siple Station (1750-)
320
310
300
290
280
270
1750
1800
1850
1900
1950
2000
Data Source: C.D. Keeling and T.P. Whorf, Atmospheric CO2 Concentrations (ppmv) derived from in situ air samples collected at Mauna Loa
Observatory, Hawaii, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, August 1998. A. Neftel et al, Historical CO2 Record from the Siple Station Ice
Core, Physics Institute, University of Bern, Switzerland, September 1994. See http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/trends/co2/contents.htm
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Atmospheric methane (CH4) concentrations
1800
parts per billion volume
1700
1600
1500
Law Dome (1841-1978)
1400
Cape Meares (1979-1991)
1300
1200
1100
1000
900
800
1840
1890
1940
1990
Data Source: D.M. Etheridge et al. Concentrations of CH4 from the Law Dome (East Side, "DE08" Site) Ice Core(a), Commonwealth
Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Aspendale, Victoria, Australia. September 1994. Available:
http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/trends/methane/lawdome.259. M.A.K. Khalil, R.A. Rasmussen, and F. Moraes. "Atmospheric methane at Cape
Meares: Analysis of a high resolution data base and its environmental implications." Journal of Geophysical Research 98:14,753-14,770.
1993. Available: http://cdiac.esd.ornl.gov/ftp/db1007/cmeares.mon
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How much will the Kyoto Protocol reduce emissions?
Business-as-usual
Kyoto Protocol scenario
Billion tons of carbon
8
6
8.0
7.6
6.4
5.8
4
2
0
1990
1995
2000
2005
Data Sources: United States Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, International
Energy Outlook, 1998 and 1999.
2010
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Greenhouse gas emission scenarios
Annual Emissions (GtC)
14
12
Stabilization Targets
10
8
6
4
450 ppmv
550
650
750
2
0
1950
2000
2050
2100
2150
2200
2250
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Cumulative carbon emissions, 1950-1996
15,715
China
11,651
Germany
8,504
Japan
7,415
United Kingdom
India
4,235
Canada
4,054
South Africa
2,331
Mexico
2,118
Australia
2,080
Brazil
1,557
Korea, Rep.
1,361
966
Indonesia
50,795
United States
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Million tons of carbon
Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
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Per capita emissions of carbon from
industrial sources, 1996
4.63
Australia
2.91
Russian Federation
2.87
Germany
2.59
United Kingdom
2.54
Japan
2.46
Korea, Rep.
2.10
Ukraine
1.88
South Africa
1.02
Mexico
0.76
China
0.46
Brazil
Indonesia
0.33
India
0.29
5.37
United States
0
1
2
3
4
Thousand tons of carbon
Data Source: Marland et al, 1999. Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.
5
6
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