Transcript Document

Ghost of bleaching future:
Seasonal Outlooks from
NOAA's Operational Climate
Forecast System
C. Mark Eakin1, Gang Liu1,
Mingyue Chen2, and Arun Kumar2
1
[email protected]
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
2
Acknowledgements
Collaboration between
- NOAA Coral Reef Watch in Silver Spring, Maryland
- NOAA National Centers for Environmental Prediction
in Camp Springs, Maryland
Funding from
- NOAA Coral Reef Conservation Program
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
1998 Global Bleaching
Over 15% of the world’s reefs died after bleaching
during 1997-1999 El Niño and La Niña
CRW alerted the community
in near-real-time
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
2010 Southeast Asia
June Photo: Mark Eakin
July Photo: Naneng Setiasih
June Photo: Takuma Fujii
CRW alerted the community in
near-real-time and 3-months in advance
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
LIM-Based Bleaching Outlook
Bleaching Alert Area
2010
Apr-Jul
Statistical,
deterministic
model
Single model
output
Bleaching Outlook
2010
Apr-Jul
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
CFS-based Seasonal Bleaching Outlook (Apr-Jul 2010)
-Probabilistic
outlook
-28 weekly
ensemble
runs
90% probability
60% probability
Probabilistic outlook for each stress level:
Alert Level 2
Warning
Alert Level 1
Watch
Outline
• Applying satellite algorithm
to forecasts
• SST forecast model
• SST forecast skill
•Building the bleaching outlook
• Testing the bleaching outlook
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
CRW Satellite-Based Products
Primary Products: SST-based
50km Nighttime-only SST
Coral –
specific
SST Anomaly
HotSpot
Degree Heating Week
Bleaching Alert Areas
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
CRW Operational Bleaching HotSpots and
Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) Nowcasting
SST
Bleaching threshold (MMMSST+1ºC)
Maximum Monthly Mean SST
Climatology (MMMSST)
Week-0
a
b
Time
c d
Week-12
HotSpots
12 weeks
 ( HotSpot value  duration )
 1°C
Degree Heating Weeks
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 4 DHWs 
 8 DHWs 
coral bleaching is expected
mass bleaching and mortality are expected
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Proposed Bleaching HotSpots and
Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) Forecasting
SST
Week-0
Time
Week-12
HotSpot from Forecasts
12 weeks
 ( HotSpot value  duration )
 1°C
Degree Heating Weeks
10
 4 DHWs 
 8 DHWs 
coral bleaching is expected
mass bleaching and mortality are expected
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
NOAA CRW Coral Bleaching Outlook System
SST Forecast
Bleaching Thermal Stress Forecast
- Weekly HotSpot forecasts
- Weekly Degree Heating Week forecast
Coral Bleaching Outlook
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
NOAA CRW Coral Bleaching Outlook System
LIM SST forecast model
• NOAA-ESRL Linear Inverse
Model, 2x2° resolution
• Uses Principal
Components/EOF Analysis
• The leading 30 EOFs are
retained for prediction,
explaining average 75% of
the total variance in the
SST time series data
• Weekly Reynolds and Smith
Optimum Interpolation SST
(OISST) data used for
training and are used as
model input
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
NOAA CRW Coral Bleaching Outlook System
LIM SST forecast model
CFS SST forecast model
• NOAA-ESRL Linear Inverse
Model, 2x2° resolution
• NOAA-NCEP Climate
Forecast System Model,
1x1° resolution
• Uses Principal
Components/EOF Analysis
• Ensemble of 28 runs each
week
• The leading 30 EOFs are
retained for prediction,
explaining average 75% of
the total variance in the
SST time series data
• Thermal stress for each
pixel arranged warmest to
coolest, redistributed into
28 ensembles to determine
probabilities
• Weekly Reynolds and Smith
Optimum Interpolation SST
(OISST) data used for
training and are used as
model input
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• Data assimilation based on
Weekly Reynolds and Smith
Optimum Interpolation SST
(OISST) data are used as
initial SST conditions
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Skill Analysis for CFSv1 SST Prediction
Values significant at 95% level are shown, all months initial conditions.
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Skill Analysis for CFSv1 SST Prediction
Values significant at 95% level are shown, June initial conditions.
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Skill Analysis for CFSv1 SST Prediction
Values significant at 95% level are shown, November initial conditions.
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
From SST to Bleaching Thermal Stress Forecast
Prediction for July 17-23, 2008 (4-week lead-time)
SST Prediction
Bleaching HotSpot Prediction
DHW = 12-week accumulation of HotSpots (  threshold)
Bleaching Degree Heating Weeks
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
From Bleaching Thermal Stress to Outlook
Prediction for July 17-23, 2008 (4-week lead-time)
HotSpot forecast
DHW forecast
Bleaching Outlook
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
NOAA CRW Seasonal Bleaching Outlook
Weekly Bleaching Outlooks (xx% probability)
1-week leadtime
2-week leadtime
3-week leadtime
...
N-week leadtime
(currently up to 18 weeks)
Seasonal Bleaching Outlook (xx%
probability)
60% probability
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
CFS-Based Thermal Stress Outlook:
Jul-Oct 2012
60% Probabilities by week
Probabilistic global tropical ocean prediction
-
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Covering 45ºS to 45ºN (all coral reef areas)
1x1 degree spatial resolution
Weekly temporal resolution
3-18 week lead times
Updates weekly
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
CFS-Based Thermal Stress Outlook: Jul-Oct 2012
- Low probability of
mass bleaching in
most reef regions
90% probability
- Highest risk (NW
Hawaiian Islands)
in area with
relatively low skill
60% probability
Probabilistic outlook for each stress level:
Alert Level 2 (DHW
Warning
≥ 8)
Alert Level 1 (DHW
Watch
≥ 4)
Summary
• New system provides global coverage
with probabilistic outlook
• SST prediction skill highest in central
and eastern Pacific Ocean and Caribbean
• Performs well in the Caribbean and
Great Barrier Reef
• Provides general patterns of potential
bleaching
- enables managers and scientists to prepare
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Next Steps:
• Transition from CFSv1 to CFSv2 by
end of 2012
• CFSv2 adds an increased spatial resolution
and number of ensembles in first 45 days
• Complete evaluation and analysis of skill
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http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
Thank
you
Ghost of bleaching future: Seasonal Outlooks from
NOAA's Operational Climate Forecast System
C. M. Eakin1, G. Liu1, M. Chen2, and A. Kumar2
1
[email protected]
http://coralreefwatch.noaa.gov
2