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PETFORM TR Gas Workshop European Federation of Energy Traders The significance of spot and Intraday market design Gunnar Steck EFET Europe Ankara, March 24th 2014 1 They say: No forward market - not a healthy market Asian price benchmarks vs. TTF vs. US Henry Hub (monthly averages EUR/MWh) Japanese Crude Cocktail (JCC) Japan Korea Marker (JKM) TTF Henry Hub 2 But should add: no within-day – no market at all Fair Price Liquidity Risk Management 3 Balancing Regimes do matter! 4 BAL NC: Focus on end of day, activity within-day end-of-day cash out at system marginal prices (i.e. marginal price of any TSO buy/sell action throughout the day, system average price in case TSO has not intervened); linkage between network users means to balance and eventual obligations to do so within-day: EASEE gas renomination standards : max 2 hours lead time at IPs + max 30 min lead time for trade notifications at the VTP; standards for info provision: at least twice per day information about portfolio status; Merit order list for TSO balancing products, prioritising within-day and day-ahead title transfer products 5 Shippers have the responsibility to balance their own portfolios – and the means to do so! 140 120 100 offtake 80 input @ perfect e.o.d. forecast input + w.i.d activity 60 40 20 Step ‚basic‘ 0 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 1 2 3 4 5 6 Step ‚de luxe‘ 7 success factors: INFORMATION on the system Time Demand Forecast Line Pack (Day Start) PCLP SMP Buy SMP Sell 00:06 245.9 336.7 359. 5 68.8746 67.1514 01:05 245.9 338.1 358. 6 68.8746 67.1514 02:08 245.9 337.8 356. 3 68.8746 67.1514 03:15 242.3 337.7 359. 7 68.8746 67.1514 06:08 243.2 337.6 355. 4 68.8746 67.1514 07:08 243.5 337.6 355. 4 68.8746 67.1514 08:02 246 337.6 352. 9 68.7339 67.0107 09:05 254.3 337.6 345. 5 68.7134 66.9902 10:03 264.8 337.6 333. 4 68.8863 67.1631 11:04 263.4 337.6 331. 4 68.1859 67.3419 12:02 263.4 337.6 331. 4 0 0 8 success factors: INFORMATION on portfolio 9 success factors: market access 10 European Federation of Energy Traders Amstelveenseweg 998 1081 JS Amsterdam Tel: +31 (0)20 5207970 Email: [email protected] www.efet.org 11