Transcript Political Research and Statistics

Data Collection
11/27/2012
Readings
• Chapter 8 Correlation and Linear Regression (Pollock)
(pp 199- 206)
• Chapter 6 Foundations of Statistical Inference
(Pollock) (pp 122-135)
Homework
• Homework Due 11/29
• Chapter 8
– Question 1: A, B,C,D
– Question 2: A, B, C, D, E
– Question 3: A, B, C
– Question 4: A, B, C, D
– Question 5: A, B, C, D, E, G
OPPORTUNITIES TO DISCUSS
COURSE CONTENT
Office Hours For the Week
• When
• Wednesday 11-1
• Thursday 8-12
• And by appointment
Course Learning Objectives
• Students will learn the basics of polling and be
able to analyze and explain polling and survey
data
• Fourth, students will learn the basics of
research design and be able to critically
analyze the advantages and disadvantages of
different types of design.
OBSERVATION
Observation
• What is it
• Types of Observation
Problems of Observation
• Reactivity
• Ethics
Which Method to use?
THE LITERATURE REVIEW
What it Should Contain
• Bring the reader up to
speed on the status of the
research (what has been
done)
• Establish face validity
(why I am using these
variables)
• Point out potential
problems with previous
research
What it should Contain
• what are the main texts
in this area
• what are the general
theories in this area
• how has the question
been measured in the
past
Interviewing and Sampling
QUESTIONNAIRE CONSTRUCTION
Question Style
• Open Ended (advantages & disadvantages)
• Closed Ended (advantages & disadvantages)
Demographic Questions
• Who are you?
• These tend to be
overrated
• Don’t get too personal!
Behavior Questions
• What do you do, and
how often?
• Knowing behavior is a
good dependent and
independent variable
Opinion and Attitude Questions
• What do you think?
• Easy to Answer
Knowledge/Factual Questions
• Use sparingly
Question Order is Key
• Intro and Filter
• First Questions
• Major Questions
• Final Questions- demographics
How you should Phrase Questions
• Language (be clear)
–
• One question 1 concept
Information Level
BIAS
Interviewer Bias
• You can’t use inflections
• You can’t give hints-
• “Amber, do you think the Bill of Rights is a good thing
or a bad thing?” – Krusty the Klown
“Um . . .” – Amber Dempsey
“Take your time, dear.” – Krusty the Klown
“Good thing!” – Amber Dempsey
Respondent Bias
• Socially Acceptable Questions
• Always Remember Homer Simpson's Code of
the Schoolyard
– Don't tattle
– Always make fun of those different from you.
– Never say anything, unless you're sure everyone
feels exactly the same way you do.
Question Bias
• Leading Questions
• Honey Boo Boo Redux
• Confusing Questions
– Does it seem possible or
does it seem impossible to
you that the Nazi
extermination of the Jews
never happened?
A bad question
• 1. What do you think is the most important
issue currently facing St. Edward’s University?
a. Grounds keeping
b. Landscaping
c. Heating
d. Athletic Field Maintenance
Another One
If you had to make up the SEU Budget, and
could only keep one of the following activities
which of the items would you keep?
a. Faculty Travel Budget
b. Expanded Library Hours
c. Reduced parking rates for faculty
d. Discounted tickets for Topper Club members
Info Level problem
With the problems of “mad cow” disease and
potential problems with the existing BGH
growth hormone, do you agree that Texas
Taxpayers should stop funding tests using the
experimental BVT growth hormone on Texas
Livestock
a. Agree
b. Disagree.
c. Don't Know
Ensuring Reliability and Validity
• Pre-Test
• Pilot Test
Sampling
After we write the survey, we have to
select people!
The Source of Public Opinion
SAMPLING
What is a population
• The opinions of everyone in your group
• The Census includes 225 Million Adults
• Cost 11.8 billion dollars
• Takes years to compile
What is Sampling?
• Sampling is the
technique of
selecting a
representative part
of a population to
estimate the total
population
The Sample
• A sample is considerably smaller than the
total population.
• Samples that are said to mirror the population
are said to be representative.
These Numbers Have to be drawn
properly… or it is not representative
The Concept of Sampling
• Blood Tests
• Food Tests
Collecting a sample
• Population
• Sampling Frame
• The Sample itself
The Practicality of Sampling
• Time
• Money
• Size
The Laws of Sampling
• The Law of Large Numbers
• if cost is not a major consideration it is better to
collect data for ones target population than for a
sample thereof
• if cost dictates that a sample be drawn, a
probability sample is usually preferable to a
nonprobability sample.
• all probability samples yield estimates of the
target population.
• The accuracy of estimates is expressed in terms
of the margin or error and the confidence level.