Transcript Final Polar PowerPoint

POLAR OPERATIONS
AND
SPACE WEATHER
MIKE STILLS
INTERNATIONAL OPERATIONS
FLIGHT DISPATCH
29APR08
APRIL 04, 2008 UNITED COMPLETED IT’S 8000th POLAR
OPERATION WHEN FLIGHT 851
FLEW FROM CHICAGO TO BEIJING ON POLAR 4
UAL POLAR ROUTES
WASHINGTON
82 N
CHICAGO
ABERI
DEVID
RAMEL
NIKIN
BEIJING
HONG KONG
SHANGHAI
TOKYO
ORVIT
1996 - STRONG WINTER WINDS PREVENT YEAR ROUND NON STOP
CHICAGO TO HONG KONG SERVICE VIA ESTABLISHED ROUTES
1997 - POLAR ROUTES IDENTIFIED AS VIABLE ALTERNATIVE
1998 – CATHAY PACIFIC OPERATED POLAR TEST FLIGHT
1999 – UNITED OPERATED POLAR DEMO FLIGHTS
HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE YEAR TO YEAR
1999 - 12 POLAR DEMO FLIGHTS
2000 - 253 POLAR FLIGHTS
2001 - 466 POLAR FLIGHTS
2002 - 471 POLAR FLIGHTS
2003 - 578 POLAR FLIGHTS
2004 - 1096 POLAR FLIGHTS
2005 - 1402 POLAR FLIGHTS
2006 - 1484 POLAR FLIGHTS
2007 - 1832 POLAR FLIGHTS
ECONOMIC COMPARISON OF NON-STOP OPTIONS
(MARCH 2006)
FLIGHT 829 ORD-HKG
POLAR 3
316 PSGRS AND 5000 lbs CARGO (14:32)
FLIGHT 829 ORD-HKG
RUSSIA
246 PSGRS AND NO CARGO (15:41)
FLIGHT 829 ORD-HKG
NOPAC
NO PSGRS OR CARGO (17:18)
POLAR OPERATIONAL CONCERNS
(DEFINED AS NORTH OF 78N LATITUDE)
POTENTIAL HAZARDS
1) SOLAR ACTIVITY
2) COLD TEMPERATURES
3) DIVERSION SUPPORT
4) COMMUNICATION RESTRAINTS
FAA REQUIREMENTS
POLAR TRAINING
SATCOM (OR HF DATA LINK)
AED (DEFIBRILLATORS)
RECOVERY PLAN IN THE EVENT OF DIVERSION
2 COLD WEATHER ANTI-EXPOSURE SUITS
ABILITY TO OPERATE IN AREAS OF MAGNETIC UNRELIABILITY
FUEL FREEZE ANALYSIS PROGRAM
PLAN FOR SOLAR ACTIVITY
POTENTIAL ISSUES
HUMAN SAFETY FACTOR - LOWER, LESS EFFICIENT ALTITUDES TO
LIMIT POSSIBLE EXPOSURE TO RADIATION
COMMUNICATION FACTOR - FAA MANDATES RELIABLE
COMMUNICATION OVER THE ENTIRE ROUTE OF FLIGHT
( SATCOM LOST AT 82 N/ RELIANCE ON HF )
NAVIGATION FACTOR - UAL AIRCRAFT EQUIPPED WITH GPS AND
INERTIAL REFERENCE UNITS
DURING ADVERSE SOLAR ACTIVITY, UAL POLICY RESTRICTS
FLIGHTS TO SPECIFIC ROUTES AND ALTITUDES.
UAL POLICY IN PART, IS DERIVED FROM AND BASED ON THE
NOAA SPACE WEATHER SCALES
POLAR WEATHER PACKAGE CONTAINS SOLAR ACTIVITY AND
SWPC RECOMMENDATIONS
ON SITE METEOROLOGISTS MONITOR SWPC WEBSITES AND
MAINTAIN CONTACT WITH THE SWPC
SWPC ENSURES UAL HAS TIMELY INFORMATION
SOLAR EVENTS AND RESPONSE
JANUARY 2005
26 FLIGHTS OPERATED ON LESS THAN OPTIMUM POLAR ROUTES DUE TO
SOLAR ACTIVITY
CHICAGO TO HONG KONG ANCHORAGE STOP 4 CONSECUTIVE DAYS,
PENALTY 180 TO 210 MINUTES
CHICAGO TO BEIJING PENALTIES 18 TO 55 MINUTES
BEIJING TO CHICAGO PENALTIES 55 MINUTES TO 80 MINUTES
SOLAR EVENTS AND RESPONSE
SEPTEMBER EVENT 2005
CHICAGO TO HONG KONG - ANCHORAGE STOP, SCHEDULE PENALTY 180
MINUTES
DECEMBER EVENT 2006
CHICAGO TO HONG KONG - ANCHORAGE STOP 2 CONSECUTIVE DAYS
5 OTHER FLIGHTS BOUND FOR ASIA FLEW LESS THAN OPTIMUM ROUTES
AND/OR ALTITUDES
POLAR MOVEMENTS
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3731 REPORTED MOVEMENTS IN 2005
5308 REPORTED MOVEMENTS IN 2006
7291 REPORTED MOVEMENTS IN 2007
GRL 15APRIL 2008
•UAL835
•AAL289
•AAL167
•DAL91
•DAL19
•UAL897
•ACA001
•ACA015
•ACA087
•AAL153
•KAL038
•NWA25
•KAL036
•NWA11
•NWA71
•CCA982
•UAL803
•NWA69
1600 2201 KORD ZSPD 1601 2202 340 ORVIT
1557 2205 KORD ZSPD 1604 2212 340 ORVIT
1616 2311 KJFK RJAA 1616 2311 340 ORVIT
1553 2316 KATL RKSI 1558 2321 340 ORVIT
1428 2152 KATL ZSPD 1428 2152 340 ORVIT
1646 2325 KIAD ZBAA 1652 2331340 ORVIT
1736 2341 CYYZ RJAA 1736 2341 340 ORVIT
1400 2006 CYYZ VHHH 1400 2006 340 ORVIT
1746 2351 CYYZ ZSPD 1746 2351 340 ORVIT
1811 0021 KORD RJAA 1811 0021 340 ORVIT
1815 0024 KORD RKSI 1822 0031 340 ORVIT
1839 0047 KDTW RJAA 1839 0047 340 ORVIT
1735 0053 KATL RKSI 1739 0057 340 ORVIT
1954 0202 KDTW RJAA 1954 0202 340 ORVIT
2019 0226 KDTW RJGG 2019 0226 340 ORVIT
2040 0310 KJFK ZBAA 2040 0310 340 ORVIT
1705 2359 KIAD RJAA 1705 2359 380 ORVIT
2001 0209 KDTW RJBB 2001 020 380 ORVIT
A DECADE AGO THERE WAS NO NEED OR REQUIREMENT TO
TAKE SPACE WEATHER INTO OPERATIONAL
CONSIDERATION.
TODAY, UNITED CLOSELY MONITORS SPACE WEATHER AND
IS CONSTANTLY ENHANCING PROCEDURES TO MEET
CRITERIA THAT RECENT RESEARCH AND DATA MANDATE.
WHAT WILL THE NEXT DECADE BRING?
PROCEDURAL CONSIDERATIONS
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GOES MONITORING
D REGION ABSORPTION
POLAR CAP ABSORPTION
AURORAL ABSORPTION
PARTICLE ENERGY
LEVELS
• X RAY FLUX
• K INDEX
• PROTON FLUX
QUESTIONS?
THANK YOU!