MITJA KOŠTOMAJ Thames Valley University, Faculty of the Arts Interactive game play – week 04 lecture 06

Future of Computer Games & Digital Entertainment

Today’s topics:

Future of computer games

This lecture discusses the future of computerised entertainment in following dimensions: 1. Historical view on the future of computer games, 2. Technological advancement; 3. Demographic and market changes; 4. Aesthetic development of the medium. 5. Social, health, law and other futures of CG

Historical view on the future

Computer games and technology in particular is a theme where people are very opinionated about the future.

1970s vision of paperless office, but paper consumption is up 30% 2005 – Eye toy, dancing mats - Computer market is growing http://sify.com/finance/fullstory.php?id=13970346 2003 – MMPORGs cooperation is the future of computer games http://www.usabilityviews.com/uv009176.html

COMPUTE! ISSUE 90 / NOVEMBER 1987 / PAGE 14 http://www.atarimagazines.com/compute/issue90/Future_Of_Computer_Games.php

Richard A. Bartle 21st January 1999 http://www.mud.co.uk/richard/tfog.htm

Technological advancement*

Technology is the most visible symbol of industry progress More speed, RAM, and power (of course).

More details, faster frame rate, smarter creatures… The PS3 will be “ 1000 ” times as fast as the PS2 -- - • but what does this really mean? Nobody knows. • Broadband and mobile infrastructure.

Hard disks as standard in consoles (near-term).

• Permits much more customisation by the player. Permits patches, updates, episodic content. Source: The Future of Computer Entertainment, 2005-2050 Ernest W. Adams, www.designersnotebook.com

Technological advancement Continued growth in specialized peripherals.

– Dance mats, Eye-toy, etc. >> – additional mechanisms of interaction – beyond the handheld mechanisms of interaction

Additional specialized processing accelerators

– Real-time raytracing – Animation, inverse kinematics, or locomotion – Neural nets or other AI accelerators

Source: The Future of Computer Entertainment, 2005-2050 Ernest W. Adams, www.designersnotebook.com

PC vs. console

With every new console generation, someone declares that the PC is dead for gaming.

There are many reasons they are wrong: – PCs can be expensive, consoles must be cheap.

– PCs and consoles optimised for different situations PCs, one person at 0.5 m; consoles, several people at 2 m. – PCs are open systems requiring no license. No content limitations imposed by publicity - conscious publishers.

– People need to own PCs for other reasons, so developers will still make games for them.

– PC technology advancement is continuous, not stepwise. The latest PC is always ahead of the latest console. - PC was first networked game platform MUDs have been invented on PC.

What About VR/AR?

CG industry was interested 4-5 years ago, but: – Prices too high, quality too low – Depth perception not needed in many games – Console gameplay is often a group activity It will come >> when: – Quality of the experience is high enough - Frame rate, resolution, 3D audio – motion sickness problem is solved.

– HMDs >> cheap, lightweight, and durable AR only meaningful in mixed-reality environments. – Compared with traditional fictitious game worlds, there won’t be much demand for mixed-reality games.

Immediate Technological Challenges Animation

Graphics look great – until they move! – – – – People move like marionettes. Masses not properly modelled. Interactions with the environment not properly modelled.

Interactions with other people not properly modelled. Inverse kinematics Produces correct interactions with the environment True locomotion Properly models the behaviour of bodies More research on the interactions of non-rigid bodies.

Immediate Technological Challenges

Artificial Intelligence

Areas for research: Intelligent opponents Intelligent team-mates Voice recognition – Must accept all sorts of people, without any training. Computer-generated speech – Must not only handle inflections but also create a sense of the character and personality of the speaker.

– Recorded snippets can only go so far. Natural language comprehension Natural language generation AI has proven incredibly resistant to hardware improvements.

Demographic and market changes

Demographic and market changes

GLOBAL VIDEO GAMES MARKET IS BIG AND GROWING

Global video games software sales After a transition period in 2000 & 2001, the global video games market has continued its strong growth in 2002 (about 20%).

The industry is the largest and fastest growing segment of the entertainment industry.

It is now a USD 15 Bn market, larger than movie worldwide box office.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002

Demographic and market changes

THIS SUCCESS IS PARTLY DUE TO DEMOGRAPHICS AND WIDENING OF THE PLAYER BASE ...

1980 : 1st generation

Players are 12 to 18 years old

1990 : 2nd generation

Players are 9 to 25 years old

2000 : 3rd generation

Players are 5 to ..

30mm 150mm – – – –

new types of gamers are attracted by compelling games gamers keep playing as they get older games are increasingly socially accepted games are increasingly popular as a new form of entertainment

320mm

Shifting demographics

Aging player base –The average age is 29 and rising.

– Older players demand richer experiences. Fracturing of the youth market –Not just “kids” and “adults” any more. –Each age-year has its own interests (girls) Arrival of women… in force!

– Now more women players than teenaged boys!!

– Women want different kinds of challenges.

Geo - Demographics

East Europe – Too many countries, too little demand (for now) India and China are the ones to watch. - Large centralized governments can implement friendly policies. (ie piracy) (Working with many small countries is a pain.) Bigger populations buy more stuff!

Islamic world, Southeast Asia, Africa – Next in line but >>> Games are a luxury. – – Cultural differences with the west but Islamic world is mostly unilingual.

Geo - Demographics

Other Cultures People want their native forms of entertainment; – Bollywood, Japanese comic books, etc. – Local cultures and markets want games about themselves.

Prices: Can’t sell Western hardware at Western prices. – An inexpensive machine like the Mega Drive, designed explicitly for the Indian market, could do incredibly well. Programming outsourcing will accelerate >> India, China … – Already western programming jobs are going to eastern Europe and India.

Shift from offline to online world

Changes to transmission methods >> download the game.

• • Broadband, networked environment brings New players to the game New type of games New value chain are being established.

New value chain

•

Offline games

•

Online games

OFFLINE CONSOLE GAMES Market Overview

Who plays offline console games?

• • • • A vast majority of players are

male

(about 65%), They are aged between

15 and 34 years old

(40% players are 15 to 24 years old, 25% are 25 to 34 years old), They play between

one and three hours per week,

They buy games which were

recommended

friends.

to them by

Which preferred genre do offline gamers play?

•

Action, Sport & Race

are the prefered types of games (Sports 21%, Race 20%, Adventure/Role Playing 18%, Action/Combat 12%, Platform 12%).

THE OFFLINE VALUE CHAIN

Developer Publishers Distributors Key business requirement  Development/Production  Technology  Creativity/game play  Management Gross margin Scope  55-75%  Worldwide  Product acquisition  Games library  Manufacturing  Marketing  44-55%  Worldwide  Promotion  Logistics  Support  15-20%  Local

New value chain

•

Offline games

•

Online games

THE INTERACTIVE ENTERTAINMENT INDUSTRY HAS REACHED A TURNING POINT

Online demand is irreversible for existing players Online playing will attract a significant number of new players Online playing will be a huge market within the internet usage Online gaming creates the dynamic around a new revenue channel Online offers a huge opportunity to the market because it reaches a huge base of new users.

THE ONLINE POPULATION IS GROWING RAPIDLY CREATING THE OPPORTUNITY TO ATTRACT A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF USERS TO ONLINE GAMING.

Online population in the US

(million users)

Online population in Europe

(million users) 207,7 218,7 104,0 123,8 160,1 60,8 87,4 132,0 1998 2000 2002 2005E Source: Computer Industry Alliance and Savantek Institute 1999 2000 2002 2005E

ONLINE GAMES VALUE CHAIN

Partners or clients

Video Game Publisher Portal ISP/Games Portals Website

Product

1-CD Rom+free internet access 2-CDRom+subscription 1-Exclusive Game subscription

Cost to end user Revenue model

CD+ subscription (10 to 15 € /month) Advance+Royalties on CD and/or Subscription Subscription 2 “One among many” game 3-games on portals MPEG, trailers Subscription Free or fee 1-Advance+Royalties on subscription 2-Royalties % of subscription Techno and commercial kick-back Free or fee

ONLINE GAMES demographics

Time

CD-ROM Users Casual Gamers Hard-core Gamers Games Web Users

Offline Online

Mobile entertainment

- *Handheld game devices – Gameboy Advance SP, Gameboy Micro, Nintendo DS, Gizmondo , N-Gage, – Sony PSP – PDAs – Mobile phones – Tablet PCs - I-PODs (video players) * http://www.thumbbandits.com/Editorial19.asp

Mobile entertainment

Screens – A PDA needs a large minimum screen size.

– Phones only recently got screens.

Inputs – You must be able to hold a phone to your ear. – You must be able to write on a PDA. – A game device must have joysticks & buttons. Conclusion: nothing does all of these well at once. – Phones >> ear – PDAs >> eye – Game devices >> thumbs (Who takes stills on Camcorder???)

Mobile entertainment-demographics

Japanese yes, Americans no. – The Japanese commute to work on the train, Americans drive cars. Would women play on mobile phones? – Probably not; if the cost is the same as to talk, they would rather talk.

In the West: – PDAs are an adults only device – Game handhelds are a children only device – Phones are an EVERYBODY device. >>> phones have the broadest range (price, reach …)

Mobile entertainment - when

Adults: during brief breaks, or while commuting.

– short, simple games. Children: whenever they have free time.

– Children can be bigger than adult ones!

Games that depend on location or travel? – Useful in theme parks, Laser Tag, etc.

– Not ever going to be a major segment. Compare # of video gamers to # of paintball players.

Aesthetic development of CG In past the quest was for Graphical quality.

CG (technology) developed certain visual style, which was somehow detached from zeitgeist visual styles in other visual based industries (Fashion, Graphic design, Video)

Aesthetic development of CG

Visual design innovations photo realism is not enough? Look into fine art history… New ways of seeing and new ways of playing Content To attract new audiences >> interactive romantic comedy, soap opera New forms of digital entertainment Does every one wants to compete? Does everyone wants to MMRPGs?…

Aesthetic development of CG

How to recognise games as art or filed on its own.

Awards (Oscars, MTV awards, Nobel price…) Vocabulary for discussing art work Serious criticism Cult of personality (someone people will admire)

Other futures

What are going to be main social, health and other implications of computer games in the future and what pressure will be pressed upon games developers to deal with issues such as: Law >>> Piracy is the big problem. Social issues of digital divide.

Health issues – what happens if someone plays computer games for 20 hpw Violence and CG

IPR >>> Future

Piracy is the #1 problem.

4 steps: –Governments must acknowledge and support the idea of intellectual property rights. – Governments must formalise this in legislation.

– Governments must enforce, with sufficient resources, their anti piracy laws.

– The population must be taught that piracy is wrong.

Health >>> Future

Cocacolisation and nintendiation prof. Paul Zimmet from International Diabetes Institute .

Mitchell & Savill-Smith (2004) found various materials on the impact of frequent gaming on young people ’ s health. Players have complained of eyestrain, headaches, chest pain, fatigue, mood swings, sleep deprivation, black rings under the eyes and muscle stiffness in the shoulder. Medical experts appear concerned about metabolic and heart rates, that frequent gaming may be associated with health problems such as tendonitis and repetitive strain injury.

PISA study by OECD points out that children spend too much time in front of PCs and TVs and that modern children have problems with basic body movements such as moving backwards and/or standing on one leg; half of the children between age 8 and 18 are not capable to stand on one leg for more than 30 seconds and/or running backwards, almost 40% of children are overweight, and more than one third of 7 years old are too supple to stop on command while running (PISA 2003).

Violence – are games violent?

We know that, but do CGs cause that players become violent?!?

There are 106 articles in this is London for search violent games Violent games 'de-sensitise' http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/entertainment/articles/2798012?source=Evening%20Standard 'The most violent‘ http://www.thisislondon.co.uk/londoncuts/articles/18830947?source=Evening%20Standard