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4. Consider, identify and describe any negative indirect impacts of the visions you develop? The Distopian Vision! • Economic incentive to have privatized autonomous vehicles vs. public autonomous systems (We can sell more vehicles, former automakers and mobility specialists say!!!) • Increasing mobility and access increases Sprawl. Sprawl will Grow! Suburbanization is supported and more land can be engaged to support regional economy SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014 4. Consider, identify and describe any negative indirect impacts of the visions you develop? The Distopian Vision! • Urban Areas will be consumed by traffic as roadway throughput at destinations will be overwhelmed by vehicle loads. SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014 4. Consider, identify and describe any negative indirect impacts of the visions you develop? The Distopian Vision! • People do not want to share disgusting vehicles! (cleaning will be a public policy problem with shared vehicles) SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014 4. Consider, identify and describe any negative indirect impacts of the visions you develop? The Distopian Vision! • Door-to-door Automated travel will destroy non-destination incidental enroute retail. Our downtowns will die! SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014 4. Consider, identify and describe any negative indirect impacts of the visions you develop? The Distopian Vision! • All our city centers will be fenced to keep pedestrians from interfering with flow of automated vehicles SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014 4. Consider, identify and describe any negative indirect impacts of the visions you develop? The Distopian Vision! • People will live-in motorhome vehicles and cruise downtown cores to avoid urban housing costs • Poverty commutes are better because people can sleep en-route SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014 4. Consider, identify and describe any negative indirect impacts of the visions you develop? The Distopian Vision! • We do a whole bunch of new activities in our autonomous vehicles - Work - Sleep - Board Games - Technology Entertainment - Conceive Babies - Windows are not necessary – so Drug Use and Manufacture proliferates SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014 3. Evaluate alternative visions against the following criteria: Accessibility, equity, health capital costs, operation and maintenance costs, and GHG and criteria emissions? • Poorer Health Outcomes (people do not have to walk as much with point to point delivery systems) SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014 3. Evaluate alternative visions against the following criteria: Accessibility, equity, health capital costs, operation and maintenance costs, and GHG and criteria emissions? • Economic Jobs Lost: - Bus Drivers - Taxi Drivers - Truck Drivers - Ambulence Drivers - Body Repair • Capacity volume increase on Freeways, clogging urban core destinations • Incidence traffic will be reduced SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014 2. What policies, programs and infrastructure are necessary to avoid these visions? POTENTIAL GOVERNMENT RESPONSES: • Specify infrastructure to shared autonomous vehicle use. SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014 2. What policies, programs and infrastructure are necessary to avoid these visions? POTENTIAL GOVERNMENT RESPONSES: • Charge VMT • In urban areas install dynamic pricing “EZPass” monitoring on a block by block tolling basis to limit cruising congestion. • To avoid fencing our downtowns, force hard speed limits to create shared spaces of 5mph. Conversely, allow 145mph for automated vehicles on dedicated freeway infrastructure SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014 2. What policies, programs and infrastructure are necessary to avoid these visions? POTENTIAL GOVERNMENT RESPONSES: • In Urban Areas, convert Urban Roadway Capacity (Broadway) • Contract capacity for single occupancy vehicles SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014 2. What policies, programs and infrastructure are necessary to avoid these visions? POTENTIAL GOVERNMENT RESPONSES: • Requirements to reserve slots in traffic flow, like now done at highcapacity airports • Contract capacity for single occupancy vehicles • Require Dedicated Lanes for HOV and limit Single Occupancy Vehicles (encouraging slugging and “casual carpooling”) • Require Cleaner Vehicles to mitigate additional VMT SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014 1. What can be done between to curb the growth in vehicle travel and congestion? Most Benefits come from Shared, (Public) Solutions SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014 SCENARIO 6: AVOIDING POOR PERFORMANCE – Automated Vehicles Symposium 2014