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the outlook for energy: a view to 2030 Universiteit Twente, lunchlezing ExxonMobil 20 Mei 2009 Ton Jeen Benelux Environmental Advisor & SHE Team Lead This presentation includes forward-looking statements. Actual future conditions (including economic conditions, energy demand, and energy supply) could differ materially due to changes in technology, the development of new supply sources, political events, demographic changes, and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1 of ExxonMobil’s latest report on Form 10-K). This material is not to be reproduced without the permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation. the outlook for energy 100 countries 15 demand sectors 20 fuel types 2 global economics and energy 3 growing global energy demand 2005 2030 by fuel MBDOE 180 120 0.9% 2030 2005 1.8% 0.6% 60 2.3% 0.3% 2.2% 9.3% 0 Oil Coal Gas Biomass/ Other 4 Nuclear Hydro/ Geo Wind, Solar Efficiency & Biofuels Gain ExxonMobil and the world energy market Source: EM Financial Reports, IEA, Oil & Gas Journal 5 global energy demand & CO2 emissions energy demand CO2 emissions MBDOE billion tonnes 350 Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 1.2% 300 250 Wind Solar & Biofuels 40 IEA – Ref. Case Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 1.0% Biomass Hydro & Geo Nuclear 30 Coal Coal 200 20 150 Gas Gas 100 10 Oil 50 Oil 0 0 1980 2005 2030 1980 6 2005 2030 CO2 outlook by region United States European Union China billion tonnes billion tonnes billion tonnes 9 Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 -0.6% 9 Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 -0.6% 9 IEA – Ref. Case Average Growth / Yr. 2005 – 2030 2.1% IEA – Ref. Case 6 6 6 IEA – Ref. Case 3 0 3 1980 2005 2030 0 3 1980 2005 7 2030 0 1980 2005 2030 summary • economic progress, especially in developing countries continues to drive energy demand 35% higher • oil, gas and coal will remain predominant at ~80% of energy mix, even with significant growth in alternatives • CO2 emissions expected to rise globally, even with improved efficiency 8 the energy imperative 9 integrated set of solutions increase efficiency Technology mitigate emissions expand supply 10 Mitigate emissions: near-term, beyond 2030 and in the chain 11 making vehicles more efficient • efficiency and technological developments in vehicles are critical • we are developing vehicle technologies to improve fuel economy and reduce emissions breakthrough technologies advanced technologies for conventional vehicles advanced vehicles 12 on-board hydrogen reformer hydrogen production fuel cell stack exhaust electricity H2 fuel water future current target 13 energy efficiency – one quart at a time • Mobil 1 AFE: Lower-viscosity synthetic motor oil launched in April • can improve fuel economy by up to 2 percent versus most common motor oils • builds on ExxonMobil’s 30-year tradition of protecting against engine wear 14 reinventing your wheels • ExxproTM: ExxonMobil Chemical’s new tire lining technology • enables lighter, more durable tires • maintains proper air pressure longer than conventional tires • helps save fuel, creating fewer emissions 15 enhanced lithium ion batteries • ExxonMobil Chemical has developed new separator film for lithium-ion batteries • may be more cost-effective than current batteries, potentially resulting in more drivers opting for hybrid vehicles • improves safety, reliability and power of batteries for hybrid vehicles 16 capturing and storing CO2 17 Global Climate & Energy Project • an unprecedented alliance of scientists and companies over a 10-year period • focus on creating commercially viable low emissions technologies • projects at Stanford and in Europe, USA, Japan, Australia research projects include: • designing and fabricating solar cells with the goal of developing efficient and low-cost options to convert solar energy into electricity • exploring the science underlying the operation of fuel cells • approaches to the capture, separation and storage of carbon dioxide emissions 18 Global Energy Management System (GEMS) • Wereldwijd systeem ingevoerd in 2000 om energie-efficientie maatregelen te stimuleren • Processen optimaliseren • Wereldwijd delen + implementeren van ‘best practices’ • Investeringen voor grote, permanente verbeterslagen • Voorbeelden: • Warmte-Kracht-Koppeling • Warmte-integratie + warmteverlies herwinning projecten • Mogelijke projecten om raffinage- en chemie-energiegebruik wereldwijd met 15-20% te reduceren • > 50% reeds gerealiseerd • Kostenbesparing van ~$750m in 2006 • Resultaat: • Mogelijke CO2 reductie van ~8 miljoen ton/jaar • Benelux raffinaderijen behoren tot meest energie efficiente in Europa 19 Wat is Warmtekracht Koppeling ? 20 Voordelen van WKK 34% Efficiency SIMPLE CYCLE 34 % Electricity 80% Efficiency 1% Other 2% Other 18 % Stack Gas 65 % Stack Gas 50% Efficiency COMBINED CYCLE 34 % Electricity COGENERATION 50 % Electricity 46 % Process Heat • Energy efficiency 2% Other • Reduced CO2 20 % Stack Gas 28 % Condensed Steam • Cost savings • Secure supply 21 ExxonMobil WKK – Nu & Toekomst • ExxonMobil WKK capaciteit • Sinds 2004 investeerde ExxonMobil meer dan $1 miljard in WKK • 4.5 GW reeds geinstalleerd op 100+ WKK installaties in 30+ locaties • ~10 MT/jaar bespaarde CO2 uitstoot • Plannen om capaciteit te verdubbelen tegen 2015 • CO2 emissie reductie naar verwachting meer dan 20 MT/jaar MW 10.000 • Stabiel investeringsklimaat nodig 8.000 ExxonMobil WKK capaciteit (MW) Upstream 6.000 Downstream 4.000 2.000 0 1965 Estimates 22 1975 1985 1995 2006 2010 2015 Emissiebesparing door WKK’s van ExxonMobil is equivalent aan… ~500% van windopwekking in Nederland ~ 70% van windopwekking in Spanje ~ 45% van windopwekking in Duitsland ~ 55% van windopwekkin g in U.S.A. * Environmental Performance Equivalents Environmental Performance Equivalents 23 Nieuwe WKK Antwerpen • Project: • Gas gestookte GE 9E GTG (130 MW) • Additionele Heat Recovery Unit om stoom te genereren én ruwe olie voor te verwarmen • Belangrijke faciliterende factoren (‘Enablers’) • Balancering mechanisme en marktdeelname door contracten gezekerd • Geen transmissie issues met ISO Elia • Ondersteundend WKK beleid door Vlaamse autoriteiten 24 conclusion • population and economies will expand; energy demand and CO2 emissions will rise • integrated set of solutions required – increase efficiency – expand supply – mitigate emissions • technology breakthroughs are critical • meeting this demand will require a global effort 25 Dank voor jullie aandacht! 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