Transcript Fire Risk Assessment Tools in LMS.

Bringing stand level fire risk to
the landscape level: Fire risk
assessment using FFE-FVS
with the Landscape
Management System.
Kevin Ceder
And
James McCarter
Western Mensurationists Meeting
22 June 2004
Overview
• Landscape organization
– Stands and larger scale considerations
• Overview of the Landscape
Management System
• Examples of fire risk analysis using
LMS with FFE-FVS and LMS-FFE Add
On
Stands: The typical analysis
unit
• A unit to create a
unique area with
relatively uniform
characteristics
– Vegetation type
– Disturbance history
• Data collected at a
stand level
• Tools developed to
use stand level data
– Growth models
– Fire behavior and
effects models
Landscape: Ecological and
Ownership Level
• An assemblage of stands
• Planning and management
on ownerships occur at a
multi-stand or landscape
scale
• Wildlife often ignore stand
boundaries and will use a
multi-stand area
• Disturbances can operate
at a multi-stand level
– Wind: ’21 Blow on
Olympic Peninsula
– Fire: Biscuit fire
Fires can work at landscape
level
Scaling from Stand to
Landscape
• Need to assess at larger than stand
scale, but we know the most about
inventory at the stand level
• The Landscape Management System
(LMS) brings together stand level
growth models and stand level tree
lists and aggregates them into a
landscape for growth, treatment, and
analysis with a user-friendly
interface.
The Landscape
Management System
• A platform that
bring together
numerous
programs
– Growth models
– Stand and
landscape
visualization
– Stand treatment
programs
– Analysis tables
LMS Components
LMS Interface
LMS Portfolio:
Data Files
Site and
Topographic
data
Growth Simulation
Analysis Tables
FVS
Over 50
analysis
tables
ORGANON
Other Models
Tree List
Inventories
Spatial Data
(optional)
Visualization
Treatment and
Disturbance
Simulation
SVS
EnVision
LMS Data Requirements
• Stand level information
– Site quality variables, age, area
• Tree inventory information
– “tree list” (individual tree data with expansion
factors), Need Species, Diameter, and TPA, better to
also have Height and Crown ratio
• Spatial information (for landscape
analysis and visualization)
– Need elevation model (USGS DEM, SDTS, ESRI
ASCII Grid – converted to PC-Plans DTM format),
map of stand boundaries (ERSI shapefile or MOSS
file), can add other spatial features (roads, streams,
trails, etc)
Alternative Strategies for
Design, Layout, and
Administration of Fuel Removal
Projects
•Fremont National Forest
•502 plots
•928,499 forested acres
•Okanogan National Forest
•413 plots
•763,885 forested acres
Thinning prescriptions
1)
2)
3)
4)
5)
6)
Remove 9” and below
Remove 50% Basal Area (BA) from below
Leave 45 ft2/acre BA from below
Remove 12” and greater
Wildfire Simulation
No Action
Forest Condition 2000
2010
Below 9”
Below 50% BA
Below 45 ft^2 BA
2035
Forest Condition 2000
2010
Above 12”
Wildfire
No action
2035
Okanogan high risk with regen
Risk reduction performance
of Half BA and BA 45
treatments may result from the
addition of 10-12” DBH trees
to what otherwise is the 9”&
Under treatment.
Stands where 9”&Under is
effective can be identified.
Simulations with regeneration
demonstrate the need for future
controlled burns or thinnings.
LMS-FFE Add On: Linking
fire tools into LMS
• All variants of the Fire and Fuels Extension (FFE) for
the Forest Vegetation Simulator (FVS) growth model
• The LMS-FFE Configuration Tool
• LMS tables linked to FFE-FVS outputs
• The Fire Scoping Tool
– The Fire Scoping Report spreadsheet
– Risk Mapper ESRI ArcView project file
• The LMS-FFE Add-on is not installed with the main
LMS install and must be installed separately after
downloading from the LMS website:
http://lms.cfr.washington.edu/ or from the LMS CD.
Enabling FFE-FVS in LMS
LMS - Fire Scoping Interface
• Used to View FFE
Variable Distributions
• Select potential fire
weather conditions
• Select risk
classification variable
and thresholds
• Create graphical and
tabular or map output
Example of Using LMS with
FFE
• ColvilleExam portfolio
– Section of South Deep watershed on Colville NF
– Portfolio is installed with LMS
• Treat all stands removing all trees <9” DBH
in 2005
• Simulate prescribed fire in 2010
• Examine fire risk and risk change with Fire
Scoping Tool
– Risk Scoping Report
– Risk Mapper
Location of Colville Exam
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
NE Washington
4344 ac
125 stands
3039 – 4789 feet
Mixed conifer
QMD 1 – 9”
55 stands with
SDI >=350
Steps
• Set up simulations
– Scenario file for LMS
– Set prescribed fire year and conditions
• Run simulations
• Initial conditions and risk
classification variable examination
• Select risk variable and limits
• Fire scoping to assess risk
Risk Classification: Which
Variable?
• Fire Scoping Tool allows use of 5 FFE output
variables
–
–
–
–
–
Crowning Index
Torching Index
Fire Type
Flame Length
% BA Mortality
• Limits for risk class can be set for local
conditions
• FFE Variable Distribution report lets user examine
distributions to choose appropriate variable and
class limits
Choosing Risk Classification:
FFE Variable Distributions
Initial Risk Conditions
Crowning Index:
High: <25
Moderate: 25 - 50
Low: >50
BA Mortality:
High: >50%
Moderate: 15 – 50%
Low: <15%
Initial Risk Conditions
• Set variable and limits in Fire
Scoping Tool
• Run Scoping with output to
Spreadsheet
• Fire Risk graphs and tables created
in Fire Scoping spreadsheet
Fire Risk Graphs and Tables
• Fire conditions
• Fire risk distributions
• Stand attribute
distributions
segmented by risk
class:
–
–
–
–
–
–
–
Elevation
QMD
TPA
BA
SDI
Dominant species
Stand structure
• FFE variable
distributions
segmented by risk
class
–
–
–
–
–
–
Crowning index
Torching index
% BA mortality
Flame length
Fire type
Canopy fuel base
height
– Canopy bulk density
Fire Risk Graphs
Did the Risk Change?
Why Did the Risk Change
Moved to Low risk:
Pre-treatment: CI=20
Post-treatment: CI=75
Still High Risk:
Pre-treatment: CI=18
Post-treatment: CI=21
Where is the risk?
Risk Mapping
• Custom ESRI ArcView project
designed to make maps from data
from LMS
• Python programs classify FFE output
data and creates input file for
mapping
Risk Mapping
Landscape Management System
FFE Output
Python Program
ESRI ArcView GIS
ArcView Map
Avenue Script
Conclusions…
• LMS brings stand level data and tools together in
a landscape context
• Stand level fire risk models are available and
becoming more mature and usable
• Integration of tools provide enhanced analytical
capability
• Stand level fire risk models don’t provide link
between stands (contagion)
• Landscape level fire risk models also available,
but need to be easier to use and access
information
• Easy to use interfaces required for use and
adoption of tools