Transcript PowerPoint Sunusu

FOREIGN TRADE OUTLOOK
* TURKEY AT A GLANCE
* TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE WORLD
* FOREIGN TRADE DEVELOPMENTS OF TURKEY
* TRADE WITH FINLAND
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
TURKEY AT A GLANCE;
STORY OF A FAST DEVELOPING DEMOCRATIC
COUNTRY...
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
2
1. SUCCESSFUL ECONOMY
* Booming economy (USD 230 billion to USD 618 billion GDP from
2002 to 2009)
* Promising economy with a bright future as it is expected to be the
fastest growing economy among the OECD members during 20112017 with an annual average real GDP growth rate of 6.7 percent
* 16th largest economy in the world and 6th largest economy
compared to the EU area in 2009
* Institutionalized economy fueled by over USD 83 billion of FDI in
the last 7 years and ranked as the 15th most attractive FDI
destination for 2008-2010 (UNCTAD)
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
3
2. POPULATION
•A population of 73 million people
•Largest youth population compared with the EU
•Median age 28.8
•60 percent of the population under the age of 35
3. QUALIFIED LABOR FORCE
* Over 24.7 million young, well-educated and motivated
professionals
* 5th largest labor force compared with the EU
* Approximately 450,000 graduates from circa 150 universities
* Around 550,000 high school graduates, including one third from
vocational and technical high schools
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
4
4. CENTRALLY LOCATED
* A natural bridge between both East-West and North-South axes,
thus creating an efficient and cost effective outlet to major markets
* Easy access to 1.5 billion customers in Europe, Eurasia, the
Middle East and North Africa
* Access to multiple markets worth USD 22 trillion of GDP
5. ENERGY CORRIDOR AND TERMINAL OF EUROPE
* An important energy terminal and corridor in Europe connecting the
East and West
* As an energy transit country, Turkey currently has the capacity to
transport 121 million tons of oil to the world markets per annum. In the
near future, the annual transit capacity will increase to 221 million tons
of oil and 43 billion m³ of natural gas.
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
5
6. CUSTOMS UNION WITH THE EU SINCE 1996
* Customs Union with the EU since 1996, and Free Trade Agreements
(FTA) with 16 countries
* Accession negotiations with the EU since 2005
7. LARGE DOMESTIC MARKET
* 30 million internet users in 2009, up from 4 million in 2002
63 million GSM users in 2009, up from 23 million in 2002
* 44.4 million credit card users in 2009, up from 16 million in 2002
* Over 85 million airline passengers in 2009, up from 33 million in
2002
* 27.3 million international tourist arrivals in 2009, up from 13 million
in 2002
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
6
TURKISH ECONOMY IN THE WORLD...
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
7
World’s Biggest Economies
(GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity, Trillion Dolar, 2009)
Poland
Taiwan
Iran
Australia
Turkey
Indonesia
Canada
Spain
Korea
Mexico
Italy
Brazil
France
Russia
UK
Germany
India
Japan
China
US
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
12,0
14,0
16,0
* In 2010, it is estimated that with 1,040 billion USD, she reached 15th place
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
8
Europe’s Biggest Economies
(GDP based on Purchasing Power Parity, Trillion Dolar, 2009)
Switzerland
Austria
Greece
Sweden
Belgium
Netherlands
Poland
Turkey
Spain
Italy
France
United Kingdom
Germany
0,0
0,5
1,0
1,5
2,0
2,5
3,0
Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2010
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
9
GDP Developments of Some Regions and Countries (2010)
Source: IMF Outlook
 In Medium Term Program (2011-2013), it was predicted that Turkey will grow by 6.8%. According
to the IMF, Turkey is forecasted to grow by 7.8%.
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
10
Growth Forecasts for Some Economies
Source: IMF, OECD, European Commussion
Growth Forecasts for Some Countries and Country-Groups(%)
IMF
OECD
EU
Years
Turkey
Euro-zone
USA
Brazil
Russia
India
China
2010
7.8
1.7
2.6
7.5
4.0
9.7
10.5
2011
3.6
1.5
3.0
4.5
4.5
8.4
9.6
2012
3.7
1.7
2.7
4.1
4.4
8
9.5
2010
8.2
1.7
2.7
7.5
3.7
9.1
10.5
2011
5.3
1.7
2.2
4.3
4.2
8.2
9.7
2010
7.5
0.9
2.8
5.7
3.7
8.1
10.3
2011
5.5
1.5
2.5
4.5
4
8
9.4
According to the IMF, Turkey will not be heavily affected by the European debt crisis,
OECD forecasts a positive outlook for Turkey
It will take time for private investment to reach pre-crisis level,
Turkey is one of the fastest growing economies in 2010.
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
11
Comparison of Europe and Turkey:
Real GDP Growth (2001=100)
160
150
140
130
120
110
100
Turkey
Portugal
April 2011
Hungary
Italy
Poland
Euro Area
10 Q3
10 Q1
09 Q3
09 Q1
08 Q3
08 Q1
07 Q3
07 Q1
06 Q3
06 Q1
05 Q3
05 Q1
04 Q3
04 Q1
03 Q3
03 Q1
02 Q3
02 Q1
01 Q3
01 Q1
00 Q3
00 Q1
90
Spain
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
12
Average Inflation in Periods (%)
80
71.6
70
62.7
60
50
40
30
20
11.8
10
4.2
0
1983-94
1995-2001
2002-2010
2011 Feb
Source: TURKSTAT, CBRT
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
13
FOREIGN TRADE DEVELOPMENTS OF TURKEY...
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
14
Annual Exports (Billion USD)
150
132,0
125
113,9 115,6
107,3
102,1
100
85,5
73,5
75
63,2
47,3
50
36,1
25
0
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010 2011*
(*) Annualized as of January 2011
Source: TURKSTAT
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
Foreign Trade Developments
2009 - 2010 / Jan. 2011
Yearly (Billion Dollars) Change (%) January (Million Dollars) Change (%)
2009
2010
10/09
2010
2011
11/10
Exports (FOB)
102.1
113.9
11.5
7,830
9,561
22.1
Energy Exports
3.9
4.5
15.0
303
533
76.0
Exports of Gold
4.6
2.1
-55.3
146
27
- 81.4
Imports (CIF)
140.9
185.5
31.6
11,691
16,873
44.3
Energy Imports
29.9
38.5
28.7
2,846
3,733
31.2
Trade Volume
243.1
299.4
23.2
19,521
26,434
35.4
Trade Balance
-38.8
-71.6
84.5
-3,859
-7,312
89.4
Trade Balan. excluding energy
-12.8
-37.6
193.6
-1,316
-4,112
212.3
Exports / Imports (%)
72.5
61.4
66.98
56.66
Source: Turkstat
In January 2011 compared with the same month in 2010,
Exports and imports increased by 22,1% and 44,3% respectively.
Trade deficit reached to 7,3 billion dollars , rising by 89,4%.
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
16
Exports in Main Categories
Source:Turkstat
ISIC: International Standard Industrial Classification
(Million Dollars)
AGRICULTURE AND FORESTRY
FISHERY
MINING AND QUARRYING
MANUFACTURING
MOTOR VEHICLES
WEARING APPAREL, EXCEPT FUR APPAREL
BASIC IRON AND STEEL
BASIC PRECIOUS AND OTHER NON-FERROUS
METALS
REFINED PETROLEUM PRODUCTS
OTHER TEXTILES
PARTS AND ACCESSORIES FOR MOTOR VEHICLES
SPINNING, WEAVING AND FINISHING OF TEXTILES
DOMESTIC APPLIENCES
KNITTED AND CROCHETED APPAREL
OTHER MANUFACTURING GOODS
OTHERS
April 2011
2009
2010
4.347
4.941
189
156
1.683
2.677
95.449 105.518
9.820 10.874
9.498 10.455
9.081 10.235
6.022
4.228
3.647
4.189
3.420
3.934
2.856
3.706
3.199
3.577
2.940
3.428
3.062
3.397
474
639
102.129 113.930
10/09
Change
(%)
JANUARY
2010
2011
CHANGE(%)
13,6
-17,5
59,0
10,5
10,7
10,1
12,7
437
148
10
7.181
867
851
512
486
215
19
8.784
849
933
840
11,2
45,7
88,0
22,3
-2,0
9,6
64,0
-29,8
14,9
15,0
29,7
11,8
16,6
10,9
34,8
11,5
288
273
141
266
270
244
198
474
221
505
162
334
326
301
223
639
-23,2
84,7
14,5
25,6
20,6
23,4
12,3
34,8
7.831
9.561
22,1
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
17
Imports in Main Categories
BEC: Broad Economic Categories
2010
CAPITAL GOODS
21,643
28,820
INTERMEDIATE GOODS
99,510
131,397
32.04
8,756
12,505
42.82
Industrial supplies not elsewhere specified, processed
43,491
58,720
35.02
3,790
5,692
50.2
Fuels and lubricants, primary
17,772
22,227
25.07
1,710
2,505
46.5
Fuels and lubricants, processed
10,848
14,670
35.23
1,032
1,073
4.0
Industrial supplies not elsewhere specified, primary
7,984
12,255
53.49
742
1,240
67.1
Parts and accessories of transport equipment
7,840
10,556
34.64
633
874
38.1
Parts and accessories of capital goods
8,291
9,059
9.26
585
722
23.4
Food and beverages, primary, mainly for industry
2,074
2,794
34.72
183
242
32.2
Food and beverages, processed, mainly for industry
1,206
1,112
-7.79
77
154
100.0
19,289
24,734
28.23
1,356
2,000
47.49
666
546
-18.02
17
101
494.1
16,873
30.7
(Million Dollars)
CONSUMPTION GOODS
OTHERS
TOTAL
April 2011
140,928 185,4973
31.6
JANUARY
2010
2011
1,560
2,265
Change
%
45.19
11,690
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
18
Source: Turkstat
2009
10/09
Change
%
33.16
Main Trade Partners (January 2011)
The Main Export
Destinations (January 2011)
Germany
The Main Import Partners
(January 2011)
10,4
Russia
Italy
6,6
China
Iraq
6,3
Germany
England
5,9
France
(Billion Dollars)
April 2011
5
9,5
8,3
USA
5,4
0
12
7,4
Iran
10
15
5,2
0
5
10
15
(Billion Dollars)
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
19
Breakdown of Exports by Regions
January
Million Dollars
EUROPE (TOTAL)
EUROPEAN UNION (EU_27)
OTHER EUROPE
AFRICAN COUNTRIES
North African Countries
Other African Countries
AMERICA
North American Countries
Mid. Amer. and Caribbean Count.
South American Countries
ASIAN COUNTRIES
Near and Mid. East Countries
Other Asian Countries
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND
OTHER COUNTRIES
TOTAL
January-December
2010
2011
Change (%)
2009
2010
Change (%)
4,624
5,401
16.8
58,331
64,043
9.8
3,939
685
681
554
127
361
269
25
67
1,976
1,421
555
30
4,525
876
751
523
228
512
349
84
80
2,662
2,053
609
32
14.9
27.9
10.3
-5.5
79.5
41.9
29.7
232.6
19.5
34.7
44.5
9.8
8.4
47,013
11,318
10,155
7,416
2,739
4,878
3,579
622
678
25,898
19,193
6,706
362
52,659
11,384
9,299
7,041
2,258
6,083
4,248
598
1,237
31,887
23,315
8,572
403
12
0.6
-8.4
-5.1
-17.6
24.7
18.7
-3.9
82.4
23.1
21.5
27.8
11.3
159
201
26.4
2,518
2,185
-13.2
7,831
9,561
22.1
102,143
113,899
11.5
Source: Turkstat
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
20
Exports by Some Country Groups
Million Dollars
Yearly
January
2010
Share (%)
2010
Share (%)
2011
Share (%)
Neighbouring and
Surrounding Countries
49,168
43.2
3,173
40.5
4,030
42.2
African Countries
9,299
8.2
680
8.7
751
7.9
Asia-Pacific Countries
6,549
5.7
458
5.8
492
5.1
South American Countries
1,237
1.1
67
0.9
80
0.8
OECD Countries
59,303
52.1
4,377
55.9
5,025
52.6
Commonwealth of
Independent States
11,064
9.7
603
7.7
923
9.7
Turkic Republics
3,922
3.4
213
2.7
304
3.2
Organization of Islamic
Conference
32,502
28.5
2,081
26.6
2,723
28.5
 Neighbouring and Surrounding Countries are the main export partners
 While exports to African countries declined, exports to CIS increased significantly
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
21
Breakdown of Imports by Regions
(Million Dollar)
Yearly
January
2009
2010
Change (%)
2010
2011
Change (%)
82,474
102,516
24.3
6,563
8,819
34.4
EUROPEAN UNION (EU_27)
56,588
72,215
27.6
4,213
5,713
35.6
OTHER EUROPE
25,886
30,301
17.1
2,350
3,106
32.1
AFRICAN COUNTRIES
5,700
6,412
12.5
407
718
76.6
North African Countries
3,542
4,304
21.5
302
382
26.4
Other African Countries
2,158
2,108
-2.3
105
336
221.4
12,275
16,798
36.8
987
1,647
66.9
9,513
13,234
39.1
768
1,319
71.7
476
622
30.7
30
87
188.7
2,286
2,943
28.7
189
242
28.2
38,733
57,508
48.5
3,551
5,558
56.5
Near and Mid. East Countries
9,595
16,094
67.7
946
1,611
70.3
Other Asian Countries
29,138
41,414
42.1
2,605
3,947
51.5
648
493
-23.9
38
33
-12.9
1,098
1,766
60.9
86
30
-65.5
140,928
185,493
31.6
11,691
16,873
44.3
EUROPE (TOTAL)
AMERICA
North American Countries
Mid. Amer. and Caribbean Count.
South American Countries
ASIAN COUNTRIES
AUSTRALIA AND NEW ZEALAND
OTHER COUNTRIES
TOTAL
Source: Turkstat
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
22
Foreign Trade in Currencies
2009
(%)
January
2010
2010
Exports
Imports
US Dollar
45.9
60.2
45.0
60.7
41.9
Euro
48.0
34.8
47.7
33.2
TL
2.1
2.8
2.3
Sterling (GBP)
3.3
0.6
Others
0.7
1.6
2011
Exports Imports Exports Imports
Exports
Imports
65.3
43.8
65.6
51.5
30.4
49.5
30.1
3.1
2.2
2.9
2.4
2.7
3.2
0.5
3.5
0.5
3.3
0.4
0.9
1.3
0.8
1.0
1.1
1.3
The share of exports in Euros and the share of imports in Dollars are higher.
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
23
Developments in Real Exchange Rates
170
160
2002=100
150
140
130
120
110
100
90
2002
2003
2004
2005
Real Exchange Rate of TL vis-a-vis Dollar
2006
2007
2008
2009
Real Exchange Rate of TL vis-a-vis Euro
Turkish Lira’s real appreciation against dollar and euro was 49.1% and 14% respectively in
the period of 2002-2009.
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
24
TRADE WITH FINLAND...
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
25
Foreign Trade of Finland
YEAR
IMPORTS
(000.000 €)
%
CHANGE
EXPORTS
(000.000 €)
%
BALANCE
CHANGE
(000 €)
2006
55 252
+ 17
61 489
+ 17
+ 6 236
2007
59 492
+8
65 484
+7
+ 5 991
2008
62 402
+5
65 580
+0
+ 3 178
2009
43 655
- 31
45 063
- 32
+ 1 409
2010
51 500
+ 17,9
52 372
+16,2
873
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
26
Main Trade Partners of Finland
COUNTRY
2010 IMPORTS
(1000 €)
Share
(%)
2010 Exports
(1000 €)
Share
(%)
Balance
1
Russia
9 163
17,8
4 689
9,0
-4 474
2
Germany
6 836
13,3
5 264
10,1
-1 571
3
Sweden
5 220
10,1
5 987
11,4
767
4
China
3 776
7,3
2 687
5,1
-1 089
5
Nederlands
2 798
5,4
3 545
6,8
747
6
USA
1 767
3,4
3 672
7,0
1 905
7
UK
1 603
3,1
2 504
4,8
901
8
France
2 012
3,9
1 775
3,4
-237
9
Italy
1 429
2,8
1 365
2,6
-63
10
Belgium
1 223
2,4
1 518
2,9
295
Other
Countries
15 675
30,4
19 366
37,0
TOTAL
51 500
100
52 372
100
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
3 691
873
27
Major Import Items of Finland in 2010
No
April 2011
CN Code Definition
Value
(1000 €)
1
27
MINERAL FUELS, OILS, WAXES
2
84
MACHINERY & MECHANICAL APPLIANCES,
COMPUTERS
3
85
4
72
IRON & STEEL
2 246 621
5
39
PLASTICS & ARTICLES THEREOF
1 750 818
ELECTRICAL MACHINERY & EQUIP. & PARTS
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
9 488 041
5 514 381
5 384 907
28
Major Export Items of Finland in 2010
No
CN
Code
1
48
2
84
Definition
PAPER & PAPERBOARD, ARTICLES OF
PAPER PULP
Value
(1000 €)
7 412 046
MACHINERY & MECHANICAL
APPLIANCES, COMPUTERS
7 190 426
3
85
ELECTRICAL MACHINERY & EQUIP. &
PARTS
6 457 518
4
5
April 2011
27
72
MINERAL FUELS, OILS, WAXES
IRON & STEEL
4 210 964
3 530 788
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
29
Foreign Trade
Between Turkey and Finland ($)
YEAR
April 2011
EXPORTS
IMPORTS
2003
214.069.330
479.864.643
2004
256.331.251
708.289.838
2005
296.560.810
962.032.069
2006
359.278.544
1.138.911.037
2007
412.409.563
1.208.411.748
2008
367.128.066
1.180.798.750
2009
196.622.349
795.958.841
2010
296.093.371
1.115.496.426
2011
(January)
21.778.440
71.719.271
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
30
First 10 Items Exporting from Turkey to
Finland in 2010
EXPORTS $
CN
CODE
April 2011
DEFINITION
to Finland
%
SHARE
87
VEHICLES OTHER THAN RAILWAY OR
TRAMWAY
69.154.166
23,3
26
ORES SLAG & ASH
39.733.554
13,4
84
MACHINERY & MECHANICAL APPLIANCES,
COMPUTERS
29.587.026
9,9
61
ARTICLES OF APPAREL & CLOTHING
ACCESSORIES
19.329.339
6,5
85
ELECTRICAL MACHINERY & EQUIP. & PARTS,
15.654.180
5,2
69
CERAMIC PRODUCTS
11.047.399
3,7
27
MINERAL FUELS, OILS, WAXES
9.049.708
3,0
63
MADE-UP TEXTILE ARTICLES
8.939.940
3,0
40
RUBBERS & ARTICLES THEREOF
8.786.196
2,9
28
INORGANIC CHEM, ORG/INORG COMPOUNDS
7.912.044
2,6
29
ORGANIC CHEMICALS
1.899.207
0,6
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
31
First 10 Items Imported from Finland to
Turkey in 2010
IMPORTS $
CN CODE
85
from
Finland
%
SHARE
ELECTRICAL MACHINERY & EQUIP. & PARTS,
307.076.320
28%
48
PAPER & PAPERBOARD, ARTICLES OF PAPER
PULP
263.872.169
24%
84
MACHINERY & MECHANICAL APPLIANCES,
COMPUTERS
140.235.240
13%
IRON & STEEL
90.731.487
8%
PULP OF WOOD, WASTE & SCRAP OF PAPER
72.045.762
6%
39
PLASTICS & ARTICLES THEREOF
61.396.862
6%
30
PHARMACEUTICAL PRODUCTS
39.474.589
4%
ORGANIC CHEMICALS
17.805.269
2%
FURSKINS & ARTIFICIAL FUR, MANUFACTURES
15.478.066
1%
OPTICAL, PHOTOGRAPHIC, MEDICAL
INSTRUMENTS
13.913.203
1%
72
47
29
43
90
April 2011
NAME
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
32
THANK YOU!...
April 2011
Embassy of Turkey, Office of the Commercial Counsellor
33